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The Football Guru

Instant Fantasy Analysis - QB Baker Mayfield, Browns

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Mayfield has been described recently as a more mobile Drew Brees, and that is exactly what he's going to need to be to justify this selection. The 2017 Heisman Trophy winner is as accurate as they come in the short and intermediate range and he can make plays with his legs, but I am of the belief accommodations - such as a heavy use of RPOs (run-pass options) and shotgun - will need to be made in order to help him succeed - not exactly what fans want to hear about a No. 1 overall pick. The good news is that Mayfield is known for his competitiveness and leadership abilities, which may be exactly what the Browns as they try to continue the process of escaping the stench of 1-31 over the last two seasons. Cleveland's upgraded supporting cast and Mayfield's legs should help the former walk-on be a worthy fantasy QB2 the minute he overtakes Tyrod Taylor, but the uncertainty of when that move happens figures to make Mayfield a late-round fantasy pick at best.

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T Taylor will be holding the clip board come week one of the regular season.

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The end of what the Guru said, is why he is the best QB for the Browns from this draft.

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I wouldnt discount Taylor yet, he can play. But when you make this kind of investment Im of the mind that you play him.

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I wouldnt discount Taylor yet, he can play. But when you make this kind of investment Im of the mind that you play him.

 

Oh, I'm not discounting Taylor. Notice I didn't say anything about Mayfield starting Week 1 because I have a lot of respect for Taylor. With that said, I think you nailed it with the second part of what you said. I highly doubt we are looking at a situation in which Mayfield sits all season long like Carson Palmer did.

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I think Mayfield will be week one starter.

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I don't know about this draft. I actually like Mayfield but to come away without Barkley or Chubb?

 

I mean its ballsy of Dorsey since he basically called his shot and flipped off the world but wow this is the kind of decisions that get you fired in one year instead of two or three like most GM's get.

 

 

 

 

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I don't know about this draft. I actually like Mayfield but to come away without Barkley or Chubb?

 

I mean its ballsy of Dorsey since he basically called his shot and flipped off the world but wow this is the kind of decisions that get you fired in one year instead of two or three like most GM's get.

 

 

 

 

 

i think the same. the mayfield pick is a risk/reward move, which is exactly what the brownies need. but when you have a chance to elevate any position group to god mode, it's silly not to do it. chubb + garrett + lawson would be a murderer's row on edge that every QB in the league would fear to face. or you pick up the supremely talented RB that will take a ton of pressure off your QB gamble. either of those is exactly the kind of pick you want to pair with your big roll of the dice with mayfield. instead they got a good corner, but not a transcendent talent.

 

i don't like those picks in conjunction with each other.

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Chubb at four for the Browns should have been the pick.

 

But I do like the Mayfield pick, he could be awful, but I think he has the highest ceiling of all the qbs.

 

And I think the Browns couldn't resist making him the first pick.

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He was considered like a 2nd rounder last year. So he came back for sr. season. He had a very similar year, then all of a sudden is considered the top pick?

 

I dont hate Baker but I think he gets overrated.

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I don't know about this draft. I actually like Mayfield but to come away without Barkley or Chubb?

 

I mean its ballsy of Dorsey since he basically called his shot and flipped off the world but wow this is the kind of decisions that get you fired in one year instead of two or three like most GM's get.

 

 

 

 

I agree but the counter argument is that GMs shouldnt make the safe call just to save their own skin.

 

That said I think the Browns blew it.

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Browns get their latest bust. Hoorah. Wasnt he like the 4th best QB?

It is mind boggling to me they didn't go with Allen and Chubb. They could have traded back multiple slots and gotten Fitzpatrick or even Ward if they love him so much.

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It is mind boggling to me they didn't go with Allen and Chubb. They could have traded back multiple slots and gotten Fitzpatrick or even Ward if they love him so much.

According to what? Random expert mock drafts?

 

They took their guy at each pick.

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It is mind boggling to me they didn't go with Allen and Chubb. They could have traded back multiple slots and gotten Fitzpatrick or even Ward if they love him so much.

