Amari Cooper traded to Cowboys

[Phil Simms 11 127]

So the OAK receivers are available to pick up now on yahoo since Oak is on a BYE, went and grabbed Bryant. Nelson is gone

[Law 220]

Great. Because he was producing so well, he needed that second straight bye week and then weeks of learning a new offense. Great.

#WastedPick

[jimaveli 119]

I assume the offense wont be tough to learn. It seems like they do not let Dak do a lot of stuff at the line. And I assume they will give him easy stuff to do to get him on the field. Drags and slants. Hopefully no one tries really hard to cover him. He does not like that. Hehe.

[cbfalcon 824]

I assume the offense wont be tough to learn. It seems like they do not let Dak do a lot of stuff at the line. And I assume they will give him easy stuff to do to get him on the field. Drags and slants. Hopefully no one tries really hard to cover him. He does not like that. Hehe.

If you ever learned a teams playbook from the first Tecmo Bowl, you can learn the Cowboys offense

[jrokh 567]

Witten thinks the Cowboys won the trade, that should make you all feel better

[kilroy69 990]

Fleeced

[Vern357 15]

Honestly I kind of like it.

 

Whats the percentage of 1st round picks still on a team at the end the first season? Not that high. So they traded at best a 50/50 roll of the dice for a guy that could prove to be better odds than 50/50. I think dallas did alright.

[Law 220]

Honestly I kind of like it.

 

Whats the percentage of 1st round picks still on a team at the end the first season? Not that high. So they traded at best a 50/50 roll of the dice for a guy that could prove to be better odds than 50/50. I think dallas did alright.

 

What's the percentage of first round picks on a team at the end of the first season? I don't know, 100%?

 

Cooper was a first round pick in 2015. After 3 and half years, we know what he is and it's not a first rounder and that's what the Raiders got back.

Good for them.

[Jedi Sensei 17]

While initially I thought this was a real bad trade for the Cowboys (i still like it more for thr Raiders).....i think people are getting a little outlandish here. Is it the fantasy football in all of you who act like he is hot garbage? I know he has let your fantasy seasons down....but did he turn into garbage overnight? The guy disappears way too often but hr put up 10 for 120ish vs Denver this year. He has big games. So I question with how he has been used. Yes he has had a lot of drops but he still seems capable at times of putting up big numbers. Are we all assuming he just totally lost it after "making" 2 pro bowls already?

 

Here is what I know and or assume. Good and bad.

 

-he is basically a rookie in terms of age.

 

-cowboys miss out on his rookie contract however

 

-still a long way to go. But we can assume Cowboys pick will be somewhere between 12-20.

 

-im not a fan of WRs in the first or trading a 1st for one unless they are elite talents and not headcases.

 

-the cowboys would have taken a WR in the 1st or 2nd next draft.

 

I think Raiders got a nice return for a guy they didnt mind parting with. Cowboys probably overpaid. But ai think this worst trade of alll time talk is a bit much. I am assuming 24 year old Cooper didnt just randomly lose his ability. I love to bash the Cowboys as much as the next guy. But I am not sure this is as awful as everyone is making it out to be.

 

 

devil's advocate time, because i'm too depressed right now and am trying to find a silver lining.

 

an awful lot of people--including a lot of serious analysts--thought DAL should have drafted ridley in '18. WR was an even bigger need for '19, but the top-end prospects just aren't there. cooper and ridley are the same age, but cooper is substantially better and has a demonstrated history of WR1 production. and he's the right kind of receiver for dak--a route/separation guy instead of a sandlot/contested catch guy. so what the cowboys did here was to draft a top WR prospect with their '19 1st. assuming that the due diligence was good, the only measurable downside to this move (compared to drafting ridley in '18) would be the loss of 3 years of rookie scale cap space.

 

 

so if DAL wasn't intending to draft a QB in '19, this wasn't an absolutely terrible move. if nothing else, it takes away the "no weapons" excuse from dak, as his 2nd contract negotiations loom.

