I have an idea for a thread. If we have at least one person who has watched each team closely at OTAs give an in depth scouting report, then in total we have a great scouting report. I will start with a 49ers report, and hope others will follow with the team that they follow closely.
49ers - General
With a new coaching staff led by Chip Kelly, better position coaches, esp OL. two QB's who can run, and better chemistry and buy in than Chip ever had in Philly, I am expecting good things from the 49er offense. Given the pace of Kelly's offense, the fantasy stats will be level better than the actual offense. The two caveats are: The 49ers play in a division with some great D, especially passing. AZ and Seat are excellent, the Rams have been excellent, but I expect them to take a step back. They lost an excellent corner and their only run stopping LB without replacement, but I still think their D is at least average.
The other caveat, is the OL. The 49er line was bad last year, and will be better this year, 3 draft choices including a 1st rounder, plus Zane Beadles who should be a good fit for the 49ers zone blocking, plus Flaherty is a top notch OL coach. The question is how much better, especially at the beginning of the year. I think they hold up, but if they had a several injuries, or a key injury to LT Joe Staley or C Daniel Kilgore, I think they could be in trouble.
Put that all together and I would conservatively estimate the 49ers will have about the #10 fantasy offense this year.
QB - The bad news for drafting a 49er QB is that right how the starter is pure 50/50 between Gabbert and Kaepernick. The good news is that I think whoever wins the QB competition will have good stats. Kelly has been for QB's, and Gabbert and Kap are both better scheme fits than any other QB he has worked with in the NFL. The 49ers QB's will run some zone read, and they will get lots of snaps with the 49er pace. Add it up, and my estimate is if Kap wins the job he will be the #6 QB (because of flashier rushing totals) and Gabbert will be #9 if he wins.
RB - I think Hyde and Kelly is a match made in heaven. IF he stays healthy, Hyde will get lots of carries, and he will be used more in the passing game. I will go out on a limb and say that if he is healthy all year we are looking at a top 3 RB. However health is a real issue because of Hyde's Murray-like contact running style.
The back-up position is up in the air between 4 players, Dujuan Harris,Mike Davis, Draughn, and Kelvin Taylor, making none of them good draft choices at this time. Draughn may be carving out a role in passing situations, but Hyde is a 3 down back, so that will not be a huge swath. The back up in a Kelly offense can get significant carries, so it is worth watching training camp closely to see who emerges. Right now my raking of the 4 would be Draughn, Taylor, Harris, Davis.
WR - It seems like Torrey Smith will have a breakout year, think Desean Jackson in 2013 or Maclin in 2014 on the Eagles. Kelly will use him as a true #1, more than just a deep threat. However, I think we need to moderate expectation because the division has two true shut down corners in Sherman and Patrick Peterson. I think the Niners will scheme Smith open, by putting him in the slot and such, but I still think he will be very affected for those 4 games,.Given this, I estimate Smith gets 1000-1100 yards. There are a lot of other mouths to feed in the 49er passing offense, and a lot of competition for slots, there are literally 10 guys who have shined at one point or another in OTAs and could either be the #2 or the slot guy. Best bet is Bruce Ellington, who definitely is in the lead for the slot. If he has regular time, he also will get a little bit of rushing from fly sweeps. Next best bet is Canadian import Eric Rogers, who could be a red zone threat, but there is so much uncertainty here, I would stay away from anyone but Smith and keep my eyes open during the preseason.
TE - Okay, I have real darkhorse candidate here. Vance McDonald is a good blocker and very athletic, a potential matchup nightmare who had been held up by having stone hands, He was not seen dropping even one pass this preseason, and after listening to the coaches, I think he may have really turned a corner. I am seeing a top 10 TE, maybe more. Note - there is some risk here because the 49ers have 3 other interesting candidates at TE, but McDonald is someone i would take a risk on.
K - Dawson is good, 41 and not slowing down. I think he will get more Extra Points this year, but Chip tends to go for it rather than take long FG, and there is also a risk that Chip decides to go for 2 a lot. I would place Dawson at the bottom of the top 10.
DEF - The pace that makes the offensive stats look good, makes the D look bad. I think the Niners will be better on defense, and have better sack and turnover numbers, but not good enough that they are draftable in a 10 or 12 team league. If you are looking at them for matchups. I think the run D will be stronger than pass. There are some questions at CB.