Josh Allen is the worst QB prospect to ever come out. He won't be in the NFL in 5 years.

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Josh Allen is the worst QB prospect to ever come out. He won't be in the NFL in 5 years.

Oh come now. Youre saying hes Jamarcus Russell bad? Ryan leaf bad?

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Josh Allen is the worst QB prospect to ever come out. He won't be in the NFL in 5 years.

Why, because he didn't throw nearly as many high % screen passes as Mayfield in college?

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Josh Allen is the worst QB prospect to ever come out. He won't be in the NFL in 5 years.

I'm not an Allen guy, but that statement seems a little on the extreme side to me. However, with that said. As soon as Buffalo took him. I did get a Rob Johnson 2.O vibe.

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Nope, I'm just really suprised.

Ward and Fitz both were elite prospects coming in. Both were mocked to 4 or 5 to the broncos in maby previous mocks.

 

Sure we can always say a team MAY have got the same guy with a trade down. But that is easy to assume.

 

If they wanted a corner they took the best cover corner in the draft.

 

I don't see the shock

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I don't know about this draft. I actually like Mayfield but to come away without Barkley or Chubb?

 

I mean its ballsy of Dorsey since he basically called his shot and flipped off the world but wow this is the kind of decisions that get you fired in one year instead of two or three like most GM's get.

 

 

 

 

Dorsey was a good GM in KC. Brought in Al Smith, drafted Mahommes. He built a winner there. I cant pretend to know who will really succeed out of the top 5 QBs but I do think Dorsey knows what hes doing.

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I really like the Mayfield pick, and I truly believe he will be the Browns week 1 starter.

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If they wanted a corner they took the best cover corner in the draft.

 

 

At 5'10" 183, I don't think he is worthy of the #4 pick going into the NFL at corner. They could have just gotten Jackson or Fitzpatrick later and another couple picks on a trade down possibily for their def backfield.

 

I don't blame any team for drafting who they want though. This type of banter is for our entertainment only. Noone else cares

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He was considered like a 2nd rounder last year. So he came back for sr. season. He had a very similar year, then all of a sudden is considered the top pick?

 

I dont hate Baker but I think he gets overrated.

 

i don't know you at all, but this sounds like measurables-think. processing and accuracy are the QB differences at the NFL level, not size. guys who can process and fit have sustained success. guys who can't might have a good season or two, but can't keep it going.

 

i could see it if he had a decent 2016 and a decent 2017, or if he had mediocre arm talent. but his accuracy was off the charts in both years, he can make all the throws, and he clearly sees and processes the whole field.

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i don't know you at all, but this sounds like measurables-think. processing and accuracy are the QB differences at the NFL level, not size. guys who can process and fit have sustained success. guys who can't might have a good season or two, but can't keep it going.

 

i could see it if he had a decent 2016 and a decent 2017, or if he had mediocre arm talent. but his accuracy was off the charts in both years, he can make all the throws, and he clearly sees and processes the whole field.

Im not sure your point in relation to the post of mine you quoted

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Im not sure your point in relation to the post of mine you quoted

 

you were talking about college production vs prospect status. in your opinion, why would he be only a 2nd round prospect other than his size? is it his arm talent? his ability to process? his intangibles?

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i don't know you at all, but this sounds like measurables-think. processing and accuracy are the QB differences at the NFL level, not size. guys who can process and fit have sustained success. guys who can't might have a good season or two, but can't keep it going.

 

i could see it if he had a decent 2016 and a decent 2017, or if he had mediocre arm talent. but his accuracy was off the charts in both years, he can make all the throws, and he clearly sees and processes the whole field.

 

Very good points.

 

As for the first part of your post, just look at RG the third.

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Oh come now. Youre saying hes Jamarcus Russell bad? Ryan leaf bad?

yes

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I'm not an Allen guy, but that statement seems a little on the extreme side to me. However, with that said. As soon as Buffalo took him. I did get a Rob Johnson 2.O vibe.