 

Great, clear-headed analysis by you both. Cheers~!

[jimaveli 119]

Cooper is still young but he needs to be coached up and, if needed, cussed out. And then, he needs to be treated like something other than a #1 wr in an offense until he proves himself to be a #1. That should make his life a little easier and give him a chance to not become Kevin White. Or a high-dollar Torrey Smith. Or Sammy Watkins 2: not electric boogaloo.

[Vern357 15]

 

What's the percentage of first round picks on a team at the end of the first season? I don't know, 100%?

 

Cooper was a first round pick in 2015. After 3 and half years, we know what he is and it's not a first rounder and that's what the Raiders got back.

Good for them.

 

 

Pro Football Reference put together a metric called “draft value” which attempts to rate the draft value of players at different positions to arrive at a measure of how well teams have drafted. It ranges from 0-160, with only 1% scoring 80 or higher. It weighs factors such as number of games started, individual stats, team performance and all-pro honors. It also does not include a player’s career after he was traded from the team that drafted him. So, for example, Jared Allen’s value to the Chiefs was much lower because it did not consider his career after he was traded to the Vikings.

BREAKING DOWN NFL DRAFT SUCCESS

Based on this metric, here is how all draft picks over the past 20 years (not including last year) have fared overall:

16.7% Didn’t Play for the Team that Drafted Them.

Most of these are draft picks that didn’t make the team, however, there were a few draft picks that were immediately traded that were of great value- Eli Manning and Philip Rivers for example. But generally these were few and far between so it is safe to say that most in this category (let’s say 16% of the 16.7%) were busts.

37% Were Considered “Useless”

Also known as busts. These are players that had a draft metric of between 0-4, and rarely or never saw the field. Guys like Ryan Leaf, Ryan Mallet and the Vikings’ 1999 1st round pick Dimitrius Underwood, to name a few. These are players that basically did nothing to help the team at all - and represent over a third of all draft picks over the past 20 years.

15.3% Were Considered “Poor”

Still pretty clearly in bust territory. These are players that had underwhelming careers with a draft metric between 5-10, and include some pretty well known busts such as Jamarcus Russell (who scored a 6).

So, if you add up these first three categories of bust (excluding a few draft pick trades that worked out), you come up with just over 68% of all draft picks over the past 20 years have been busts- over two-thirds of all draft picks.

 

 

I would rate coop better than all of those.

 

But to answer my own question:

 

Round Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 1 99.7% 93.5% 83.9% 77.4% 71.0% 2 96.8% 96.1% 83.9% 74.2% 41.9% 3 96.9% 75.1% 62.5% 37.5% 18.8% 4 91.4% 74.3% 54.3% 34.3% 17.2% 5 81.1% 56.8% 37.8% 24.3% 16.2% 6 70.2% 57.5% 35.3% 20.9% 10.6% 7 58.3% 45.8% 31.3% 21.7% 16.7%

Thanks to Joe Mahoney for creating this visual chart.

[mobb_deep 917]

Cool stats of all draft picks to counter a point about first round draft picks.

[Vern357 15]

Huh. I guess the last part is a little hard to read...............

[Law 220]

 

 

Whats the percentage of 1st round picks still on a team at the end the first season? Not that high.

Based on this metric, here is how ALL draft picks over the past 20 years (not including last year) have fared overall:

 

 

Seems like a comparison of two different things.

I stand by my comment that 100% of FIRST round draft picks are on the team that drafted them at the end of their first season.

 

Heck. I'd even go so far as to say it's pretty darn close to 100% they're still there at the end of year two, unless they're a total bust.

[Vikings4ever 496]

 

 

Seems like a comparison of two different things.

I stand by my comment that 100% of FIRST round draft picks are on the team that drafted them at the end of their first season.

 

Heck. I'd even go so far as to say it's pretty darn close to 100% they're still there at the end of year two, unless they're a total bust.

