Selling High on CJ Spiller?

[Boilermaker04 11]

Here's my thought: if you have Spiller, don't sell him at all. Enjoy the 4-6 weeks you're going to probably win in the meantime!

 

Great point. The fantasy season is short, take advantage of opportunity like this when it falls into your lap. Might just be enough to secure you a playoff spot early and you can trade him later.

 

I've been about as down on Spiller as you can be until the end of last season when I watched him play at a high level repeatedly. Crazy potential, reminds me a lot of Charles.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

FBN - Our boy is a stud. Some of these guy will get it, some won't. We'll be the one's laughing and counting the $$$ at the end of the season.

Spiller is decent. He's no Ridley, but he's decent.

[gtthom86 5]

Doesn't matter how you think Spiller should be employed. The fact is, when FJax has been healthy, he's had the lion's share of touches. If FJax returns in a month, I don't see how this is suddenly a 70-30 split for Spiller....especially if BUF is somehow competitive. If BUF has any shot at reaching the playoffs, I think FJax will be involved in more than a secondary role. History has shown, whether wise or not, Gailey would prefer to ride the 31 year old back than Spiller. And I say that as a Spiller owner in both my leagues. All I want is clarity in this situation, and honestly I'd prefer Spiller take the reigns here because I have him in both leagues, and FJax in only one.

 

But what I want to happen and what will actually happen might be two different things. Unless Spiller carries this Bills team on his back, and they become a totally different team with him carrying the load, I just don't see how they phase FJax out completely. To think otherwise is just overly optimistic.

 

Also, you caught "sh!t" about your "strategy" because you touted it as the best way to win a league. Sorry, but if you need an injury to make your team whole you're relying on luck more than guile. Looks like it might pay off for you, so congrats. But I remember saying that other savvy owners would still target RBs later in the draft despite going RB early. I've got Foster/SJax/Julio/Hakeem/Ryan/Gates....and Spiller. And in another league Forte/Martin/Graham/Julio/Harvin.....and Spiller. And it sounds like that's what the OP did too. I think that strategy still offers the best shot at a balanced team.

 

 

Listen, FJAX is the man and has earned the starting role each of the last two years, but the gailey/nix regime in buffalo over drafted spiller in their first draft for a reason. If he runs away with the job, they won't hand it back to freddie. Thats a big if, especially with they way the rest of the offense looked vs the jets, but spiller is the young stud here and the job, sooner or later, will be his.

 

He is an obvious hold even if just for the very realistic potential as the fantasy MVP of the first quarter of this season.

[gtthom86 5]

Spiller is decent. He's no Ridley, but he's decent.

 

 

Much rather have spiller. better talent, and placing your bets on any belichick starting RB is a risky proposition over the course of the season.

[FFdemon 0]

I like Spiller. He helped me out last year on a run through the playoffs. I have been offered Spiller for Dez and Mcgahee. I think I'm going to pull the trigger.

My Wr would then be, JJ, Britt, and LaFell. A little thin but I only need two and have high waiver priority for w/e wr darling comes up. My RB's would then be SJax, Ridley, Spiller, Jacquizz and Redman. Thought?

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

Much rather have spiller. better talent, and placing your bets on any belichick starting RB is a risky proposition over the course of the season.

I don't necessarily disagree with you but try selling that to Ditka vs. _____.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I like Spiller. He helped me out last year on a run through the playoffs. I have been offered Spiller for Dez and Mcgahee. I think I'm going to pull the trigger.

My Wr would then be, JJ, Britt, and LaFell. A little thin but I only need two and have high waiver priority for w/e wr darling comes up. My RB's would then be SJax, Ridley, Spiller, Jacquizz and Redman. Thought?

Ahh yes, trading for Dez Bryant. I remember a thread that talked about bad trades from last year. Dez was on a few of those. I think a few were Jordy for Dez. Hey man if you think it's the right thing then go for it. I don't mean to be a D about it but there is 2 full pages of back and forth about what to do with Spiller and other Spiller expectations. If you can't get your answer from there then I don't think you are going to listen to what anyone tells you to do anyway.

