kroyrunner89

Quick write ups this week guys, one note on the system plays, be cautious with ones affected by injuries or changes at key positions (Titans have Vince Young in this week). That's an unknown, I'll count it towards my record and everything but I don't like unknowns. Here are my plays this week: * Texans -3 Buffalo's pass defense is not nearly as good as the stats indicate at the moment, since they've had the benefit of playing the Browns, Bucs, Panthers, Jets, and Dolphins. On paper, it kind of looks like Houston could be expected to struggle throwing in this matchup, but I can't see the Buffalo pass defense keeping an offense like Houston's down all afternoon. Plus, Buffalo likely won't put a ton of points up themselves. We've probably got a 27-17 type game here, I think Houston comes out on top. * Dolphins +3 The Jets' stomping of the Raiders shows me absolutely nothing. Oakland pretty much handed them that game. I don't think the change of venue will make a huge difference in this contest, as Miami should be able to come away with the win once again. * Giants/Eagles OVER 44.5 Each defense is bottom 8 in the league in keeping yardage from being turned into points. I think the Giants offense bounces back in a big way, and the Eagles will certainly put up their fair share of points too. I expect this total to go over easily. * Lions -4 The Rams offense is terrible. Steven Jackson could have a pretty big day, but as usual the Rams probably won't be able to do a ton with his yardage. Stafford and Calvin Johnson are both listed as questionable, but reports sound like both are expected to play. The Lions should win here by at least a touchdown. ATS System Plays: * Lions -4 * Texans -3 * Jaguars +3 * Dolphins +3 * Giants (PK) Overs System Plays: * Giants/Eagles OVER 44.5 Unders System Plays: * None this week Good luck this week guys!

Sorry for the delay in posting guys. Here's all the lines out so far: Broncos +3.5 @ Ravens 41.5 Browns +13 @ Bears 40 Texans -3 @ Bills 41 Vikings +3 @ Packers 47 49ers +12 @ Colts 44 Dolphins +3 @ Jets 40.5 Seahawks +9.5 @ Cowboys 46 Raiders +16.5 @ Chargers 41.5 Jaguars +3 @ Titans 45 Panthers +10 @ Cardinals 41 Giants PK @ Eagles 44 Falcons +10 @ Saints 54 Good luck this week!

Here's what I'm liking for this week guys: * Chicago Bears +1 Statistically, these are very similar teams. However, there are a few advantages that the Bears have that I think swing this game. Short and sweet version: the Bears have a much better return game, they convert their yards into points better (Given all of the redzone turnovers so far this season that speaks volumes), and their pass defense is much better. I think these pieces lead to a victory by the Bears on the road. * New York/Oakland UNDER 34.5 It would be pretty easy to make an argument for Oakland being the worst offense in the league right now. They're 2nd worst in yards per pass attempt, 4th worst in yards per rush attempt, and 4th worst at turning their yards into points. They're the only team in the league that is bottom 8 in all of these categories, and a tough Jets' defense will do them no favors. I don't expect the loss of Kris Jenkins to affect the Jets much in this one. How does Oakland top 10 points in this one? As far as the Jets are concerned, they're middle of the pack in terms of passing yards per attempt and turning yardage into points, their big strength thus far has been running the ball. Oakland has a middle of the pack defense on all levels, but always seems to play a bit more inspired at home. With a struggling Mark Sanchez, I don't see how the Jets can top 24 points. This game should go under for us, despite the line being set so low. * New Orleans/Miami OVER 47.5 A lot of people are talking like this could be the week that the Saints flounder. They're coming off of a huge win, they're on the road, Miami has an effective rushing attack that should confuse the Saints, the pieces are in place for an upset. However, I simply cannot overlook the fact that Miami is 4th worst in the league currently at yards per pass attempt allowed. Drew Brees and company will absolutely eat them alive. The question is how well Miami will be able to keep drives alive to keep the ball out of Brees' hands. Miami has the 5th best rushing attack in the league, while New Orleans' rushing defense is middle of the pack. Perhaps Miami can spring an upset and top the Saints, but one way or another I can't see this point total going under. I don't like taking totals plays that the majority of the public is on, but the public should get rewarded in this case with a high scoring game. * San Francisco/Houston OVER 44 Houston is proving every week that they simply cannot run the ball. They have the 3rd worst rushing attack in the NFL, and are up against the 2nd best rush defense in the NFL so far. To me, that looks like a recipe for them to move the ball through the air this game, keeping the clock from running too much. Schaub should also make a dumb mistake or two during the game, which most likely will result in some easy SF points. The San Francisco offense has had trouble moving the ball through the air so far, but despite struggling to gain some yardage they're still very efficient at turning their yards into points (although some of this can be contributed to special teams and defensive points). However, a defense that has been that opportunistic in the past should continue to be in the future. San Fran also sees the return of Gore to their lineup this week, a huge plus given that they're playing against one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL. Not to mention that they'll have yet another weapon on the field for the first time this week with Crabtree. All of the stats pointed to the over despite no Gore the last few weeks and no Crabtree the whole season, and these two factors will only help the over become more likely. Good luck this week guys! System kicks off next week!