 

 

Rashaad Penny averaged 7.5 yards per carry at San Diego State.

 

Josh Allen averaged 6.7 yards per passing attempt in the same conference.

 

Josh Allen’s completion percentage — even adjusted for dropped passes — in 2017 at Wyoming was 61.1%. College football average is 65%.

 

Josh Allen's accuracy is a HUGE issue as it correlates to a bigger bust rate in the pros. JJ Zachariason put together a nice article here on NumberFire: https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/19669/how-big-of-a-deal-is-josh-allen-s-low-college-completion-percentage

In the last 20 years, there have been 8 1st round QBs with sub 57% career completion percentage. Boller - 47.8% Leaf - 53.8% Druckenmiller - 53.8% Locker - 54% Harrington - 55.2% McNown - 55.5% Vick - 56% Akili Smith - 56.6% Who's Next? Josh Allen - 56.2%

 

 

 

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Rashaad Penny averaged 7.5 yards per carry at San Diego State.

 

Josh Allen averaged 6.7 yards per passing attempt in the same conference.

 

Josh Allens completion percentage even adjusted for dropped passes in 2017 at Wyoming was 61.1%. College football average is 65%.

 

Josh Allen's accuracy is a HUGE issue as it correlates to a bigger bust rate in the pros. JJ Zachariason put together a nice article here on NumberFire: https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/19669/how-big-of-a-deal-is-josh-allen-s-low-college-completion-percentage

In the last 20 years, there have been 8 1st round QBs with sub 57% career completion percentage. Boller - 47.8% Leaf - 53.8% Druckenmiller - 53.8% Locker - 54% Harrington - 55.2% McNown - 55.5% Vick - 56% Akili Smith - 56.6% Who's Next? Josh Allen - 56.2%

 

 

 

How many less screen passes were thrown by Allen vs. Mayfield?

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How many less screen passes were thrown by Allen vs. Mayfield?

Per Evan Silva: https://mobile.twitter.com/evansilva/status/983344433180692480

 

"A popular defense of Josh Allen's low completion % is that he didn't throw screen passes. However, Allen threw a higher rate of passes 0-5 yards from the line of scrimmage (30%) than Darnold, Rosen & Mayfield."

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Per Evan Silva: https://mobile.twitter.com/evansilva/status/983344433180692480

 

"A popular defense of Josh Allen's low completion % is that he didn't throw screen passes. However, Allen threw a higher rate of passes 0-5 yards from the line of scrimmage (30%) than Darnold, Rosen & Mayfield."

That's because he has a strong enough arm to throw those quick slants on a rope. Completely different pass than a screen pass.

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Mayfield was by far best qb available bc of accuracy and being a leader. If anyone saw the clip of him vs Josh Allen during senior bowl accuracy drills in practice it was comical. The Denzel Ward pick was mind blowing at 4. Chubb is a no brainer high floor high ceiling pick. Denzel ward is 510 and he aint no Deion Sanders. I watched Simmie Cobbs last year for IU abuse him and that guy got didnt even get drafted I dont think. Nick Chubb pick is a high upside pick up to begin the second round. That guy was the #1 guy in country before that knee injury two years. He was cutting into Todd Gurleys reps I believe at UGA when he was a freshman

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Let's pretend both Ward amd Chubb become the best at their positions in the NFL.

 

A top 2 or 3 CB in the league affects opposing offenses by making the offense simply not throw to the receiver they are covering. A top 2 or 3 defensive end in the league causes opposing offenses the need to scheme around various blocking efforts with different personnel on the field for both run and passing downs.

 

A top defensive end is way more valuable to a defense overall. Basically, top CBs can simply be avoided where great DEs cannot be.

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Would agree.

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Let's pretend both Ward amd Chubb become the best at their positions in the NFL.

 

A top 2 or 3 CB in the league affects opposing offenses by making the offense simply not throw to the receiver they are covering. A top 2 or 3 defensive end in the league causes opposing offenses the need to scheme around various blocking efforts with different personnel on the field for both run and passing downs.

