Who to take at pick 4?

[gpann101 32]

Look, that was maybe a glib and cocky answer with no facts behind it.

 

I'll apologize for the comment. but I wont delete it.

 

I dont deny Mixon has top notch talent, but there are questions with him.

 

you dont draft a guy like him at #4 overall. Even if he has the talent of Zeke, he does not have the line to match..

 

He also has fumbling issues. which may or may not limit him early in his career.

 

dont get me wrong, I love the talent, just not at #4 overall. Not in a redraft anyways.

 

I could see it in a rookie draft.

 

my other thought is this:

 

you think he's #4 overall. the rest of the world thinks he's a 3rd round pick (some think hes a 4th). do you take him at #4 overall?

 

you shouldnt.

 

you either take him in the second round (to make sure you get him) or you trade down and get him a few picks later. But you dont take him at 4.

 

My thoughts on the matter.

 

Keeper/dynasty leagues ARE slightly different in the way these strategies work, and if rebuilding a team from the bottom up, maybe you do take a guy like this at 4. but that is situational and not typical.

All in good fun Ray. I'm high on Mixon especially in keeper/dynasty formats. His variables measure far better than that of Fournette. And if he( Fournette) is already touted as the next ADP?... then I'm all in. Brain says OBJ at #4 pick in non keeper formats but MAN..I know players have issues and Mixon's was what..at age 18? If matured,on a potent team..if I have the chance to land a Laveon Bell type back...I'm all in!!!

[Ray_T 588]

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Posted Yesterday, 05:07 PM

On our latest podcast we ranked our top rookie QB's and RB's in fantasy football for 2017. The lists below are those who will be drafted/potential waiver-wire additions as the year goes on, but I was just curious to see how everyone else was ranking these positions.

 

Our podcast is found in the signature in case you want to hear the reasons behind the rankings as well. I look forward to seeing everyone's early rankings!

 

QB: 1. D. Watson (Hou) 2. M. Trubisky (Chi) 3. D. Kizer (Cle) 4. P. Mahomes (KC)

 

RB: 1. L. Fournette (Jac) 2. C. McCaffrey (Car) 3. J. Williams (GB) 4. D. Cook (Minn) 5. J. Mixon (Cin) 6. S. Perine (Wash) 7. M. Mack (Ind) 8. D. Foreman (Hou) 9. K. Hunt (KC)

 

This is reposted from the thread showing the list from the early rookie Rankings

 

when you see stuff like this, its tough to grab mixon at #4 overall even if you are fully onboard that he will be a top 5 RB.

 

My philosophy is: a player is only a bargain if you get him for less than his true value.

 

so lets for a minute go on the assumption that I feel Mixon will be a top 5 RB in the NFL this year. (we know I dont feel that way, but lets pretend that I do)

 

I see things like this posted by various magazines, and fantasy websites. Mixon is the 5th ranked rookie RB.

 

I dont draft him at #4 overall. I wait until at least round 2 (or until a couple on this rookie list for RB's are gone) and take him at that point (yes, probably round 2 or early in round 3)

 

I know you sometimes dont get your man when that happens, but you also dont over draft him.

 

why take a guy in round 1 when you can get him in round 2 or 3?

 

the only scenario where this can make sense is in your dynasty/keeper leagues, but in those leagues, each team has a whole bunch of keepers, so a first round pick in that sort of draft is the equivalent of a 3rd or 4th round pick in a redraft (give or take depending on the year and the quality of the rookie class)

 

Keep in mind my assumption-that I believe he will be a top 5 RB in the NFL this year.

 

even using that assumtion, he's still a second rounder for me.

[gpann101 32]

Number 4 pick aside, I just don't see mixon sliding in the draft like M. Gordon did last year. I want to know WHO will be the #4 by the END of this year, not the consensus of last year

[Ray_T 588]

well, I do into a draft with two lists.

 

1. where i rank them

and

 

2 where it seems the rest of the world ranks them.

 

then I do a reconciliation to try to maximize my value.

 

so, for example, if I felt mixon was the #4 ranked RB on the board, and the rest of the world thinks he's an RB2 (3rd to 4th round) or RB3 (later than 4th round) Then I look at getting him late in round 2 or early in round 3 (depending on where I am sitting in the draft)

 

or I try to trade up or down to get into the position I need to be in to get my man.