Here's what I've got for lines this week: Chargers -5 @ Chiefs 44 Colts -14 @ Rams 45 Bears +1 @ Bengals 42 Packers -7 @ Browns 41.5 Vikings +4.5 @ Steelers 45 Patriots -14.5 @ Bucs 45 49ers +3 @ Texans 44 Jets -6 @ Raiders 34.5 Bills +7 @ Panthers 36.5 Saints -6 @ Dolphins 47 Falcons+4 @ Cowboys 47.5 Cardinals +7 @ Giants 46 Eagles -7 @ Redskins 37 Good luck this week guys!

I'll throw up lines tomorrow at the latest, I'm waiting for the Carolina line to come out.

Decent Sunday, getting back on the winning side of things with a 2-1 day. I'm a bit disappointed in the day though as I left three other winners on the shelf, you can see here on the card I put together for one of my contests. I'd like to think had I had my normal preparation I would have let these plays through and shared a couple more with you guys. I will rarely be leaving town with no internet access though, so this shouldn't be a problem that pops up often. I've spent the last day reviewing the play I'm going to release tonight, and I've decided it's worthy of being a late addition. If this play were to lose a winning week would turn into one where we lose a little juice, but as disappointing as that would be I can't ignore this opportunity and I'm going to go for it. Here's what I like for tonight: * Broncos/Chargers UNDER 44 This is a pretty straight forward pick, as the Broncos' defense has been spectacular so far at shutting down potent offenses. They currently sit at 4th best in the league in yards per pass attempt allowed, and 6th best in yards per rush attempt allowed (especially sweet against this SD rushing attack, which is worst in the league). San Diego will likely be trying to move the ball through the air the majority of this game, which they will learn is a challenge much like Brady and Romo have in the previous two weeks. Even if the Chargers are able to rack up some yards, the Broncos still are by far the best in the league at scoring efficiency defense. The Chargers will have trouble converting any yards they gain into touchdowns. On Denvers' side of the ball, they've been doing a great job of generating yards, but they're 8th worst in the league at turning those yards into points. I acknowledge that San Diego is also 8th worst in this category on defense, however I think coming off of the bye week slightly more healthy their defense will be looking a bit better than it has so far this season. I think this game will have it's fair share of mistakes and points left on the field, so the under is the obvious play in my mind. Good luck to anyone who bets on tonight's game!

