I honestly went into this thinking it would justify Mcaffrey as likely producing higher than his 15th finish last year and FFT projected 15th for this year, but going thru the data, now not so sure.
Ultimately I go round and round coming to conclusion that FFToday’s projections are about right, but figure I’d share anyway, but just so you know before reading on, no convincing data either way.
Norv Turner as HC or OC can see breakdown by season here, highlights/lowlights of those seasons follow:
Emmitt Smith, now that OL didn’t hurt but still…
Terry Allen several productive years including monster 1550totyds/20td season
Nevah Bench Stephen Davis, productive seasons
’05, Amos Zeroue lead back 100 carries, Tyrone Wheatly 80 carries, Zeroue 48recs
’06, Lamont Jordan 272atts/1025yds, 70recs/563yds, 11tds
’07-’11, had this guy you may have heard of…Ladainian Tomlinson who had some somewhat productive years
’12, Forgettable year by Ryan Matthews
Considering this a throw away….Lead back was WillisMcaghee who only had 138 carries, 3 other RBs had 40something carries. Off note that lead receiving RB, Chris.Ogbonnaya had 48 recs (Mcaghee past his prime and Obbonnyaya who? And the Browns. Kind of why I’m considering a throw away season)
’14, Matt Asiata, Jerick Mckinnon combined for 277atts/1108yds/4.5ypc, 71recs/447yds
’15, Then Adrian Peterson 1700totyds/11tds (including 30recs)
’16, Asiata/Mckinnon again for 1350totyds/10tds
So when Turner has had a Bellcow guy, that RB has very good production. But when he hasn’t it either has not gone well or the production is there…but split between two RBs.
Let’s look closer at most recent history of this with Asiata/Mckinnon, as think Anderson/Mcaffrey are in this mode (actually with Mcaffrey being more talented) than the failed RBBC under Turner.
Now with this info let’s assume, and per pre-season and all talk out of Panthers camp, sounds like looking to have Mcaffrey be the lead back, albiet just slightly the lead back.
Let’s say 160carries at 3.7 ypc from last year that’s 592 rushing. His YPC was better 2nd half of last year, so think he could get to 4 (640yds if so), but let’s stick with the 592.
Now receptions were more evenly distributed between Asiata /Mckinnon, but would expect Mcaffrey to get lion share.Not the 80 last year, but think 65 is realistic at his last year’s 8.1 ypc that’s 526. See article below where Panthers are looking to get Mcaffrey recs, but more in space so he take advantage of his speed/elusiveness. So I could see a 10.0 ypc, which would be 650yds. (Note the article also cites committed to running game so would expect Anderson to be very much in the mix)
So, low end 592rushyds/527recyds/6td low end, 640rushds/650recyds/9tds high end.
Which puts him in line with FFToday’s projections.