[Serpent 51]

Well I was able to get Spiller back in one of the 3 leagues I cut him (waiver priority). Next year I'm not going to watch any preseason football, which is my usual philosophy. Or rather, I will never let a good player's poor preseason performance impact my thinking on them. Had Spiller targeted and had him in all my pay leagues. Cut him in all right before Week 1's games. Blech.

 

Starting him in the 1 league I have him. There aren't too many RBs I would start over him at this point, and it's extremely unlikely to have both of those RBs on your team.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Well I was able to get Spiller back in one of the 3 leagues I cut him (waiver priority). Next year I'm not going to watch any preseason football, which is my usual philosophy. Or rather, I will never let a good player's poor preseason performance impact my thinking on them. Had Spiller targeted and had him in all my pay leagues. Cut him in all right before Week 1's games. Blech.

 

Starting him in the 1 league I have him. There aren't too many RBs I would start over him at this point, and it's extremely unlikely to have both of those RBs on your team.

Well I was planning on drafting him in all of my leagues but his poor performance and their lack of use of him made me only draft him in 3. Of course the 2 leagues I could use him the most in I didn't draft him.

[vegassandwich227 0]

i'm in a similar boat. i have murray, mathews, bjge, and spiller at RB...colston, harvin, stevie j, n wash, and ogletree at wr, ben and luck at qb, celek and rudolph at te. i'm looking to move a RB now to upgrade QB or TE, but since it's week 2, having a tough time getting people to trade because many are still tied to draft slots.

 

i'm targeting rodgers, brees, brady, stafford, gronk, graham...but the only one who has any interest in trading is the brees owners. all others either don't need RB help or just say "it's too early." the brees owner has mjd/a morris at RB, nicks/britt/v jax at WR, v davis at TE, so something may be in the works...but his team in week 1 was just mediocre enough for him to not feel the urgency to trade...so, i may be waiting another week and hoping shanahan screws with morris' production or something.

 

and the fred jax owner is now crippled at rb (cj, fred jax, helu, royster...yuck). but his qb is rivers and te is fred davis, so i have no interest with him, although he wants spiller...his best wr's are aj and cruz, but he's already told me that something like spiller straight up for aj is a definite no, since he sees spiller as "just a 3 week starter."

 

oh well...looks like i'm stuck with 4 solid rb's...could be worse...now, if i could only know which ones to start

[nadnewob 1]

I drafted Spiller in all 4 of my leagues. Anyone with eyes knew he was going to get his shot as some point this season, we are just all blessed that it was week 1.

 

He will dominate for the next 4 or 5 weeks (or longer, with that swelling its still 50/50 FJAX is DONE for the year) and then if FJAX comes back he will be a compliment to Spiller. Buffalo is not going to watch him go off and then relegate him to backup duty.

 

In regards to who you should trade him for... I am holding my lottery ticket and letting it play out. But I am very week at RB. (drafted Megatron and Julio Jones in rounds 1 and 2). So now I'm rolling with Martin and Spiller.

 

If I was going to move him for a WR, I would target a Dez Bryant type.

[TexansWinSB 0]

I drafted Spiller in all 4 of my leagues. Anyone with eyes knew he was going to get his shot as some point this season, we are just all blessed that it was week 1.

 

He will dominate for the next 4 or 5 weeks (or longer, with that swelling its still 50/50 FJAX is DONE for the year) and then if FJAX comes back he will be a compliment to Spiller. Buffalo is not going to watch him go off and then relegate him to backup duty.

 

In regards to who you should trade him for... I am holding my lottery ticket and letting it play out. But I am very week at RB. (drafted Megatron and Julio Jones in rounds 1 and 2). So now I'm rolling with Martin and Spiller.

 

If I was going to move him for a WR, I would target a Dez Bryant type.

 

I wouldn't say that's weak at RB. Before the season I'm sure it looked horrendous, but now I think it could end up being one of the most surprising duos in most leagues.

[nadnewob 1]

I wouldn't say that's weak at RB. Before the season I'm sure it looked horrendous, but now I think it could end up being one of the most surprising duos in most leagues.

