Instant Fantasy Analysis - RB Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys

[nobody 2,038]

I think this whole runningback aren't worth a high pick thing is getting blown out of proportion. If you're not a believer in anyone else, and can't trade down and you think the guy is a once in a decade guy, just take him.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I think this whole runningback aren't worth a high pick thing is getting blown out of proportion. If you're not a believer in anyone else, and can't trade down and you think the guy is a once in a decade guy, just take him.

Not a believer in anyone else? At pick 4 all the good players are gone? He is not that good, no way. I dont think he is Todd Gurley. Plus Dallas is in win now mode and then took a player who will not play this year in round 2. So their defense of Elliot as a win now player is crap.

[sirensong 111]

the smith pick on the heels of the elliott pick is indeed weird, but if cooper (DAL team doctor who did the surgery) is correct, then DAL traded the 34th pick this season for a top-5 pick next season. would have been much, much happier seeing this pick in the 3rd, but after ogbah and dodd fell off the board, it's not altogether unreasonable. pre-injury, smith was ranked higher than ramsey or jack by a number of analysts.

[Pecos Rattlers 5]

I don't think the #34 pick is necessarily bad (hey I want more defenders!) - it's the combination that strikes me as odd.

 

I also really don't think the Cowboys are good enough that a single player is gonna get them back to the superbowl .. so they should just take the maximum value they can get, instead of zeroing in on first year impact. To me, that means take a top tier player at a position that is historically hard to obtain (DE, CB, OT, QB) and lock them into a long rookie contract so we can spend cap dollars elsewhere. Given that we also have actual needs at CB & DE makes their decision all the more painful.

 

Instead, they took a player at a commodotized position which is also not a need for the team (though certainly we improved upon our current RBs). It's also a position where teams have been able to sign veterans to modest contracts and get excellent value out of them. In fact .. we just .. did that. While DMC is not my favorite RB, his contract is an amazing value compared to Brandon Carr's original free agent contract with us!

[sirensong 111]

you're not wrong, but a major issue is that pretty much everyone in the NFL projects ramsey as a S, not a CB. so you're either drafting a S at 4 (which most people would say is a terrible misallocation of draft resources), or you're drafting a guy to play out of his natural position...on a defense with no proven pass rush. if the DAL defense was one player away from being good, then yeah--passing on ramsey would be stupid. if there was an elite edge rusher available at 4, then yeah--they would be stupid to draft elliott. if aaron donald or JJ watt is on the board, you grab either of them without looking back.

 

but none of these conditions apply. and CB is a quirky position--you might get patrick peterson, but you might get morris claiborne. even if you get peterson, he's not going to be able to elevate the whole defense. an edge rusher can do that, but a CB can't. deion sanders is arguably the best pure cover man in the history of the NFL...but charles haley was more important to the '90s team than deion was.

 

given that, then passing on a safety who can play CB in favor of elevating the offense to a dominant level is a very reasonable course of action.

[ralphster 274]

Pretty much agree with everything pecos said. The Cowboys screwed the pooch in this draft according to immediate team needs.

[Pecos Rattlers 5]

I agree that a S at 4 isn't great value, but I believe Jalen can play both S and CB at an extremely high level. I'm sure some teams think he is better at one slot or the other, but the Jags are going to use him at CB according to jacksonville.com Supposedly Jalen and Zeke were the two players at the top of our draftboard, so it stands to reason that we considered him a CB as well.

 

Jalen Ramsey definitely wouldn't be enough to put the Dallas D over the top, but I am not advocating that the Cowboys draft with a "1 more player mentality". I think they should take the best value available as long they have a reasonable need at that position and incrementally improve over time. We also did take LB, DE and DL players in later rounds, so it's not like we got better at just 1 defensive spot. We also have two young DEs who could improve this year, though they each have their red flags & will be sitting out the first four games.

 

That being said, it's not like I think Zeke will be a bust. Gonna be fun to watch him run behind our line, even if I disagree with the draft strategy.

[weepaws 2,460]

Yea I agree about the Cowboys and their draft also .

 

I thought and had said they should go Qb .

