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Doug Orth's Big Boards - Version 2.0

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Instead of piling on the original thread for Version 1, I figured we'd hit the reset button for Version 2.

 

Version 2.0: PPR Top 200 - 8/22/17; Updated: 8/26, 8/31

Version 2.0 Half-Point PPR Top 200 - 8/25/17; Updated: 9/1

Version 2.0 Non-PPR Top 200 - 8/26/17; Updated: 9/1

Version 2.0 TFC Top 200 - 8/29/17; Updated: 9/1

Version 2.0 FFPC Top 200 - 8/31/17

Kickers & Defense / ST - 9/2/17

 

After doing a few drafts the last few days, I'm also starting to warm up to taking Rodgers/Brady a little earlier than normal as late Round 2 and Round 3 are becoming dead zones.

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Great write ups at the bottom. I don't actually have any traditional redrafts lined up this year, but I'm hearing what you're putting down on the Jags. If I didn't already have Allen Robinson on dynasty teams or at a big keeper discount, I wouldn't be inclined to go after him at his current price. He's still an asset with huge upside, but I'll be drafting the rest of my team as if he were my boom/bust WR3.

 

Fortunately, I'm with you that guys like Diggs, Maclin, Snead, Meredith, and Parker offer similar floors at much lower costs than their 3rd round counterparts.

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Doug can you please comment as to why you have Powell (30) so low?

 

The Jets should be trailing just about every game this year so game script works in Powell's favor never-mind he's their best offensive weapon while Forte can't stay off the injury report.

 

If he's stays healthy I think he can rival Bell and DJ in receptions this year.

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Doug can you please comment as to why you have Powell (30) so low?

 

The Jets should be trailing just about every game this year so game script works in Powell's favor never-mind he's their best offensive weapon while Forte can't stay off the injury report.

 

If he's stays healthy I think he can rival Bell and DJ in receptions this year.

 

Agree and disagree.

 

I see the Jets using a three-man backfield, with Powell leading the way, Forte limping his way to about 150 or so touches and Elijah McGuire picking up some (including maybe goal line). While I agree with the notion NYJ will be trailing a lot, can we just assume McCown (who can't stay healthy) and Hackenberg can get him the ball on the simplest of passes? I'm not sure we can. And if Forte is turned into the third-down back in order to preserve Powell, then what? And the offensive line is going to struggle.

 

I really try to not assume "garbage time" when ranking players. Powell's TD upside is extremely limited, and I'd argue his rushing yardage upside is too. At that point, you have what Duke Johnson was the last two years IMO.

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Wanted to be clear about my rank of McCaffrey. I did so assuming Stewart will either get hurt or Carolina will simply opt to give the rookie more of the workload later in the season.

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Any reason to drop OBJ's position with the threat he may miss a game or two.

 

Wondering this too. Have the dreaded #4 pick this year (just like last year damnit) and have been taking OBJ in mocks. Both him and Julio scare me now with their respective injuries. Last year I took Hopkins. Don't want to be burned again with my first pick.

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Any reason to drop OBJ's position with the threat he may miss a game or two.

 

 

Wondering this too. Have the dreaded #4 pick this year (just like last year damnit) and have been taking OBJ in mocks. Both him and Julio scare me now with their respective injuries. Last year I took Hopkins. Don't want to be burned again with my first pick.

 

I am picking No. 4 in one of my $1500 leagues (yeah, never thought I would go that high, much less do multiple such drafts) and I will go Julio if we get some conformation before my draft OBJ will miss the first two weeks and/or is dealing with a high ankle sprain, which I think he is given the timeline. If Julio scares you too (don't blame you if he does), I'd go Freeman. Being able to pencil in roughly 1,500 total yards, 50 receptions and 10 touchdowns is not bad from your first pick.

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So you think Dalvin is not a crazy pick mid 2nd? I don't think he will come back around and I want a young, explosive pass catching RB.

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So I have the 5th pick whic would mean Julio will prob go just before me. Now what? Go with Evans, McCoy, or AJ green?

 

I don't think OBJ should fall past No. 5 if he's only go to miss two weeks. If you want to avoid OBJ for the potential absence or just don't want to deal with the possibility of him playing with a potential high-ankle sprain all year or aggravating it after he returns, I'd recommend Freeman.

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I don't think OBJ should fall past No. 5 if he's only go to miss two weeks. If you want to avoid OBJ for the potential absence or just don't want to deal with the possibility of him playing with a potential high-ankle sprain all year or aggravating it after he returns, I'd recommend Freeman.

Ok thanks it's what I needed to hear that obj in a 1 pt ppr is still in play at pick 5 overall.

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So you think Dalvin is not a crazy pick mid 2nd? I don't think he will come back around and I want a young, explosive pass catching RB.