Hey guys, putting out plays early this week due to heading out of town and not having computer access. I was a bit worried about this originally, but I'm actually feeling pretty good about the plays I've settled on this week. Hopefully we can put an ugly Week 5 behind us and get our momentum moving forward again. Here's what I'm liking this week: * Green Bay Packers -13 It's kind of rare that I go for the double digit spreads, however this is one that jumps out at me as a good investment opportunity. We've got the Packers coming fresh off of a bye, going against a Lions team that will likely be without Stafford or Calvin Johnson. I know that protection issues have hampered Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' offense all season, but it's looking like Chad Clifton will be returning to their line this week and that will definitely help them out. The Green Bay offense is 6th in the league at turning their yards into points, and I expect that the deck is stacked in their favor to gain plenty of yards and put up plenty of points this coming week. * Chiefs/Redskins UNDER 37.5 Neither of these teams offenses are good, and both have respectable defenses. The Redskins are 4th worst in the league at turning their yards into points, and although the Chiefs are middle of the pack in this category, they're 2nd worst at gaining passing yards and 6th worst at gaining rushing yards. Their offense simply cannot move the ball. With a slightly above average Redskins' defense, I'm willing to overlook the weaker KC defense and assume the Redskins won't top 20 points, which should be enough to win them the game. In my opinion, this is a very solid looking under. * Seahawks -3 It's kind of rough trying to find stats in this matchup since the Seahawks have only played two games with Hasselbeck, but their offense is so much more potent with him in the lineup it's unbelievable. Arizona is still not playing too well, struggling to run the ball and turn their yards into points. Not to mention that they have the worst passing defense in the NFL still after their showdown with the Texans last weekend, something that Hasselbeck should be more than capable of exploiting. One aspect of the Seattle game that hasn't been affected by Hasselbeck's absence is their defense, which is 4th best in the league at preventing opponents from turning yardage into points. I think Seattle wins this week, taking the game by at least a touchdown. That's it for this week guys, good luck with your plays!

Week 6 Lines: Chiefs +6 @ Redskins 37.5 Texans +4.5 @ Bengals 45 Browns +14 @ Steelers 38 Ravens +2.5 @ Vikings 43.5 Rams +10 @ Jaguars 42 Giants +3 @ Saints 47.5 Panthers -3 @ Bucs 39.5 Lions +13 @ Packers 48 Eagles -14 @ Raiders 40.5 Cardinals +2.5 @ Seahawks 47 Bills +9.5 @ Jets 38 Titans +9 @ Patriots 43.5 Bears +3 @ Falcons 46 Broncos +3.5 @ Chargers 44 Good luck as usual guys!

Stinker of a week for me.... 1-3 . That Houston game was a brutal beat, but the two losses on the SF game I deserved, absolutely terrible read there. Oh well, it happens sometimes, I'll bounce back and get 'em next week!

* SF 49ers -2 * SF/Atlanta UNDER 40.5 This is a very interesting game this week, with Atlanta coming off of a bye and Frank Gore still out for the 49ers. The main philosophy driving this pick for me is how much worse the Falcons were last year on the road, and their brutal loss to the Patriots a couple of weeks ago led me to believe that nothing has changed. They've struggled to get Turner running well all year, and the SF defense will certainly be another challenge for him. Atlanta has been a middle of the pack defense so far, and although San Francisco doesn't exactly light it up on offense they usually are able to put some quality drives together to get points on the board. Their defense is stellar at creating turnovers as well, something that could also set them up for some easy points. I think both offenses will struggle to move the ball in this one, but in the end San Fransisco will come out with a win in a hard fought, low scoring game. * Houston Texans +5 I'm not ready to give up on the Texans yet. Although they benefited from playing the lowly Raiders last week, bringing their defensive numbers to a little bit more reasonable of a level, I'm still aware that their defense just isn't good. However, Arizona is not playing anywhere near the level they played last year. Turnovers have cost them big so far, and like years in the past their rushing offense is putting up very mediocre numbers. The red flag here that makes me go with the Texans is how awful the Arizona pass defense has been. Arizona has allowed 7.2 yards per pass attempt against them, something that I fully expect the Texans to take advantage of. Although Arizona will put up their fair share of points, Houston will be able to answer without much problem. Not to mention that the Texans are finally starting to get Steve Slaton going as he's been running much better these last two games with 33 carries for 141 yards. This game could get pretty high scoring, although a 24-21 type of game wouldn't surprise me either. I think that worst case scenario has Arizona winning by a field goal. The Texans should cover in this one no problem. * Patriots/Broncos UNDER 41 This play jumped out pretty quickly to me this week. Here we have a Patriots offense that still hasn't done anything to show me that they've gelled, going against one of the best defenses in the NFL right now. The Patriots should have lost last week's game, as they didn't look great on offense, but got bailed out by a few dumb penalties by the Ravens that kept their drives alive. Meanwhile, we have a Denver offense here that isn't the most explosive offense in the world, going against a middle of the pack defense. I'd be very surprised if we didn't see Denver trying to run quite a bit on the Patriots and wind clock to keep the ball out of Brady's hands, which of course will aid in keeping the point total in this game down. These teams are also the 8th and 11th worst in the league at turning their yards into points, so we may see them settling for field goals quite a bit (Not to mention that Denver's defense is best in the league in this category). We should have a low scoring battle ahead of us in Denver tomorrow, and I think the under has a pretty high chance of coming through for us. Good luck this week guys!