[gpann101 32]

A players potential can infact outplay a rank..this is why I've been successful in ff. Think outside the box and don't follow the herd.

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,575]

well, I do into a draft with two lists.

 

1. where i rank them

and

 

2 where it seems the rest of the world ranks them.

 

then I do a reconciliation to try to maximize my value.

 

so, for example, if I felt mixon was the #4 ranked RB on the board, and the rest of the world thinks he's an RB2 (3rd to 4th round) or RB3 (later than 4th round) Then I look at getting him late in round 2 or early in round 3 (depending on where I am sitting in the draft)

 

or I try to trade up or down to get into the position I need to be in to get my man.

 

yep if I knew/thought Mixon was going to finish no 4 overall I would just take him in the 2nd/3rd

[ralphster 274]

#4 overall in a rookie draft? Sure! Arguments can be made for taking him with the 1.01 in a rookie draft.

 

Forth pick in a dynasty start up? No focking way. There are a handful of proven studs with much higher floors.

 

Mixon is talented, but he's not worthy of 1.04 in a startup. I'd take him in the back half of the 3rd or 4th, which is where Fournette is currently going.

 

Go Mixon at 1.04 and miss AB, Julio, OBJ, M Gordon, McCoy, Mike Evans, AJ Green, Dez, Freeman, Murray, TY Hilton, M Thomas, Ajayi, Howard and more before your up again in the 2nd round.

[polecatt 401]

I have the 4 pick in a dynasty league and I'm hoping I can take Mixon.

He's a great pick in dynasty rookie drafts but that's a bit high for redraft.

[DocNiner 44]

I'm of the group who would try to overcome down a few spots as I'm still not sold on MelVin at 4. Certainly Brown could be the pick in ppr. Has anyone consideed Fournette there? I know the Jax oline isn't the caliber that Zeke had in Dallas his rookie year, but the dude is a beast and I think a lock for 1,000 yds. & 8-10 tds.

[weepaws 2,456]

Gordon will out score him.

 

He's their only Rb and they drafted two Oline man and Rivers and that offence are going to have a very successful ff season.

 

Mixon is a great pick at number four in a keeper league, but in a redraft league no.

 

Not with M Lewis still at the helm.

 

Right now I have A Brown ranked number 3 on my wr list and close to being number four.

 

Ben wants to take a seat in his rocking chair, and when Ben isn't playing it seems to hurt Browns ff stats.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I'm of the group who would try to overcome down a few spots as I'm still not sold on MelVin at 4. Certainly Brown could be the pick in ppr. Has anyone consideed Fournette there? I know the Jax oline isn't the caliber that Zeke had in Dallas his rookie year, but the dude is a beast and I think a lock for 1,000 yds. & 8-10 tds.

1000 and 8-10 tds is a little disappointing for the 4 pick imo. Not bad numbers, but I want someone who I hope can have a great season

[Ray_T 588]

Gordon will out score him.

 

He's their only Rb and they drafted two Oline man and Rivers and that offence are going to have a very successful ff season.

 

Mixon is a great pick at number four in a keeper league, but in a redraft league no.

 

Not with M Lewis still at the helm.

 

Right now I have A Brown ranked number 3 on my wr list and close to being number four.

 

Ben wants to take a seat in his rocking chair, and when Ben isn't playing it seems to hurt Browns ff stats.

Well, the O line draftees are not guaranteed to make a serious impact in year 1 but the future of this line looks very bright.

 

If I was a betting man, I'd say one of the two draftees will make an immediate impact, and one of them may take a year.

 

Still, I agree its fair to bet on better numbers next year from Gordon. I just dont think I'd take him at #4.

 

for me, he's a mid to late first rounder or one of the first couple picks in round 2. That's not a terrible thing.

[weepaws 2,456]

I have M Gordon ranked fourth after the obvious top three Rbs.

 

There are why to many teams going with a RBBC and I don't see the Chargers being one of them.

 

I think he will surly be a true three down back, so after the top three Rbs are picked and I'm picking forth I will take my chances with the best Rb still on the board and load up with the WRs later.

 

PPR or non PPR

[jaxjag 43]

Sure Ray..3 time consecutive champ in a 14 team keeper league making bold picks and kicking ass!

 

Nevertheless, I would let my little sister or grandmother win once in a while, just to keep it interesting.