 

But I'm good with the pick of Zeke, when it comes to fantasy football he is going to be a top flight pickup .

[sirensong 111]

I agree that a S at 4 isn't great value, but I believe Jalen can play both S and CB at an extremely high level. I'm sure some teams think he is better at one slot or the other, but the Jags are going to use him at CB according to jacksonville.com Supposedly Jalen and Zeke were the two players at the top of our draftboard, so it stands to reason that we considered him a CB as well.

 

Jalen Ramsey definitely wouldn't be enough to put the Dallas D over the top, but I am not advocating that the Cowboys draft with a "1 more player mentality". I think they should take the best value available as long they have a reasonable need at that position and incrementally improve over time. We also did take LB, DE and DL players in later rounds, so it's not like we got better at just 1 defensive spot. We also have two young DEs who could improve this year, though they each have their red flags & will be sitting out the first four games.

 

That being said, it's not like I think Zeke will be a bust. Gonna be fun to watch him run behind our line, even if I disagree with the draft strategy.

 

 

i'm with you on this, and would have been happier with something like ramsey/smith/booker. my point is merely that the elliott pick is very reasonable--it has cascading effects throughout the team structure that may more than offset the 'position of need' criterion.

[Pecos Rattlers 5]

That's true & I do loving watching top offenses play .. so I'm excited to see what Zeke can do for us. Hopefully between him and Dez it will take pressure off 2nd and 3rd receiving options that haven't been working out for us the last few years.

[Cruzer 1,992]

After having time to rationalize - my initial rage has settled somewhat.... I was fully willing to accept and get on board with the Zeke pick, provided we followed that up with immediate defensive focus. J. Smith is hardly immediate - and in fact, is a risk to never fully recover at all... I'm so sick and tired of this team dropping the ball and screwing up the middle rounds - it's exactly why we are always scrambling and filling in holes with just regular "guys". Given Romo's short term shelf life and given the fact we took Zeke, I would have never taken Smith at 2. Those picks are so damn valuable and yet we continue to squander them on (basically) useless players... Since 2010, S. Lee is the only one who really have amounted to anything. And hell, he's a part time player now anyway... And don't even get me started on G. Escobar.

 

But after the 2nd round fiasco, I was actually pretty happy to see some of the things we did... Was shocked, but very happy, to see us target a DT in the 3rd. I think Collins can be a real asset plugging up the middle. And of course, even if it was Prescott - glad to see us take at least 1 qb in this draft.

[Ray_T 590]

After having time to rationalize - my initial rage has settled somewhat.... I was fully willing to accept and get on board with the Zeke pick, provided we followed that up with immediate defensive focus. J. Smith is hardly immediate - and in fact, is a risk to never fully recover at all... I'm so sick and tired of this team dropping the ball and screwing up the middle rounds - it's exactly why we are always scrambling and filling in holes with just regular "guys". Given Romo's short term shelf life and given the fact we took Zeke, I would have never taken Smith at 2. Those picks are so damn valuable and yet we continue to squander them on (basically) useless players... Since 2010, S. Lee is the only one who really have amounted to anything. And hell, he's a part time player now anyway... And don't even get me started on G. Escobar.

 

But after the 2nd round fiasco, I was actually pretty happy to see some of the things we did... Was shocked, but very happy, to see us target a DT in the 3rd. I think Collins can be a real asset plugging up the middle. And of course, even if it was Prescott - glad to see us take at least 1 qb in this draft.

Well, it's a reasonably deep draft. They didnt really Need to take any chances. This is why Jack fell as far as he did. In a shallower draft he probably would have gone late in round 1 regardless of injury.

[sirensong 111]

After having time to rationalize - my initial rage has settled somewhat.... I was fully willing to accept and get on board with the Zeke pick, provided we followed that up with immediate defensive focus. J. Smith is hardly immediate - and in fact, is a risk to never fully recover at all... I'm so sick and tired of this team dropping the ball and screwing up the middle rounds - it's exactly why we are always scrambling and filling in holes with just regular "guys". Given Romo's short term shelf life and given the fact we took Zeke, I would have never taken Smith at 2. Those picks are so damn valuable and yet we continue to squander them on (basically) useless players... Since 2010, S. Lee is the only one who really have amounted to anything. And hell, he's a part time player now anyway... And don't even get me started on G. Escobar.