 

I told an e-mailer earlier today that I am not comfortable with anyone in the second round after Baldwin at No. 19. Having said that, I know 24 players have to be drafted through two rounds. I think Cook is going to see enough work in the passing game to live up to a late second-round pick, but I feel just about every RB/WR in that 20-30 area has at least one significant question mark. I think Cook will be inconsistent to a degree, but he will create enough big plays to finish inside the top 15 at his position. Cook is definitely a "young, explosive pass-catching RB" though.

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Thanks for putting this together again! I absolutely LOVE the big board and consider it my bible on draft day.

 

#7 spot in a 10-team redraft. I got burned last year by poor RB depth and am thinking about going old school with back to back RB picks in rounds 1 and 2. With the question mark players in that "dead zone" you are talking about, would it be better to go with a stud QB in round 3 or would I be better off grabbing my #1 WR at that point.

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Thanks for putting this together again! I absolutely LOVE the big board and consider it my bible on draft day.

 

#7 spot in a 10-team redraft. I got burned last year by poor RB depth and am thinking about going old school with back to back RB picks in rounds 1 and 2. With the question mark players in that "dead zone" you are talking about, would it be better to go with a stud QB in round 3 or would I be better off grabbing my #1 WR at that point.

 

Thanks.

 

I would prefer going RB-WR-Brady/Rodgers, all things being equal, but I wouldn't go with Baldwin or Cooks or Dez early in the second just to make it happen.

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Doug do you see Carolina using Mccaffrey and likewise KC still using Hill on special teams? Yes I'm in a return league 1/25 tds, thnx

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Doug do you see Carolina using Mccaffrey and likewise KC still using Hill on special teams? Yes I'm in a return league 1/25 tds, thnx

 

I could see Carolina using McCaffrey on teams occasionally in the beginning, but I just think it is going to become apparent he needs to be the leader of that committee before long. As far as I know, Hill is already off teams. I can see KC putting him back to return if the Chiefs absolutely must have a return score, but nothing I'd want to bet on in a given weekly matchup.

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Good Day Doug,

 

Thanks again for all the amazing work you put in doing this. I too use this list as a hidden gem so to speak. I have a few questions. Most rankings we see Gronk and Kelce 1 and 2 and for obvious reasons. But in your rankings you have Graham ahead of Kelce at #2 even though Kelce now has no Maclin to compete for redzone targets. Can you touch on this reasoning? Also Brandin Cooks is a tough one to rank for many sites. I seen him as far down as a WR28. Even here on Mikes rankings he has Cooks as a WR16 as of todays new rankings but once had him around WR20 a month back. But you have him listed as a WR8 I believe right behind AJ Green now. Again can you touch on this huge difference in Cooks rankings/projections?

 

Thank you

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Good Day Doug,

 

Thanks again for all the amazing work you put in doing this. I too use this list as a hidden gem so to speak. I have a few questions. Most rankings we see Gronk and Kelce 1 and 2 and for obvious reasons. But in your rankings you have Graham ahead of Kelce at #2 even though Kelce now has no Maclin to compete for redzone targets. Can you touch on this reasoning? Also Brandin Cooks is a tough one to rank for many sites. I seen him as far down as a WR28. Even here on Mikes rankings he has Cooks as a WR16 as of todays new rankings but once had him around WR20 a month back. But you have him listed as a WR8 I believe right behind AJ Green now. Again can you touch on this huge difference in Cooks rankings/projections?

 

Thank you

 

Thanks. The important thing to remember with my "rankings" is to work within the tiers. An 8.8-point difference in my SSI score is not a huge gap.

 

It's debatable if Kelce had to fight with Maclin for RZ targets last year as Maclin was probably limited at best for at least half of the season. My problem with Kelce in fantasy is KC's use of him inside the 10 and 20. His numbers in those areas have been remarkably similar over the last three years, and he's never scored more than five times in a season. Only four of 14 career TDs have come inside 10 yards, which means he is less of an option when his size and athleticism should be making him more of an option. Andy Reid has a long track record of making sure everyone gets fed in the passing game, so I'm probably buying more into that than what should be Kelce's "upside."

 

As for Graham, I'm going to be very simplistic. If he can do what he did last year with minimal practice and coming off a serious injury, I can't wait for this year.

 

Regarding Cooks, it boils down to the fact I think he is the deep threat (he's more than that, but you get my point) NE hasn't had since Moss. Opponents cannot possibly account for him and Gronk down the field. On top of that, Cooks is remarkably quick and can run shorter routes and work out of the slot, which makes a candidate to steal some of Edelman's work inside. More than anything, however, is that most of the Pats' offseason additions on offense scream to me they want to throw more this season. I think Cooks is a prime candidate to score roughly 12 touchdowns, which is why he ends up scoring so well in SSi.

