Is Chris Johnson being seriously underrated?

[envoy9 5]

I just started my Fantasy research for our late Aug draft, and Chris Johnson is popping up as an outlier for me. We're in a .5 PPR league, and looking at last year's RBs, he was the 8th overall scorer. Now he moves to Jets who have a better line and generally are a better rushing team. I get the fact that Chris Ivory (assuming he stays healthy and that's a big IF) will vulture... but even so, I see Johnson generally going in the Late 5th and Early 6th in most early drafts. Even if he has the same production as last year, as the 8th overall RB, that puts him in late 2nd round, at least. If his production increases, which I think you have to entertain as a possiblity, shouldn't he be viewed even better?

 

Obviously, I'm missing something here, so I would be interested in understanding why he is going so late. Most other stuff is making sense to me when I look at 2014 so far, but this one is perplexing. I don't want to overpay for him if there is something I'm missing.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

The biggest issue is his complete lack of consistency. I like his first matchup, but his sched is pretty tough.

[MarshallHahn 0]

I dont have much interest in him. He has lost enough of his speed (which is all he really had) to be just above avg in that category. They have a good Oline but NO passing game and I really dont expect much from their Offense.

 

Now IF Vick and Chris Johnson were back in their primes and on the same Offense, then that would have been something fun to watch...but it isnt 6 years ago.

 

If I could get him 6th round I guess that isnt bad...depending what other RBs are left.

If I got

Rd 1- AP/Forte

Rd2- Rodgers/Stafford

Rd3- Marshall/Nelson

Rd 4 Spiller/Morris/Ellington

Rd 5-Garcon/Crabtree

Rd 6- CJohnson

 

Id feel pretty good about that. If I had to take him Rd 4 instead of Spiller, I wouldnt like that as much at all. I guess Round 5 is about right but Id rather Rd 6.

[envoy9 5]

So you both are basically saying your expecting a drop from 2013 production despite (or because) of the move?

[vrabinec 19]

I had a shot at him in my last draft in the 4th. He was there with the Gore, J.Bell, Bush, Spiller group. I narrowed it down to him and Spiller, but I went with Spiller. Johnson has had 300+ touches every year he has played, and he's not that big. I'm just afraid his tires are getting bald. Had Spiller not been there, I would've taken him, but I'd be nervous all year that he starts putting up 3.8 per carry and Rex goes with the bigger back.

[weepaws 2,456]

I still see him just like I did last season , a number two rb.

[vrabinec 19]

I always wonder what everyone considers the numbers that make the difference between a #1 and a #2 RB. If you go C. Johnson and Graham with your first two picks, your choice for your #1 is gonna be something like Sankey, Johnson, and Spiller.

[Kent 228]

He's being rated properly. All he is is an upside guy now. You don't reach for him. Maybe if he wasn't on the Jets he'd have better value but ugh. The Jets offense is going to be ugly yet again.

[ralphster 274]

The Bills and Pats are underrated defenses and CJ has been known to put in less than stellar effort if he's not happy. If Ivory cuts to much into his workload and/or the Jets aren't winning CJ is just as likely to punt and start going down before contact as he did in the past. Let someone else take the risk. I see exactly zero top ten finishes for CJ going forward.

[loaf 0]

isn't Chris Ivory the goalline back?

CJ?K has some pretty thin tread on those tires.

[Kent 228]

Could we argue Ivory is a better RB period right now?

[IGotWorms 3,309]

He's a good buy at his current ADP.

[envoy9 5]

Well, I've got the #1 pick and I'm going with Charles... For my 2-3 I'll take best available, but I'm going to target him with one of my 4-5 picks, which will be slightly above his adp. I'm just not seeing a rationale for a big drop. In 2013 his ppr stats were 8th overall, making him a #1 RB. In 2012, he was 16th overall making him a solid #2. I could be killing myself planning on overdrafting, but I don't see the reason for his poor adp projection unless you can really say he's heading for a huge drop off.

[AnaheimRams 28]

He's a player I'm targeting in an auction league as a good value... but I wouldn't want to hafta start him every week. The inconsistency is the killer... and last year was the worst fantasy performance he's had in his career.

[weepaws 2,456]

On the fftoday stats site they show C Johnson in ppr ranked 14th last season .

[Breesman32 11]

I think the underrated back is Ray Rice. Maybe TRich but the colts need to commit to him. One of those three are sure to have a strong year. Personally I'm probably going to look to the WW for a standout back during the season.

[Serpent 51]

I like him a lot at his ADP. Rex Ryan teams always run a lot, even when they don't have an RB. Say what you will about Chris Johnson, but he's still at worst a mediocre RB in the NFL. With the volume he's probably going to get, and the fact that the Jets traditionally have strong run blocking lines, he should actually do quite well. Shouldn't be a bad RB2, and where you get him that's a good risk-value to take. His ceiling is still high enough for RB1, but with a floor of a high RB2 going as a low RB2/RB3 by ADP.

 

I think people just don't realize how few good RBs there are now, and how little the difference is between most of them.