 

But after the 2nd round fiasco, I was actually pretty happy to see some of the things we did... Was shocked, but very happy, to see us target a DT in the 3rd. I think Collins can be a real asset plugging up the middle. And of course, even if it was Prescott - glad to see us take at least 1 qb in this draft.

 

 

word (from fish i think) is that after the lynch offer fell through, DAL was gunning for ogbah/dodd, with the idea of trading back into the late 2nd to grab smith. when the two DEs went back to back (and with spence reportedly off their board due to concerns about football character and personal character), they pulled the trigger on smith.

[Cruzer 1,992]

 

 

word (from fish i think) is that after the lynch offer fell through, DAL was gunning for ogbah/dodd, with the idea of trading back into the late 2nd to grab smith. when the two DEs went back to back (and with spence reportedly off their board due to concerns about football character and personal character), they pulled the trigger on smith.

Yea - that's what the word is.... What I'm mostly (still) pissed about is that this team's over evaluation of defensive talent and self worth. Jerry and Co. think that we are so loaded and stacked now that we can afford the luxury of firing our (high) 2nd round pick on a guy who not only won't play until 2017, but who might not ever fully recover and play at all.

 

When, not if, S. Lee goes down this year and when McClain either flies off his rocker or re-injures himself again, we are going to be trotting out some real fine crap in the LB corps. Hope our safeties have a phenomenal tackling year - bcoz they are going to get lots of opportunities.

[nobody 2,038]

 

 

word (from fish i think) is that after the lynch offer fell through, DAL was gunning for ogbah/dodd, with the idea of trading back into the late 2nd to grab smith. when the two DEs went back to back (and with spence reportedly off their board due to concerns about football character and personal character), they pulled the trigger on smith.

 

 

Wait? The Cowboys took someone off their board for character concerns? What did the guy do? Rape a bunch of nuns?

[Marshall 98]

 

 

Wait? The Cowboys took someone off their board for character concerns? What did the guy do? Rape a bunch of nuns?

 

I was wondering the same thing.

[thePRO 78]

One of the worst defenses in the league, draft a RB.. JERRY JERRY JERRY!

 

Last year they had the #17 total defense and went 4-12. In 2014, they had the #19 total defense and went 12-4. That's far from one the worst defenses in the league.

 

And how'd that work out for us? ..... Everyone keeps talking of taking a super back to replicate what Murray did, bcoz it kept the other offense off the field. That took 392 carries and near 1900 yards on the ground to accomplish that - all total, near 450 touches including pass catches... You really think and expect a back to come in here, repeat that and have it all be the same - really? You have extreme rose colored glasses if that's the case. Not only that - you are going to kill your rb in the process. After 2 or 3 years - this guy will be jelly.

 

The best way to stop the other offense is with a defense - getting them off the field on 3rd down is best way to do it. It's what most of the SB winners over the past several years have done, and it works.

 

For the record I was 1A Ramsey and 1B Elliot, but you're crazy if you think Elliot is going to have the Murray role. Yes, Elliot will be the man, but with the success that McFadden had this year, he'll still be handed some drives here and there.

 

You said earlier we needed a playmaker on defense, so is Ramsey and his 3 career interceptions really that guy to help us make plays? His combine #s mimic Byron Jones' numbers. I think Jones is going to be that guy for us this year that will step up and make plays. Not to mention Ramsey might not be a pure CB and was rumored to likely play the safety spot in the NFL or at least for the Cowboys. Once again, Jones did a pretty decent job as nickel corner last year. Jones might already be that guy to play safety. If Ramsey was considered 100% corner or have the ability to play SS while Jones played FS then yes, select the guy. Jones + Ramsey sounds beast. But they're virtually the same size with the same athletic attributes.

 

The truth is, is that we actually need a playmaker on offense and to really build up the front 7 on the d-line. Should an offensive playmaker take priority over our defensive needs? No, but who else besides Dez gives us any big play ability? If Romo goes down again, Elliot and a top 3 running game helps.