 

yeah im looking ok at RB right now. Also have Jonathon Stewart so I should be ok. Roster looks like this:

 

QB: RG3, Rothelisberger, Locker

RB: Martin, Spiller, J Stewart, Ben Tate, Turbin

WR: Megatron, Julio Jones, Britt, Collie

TE: Hernandez, Rudolph

 

Pretty Balanced.

[nadnewob 1]

hold the phone gentleman

 

FJAX owner just offered Sprolea AND Brandon Lloyd for Spiller. Thats a nice haul.... debating.

[vegassandwich227 0]

so the guy in my league who has Fred Jax and who DESPERATELY needs a rb (has CJ and no RB2) refused to consider Spiller for AJ or Cruz...that's fine, he has every right to do that, obviously...but, he instead suggests a fairer trade would be Spiller for Fred Davis or Pettigrew (by the way, I have Celek/Rudolph and we only start 1 TE).

 

he also called me "shady" when i said that i've heard reports on fred jax's timetable ranging from 3-8 weeks, because he's only heard 3-4 weeks...so he's accusing me of making things sound worse in attempt to "fleece" him...

 

had something kind of similar with this guy last year...i really can't hate this guy enough

[Ray_T 587]

#4 RB in fantasy when he took over last year.

 

I am gambling. I will wait the 7 to 10 days when the swelling goes down and bank on FJax being out for the year. Sprained LCL. I don't even know what a LCL is but it can't be good for a RB.

 

I am looking at moving Sproles or DeMarco eventually over Spiller for a top WR. In Texas, so DeMarco might get me a Tier 1 WR. I've got Rice and Sproles w/ Spiller on bench in another league. Bye week issues with week 8 but going 12 and 1 is better than regretting a Spiller trade.

 

I was gung ho in trading him yesterday but I will let these guys pick up A Morris and enjoy Shanahan before I get a top WR for Spiller.

 

 

http://kneepaininfo.com/kneecollateral.html

 

the above link will tell you most of the basics of what you need to know about Jacksons injury.

 

I think Spillers value for keeper leagues is rising fast. for Redraft, he is no more than a backup who can be used as a starter for the next 5-8 weeks.

 

While I do think Jackson may return in 4 weeks, it will be an extra 2-3 weeks until he will be in game shape and productive. At that point, Spillers value will decline to that of a RBBC back. (think Jonathan Stewart, or DeAngelo as the absolute high end in terms of comparable value)

 

There is a chance he earns the starting Nod permanently, but I would think that if this were to happen, it would have happened already. So my thought is that he would have to seriously blow the doors off in terms of production for this to happen. I'm not saying it wont happen, I'm just saying that it appears that Buffalo seems to be committed to Jackson and I dont expect them to change their mind unless the decision is so obvious that they have no choice.

 

This is what I based my decision on.

[Ruckusmh 1]

so the guy in my league who has Fred Jax and who DESPERATELY needs a rb (has CJ and no RB2) refused to consider Spiller for AJ or Cruz...that's fine, he has every right to do that, obviously...but, he instead suggests a fairer trade would be Spiller for Fred Davis or Pettigrew (by the way, I have Celek/Rudolph and we only start 1 TE).

 

he also called me "shady" when i said that i've heard reports on fred jax's timetable ranging from 3-8 weeks, because he's only heard 3-4 weeks...so he's accusing me of making things sound worse in attempt to "fleece" him...

 

had something kind of similar with this guy last year...i really can't hate this guy enough

So just start Spiller and enjoy the ride...

[Matt Mueller 146]

hold the phone gentleman

 

FJAX owner just offered Sprolea AND Brandon Lloyd for Spiller. Thats a nice haul.... debating.

 

Sproles and Lloyd? Depending upon your needs that seems more than fair...

[Ray_T 587]

so the guy in my league who has Fred Jax and who DESPERATELY needs a rb (has CJ and no RB2) refused to consider Spiller for AJ or Cruz...that's fine, he has every right to do that, obviously...but, he instead suggests a fairer trade would be Spiller for Fred Davis or Pettigrew (by the way, I have Celek/Rudolph and we only start 1 TE).