Vikings -10 @ Rams ??? Cowboys -9 @ Chiefs 43.5 Redskins +3.5 @ Panthers 37 Bucs +13.5 @ Eagles ??? Raiders +16 @ Giants 39.5 Browns +6 @ Bills 40.5 Bengals +9 @ Ravens 42 Steelers -10.5 @ Lions 44 Falcons +2.5 @ 49ers 41 Patriots -3 @ Broncos 41 Texans +5.5 @ Cardinals 48 Jaguars -3 @ Seahawks ??? Colts -3.5 @ Titans 45.5 Jets -1.5 @ Dolphins 36 Some totals are still missing, if I have time later this week I'll update this to include them. Good luck to everyone this week!

Sorry about the disappearance. Saturday night some unforeseen circumstances kept me from getting on here, and Sunday morning when I made my rounds at the forums posting up my plays this one wouldn't load for me. As one of you mentioned, I was on the SF/STL Under and Den +3 only this week, which got me up to 15-3 ATS so far this year. This hot streak is remarkable, but I'd be shocked if I can hit over 80% over a 4 week span again this season. Who knows though, if I keep plugging away like I have been maybe the hard work will continue paying off! Again, sorry I didn't get the plays up here this week, it looks like a couple of you are getting my emails so spread the word about what I'm playing in the future if Sunday morning rolls around and I still haven't posted here for some reason! I'll see you guys Week 5!

Raiders +9 @ Texans 41.5 Titans -3 @ Jaguars 41 Ravens +1 @ Patriots 44.5 Bengals -5.5 @ Browns 38 Giants -9 @ Chiefs 42 Lions +10 @ Bears 38.5 Bucs +7 @ Redskins 37 Seahawks ??? @ Colts ??? Jets +6 @ Saints 45 Bills -1.5 @ Dolphins 37 Rams +9.5 @ 49ers 37.5 Cowboys -3 @ Broncos 43.5 Chargers +6.5 @ Steelers 43 Packers +3 @ Vikings 45 As usual, good luck to everyone this week!

5-2 today, bringing me to 13-3 ATS YTD!!! Regret that Houston play, I read that game completely wrong. Wish I had listened to my gut on that one that something wasn't quite right. Moving on to Week 4, see you all then!