 

The biggest mistake of the draft was getting Smith at #34. Our following picks were a lot better, but Smith...ugh.

 

Whether you agree or not, I think the Elliot was a flashy, "win now" pick. Slowly, Dallas will try and build the defense up because after Romo is gone, we're in rebuild mode. I do think Jerry Jones is trying to copy the 2014 team with Murray. After all (in Jerry's eyes), it wasn't really the defense that cost us the game, but the Bryant incomplete pass that killed us.

[sirensong 111]

...after Romo is gone, we're in rebuild mode.

 

i disagree. let's say 3 more years for romo. that means his successor will immediately step behind one of the best lines in the league, with a top RB and top WR still under contract. the defense will have a pair of high-talent speed rushers, a very disruptive under tackle, very fast LBs, and an extremely intelligent, ultra-athletic FS.

 

that doesn't include guys like witten (who will likely retire along with romo) or lee (who has a chronic injury problem). it also ignores smith, since there's a chance he may not play at all.

[weepaws 2,460]

Wow I think 3 more seasons for Romo is going to be a reach .

 

He has the sign of a player that is breaking down .

[sirensong 111]

Wow I think 3 more seasons for Romo is going to be a reach .

 

He has the sign of a player that is breaking down .

 

 

not really. for QBs, 'breaking down' injuries are knees and shoulders. romo has had 2 season-ending injuries--both of them fractures of the easiest bone in the body to break. if you fall in a certain way, you're probably going to fracture your clavicle. his only injury of note was the herniated disk, and that's been fused. had that injury sapped arm strength, it would be a concern. but it hasn't--he still has a very live arm, and can still make all the throws even from unstable platforms or on the move (and he can move better now than guys like eli could at age 22).

 

if his knees, rotator cuff, or elbow start flaring up, we'll revisit this question. but bone breaks are not degenerative injuries.

[stonewall 647]

 

if his knees, rotator cuff, or elbow start flaring up, we'll revisit this question. but bone breaks are not degenerative injuries.

 

That is medically sound, Siren.....but I think this is different.

 

Romo's clavicle seems to be made of glass. Something just ain't right. I cannot envision him making it through the season without it happening again. Cowboy's would be wise to bring in a veteran.

[weepaws 2,460]

I think drafting a Qb would have been a good move .

 

And I agree with the post above , I just don't trust him staying healthy .

[Cruzer 1,992]

 

Last year they had the #17 total defense and went 4-12. In 2014, they had the #19 total defense and went 12-4. That's far from one the worst defenses in the league.

 

 

For the record I was 1A Ramsey and 1B Elliot, but you're crazy if you think Elliot is going to have the Murray role. Yes, Elliot will be the man, but with the success that McFadden had this year, he'll still be handed some drives here and there.

 

You said earlier we needed a playmaker on defense, so is Ramsey and his 3 career interceptions really that guy to help us make plays?

 

The truth is, is that we actually need a playmaker on offense and to really build up the front 7 on the d-line.

 

The biggest mistake of the draft was getting Smith at #34. Our following picks were a lot better, but Smith...ugh.

 

Whether you agree or not, I think the Elliot was a flashy, "win now" pick.

1. Bcoz the offense was so putrid and constantly going 3 and out, you do have to allow a bit of a curve. Such things as points and yards allowed will be relative based on pure exhaustion and # of plays forced to endure... That being said - we ranked 25th in sacks - with G. Hardy, were dead ass last in takeaways and dead ass last in plus/minus. Given the fact we played in the pathetic NFC East and all its inept offensive power - that's embarrassing.

 

2. I don't think Zeke will have the Murray role, I just said he will be the man, will get the start... I said we wouldn't be dealing DMC and in fact keeping 3 rbs on the roster. I think Dunbar is the odd man out... I also don't think we will ever see a Murray type role - least Gawd I hope not... To expect your back to have 450 touches and then return the next year all willy nilly is a lot to ask.

