Is LeGarrette Blount being undervalued?

[Maulers1973 117]

Not sure what happened with that post?? ^^^

 

I tried to fix it.

 

Links do work though.

 

ETA: page flip, so the arrows don't make sense. Awesome!

[aggiewildlife 0]

I have him ranked as the 30th-ish RB (RB3) off the board at this point. He'll be 31 in December. He's coming off his best year as a pro which are the kind of players I try to stay away from unless they're top talent guys....which Blount is not. He only averaged 3.88 yards/carry on a team with a high powered passing attack and again that's 3.88 yards/carry in a year that was his best as a pro. I'll let others take him this year....hopefully that'll make me look smart at year's end.

Keep in mind that since so much of his work was in short-yardage situations/goal-line work, that his YPC will be somewhat deppressed. Also, as I pointed out earlier, no running back in the NFL faced more defenders in the box than did Blount last year, which also means his YPC is going to be deppressed relative to other RBs.

[IGotWorms 3,312]

It's only a "trap" if you're delusional enough to think he's still going to put up last year's production again this year and draft him in the first couple rounds, which nobody is doing. Some of you act like the "Pro-Blount" crowd think he's an RB1. We don't. I personally will be targeting him as my flex, not as my RB2, and hoping for RB2-level production.

RB2 would be nice. Some of us think he won't hit that. I think that's the point.

 

If the debate was really whether he was an RB1 then he'd be going in the 3rd round.

[tanatastic 2,061]

I foresee that one Toby Gerhart year for Blount. People just penciled Toby in for 1100 8 like it was written on the 10 commandments. Then the season starts and all math, speculation and logic goes out the window.

[aggiewildlife 0]

I foresee that one Toby Gerhart year for Blount. People just penciled Toby in for 1100 8 like it was written on the 10 commandments. Then the season starts and all math, speculation and logic goes out the window.

I don't see how the 2 situations are comparable. Gerhart never had more than 531 yards or 2 rushing TD's in a single season, so anybody that expected high-level production from him was naive. LeGarrette on the other hand, put up a TD total more than twice as many as Gerhart's put up in 6 total years.

[IGotWorms 3,312]

Keep in mind that since so much of his work was in short-yardage situations/goal-line work, that his YPC will be somewhat deppressed. Also, as I pointed out earlier, no running back in the NFL faced more defenders in the box than did Blount last year, which also means his YPC is going to be deppressed relative to other RBs.

Ask yourself: why did he see so many defenders in the box?

 

Nobody was afraid of Brady?

 

Or could it be that Blount is one dimensional, so any time he was on the field opposing defenses could bet it was a run.

 

That's why NE let him go - they didn't like being so predictable with him on the field.

 

How's that going to change in Philly? Blount suddenly turns into a great pass blocker and receiver? At this stage in his career?

 

Conversely Carson Wentz will be his QB now.

 

So if you think having too many defenders in the box was a problem - that probably ain't getting any better and now he's on a sh1ttier team with a MUCH sh1ttier QB.

[ralphster 274]

philly will use play action to decoy him, and it will be effective because their oline is so good.

 

at his current adp there is value, even in ppr. 12-15 touches/game, something like 900/6 as a floor. for an rb3 w upside of 1100/10?

 

He's going in the mid 6th. I'd rather have him than Ingram, CJA, Martin, AP, Gilislee, Perkins, Coleman - who are all going right around where Blount is.

[BLS 313]

philly will use play action to decoy him, and it will be effective because their oline is so good.

 

at his current adp there is value, even in ppr. 12-15 touches/game, something like 900/6 as a floor. for an rb3 w upside of 1100/10?

 

He's going in the mid 6th. I'd rather have him than Ingram, CJA, Martin, AP, Gilislee, Perkins, Coleman - who are all going right around where Blount is.

 

So your argument is he'll be a great decoy on GL so the Play Action is there; and that's justification to draft him?

 

Ummmm...no.

[tanatastic 2,061]

I don't see how the 2 situations are comparable. Gerhart never had more than 531 yards or 2 rushing TD's in a single season, so anybody that expected high-level production from him was naive. LeGarrette on the other hand, put up a TD total more than twice as many as Gerhart's put up in 6 total years.

Not comparing the players at all. I'm comparing the expectations and predicting a similar letdown.

[aggiewildlife 0]

Ask yourself: why did he see so many defenders in the box?

 

Nobody was afraid of Brady?

 

Or could it be that Blount is one dimensional, so any time he was on the field opposing defenses could bet it was a run.

 

That's why NE let him go - they didn't like being so predictable with him on the field.

 

How's that going to change in Philly? Blount suddenly turns into a great pass blocker and receiver? At this stage in his career?

 

Conversely Carson Wentz will be his QB now.

 

So if you think having too many defenders in the box was a problem - that probably ain't getting any better and now he's on a sh1ttier team with a MUCH sh1ttier QB.