Week 3 is finally here, bringing with it a lot of very interesting match-ups. After doing my usual routine throughout the week to decide which plays I like and narrow them down, I wound up with a few more plays then I expected. Although a couple of these have the looks of traps and it makes a a little nervous, I'm going to go ahead and ride them and hope for the best. When everything is said and done, I just can't make a case for why they shouldn't be a play, and if I think I see value there I'm going to take it. I'd be stunned if I saw another undefeated week, so please don't take these plays and throw them into parlays and hope for the best. This is a much tighter set of lines then in Week 1. As usual, I recommend just flat betting these plays and looking ahead to where you want to be at the end of the season, rather than where you want to be after this week. So, here are the plays I'm looking at for this week: * New York Giants -6.5 The only way I see the Giants losing this game or failing to cover is if they suffer a letdown after their dramatic win over the Cowboys last week. However, this hasn't been characteristic of the Giants' teams of the past couple years. The last two seasons, when the Giants have been coming off of a win against a division opponent, and faced a non-division opponent the next week, they've still cruised, going 3-0 and winning by just under 20 ppg (Against the Rams and Ravens last year, and the Jets in 2007). Against a terrible Tampa team, I'll trust that this team has similar character to the teams of years past and doesn't suffer the letdown I'm slightly worried about. I expect the Giants to roll over the Bucs, cruising to a win by at least two touchdowns. * Pittsburgh/Cincinnati UNDER 37 For the first time in a while, the Bengals look like they have a good defense. A big part of their success shutting down the Green Bay attack was the constant pressure they had on Rogers, and the Steelers' offensive line isn't much better. The Steelers have already surrendered 6 sacks in two games, while Cincinnati has pummeled their opponents for 9 sacks in two games. With the running game struggling, the Steelers will likely be a little more throw heavy, giving the Bengals more chances to get to Big Ben. With their QB under constant pressure, the Steelers shouldn't be able to put many good drives together, keeping their point total down. As far as the Bengals' offense goes, I don't expect much better points wise. Their yards per pass and rush attempt are nothing spectacular, and Pittsburgh has absolutely slammed the door on the run so far this year. I expect the Bengals will still try, but they'll eventually have to turn to an inconsistent Palmer to try to get them to score. This should stay a low scoring affair, with both teams struggling to get in the end zone and coming away with a lot of field goals. I expect a 20-16 type of game at the highest. * Chicago Bears -2 It took me a while to warm up to this game, but I simply cannot ignore all of the injuries plaguing the Seahawks right now. Hasselbeck is unlikely to play, and Wallace should struggle against a Bears defense that has been effective against the pass so far (6th in the league in yards per pass attempt). The Seahawks also will likely struggle running the ball, setting them up in must throw situations and playing into the Bears' hands. On offense, I expect the Bears to work hard to get the RB Matt Forte going, who has been shut down thus far. Against a Seattle defense that has injury problems and got shredded last week by the 49ers, I wouldn't be surprised to see success out of Forte finally. Once the run game is established, the Bears can let Cutler loose and put it away. Bears should take this one by a touchdown. * Denver Broncos -1 * Denver/Oakland UNDER 36.5 Denver finds themselves in a position to start 3-0, something few could have predicted. Although the Raiders' defense has looked good so far this year, their offense has been absolutely abysmal. Russel has played very inconsistent, seeming to wake up for only the fourth quarter each week. Meanwhile, despite keeping the Chiefs to very few points last week, Oakland got dominated in total yardage. Their defense managed to do the job and get the Chiefs off the field, but I think that the Broncos are a team much more equipped to take advantage of scoring opportunities that come their way. Also, despite Oakland's struggle to rack up yards thus far, they've done a great job turning the yards into points. This however meets with the strength of the Denver defense, who is best in the league right now at keeping yardage from being converted into points. The Raiders' offense isn't much better than the Browns' right now, and Denver should have no problem keeping Oakland's point total in single digits. I see Denver scoring anywhere from 14-24 points, while Oakland struggles to find the right side of 10. * Houston Texans -3.5 * Houston/Jacksonville OVER 47 I've flip flopped on this game all week, unable to decide if I wanted to make it a play or not. Houston seems to have the clear advantage here, and the line seems like it should be more in the neighborhood of Houston -7. However, we find ourselves facing a line of just 3.5 points, and we must wonder if we're walking into a trap with this one. I don't necessarily believe that Vegas sets lines with the purpose of trapping people, I think we just create the traps ourselves. Right now everyone is impressed with Houston's gutty come from behind win, with thoughts of Schaub's 4 touchdowns still fresh in their minds. Meanwhile, the Jaguars had an underwhelming effort against Arizona, and got thrown all over for the second game in a row. If I had to guess why this line was so low, I'd assume that Vegas expects it to be a high scoring affair with MJD having a monster day. Houston's pass and run defense are absolutely abysmal, giving up 7.4 yards per pass attempt, and 6.32 yards per rush attempt. Not all of those rushing numbers are because of Chris Johnson either, the Jets tore them up on the ground in Week 1 as well. This game reminds me of the Week 1 Saints vs. Lions game, I have a very similar feeling on it. I'm confident that the points will be there on the Texans' end, if they fell short of 27 I'd be very surprised, they may even go over that. On the Jacksonville end, we know that they're going against a Texans' defense that has been very bad lately, and the opportunity for them to put up points sure appears to be there. If this game goes over, it'll be because Jacksonville did scored on their end and potentially covered. If it goes under, it's probably because the Texans' defense bore down and they blew out the Jags. I think this is another great situation where worst case scenario has us eating a little juice and going 1-1, with a very good possibility of the total going over and the Texans covering anyways, giving us a 2-0 record for this game. I may come back with a Monday Night Football play, I'm strongly considering it right now. If I do make a play I'll send out an email Monday afternoon. Good luck this week guys, hopefully we find ourselves with a profit for a third week in a row!