It's an older link, but:

 

https://www.milehighreport.com/2014/5/13/5713996/how-long-does-the-average-draft-pick-stick-around

 

.3% of first rounders aren't on the team to start their first year. Only 6.5% aren't to start year 2.

 

Usually someone has to bust hard for such a scenario, but occasionally there's injuries, or a coaching/GM change that makes previous draft picks expendable.

[mobb_deep 917]

It's an older link, but:

 

https://www.milehighreport.com/2014/5/13/5713996/how-long-does-the-average-draft-pick-stick-around

 

.3% of first rounders aren't on the team to start their first year. Only 6.5% aren't to start year 2.

 

Usually someone has to bust hard for such a scenario, but occasionally there's injuries, or a coaching/GM change that makes previous draft picks expendable.

So basically 1 of every 300 or around one every 10 years. Pretty close to 16.7% IMO.

[Brutal Brutus 182]

So basically 1 of every 300 or around one every 10 years. Pretty close to 16.7% IMO.

Seems like a simple rounding error.

[justforbeer 39]

I think there’s a player out there that may change a lot of views about this trade.

 

RANDY FREAKING MOSS

 

Remember when he played for the Raiders and sucked, and he went to this other team and all the sudden had 23 touchdowns. The previous year with Raiders he had three! Oh yeah that was Tom Brady and the patriots. Well.... My point, a change of scenery can make a huge difference to player.

 

 

I think Cooper is a lot better than dez Bryant, Plus this year he has 0 drops. He’s got two weeks before their next game and I think the last eight weeks of the season he will get near a thousand yards rec. Look at his playoff schedule!

 

W13-16

Saints

Eagles

Colts

Buccaneers

 

Lol!

[jimaveli 119]

I wish people would stop comparing ever kinda big and fast receiver to Randy Moss. Point taken, but Cooper is not Moss in his wildest dreams. Even with shrooms.

[jackjohn 31]

I wish people would stop comparing ever kinda big and fast receiver to Randy Moss. Point taken, but Cooper is not Moss in his wildest dreams. Even with shrooms.

To add to this, Garret isnt even in the same league as Belicheck

[ThatDude 9]

Outside of our QB situation Garrett and Linehan are the biggest factors for why Cooper wont do much. They lack the ability to think outside of the box and adjust to the skill set they have on the team

[jimaveli 119]

People swear that Dak sucks. Some of those same people are still making excuses for Eli. And Alex Smith. And Blake Bortles. I am in the middle of all of this losing my mind and wondering if my eyes dont work after all of these years of watching football.

 

Aka maybe I am in the midst of making excuses for Dak? He was never as great as folks thought when things were going well. And he is not as bad as the detractors say now. He is decent with some limitations. Like most qbs, he is not going to turn water to wine alone.

[Kopy 489]

devil's advocate time, because i'm too depressed right now and am trying to find a silver lining.

 

an awful lot of people--including a lot of serious analysts--thought DAL should have drafted ridley in '18. WR was an even bigger need for '19, but the top-end prospects just aren't there. cooper and ridley are the same age, but cooper is substantially better and has a demonstrated history of WR1 production. and he's the right kind of receiver for dak--a route/separation guy instead of a sandlot/contested catch guy. so what the cowboys did here was to draft a top WR prospect with their '19 1st. assuming that the due diligence was good, the only measurable downside to this move (compared to drafting ridley in '18) would be the loss of 3 years of rookie scale cap space.

 

 

so if DAL wasn't intending to draft a QB in '19, this wasn't an absolutely terrible move. if nothing else, it takes away the "no weapons" excuse from dak, as his 2nd contract negotiations loom.

Is it actually far fetched to think the Raiders were dysfunctional. And Carr isn't the franchise QB, they thought he was?

Cooper had a great college career. He's already posted a relly good pro season, to show he can do it at this level also. He's still a kid, so time is on his side. Plus I've never heard anything bad about him as a person.