 

he also called me "shady" when i said that i've heard reports on fred jax's timetable ranging from 3-8 weeks, because he's only heard 3-4 weeks...so he's accusing me of making things sound worse in attempt to "fleece" him...

 

had something kind of similar with this guy last year...i really can't hate this guy enough

so what. it may be his negotiating tactic. I'd send a link to the report that says 3-8 weeks.

 

hes the one who needs your player. not the other way around.

 

That being said, Cruz or AJ may be a bit much to pay for Spiller unless he's been declared the permanent starter and has 3 or 4 starts with great production under his belt.

 

but I'm not sure I'd accept a TE in return unless you desperately needed one. His actual value is somewhere in between. You may want to negotiate it out.

 

On a side note: if he is gonna insult you and tell you you're lying, he may not be a person you wanna trade with anyways. I personally try not to trade with people who go at things that way unless I have no choice in the matter, and this doesn't appear to be the case here.

 

All I'm saying is if hes that much of a jerk, dont trade with him. let him rot in purgatory with an injured RB. Next time he talks to you he will be more respectful in his dealings (I would hope)

 

Just food for thought.

[Ray_T 587]

Sproles and Lloyd? Depending upon your needs that seems more than fair...

That is reasonable. if you need or have use of those players.

 

it probably depends on your team. but I'd definitely agree the offer is fair.

[thesitedoc 5]

If you have CJ Spiller and he can start for you, then hold onto to him

 

If you have depth at RB and don't need to start him and can't maximize return talent in a trade, then hold onto him

 

Either way, your odds of winning are better by holding onto him.

 

If your IMPROVE your team by starting him or you WEAKEN your opponents team by leaving him shallow at RB, you still have the advantage when you hold onto him. Both are valid paths to victory.

[aaaa 0]

Here's an interestingly negative take on Spiller from the guys at numberFire.

 

C.J. Spiller might have been the surprise of week 1, coming in for an injured Fred Jackson and setting the Jets' defense on fire en route to a... 20 point loss. Well then. Spiller had 169 yards on 14 carries for a 12.1 yard per carry average. Before last Sunday, Spiller had finished with an 8.0 yard per carry average on more than five carries exactly zero times in his career, and he only hit the 7.0 ypc mark once - week 15 against the Dolphins, when he had 91 yards on 12 carries. Even Spiller's supposed electric ability is a bit overblown; before his 56-yard carry on Sunday, his longest in two NFL seasons had been only 38 yards. His rushing TD on Sunday now gives him a grand total of five in 31 career games played with 12 starts, and his 100-yard game was only the second of his career. Yet, everybody's anointing him top-five RB status... why exactly? I've never been to Buffalo, so I assume you would need something to get excited about up there, but this is clearly not it. Until he proves that he can be an every down back, I'm being extremely cautious with starting C.J. Spiller. He is the #23 RB on our board this week for a reason.

 

http://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/71/top-fantasy-football-player-trends-week-2

[Ray_T 587]

Here's an interestingly negative take on Spiller from the guys at numberFire.

 

 

 

http://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/71/top-fantasy-football-player-trends-week-2

There are points to consider.

 

1) if your team is down a bunch of points, how well do you think your opponent will defend the run? Probably not as well as they will when the game is close.

2) I dont think it's typical to expect a RB to get 8+ YPC ever, so the fact he did it just means he had a career game.

 

but what he ignores is that spiller played well down the stretch last year and this just reinforces that he has some talent and ability.

 

I agree it's premature to call him a top 5 back, but it's not premature to be excited about him. He has shown enough that I'm convinced he will be a star one day. for me it's just a question of when.

 

Discouraging is that Spiller wasnt able to win the starting job after finishing the season so strong. This leads me to believe that the team is committed to Jackson. so unless Spiller has 3 or 4 more games like week 1, he may be relegated to backup or a RBBC situation when Jackson returns.