Ask yourself: if Blount is one dimensional such that any time he was on the field opposing defenses could bet it was a run, how exactly did he score 18 TD's under these circumstances? He must be terrible

[ralphster 274]

 

So your argument is he'll be a great decoy on GL so the Play Action is there; and that's justification to draft him?

 

Ummmm...no.

At no point did I say anything about GL. Appreciate your input though.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

<p>You've ignored a few facts:<br />

<br />

 1. He ran behind a FB last year and wont this year</p><br />

 2. He went 2 for 18 on GL opportunities with Pitt that had a good offensive line<<br />

 3. He's learning a new system which based on your proclamation that he can be a knucklehead makes me believe he's no lock to secure 15-16 touches a game.<br />

 4. He'll turn 31 this season which is the wrong side of 30.<br />

<br />

Plus: ;I found this little nuggett on Number Fire;</p>

<p> </p>

<p>"<a href="https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/player-news/52579/legarrette-blount-underwhelming-at-eagles-camp">https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/player-news/52579/legarrette-blount-underwhelming-at-eagles-camp</a>"><a href="https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/player-news/52579/legarrette-blount-underwhelming-at-eagles-camp">https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/player-news/52579/legarrette-blount-underwhelming-at-eagles-camp</a></p>

<p> </p>

<p>and this one:</<br />

<br />

<a href="http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/eagles/philadelphia-eagles-legarrette-blount-20170817.html">http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/eagles/philadelphia-eagles-legarrette-blount-20170817.html</a><<br />

<br />

Maybe we're both wrong.  lol<br />

<br />

I don't trust him. </p>

 

You like to cherry pick the past, don't you? LOL

 

1. He never ran behind a FB in Tampa and played well... he just couldn't get his head out of his butt.

2. I have a correction to make. The 18 red zone attempts also included time in New England, my bad. He had 7 attempts in Pittsburgh inside the 10 yard line... and 2 TD's. 1 per 3.5 attempts. For reference, LeVeon Bell had 4 in 17 attempts, so 1 per 4.25 attempts. In that perspective, I think he did well.

3. Yes, he was a knucklehead, in TAMPA (which I specifically made note of the first time). Last year he got 299 attempts (18.7 per game). Now, was that because it was his 3rd season in New England? I don't know. What I do know is that in his first go around with that Pats, he got 60 carries in 5 games (only 1 which he started), so he still managed 12 rushes per game. We know it went up to almost 14 attempts per game in 2015. Again, was it familiarity with the playbook or talent? I'm inclined to believe it was talent because he went to New England and in his very first game there, he had 12 carries for 78 yards and 2 scores.

4. Yes, he will be 31 this season... in December. So if he's going to be on the wrong side of 30 after 13 games... I'm ok with that. Also, he's only touched the ball 1200 times in his career, so it's not like he's worn down by hits.

5. Blount was NEVER good in practice, so that doesn't concern me. I also never said he was a short yardage specialist, my point about goal line carries was that there isn't anyone on the team to vulture them from him.

 

To me, your concerns are fine, but minor because there is absolutely no one in Philly who's going to challenge him for touches... between the 20's and inside them. I think the Eagles are going to be a really good team this year and could win 10 or 11 games. That means, they're going to be in the lead a lot and will likely run the ball more. More rushes = more Blount. As I said before, if you don't like him, don't draft him. I'm not trying to convince you or anyone to like him, I'm just telling you what I see and why I see it. Nothing more, nothing less.

[Maulers1973 117]

He sure looked good last night.

[TBayXXXVII 2,117]

He sure looked good last night.

 

Yup. I thought he looked great. Well, I need to correct that. I was watching the Tampa / Jacksonville game, not the Eagles game. Compared to Fournette who didn't even dress (a guy that people are taking as an RB2), Blount looked great... because he actually did play.

[murf74 461]

Where has Smallwood been in these games

[Maulers1973 117]

Where has Smallwood been in these games

 

I think he's nursing a tweaked hammy. I think they want him to become something. Every time he starts to look good, he gets hurt.

[seafoam1 1,879]

Well, given his preseason looks, he could only be over valued at this point.

[pabstbluribbin 1]

Is Sproles the guy to own now in Philly? Even in Standard leagues? I'm struggling to see any value in Blount around the 5th or 6th round when Sproles can be had for free at this point.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Sproles def the play. What does he cost. Blount likely being rolled with just tobbacco.

 

Pass

[The Postman 3]

Those are great points.

[Kent 228]

Sproles def the play. What does he cost. Blount likely being rolled with just tobbacco.

 

Pass

I feel like Sproles has been on a steady decline.

[Matt Mueller 146]

I feel like Sproles has been on a steady decline.