 

Yes, I know they over paid for him. But let's see it In action. It could work out.

[Kopy 489]

I will disagree on the 19 prospects not being top-end however.

For WR, it's a good, deep class. (Unlike RB & TE positions this year).

And Harry, Brown, and Edwards all look like not only very good wr's (worst case scenario). But legitimate #1 potential guys.

[TimmySmith 2,782]

People swear that Dak sucks. Some of those same people are still making excuses for Eli. And Alex Smith. And Blake Bortles. I am in the middle of all of this losing my mind and wondering if my eyes dont work after all of these years of watching football.

 

Aka maybe I am in the midst of making excuses for Dak? He was never as great as folks thought when things were going well. And he is not as bad as the detractors say now. He is decent with some limitations. Like most qbs, he is not going to turn water to wine alone.

Dak is a huge issue for the Cowboys. He is a fine NFL QB, but certainly not top 15 in the league, he and Garrett work ok together at best, and his contract is coming up. They have no choice but to send Garrett packing after this season, then I could see the Cowboys franchising Prescott in 2020.

[Cruzer 1,992]

Those of you adamant Dak is okay and not part of the problem are not paying attention.

 

You need to stop reading Monday morning stat lines and actually watch the tape.

[jimaveli 119]

Part of the problem? I could see that. Still, I would like to see him have a real weapon on the outside for him to lean on before earth decides that he cannot play at all in a league where Tanny was starting a few weeks ago and people with their jobs on the line are counting on Crab Legs Winston or Bortles.

[Kopy 489]

Part of the problem? I could see that. Still, I would like to see him have a real weapon on the outside for him to lean on before earth decides that he cannot play at all in a league where Tanny was starting a few weeks ago and people with their jobs on the line are counting on Crab Legs Winston or Bortles.

I bet Buffalo would love to have Dak and Cooper right now.

[jimaveli 119]

Yeah. Buffalo is Shady and the worst offensive roster in the league.

[ralphster 274]

A first in the 12-18 range is a lot for Cooper, who's value is the lowest its ever been.

 

But the WR corps in Dallas is beyond terrible so the need was real. Saw a few compare paying the 1st next year for their WR1 now and agree - IF it works out.

 

Cooper is still young with WR1 bonafides. Read today how Carr has lost the locker room in Oakland, its possible getting Cooper into a new situation fixes his issues.

 

I doubt the move does much for fantasy, but I believe it's a good move for the Cowboys.

[Big Guy 1,400]

The NFL is simply entertainment, and we're getting quite the show this year.

 

Ultimately, I think Cooper will help the offensive balance. We shall see.

 

But by all means, a 1st round pick was far too much and the wrong approach to the solution IMO.

[sirensong 111]

plenty of additional analysis is coming out, as DAL fans try to sort out the ramifications of the deal. this story: https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2018/10/23/18012996/amari-cooper-trade-how-he-would-stack-up-against-a-first-round-draft-pick-for-dallas starts digging into the idea of cooper as the cowboys' 2019 1st round pick, and it raises some interesting arguments.

 

-WR draft picks are the least reliable, with more busts than any other position.

 

-rookie WRs almost never make major contributions right away, and it normally takes 3 years to fully develop. the post claims that this is why the patriots trade picks for established WRs instead of drafting their own.

 

-the top of the 2019 rookie WR class is not very good. it's a deep draft, but little high-end talent.

 

-cooper will almost certainly outperform any '19 or '20 rookie WR during those years, and for some time thereafter.

 

 

the conclusion that follows from this is that if DAL wanted to add a WR1, this deal was much more efficient, with less risk, than drafting a rookie with the same pick.

[jgcrawfish 232]

It tells me the Cowboys aspire to be the Raiders and the Gruden's owned the Cowboys twice in two days.