 

Long term I think he will be a stud, but I would move cautiously and would not overpay for him in a redraft league.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Trying to trade for him in my big money league, no go so far. I really hope not drafting Spiller doesn't end up being what costs me the championship in this league. It seems I am off by 1 focking player every time to put my team over the hump. Usually it ends up being one of my sleepers that for some reason I don't draft in this league. I can draft all of my other sleepers that don't pan out but the ones that do seem to allude me in the big money.

[LionelHutz 0]

Read this thread thoroughly before deciding to trade. This is like a religious argument.

 

My read is that Spiller will be great for the next 4 weeks, then F-Jax will come back and they'll split carries more or less 50-50 for the rest of the season.

 

I accepted a trade of Spiller for Antonio Brown and Brandon Lloyd.

 

My RB line up went from Foster/Murray/Charles/Spiller/Tate/Rodgers to Foster/Murray/Charles/Tate/Rodgers

 

My WR line up went from Harvin/J Nelson/S Johnson/B LaFell/A Jeffrey to Harvin/J Nelson/B Lloyd/S Johnson/A Brown/B LaFell

 

I could still use an upgrade at QB (I have E Manning/Fitzpatrick) or TE (Pettigrew) but no one was biting. Might try to flip Antonio Brown into an upgrade, I'll see how Pettigrew goes for the next few weeks though.

 

Opinions?

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Read this thread thoroughly before deciding to trade. This is like a religious argument.

 

My read is that Spiller will be great for the next 4 weeks, then F-Jax will come back and they'll split carries more or less 50-50 for the rest of the season.

 

I accepted a trade of Spiller for Antonio Brown and Brandon Lloyd.

 

My RB line up went from Foster/Murray/Charles/Spiller/Tate/Rodgers to Foster/Murray/Charles/Tate/Rodgers

 

My WR line up went from Harvin/J Nelson/S Johnson/B LaFell/A Jeffrey to Harvin/J Nelson/B Lloyd/S Johnson/A Brown/B LaFell

 

I could still use an upgrade at QB (I have E Manning/Fitzpatrick) or TE (Pettigrew) but no one was biting. Might try to flip Antonio Brown into an upgrade, I'll see how Pettigrew goes for the next few weeks though.

 

Opinions?

I woulf have went with an upgrade at qb or te. I would have also wanted 1 stud at wr instead of 2 guys who are decent. Not a good trade but it will prob work in your favor anyway with a small upgrade at wr.

[vegassandwich227 0]

Read this thread thoroughly before deciding to trade. This is like a religious argument.

 

My read is that Spiller will be great for the next 4 weeks, then F-Jax will come back and they'll split carries more or less 50-50 for the rest of the season.

 

I accepted a trade of Spiller for Antonio Brown and Brandon Lloyd.

 

My RB line up went from Foster/Murray/Charles/Spiller/Tate/Rodgers to Foster/Murray/Charles/Tate/Rodgers

 

My WR line up went from Harvin/J Nelson/S Johnson/B LaFell/A Jeffrey to Harvin/J Nelson/B Lloyd/S Johnson/A Brown/B LaFell

 

I could still use an upgrade at QB (I have E Manning/Fitzpatrick) or TE (Pettigrew) but no one was biting. Might try to flip Antonio Brown into an upgrade, I'll see how Pettigrew goes for the next few weeks though.

 

Opinions?

i think getting brown and lloyd is good value for a guy who may only start for 3-4 weeks, especially since he's possibly your 4th best rb...that said, you got two quality starters, but you already had 3, so not sure how it improves your team...i'd try to upgrade qb or te if possible...

 

this a 10team league? not sure how you got foster/murray/charles/nelson/harvin/eli/stevie j if it's not...

 

LOVE the disparity between leagues...getting brown AND lloyd...best offer i got for spiller was pettigrew OR fred davis straight up, and that was from the fred jax owner who NEEDS a rb (starting roy helu opposite cj2ypc this week).

[aaaa 0]

LOVE the disparity between leagues...getting brown AND lloyd...best offer i got for spiller was pettigrew OR fred davis straight up, and that was from the fred jax owner who NEEDS a rb (starting roy helu opposite cj2ypc this week).