His 2015 numbers were a little depressed but he had a 4.7 YPC and 8.2 YPR last year based off career averages of 4.9 and 8.7

 

He is what he is at this stage though. Can't really expect anything more than a handful of tds, 50 catches and maybe 1K total yards but where is ADP is sure...

[MDC 5,890]

 

Ryan Matthews in 13 games last year only caught 13 passes (14 targets), as Sproles was the pass catcher. Sproles is still there and instead of handing the reigns over to Smallwood, Barner, or Marshall, the Eagles only went out and added Blount. The Eagles ran the ball average of about 24 times per game (from RB's), with an average of 4.3 ypc. If Blount gets 18 carries at that average (which I think he will... if not be better), you're looking at 77 yards per game - which translates to almost 1240 yards. So, lets cut his carries down to 15 and only 4 ypc, thats still 960 yards. To me, one is the ceiling, one is the floor. The average 1100 yards. Matthews, in his limited time, got 8 rushing TD's - in 155 attempts. You don't think that at 15 carries per game... 240 attempts over the season, Blount won't get at least 8 scores? Who do you think is going to get the TD's, yards, and attempts? Certainly Sproles will get his share, but one of Smallwood, Barner, or Marshall won't make the team... unless they bail on the draft pick. Even if the Eagles carry every RB (6 total), none of them are goal line caliber backs like Blount is. If you look at the year that Maulers claims that Blount was "a dud", he had 18 goal line carries... which is higher than what every other RB on the current Eagles roster (aside from Sproles)... combined... for their career. If you go career totals, then Blount's is higher than everyone's (including Sproles), combined... for their career's.

 

To me, I think 1100 yards and 12 TD's is a realistic possibility. That'll get him what, 182 fantasy points. I'd give him about 18 points worth of receiving production over the course of the season to hit the 200 point mark. That's a mid RB2 guy. I'll take him in RD 4 if I went with 2 WR's and a RB in my first 3 picks.

 

If Blount gets 240 carries this year he may only end up with 1,000 or so yards and 8 TDs anyway. I think you underestimate the massive downgrade in O from the Patriots to the Eagles, and you overestimate Blount. He averaged less than 4 YPC rushing for among the best offenses in the league last year. He has also looked totally ineffective in limited time this preseason. That's not entirely his fault - the OL has been missing players to injury and the interior line actually isn't that good. But it's still the situation Blount finds himself in. He won't get nearly the same # of goal line chances on this team.

 

There's been some speculation he gets cut. I doubt that happens but I also doubt he's going to outperform his ADP. By the end of the year I expect a full blown RBBC with Smallwood / Clement and Sproles all taking carries. This is not an O that's going to give the rock to Blount 20+ times per game.

[Phil Simms 11 127]

I keep ending with him in mocks, now he is dropping a bit due to the fake claims of being cut. Great value RB 2 late in drafts. RB 2 that you have in your flex or bench spot.

[Matt Mueller 146]

I think Blount could be on more waiver wires than starting lineups this season.

 

I'll take a pass

[Matt Mueller 146]

Wendell Smallwood - RB - Eagles

Philly Voice's Jimmy Kempski suggests Wendell Smallwood could win the Eagles' starting running back job.

Kempski calls it a "surprise development," but perhaps one Smallwood has earned by being "the best back in camp by a significant margin." While Smallwood beating out LeGarrette Blount now looks like a serious possibility, regardless of who wins the "starting job," Darren Sproles is likely to lead the backfield in touches. Blount is now looking like a fantasy pick to avoid.

Source: Philly Voice

Aug 21 - 3:09 PM

[Ray_T 590]

Sproles def the play. What does he cost. Blount likely being rolled with just tobbacco.

 

Pass

Dude, Sproles is 34 years old. Last years numbers are the maximum upside you can expect from him.

 

More likely I'd expect to see similar numbers to 2014 and/or 2015.

 

300 yards rushing, 300-400 yards receiving. He's not a starting fantasy RB anymore.

 

In PPR he's an adequate backup because of the number of passes he catches.

[Ray_T 590]

 

Wendell Smallwood - RB - Eagles

Philly Voice's Jimmy Kempski suggests Wendell Smallwood could win the Eagles' starting running back job.

Kempski calls it a "surprise development," but perhaps one Smallwood has earned by being "the best back in camp by a significant margin." While Smallwood beating out LeGarrette Blount now looks like a serious possibility, regardless of who wins the "starting job," Darren Sproles is likely to lead the backfield in touches. Blount is now looking like a fantasy pick to avoid.

Source: Philly Voice

Aug 21 - 3:09 PM

 

This is the guy to keep an eye on.

 

as far as I am concerned it's gonna be him... or blount.

[MDC 5,890]

It would help Smallwood if he could get onto the field. The Eagles best RB this fr has probably been Corey Clement.

 

This backfield will likely produce a 3/4 guy (Blount) but mostly it's a fantasy wasteland.