 

3. You've clearly not seen any of my comments regarding Ramsey and taking him or not.

 

4. 2nd hand, circumvent approach to fixing a problem... Instead of actually addressing the actual problem (the defense), let's do the opposite that way it helps the defense on the backside.... "Hey doc, I think this bone spur in my left foot needs to be cut on." (doc) "Well Timmy let's get your right kneed cleaned up so you can put more pressure on it and that should take some of the pressure off your heel........."

 

5. Finally - we agree on something... But this is not new - this team is notorious for crapping the bed on vital 2nd round picks.

 

6. That's just it, Zeke was a "win now" pick... Problem is - we followed that up picking for the future. And hell, that guy may never play a down of football - ever.

[thePRO 78]

Let's just hope we somehow pullout a Super Bowl win in these next few years because Jerry will eventually start saying what we've been saying.

 

"I should've built a defense and groomed a young QB to go along with that beast Oline. Now we'll have to rebuild 5-10 years." - Jerry

[R8RMick 242]

This is a great discussion among Cowboy fans. I liked the Elliott pick, and predict mid-season fans will be laughing about it even being a debated topic. Nobody can ever duplicate what DeMarco Murray did with this team in 2014, not sure even he could. What I see from E2 is a role similar to what Emmitt gave them. That ever present possibility of taking it to the house.

 

Thought the Smith pick was all Jerry, they should've rolled with Spence who I think is better than either of the two guys taken immediately before their second rounder. But having said that, the gamble on a top 5 player was not wholly unreasonable.

 

Where I think Dallas screwed the pooch was not topping Oakland's offer to Cleveland at the top of the fourth. Or better yet just drafting Connor Cook in the third. That kid has the very real potential to be the best QB in this draft. Folks are laughing at Oakland for making that move. In a year or two they won't be.

[giraldi02 470]

From a pure fantasy perspective, I don't think there's been this level of talent paired with a great situation (O-line, Elite WR to keep defenses honest) for a rookie running back of Elliott's caliber.

 

The more and more I've looked at his situation from a fantasy lens, I rank Elliott just a hair below Gurley in PPR leagues. Both in re-draft and dynasty. This likely won't be agreed upon by most others, if anyone. To each their own. This kid is special. And the dropoff between he and the rest of the rookies is steeper than years past.

 

He's the best pass-blocking running back coming out of college I've maybe ever seen. Watch clips of Elliott's footwork behind the LOS, he's decisive. He doesn't fumble (just three lost fumbles in his entire college career. His experience in the inside-zone at Ohio State is going to help him make the transition to the Cowboys' offense as well. And then there's the PPR factor. He had just one drop last season on 27 targets.

 

People can hate on the pick itself given the Cowboys' need on defense (and I am certainly in that boat) but viewing it solely from a fantasy perspective, the hype is justified.

[sirensong 111]

This is a great discussion among Cowboy fans. I liked the Elliott pick, and predict mid-season fans will be laughing about it even being a debated topic. Nobody can ever duplicate what DeMarco Murray did with this team in 2014, not sure even he could. What I see from E2 is a role similar to what Emmitt gave them. That ever present possibility of taking it to the house.

 

Thought the Smith pick was all Jerry, they should've rolled with Spence who I think is better than either of the two guys taken immediately before their second rounder. But having said that, the gamble on a top 5 player was not wholly unreasonable.

 

Where I think Dallas screwed the pooch was not topping Oakland's offer to Cleveland at the top of the fourth. Or better yet just drafting Connor Cook in the third. That kid has the very real potential to be the best QB in this draft. Folks are laughing at Oakland for making that move. In a year or two they won't be.

 

 

couple of thoughts. first, word among the well-connected is that spence was considered to be the 'wrong kind of guy', i.e., someone to whom football was not an overriding passion. combined with his off-field concerns, he may have been completely off the draft board.

 

second, garrett and co. put a premium on leadership qualities, and focus heavily on college team captains in the draft. a QB who was never voted captain by his teammates sets off serious alarm bells.

 

that said, i figured you would approve of the zeke pick. i'm on board too.

[weepaws 2,460]

Maybe the Cowboys need to change the way they draft .

 

When was the last time the made it to the Super Bowl ?