[Big Guy 1,400]

plenty of additional analysis is coming out, as DAL fans try to sort out the ramifications of the deal. this story: https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2018/10/23/18012996/amari-cooper-trade-how-he-would-stack-up-against-a-first-round-draft-pick-for-dallas starts digging into the idea of cooper as the cowboys' 2019 1st round pick, and it raises some interesting arguments.

 

-WR draft picks are the least reliable, with more busts than any other position.

 

-rookie WRs almost never make major contributions right away, and it normally takes 3 years to fully develop. the post claims that this is why the patriots trade picks for established WRs instead of drafting their own.

 

-the top of the 2019 rookie WR class is not very good. it's a deep draft, but little high-end talent.

 

-cooper will almost certainly outperform any '19 or '20 rookie WR during those years, and for some time thereafter.

 

 

the conclusion that follows from this is that if DAL wanted to add a WR1, this deal was much more efficient, with less risk, than drafting a rookie with the same pick.

 

good points

 

And as an optimist, that's how I'm going to look at it.

[jgcrawfish 232]

 

good points

 

And as an optimist, Cowboys fan in denial/apologist that's how I'm going to look at it.

fixed!

[sirensong 111]

fixed!

 

why? what is your actual argument here? cooper was a universally acknowledged top-10 prospect coming out, who then went on to be one of the few rookie WRs who actually produced at WR1 levels in his first 2 years. that puts him in elite company, with guys like julio and green. he then had a crappy year...coincidentally during the same year in which his QB showed massive regression after a major injury and began to check everything down.

 

so are you claiming that all this demonstrated ability just vanished? are you saying he caught a disease or something? he just forgot his elite separation skills?

 

there are arguments to be made against the deal, but those are more about dak than cooper.

[tubby_mcgee 685]

Here is why I don't think it helps.

Dak's problem, in my opinion, is ...he can't pull the trigger. He looks off open guys for "super duper open" guys. They aren't there. I feel like he thinks he needs 5 yards of separation before he'll pull the trigger.

So, he drops back, looks off receivers, gets happy feet, moves a bit, then finally throws the ball, but late...so coverage is there.

I don't think he see's the field before the snap. The good QB's will know where they are likely going with the ball before the snap. I don't think he does.

 

Bottom line, he doesn't pull the trigger, and Amari isn't going to make him start pulling the trigger.

[kilroy69 990]

Cooper led the league in drops (18) and drop rate (20.0 percent) in his rookie season (2015), but then seemed to get past the issue in 2016, dropping only four passes. In 2017, Cooper again led the league in drop rate (17.2 percent). Not only are these numbers bad, but theyre historically bad.

Since 2007, there have only been three players to see at least 100 targets and post a drop rate of 17 percent or worse: Braylon Edwards (2007 and 2008), Greg Little (2011), and Cooper (2015 and 2017).

 

Dak is not super accurate as it is. Does he really need a wr that drops the ball when he does get it to him?

[Brutal Brutus 182]

Cooper led the league in drops (18) and drop rate (20.0 percent) in his rookie season (2015), but then seemed to get past the issue in 2016, dropping only four passes. In 2017, Cooper again led the league in drop rate (17.2 percent). Not only are these numbers bad, but theyre historically bad.

Since 2007, there have only been three players to see at least 100 targets and post a drop rate of 17 percent or worse: Braylon Edwards (2007 and 2008), Greg Little (2011), and Cooper (2015 and 2017).

 

Dak is not super accurate as it is. Does he really need a wr that drops the ball when he does get it to him?

Dez wasn't exactly Mr. Softhands so he should be used to it.

[justforbeer 39]

0 drops this year.

 

a clear-cut number one wide receiver.

 

My comparison of Moss was to show that being on a different team with a different quarterback may change everything for a very talented WR. Dallas can certainly support a #1wr to succed.

 

His value is low, and can only go up from here.

 

I say it is it 50-50. If it works out you’ll be a lot stronger in the playoffs with him. I am betting on it!