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Thanks. The important thing to remember with my "rankings" is to work within the tiers. An 8.8-point difference in my SSI score is not a huge gap.

 

It's debatable if Kelce had to fight with Maclin for RZ targets last year as Maclin was probably limited at best for at least half of the season. My problem with Kelce in fantasy is KC's use of him inside the 10 and 20. His numbers in those areas have been remarkably similar over the last three years, and he's never scored more than five times in a season. Only four of 14 career TDs have come inside 10 yards, which means he is less of an option when his size and athleticism should be making him more of an option. Andy Reid has a long track record of making sure everyone gets fed in the passing game, so I'm probably buying more into that than what should be Kelce's "upside."

 

As for Graham, I'm going to be very simplistic. If he can do what he did last year with minimal practice and coming off a serious injury, I can't wait for this year.

 

Regarding Cooks, it boils down to the fact I think he is the deep threat (he's more than that, but you get my point) NE hasn't had since Moss. Opponents cannot possibly account for him and Gronk down the field. On top of that, Cooks is remarkably quick and can run shorter routes and work out of the slot, which makes a candidate to steal some of Edelman's work inside. More than anything, however, is that most of the Pats' offseason additions on offense scream to me they want to throw more this season. I think Cooks is a prime candidate to score roughly 12 touchdowns, which is why he ends up scoring so well in SSi.

Love hearing this opinion about Cooks since I traded for him.

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So now where does cooks go with Edelman looking to be out of the picture?

BOOM Head Shot.

 

I say 90-1200-12

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A pretty significant bump for Hunt, and I can't disagree. Hogan also comes onto the board strong, understandably.

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Updated the PPR board for Edelman, Ware news.

Ok and now that ware is out for the season how far up doe hunt go? He's gotta leapfrog mixon I would imagine and if one really wants to be aggressive he could come in right after Howard and before cook or is that too high.

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Ok and now that ware is out for the season how far up doe hunt go? He's gotta leapfrog mixon I would imagine and if one really wants to be aggressive he could come in right after Howard and before cook or is that too high.

 

I'd say that is pretty accurate. I'll find out for sure when I "do the math" later tonight.

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Doug great work as always, and I generally stick to your rankings like fantasy gold, but I have a real problem that Demarco is a 1st rounder, especially ahead of Mike Evans in PPR?

 

do explain if you could

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Doug great work as always, and I generally stick to your rankings like fantasy gold, but I have a real problem that Demarco is a 1st rounder, especially ahead of Mike Evans in PPR?

 

do explain if you could

 

Here's a clip from my Opportunity Knocks - NFC column from a few weeks ago:

 

"After setting a 206-target pace over the first half of last season, Evans dropped to a 140-target pace over the second half of the season when Koetter decided to lean a little bit more heavily on the running game."

 

Here is my biggest problem with Evans going high: He is an inefficient receiver and Winston is an inefficient quarterback. The Bucs started winning more often last year almost the very moment they started running the ball more often, so I think his volume was going to drop anyway. Add in more weapons and I think we are talking about a guy (like A.J. Green in 2014 and 2015 if memory serves) who has WR1 numbers at the end of the year but did it inconsistently.

 

If I have heard something more this summer than Mularkey saying "DeMarco is our workhorse," I'm not sure what it might be. I'm not thrilled about his age or Henry is definitely a threat, but I buy more into Mularkey's history of sticking with one back more.

 

The other thing to keep in mind is this: there isn't a ton of separation in that second tier. I see every player in that group pretty much the same - could be a Tier 1 player or fall into Tier 3. Eight points in my SSI score is not a huge difference. The idea of the color-coding tiers is to help the reader define them more easily. I don't always stay within the tiers per se when I'm drafting because I might be looking for a high-floor guy at one spot and a high-ceiling guy at the next spot.

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thanks, Doug, it makes sense, I know you think differently than just about anyone out there with rankings, thats what makes em great, you are the first person I have seen who doesn't have Evans at least top 6, I have even seen him no 3

 

agree with that 2nd half thing about Evans, I had him last year and he really wasnt that huge down the stretch

 

I am just really skeptical of Murray and have him pretty much DND

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Thank you once again Mr. "The Fantasy Football Guru!" This has been my favorite draft tool over the past few years and I very much appreciate all the different scoring systems you consider. :cheers:

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I asked in the other thread but what is the thinking having the Cardinals as the top defense this year? I only ask because I don't see a lot of other sites that have them even in the top three or four.

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Simply put, a combination of Honey Badger (made a slight difference), what I believe is an improvement opposite Patrick Peterson this year, one of the softest schedules (big) and one of the most aggressive defenses (big) in the league. They have also been consistently near the top in recent years as well.

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