 

This will be another season that they will miss out .

 

And for there many fans maybe next season they will draft a big need a Qb

 

As for the pick of Zeke I said that day he is a top five rb in ppr .

 

So for fantasy football that was a great pick .

[SpenceToons 70]

 

 

..... I rank Elliott just a hair below Gurley in PPR leagues. Both in re-draft and dynasty. This likely won't be agreed upon by most others, if anyone. To each their own. This kid is special. And the dropoff between he and the rest of the rookies is steeper than years past.

 

He's the best pass-blocking running back coming out of college I've maybe ever seen. Watch clips of Elliott's footwork behind the LOS, he's decisive. He doesn't fumble (just three lost fumbles in his entire college career. His experience in the inside-zone at Ohio State is going to help him make the transition to the Cowboys' offense as well. And then there's the PPR factor. He had just one drop last season on 27 targets......

 

 

 

In the ADP aggregations just posted on this site, Ezekiel Elliott is going as the 10th (10 team) and 9th (12 team) picks in Standard but as the 36th (10 team) and 33rd (12 team) picks in PPR. Am I missing something ? Other top backs aren't seeing such a significant drop-off; and in the post I've quoted above, Elliott is showing signs of being both a skilled pass blocker and a sure handed receiver.

 

I can only hope he's still falling this far come August.

[Cruzer 1,992]

Elliott is showing signs of being both a skilled pass blocker and a sure handed receiver.

This isn't breaking news... The word was out well before the draft on how skilled of a pass blocker he was. It was thrown around here as one of the cherry's on top for possibly taking him at 4.

[weepaws 2,460]

Number one rb on my list .

[nobody 2,038]

 

In the ADP aggregations just posted on this site, Ezekiel Elliott is going as the 10th (10 team) and 9th (12 team) picks in Standard but as the 36th (10 team) and 33rd (12 team) picks in PPR. Am I missing something ? Other top backs aren't seeing such a significant drop-off; and in the post I've quoted above, Elliott is showing signs of being both a skilled pass blocker and a sure handed receiver.

 

I can only hope he's still falling this far come August.

That non-ppr data might include results from before the draft. Fantasyfootballcalulator.com has a bunch of ADP data spanning all the way back to feb 22nd, so it's pretty useless.

[Ray_T 590]

That non-ppr data might include results from before the draft. Fantasyfootballcalulator.com has a bunch of ADP data spanning all the way back to feb 22nd, so it's pretty useless.

yeah, I think the timeframe is quite important when talking ADPs as the ADP's on some players can shift significantly from week to week.

[weepaws 2,460]

Especially if you are taking someone's ADP from February up until now .

 

I don't do ADP .

 

I do my own .

[SpenceToons 70]

The data for the two Standard aggregations were taken from 5/17 through 6/1. The 12 team PPR was culled from 5/5 thru 6/1 and the 10 team PPR from 5/2 thru 6/1. So if the PPR aggregations had the same 5/17 start that the Standards did, perhaps Elliott's ADP would be higher. Sorry for the fuss.

[R8RMick 242]

I think Elliott is going to be a beast. Standard scoring, PPR, all of it.

[giraldi02 470]

All I can think of in regards to Zeke now is the quote from Se7en.

If we catch John Doe and he turns out to be the devil, I mean if he's Satan himself, that might live up to our expectations, but he's not the devil. He's just a man.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

The real question. Where do you draft him in standard/PPR as it stands now?

[tanatastic 2,061]

The real question. Where do you draft him in standard/PPR as it stands now?

He is shaping up to be a top 12 pick in both formats so you almost have no choice. I have seen people say as early as top 5. I personally would only target him after Freeman and Lamar Miller is gone as well as my top 7-8 wrs.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

He is shaping up to be a top 12 pick in both formats so you almost have no choice. I have seen people say as early as top 5. I personally would only target him after Freeman and Lamar Miller is gone as well as my top 7-8 wrs.

That puts him right around 12? I'm at the turn and I think there's a good chance I'll be staring at him. I'm still undecided. He's top 5 upside. I haven't decided his floor yet.