Rodgers isn't getting a lot of love

[vrabinec 19]

Looking at the projections on Yahoo, they're projecting him with 4500 yards 31 TDs and 11 Ints. On NFL.com, they're projecting LESS than 4500 yards 35 TDs and 10 Ints

 

Am I being naïve to think he's gonna be close to 5000 yards and probably tops 40 TDs?

[Vikings4ever 496]

2 words: Eddie Lacy.

 

Rodgers doesn't have to throw it 550 times a season anymore.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Agree on Lacy. The plus though I think is the division. They can all score.

 

It seems to me they are a little shallower than they have been at WR and TE maybe than recently too?

 

Seems like Jordy and Cobb have missed some time one way over another and without Jones-Finley there I do wonder what might happen if one of those guys were to miss time but that's an aside.

 

 

Looking over Rodgers career numbers he's only approached that 5K mark once in 2011 where he went for 4,643 in 15 games. His next highest was 4,430 in 2009.

 

Rodgers rushing I think has always capped his final passing numbers a bit...so 5K with Lacy and his history seems a bit of a stretch to me.

[vrabinec 19]

They only threw it 55% of the time last year, and they didn't have Rodgers for a chunk of the year. You think they'll throw it less than that? I would think the percentage will be about the same, but he'll have Cobb and Nelson, Lacy's a decent target out in the flats. Boykin and the rookies'll pitch in a bunch.

[Matt Mueller 146]

On the flip side I was looking over last years passing stats and he was likely on pace. 2,509 passing yards in 8 full games. 313 yards per game.

 

 

Without the Washington outlier of 480 yards in week 2 he drops to probably a more realistic 289 yards per game.

 

 

289 x 16= 4,637

[Matt Mueller 146]

This is another aside but I went Rodgers in the first round in a startup dynasty draft 2 seasons ago. Rarely did I ever feel like he gave me a leg up on the competition the way Peyton or Brees can.

 

Don't get me wrong he's a great player but I'm just not sure the guy that gets Rodgers early has any real consistent leg up on say Ryan later...but that's more my draft style anyway.

[vrabinec 19]

I'd never go with him in the first, but I like him a lot in the second. I figure the threat of Lacy forces the safeties up, that opens up the deeper crossing patterns. Plus Lacy is good in the flats, which keeps the OLBS from getting too deep of a drop. I dunno, maybe not 5000, but I definitely see him pushing for his best yardage ever, and getting more TD's since Lacy's gonna help him keep drives going.

[weepaws 2,459]

Looking at the projections on Yahoo, they're projecting him with 4500 yards 31 TDs and 11 Ints. On NFL.com, they're projecting LESS than 4500 yards 35 TDs and 10 Ints

 

Am I being naïve to think he's gonna be close to 5000 yards and probably tops 40 TDs?

They look good to me

[rholio 339]

NFL sounds about right.

[vrabinec 19]

Hmm, you guys might be right here. The last time he had a decent back was Grant in 2009. He threw it almost 550 times, but for about 4400 yards. His INT ratio was low. Makes sense, since he's not getting as many 3rd and longs.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Hmm, you guys might be right here. The last time he had a decent back was Grant in 2009. He threw it almost 550 times, but for about 4400 yards. His INT ratio was low. Makes sense, since he's not getting as many 3rd and longs.

 

You gotta factor in the rushing too. When a guys like Brees was tossing for 5K Rodgers would make up that difference with 300 or so rushing yards yearly.

 

Last year was his lowest rushing output per game since 2008 , 120 yards in 9 starts, and he didnt' score 1 td. I gotta think Lacy caps a little of that part of his overall upside...as much as he helps the overall offense be much better.

[tanatastic 2,061]

4500yds and 30+ tds is a stellar season for any qb. Are we that spoiled? He gets a ton of love as a unanimous top 3 qb. I dont think a single person or site has him less than 3rd. So thats peyton and brees ahead of him, is that really a slap in the face??

[vrabinec 19]

Well, if you're expecting close to 5000 and 40 TDs, then 4500 and 30 is a diss. But I think I'll temper my expectations a bit.

[IGotWorms 3,310]

Then he'll just have to take it like Ben Roethlisberger did

[vrabinec 19]

yeah, Ben has finally bought into the Haley offense. I think he may have his biggest year to date. Don't ever remember him having a back who could catch. And the receiver crew is deeper than I've ever seen it. Last year, they didn't even have a 4th receiver.

[weepaws 2,459]

It's the Steelers O Line that needs to improve . Let's see what happens.

[DrG 94]

• 4500 yards sounds about right. So does 35 TDS passing, with 200 yards rushing and 2-4 rushing TDS. In 6 pt TD leagues, you're still looking at 25 pts a game ...

Yes we are spoiled.

[Breesman32 11]

Rodgers has favorable matchups in fantasy playoffs going on the road against bills and bucs. Not sure Lacy is gonna take much away in those games. Bills can stop the run at home some and bucs definitely can. Its all about really when he can put up big numbers. Week 1 at Seattle would probably be best to bench him. Jets could be a problem too but they can stop the run. After that he'll be on a run against lions, bears, vikings, dolphins, saints(maybe), eagles, pats, falcons, bills, and bucs. The stinker could be Carolina mostly because packers will probably destroy them and just run the ball a lot. But looking at those matchups all either presenting qb showcases or being teams who can stuff the run I just don't see Rodgers being separated from the top 2.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Rodgers has favorable matchups in fantasy playoffs going on the road against bills and bucs. Not sure Lacy is gonna take much away in those games. Bills can stop the run at home some and bucs definitely can. Its all about really when he can put up big numbers. Week 1 at Seattle would probably be best to bench him. Jets could be a problem too but they can stop the run. After that he'll be on a run against lions, bears, vikings, dolphins, saints(maybe), eagles, pats, falcons, bills, and bucs. The stinker could be Carolina mostly because packers will probably destroy them and just run the ball a lot. But looking at those matchups all either presenting qb showcases or being teams who can stuff the run I just don't see Rodgers being separated from the top 2.

I think the passing volume Brees is going to work with is going to create some eye popping numbers. Brandon cooks, a super fast receiver on one end, a good vet in colston on the other, and jimmy graham being the nightmare matchup he is. Also, i believe their defense will be much improved.

 

So for me it goes

 

Brees

 

 

 

Manning

Rogers

[stonewall 647]

I'm drafting Lacy and Rodgers.

[DrG 94]

1. Buffalo looks like a juicy matchup, but you have risk that the weather intervenes.