 

A top defensive end is way more valuable to a defense overall. Basically, top CBs can simply be avoided where great DEs cannot be.

 

Not going to agree or disagree with this. I think Chubb is the better player, so that is who I would have drafted.

 

At any rate, I saw/heard where DC Gregg Williams opted for Ward over Chubb for two main reasons: 1) his defenses play more press coverage than any other team and he thought Ward was the best at it in the draft and 2) he seems to be pretty high on Emmanuel Ogbah.

 

Here's the quote (link):

 

Sodium pentathol, and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, came up in the wake of the Denzel Ward pick. Truth serum. My question to Dorsey on Friday morning: “If we gave Gregg Williams sodium pentathol right now, who would he have said he wanted with the fourth pick—Denzel Ward or Bradley Chubb?” Dorsey pulled out his cell phone and rang Williams. I asked him the question. Williams: “Ward. The reason is our need for a press cover cornerback. Denzel probably plays that position as well as anyone I’ve seen in college football in some time. We probably play the most press of any team in the league. There’s another reason. I’ve got a video of 28 snaps of Myles Garrett pass-rushes last year where he gets within two steps or less of the quarterback when the ball comes out. Basically, we aren’t covering long enough to let him get to the quarterback. Myles and others—especially [defensive end] Emmanuel Ogbah—will get more chances because of Denzel.” Ogbah, Williams said, was a major reason why the Browns went Ward over Chubb. “Ogbah’s a rising star in this league,” Williams said. “He’s got a chance to be Chubb.” High praise.

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Not going to agree or disagree with this. I think Chubb is the better player, so that is who I would have drafted.

 

At any rate, I saw/heard where DC Gregg Williams opted for Ward over Chubb for two main reasons: 1) his defenses play more press coverage than any other team and he thought Ward was the best at it in the draft and 2) he seems to be pretty high on Emmanuel Ogbah.

 

Here's the quote (link):

 

Sodium pentathol, and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, came up in the wake of the Denzel Ward pick. Truth serum. My question to Dorsey on Friday morning: “If we gave Gregg Williams sodium pentathol right now, who would he have said he wanted with the fourth pick—Denzel Ward or Bradley Chubb?” Dorsey pulled out his cell phone and rang Williams. I asked him the question. Williams: “Ward. The reason is our need for a press cover cornerback. Denzel probably plays that position as well as anyone I’ve seen in college football in some time. We probably play the most press of any team in the league. There’s another reason. I’ve got a video of 28 snaps of Myles Garrett pass-rushes last year where he gets within two steps or less of the quarterback when the ball comes out. Basically, we aren’t covering long enough to let him get to the quarterback. Myles and others—especially [defensive end] Emmanuel Ogbah—will get more chances because of Denzel.” Ogbah, Williams said, was a major reason why the Browns went Ward over Chubb. “Ogbah’s a rising star in this league,” Williams said. “He’s got a chance to be Chubb.” High praise.

 

 

quality post--thanks for that.

 

:thumbsup:

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Chubb and Garrett together and you won't need too worry so much about how long your DB are giving the pass rush.

 

The pass rush will help the Dbs. more then the other way around.

 

Ogbah could be Chubb like , but nothing like the real thing.

 

I think they might regreat passing on Chubb.

 

At the same time, watch out for Miller and Chubb, along with those two together plus some other moves that the Broncos did this off season they are the team too beat going into this next season in the AFC west.

 

Thanks for the post.

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I don't get down on teams for taking who they like, but all I can say is, good for Denver. Miller and Chubb is looking like a pretty good duo on an already very good defense. My bet is Cleveland regrets this big time and Denver goes to the playoffs now that they have a pretty good QB, a top Def, a couple more pretty good draft picks in Sutton, Freeman, and Yiadom. Wow, best draft of the year as far as outlook.

 

I'm buying in on Denver def. for fantasy this year and possibly on Freeman and Sutton for long term but yet to determined.

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