DeAndre Hopkins - Regression Likely?

[stonewall 647]

We all know full well what a stud he was last season, and his draft price certainly reflects that (1.11 in non-ppr & 1.09 ppr). However, isn't anyone else concerned that he is way overpriced this year?

 

My primary leeriness revolves around the fact that he has gravely disappointed us before. After a stellar 2015 season of 111/1521/11, he came back in 2016 with 78/954/4.....on 150 targets. Yes, he threw shade at Osweiller for his poor performance, but that is a significant letdown in conjunction with his ADP that year......as anyone who owned him knows well. A pick like that can literally ruin your draft.

 

Of course, last year he represented fantastic return on ADP value, but this year he is the 2nd WR off the board usually. Many people are sheepish about Watson repeating his outlandish #'s, but seem unconcerned about Hopkins.......who garnered an absurd 33% target share last season.

 

Yes, I assume that Hopkins will be a WR1 this year. However, his draft price is his ceiling.....going where guys like Fornette, Cook, and Hunt are going. Wouldn't it be wiser to grab one of these guys, and then snag a Adams or Allen coming back to you? Or even grab another RB like MCCaffery, and take a chance with a potential WR1 like Tyreek or Cooper (whose drafting price is their floor) in the 3rd......and backing that up with another potential WR1 like Hogan a couple rounds later?

 

Just thinking out loud...

[Smileseers 54]

I am not so sure with the premise that we know what Hopkins' ceiling is. He has never played a full season with an above average QB like Watson in his career. All first round draft picks come with a heavy price to justify a high ceiling and a high floor.

 

In PPR leagues he likely will lead the league in targets. If you draft Hopkins at his ADP you will have nice choices at the top of the second round.

[weepaws 2,452]

He avg 21 points per game with Watson and 20 without him.

 

That’s pretty darn good enough for the second best wr on anyone’s boards.

 

I think it just depends on ones own personal opinion if one should draft a rb in round one or go wr round one.

 

I’m in a non ppr league I’m going rb.

 

But if I was in a ppr league once again, I would have no problem drafting Hopkins in the first round.

 

Great question.

 

Thanks.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Id say regression isnt likely, but of course its possible. You could even argue him as top wr on the board.

[American Chewy 98]

I'll be staring at him with the 7th pick in .5 ppr. He represents the safest play for me, however my reason for prob going rb (Barkley, fornette, ect) will be what I'll be looking at the rest of the draft. Great wr options in mid 2nd and i really like all the wr options available later in like rounds 5 and 6. If I don't take a rb in 1st I'll have to reach for ones i like in 2nd like a howard/mixon type or else commit to zero rb. Just have a feeling this will be a yr everyone overeaches at rb esp in the 1st 3-4 rnds so I doubt there's any value left when I feel I NEED to get my rb. We only require 1 rb but it would feel great to lock that down in 1st then ignore it for 5 rnds if I so choose and maybe grab a top qb or te too.

 

So all this to say thanks for the write up, I will be battling this decision for a while. Stuff like this helps.