 

Wow, I gotta believe that owner is just tryna lowball you and would be open to a more reasonable trade if he's starting Helu. I'm really interested in the deals people are making for Spiller after giving him away myself.

[SaintsInDome2006 128]

i think getting brown and lloyd is good value for a guy who may only start for 3-4 weeks, especially since he's possibly your 4th best rb...that said, you got two quality starters, but you already had 3, so not sure how it improves your team...i'd try to upgrade qb or te if possible...

 

this a 10team league? not sure how you got foster/murray/charles/nelson/harvin/eli/stevie j if it's not...

 

LOVE the disparity between leagues...getting brown AND lloyd...best offer i got for spiller was pettigrew OR fred davis straight up, and that was from the fred jax owner who NEEDS a rb (starting roy helu opposite cj2ypc this week).

 

Human mentality - an owner should try to win every single week, but some would rather sit and suffer loss after loss rather than *feel* (ie think) they're being taken advantage of. - The other way to play this game is just select and play and watch your favorite players every single week, but even then is someone really going to enjoy Helu's 2-5 touches every week for the next 4-6 weeks while Morris is the starter and Spiller is killing it? Basically that guy will be out of the playoffs by the time all is said and done. So be it.

[vegassandwich227 0]

Wow, I gotta believe that owner is just tryna lowball you and would be open to a more reasonable trade if he's starting Helu. I'm really interested in the deals people are making for Spiller after giving him away myself.

no. he's just a stupid douche....luckily for him, his opponent this week started cutler, j nelson, james jones, and finley last night.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Human mentality - an owner should try to win every single week, but some would rather sit and suffer loss after loss rather than *feel* (ie think) they're being taken advantage of. - The other way to play this game is just select and play and watch your favorite players every single week, but even then is someone really going to enjoy Helu's 2-5 touches every week for the next 4-6 weeks while Morris is the starter and Spiller is killing it? Basically that guy will be out of the playoffs by the time all is said and done. So be it.

I have made a few trades i knew i wasnt winning before. My team was bad and knew i needed to trade my best player if i wanted a shot at winning. It hasnt worked out really but i would have lost anyway. At least i got a little hope with the trade. I think i gave up palmer his best year for duece mccalister. I think the first game he played on my team he hurt his knee and was ineffective the rest of the year.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

no. he's just a stupid douche....luckily for him, his opponent this week started cutler, j nelson, james jones, and finley last night.

Ahh multiple douche bags in your league. Sounds like a good one.

[vegassandwich227 0]

Ahh multiple douche bags in your league. Sounds like a good one.

since i continuously find myself surrounded by douchebags, what does that say about me?

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

since i continuously find myself surrounded by douchebags, what does that say about me?

That you are a vegas sandwich, I asked you once what it meant, don't remember if you responded. But a Vegas sandwich is better than a c0ck meat sandwich, that is for sure.

[LionelHutz 0]

I woulf have went with an upgrade at qb or te. I would have also wanted 1 stud at wr instead of 2 guys who are decent. Not a good trade but it will prob work in your favor anyway with a small upgrade at wr.

 

I hear you. Tried offering the owners of Brady, Rodgers, Brees and even Ryan, Spiller in return for a QB upgrade (I wanted a lesser player too in Ryan's case) but no dice. I would've preferred a stud WR but offered for a couple and nothing. I am in a league where most of the owners either aren't active enough to trade or are too scared to trade in case they make a mistake.

[LionelHutz 0]

this a 10team league? not sure how you got foster/murray/charles/nelson/harvin/eli/stevie j if it's not...

 

Would you believe it is a 12 team league with 18 man rosters? But there was a huge run on QBs early and for some reason everyone started picking WRs in the second round. AJ Green went in the second for Christ's sake. Stuck with my RB-first philosophy and was happy to get Eli at QB in the sixth round. We also have one joker who took 49ers players at every opportunity, including their DST in the first. Luckily for him it was an Internet draft - if we were all in the same room we would have put him in a taxi and sent him home.