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**NCAA Basketball Bubble Talk- 3/11**

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It's now MARCH, so that means we're winding down this year's editions of NCAA Bubble Talk. This is just a good way for those of us who love college basketball to discuss the drama between now and Selection Sunday, which takes place in exactly 3 days. Here are my projections as of today...obviously, some things will change between now and 3 days from now, but the analysis is an ongoing thing. Also, remember that there are 68 teams again this year instead of 65. Here we go...

 

Conferences that only have a shot at one bid (18): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summitt, Sun Belt, WAC.

 

ACC (5): North Carolina, Duke, Florida State, Virginia, North Carolina State

 

Done deal.

 

Atlantic Ten (3): Temple, St. Louis, Xavier/St. Bonaventure winner

 

Done deal.

 

Big East (9): Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Louisville, South Florida, Cincinnati, Connecticut, West Virginia

 

WVU survives the bubble.

 

Big 12 (6): Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas

 

Done deal.

 

Big Ten (6): Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Purdue

 

Done deal.

 

Colonial (2): Virginia Commenwealth, Drexel

 

Done deal.

 

Conference USA (2): Memphis, Southern Miss

 

Done deal.

 

Metro Atlantic (2): Loyola-Maryland, Iona

 

Done deal.

 

Missouri Valley (2): Wichita State, Creighton

 

Done deal.

 

Mountain West (4): New Mexico, UNLV, San Diego State, Colorado State

 

Like WVU, CSU sneaks in at the end.

 

Pac-12 (2): California, Colorado

 

Done deal.

 

SEC (4): Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Alabama

 

Done deal.

 

West Coast (3): St. Mary's, Gonzaga, Brigham Young

 

Done deal.

 

 

Top Sixteen Seeds:

 

#1- Kentucky, Syracuse, North Carolina, Michigan State/Ohio State winner

#2- Missouri, Kansas, Michigan State/Ohio State loser, Duke

#3- Marquette, Georgetown, Michigan, Baylor

#4- Indiana, Wichita State, Wisconsin, Memphis

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Will try to provide daily updates this week and edit the main post daily as well...

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Go VOLS! I really wanna see this team in the tourney. I love the way they play the game. Gonna take at least a finals berth in the SEC Tourney though.

 

Fortunately as the #2 seed (how the fock are we the two seed, but vandy and Florida get berths?) we shouldn't have to face KY until the finals if at all. We can handle anyone else in the conference.

 

I actuallly hope we get KY in the finals. We played them damn close early in the season at home, in Stokes' third game. I think we might could take them.

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The expansion to 68 teams kind of took away my desire to do bracketology this year (after all, last year's final 4-6 teams were a complete joke and the selections devoid of any logic whatsoever) but I am still following just as closely. So with that, here are the most likely remaining 'bid thieves'.

 

Atlantic 10 - St Joseph's, Dayton, St. Bonaventure

Likelihood of an upset winner: Medium

 

Temple is in, Saint Louis basically just needs to avoid a bad loss (Wednesday's game vs the Richmond/LaSalle winner), and Xavier is on the precipice. The worst-case scenario for bubble teams would involve Xavier making a run to the title game and losing to anyone not named Temple. This could potentially bump the A-10 to four bids.

 

Big West - Cal St. Fullerton

Likelihood of an upset winner: Medium

 

Long Beach St. is poised to be this year's mid-major bubble darling. The 49ers were looking real strong for a possible at-large bid as they cruised to a perfect conference record, but that was derailed by CS-Fullerton in the regular season finale. Now the 49ers are under more pressure than before to take home the Big West tournament title. LBSU has been bounced in the finals each of the last two seasons, so striking out a third time would hardly qualify as a shocker. Should the 49ers be upset yet again, they will become a very interesting test case, as they outscheduled the rest of the nation by far this year (road games vs Kansas, UNC, Pitt, San Diego St, Louisville, with neutral games vs Kansas St and Xavier) but failed to pick up any marquee wins in the process.

 

Conference USA - Marshall, UCF, Tulsa, UAB (take your pick)

Likelihood of an upset winner: High

 

Memphis is in with their regular season crown, and Southern Miss seems to be on the good side of the bubble (as long as they don't pick up a bad loss from the Rice/East Carolina winner), so the threat of a three bid C-USA is real. Central Florida and UTEP have both knocked off Memphis this year, and Marshall, UTEP, Houston, and UAB have all beaten the Golden Eagles, so this promises to be one of the most unpredictable tournaments of the week.

Mountain West - TCU, Wyoming

Likelihood of an upset winner: Medium

 

UNLV, New Mexico, and San Diego St are all firmly in the field, with Colorado St in position to punch it's own ticket. If there is going to be a scenario that leads to an unexpected fifth bid for the conference, it would almost certainly have to involve Colorado St picking up at least one win, while Wyoming runs the table for the title. Both TCU and Wyoming are fully capable of stealing the auto bid, but a TCU title run would most likely come at the expense of the Rams' dance card.

 

Pac 12 - Arizona, Oregon, Colorado, Stanford

Likelihood of an upset winner: High

 

The Pac 12 is a mess yet again, but the committee was somehow bullish on the conference last year, so don't be surprised if you see three teams getting their name called on Sunday evening. At the moment Cal and Washington seem fairly safe despite entirely unconvincing resumes. This means that a potential third bid could be stolen should any of a number of potential upstarts win the crown. Oregon is the most likely team to pull it out, but it is hard to see any one team being a serious favorite in this mess.

 

SEC - Tennessee, Mississippi St, Mississippi

Likelihood of an upset winner: Low

 

The SEC's chances of stealing a bid are actually based more on a team coming up with a surprising at-large bid than taking away the auto bid, as it is hard to imagine anyone taking down Kentucky in this tournament. Mississippi St is currently trying to resurrect their at-large chances after a complete meltdown down the stretch, and a second round win over Vanderbilt should be enough to save them. Tennessee, meanwhile, has come from out of nowhere to sneak their way into the bubble conversation, and while they are still a long shot, the Vols might just be able to convince the committee should they reach the SEC finals and put up a decent fight against Kentucky. A five or six bid SEC would decimate the existing bubble.

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when I was watching the KU/ Texas game earlier this week, I was shocked they showed it 4 to 5 times but you could clearly see that Wangmene likely broke his arm or wrist. It was nasty.

 

Then I was a little surprised when the announcer indicated the selection committee absiolutely takes into consideration late season injuries, and this injury could ultimately hurt Texas' chances of getting in. I'm curious if there is truth to this, and if Wangmene being out would lessen the Horns chances of getting to the dance.

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"The question now becomes Texas, who absolutely must win their first Big 12 tourney game to get in. We'll give them that victory for now, but a loss probably dooms them to the NIT. All or nothing game for the Longhorns"

 

 

No. Its homerism but ISU is playing fantastic right now.....and Texas just lost one starter with a wrist injury and Chapman looked gimpy vs Kansas. And only a horrific shooting performance kept ISU from sweeping Texas this year.

 

Isu is peaking.....i wouldnt bet on Texas here.

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"The question now becomes Texas, who absolutely must win their first Big 12 tourney game to get in. We'll give them that victory for now, but a loss probably dooms them to the NIT. All or nothing game for the Longhorns"

 

 

No. Its homerism but ISU is playing fantastic right now.....and Texas just lost one starter with a wrist injury and Chapman looked gimpy vs Kansas. And only a horrific shooting performance kept ISU from sweeping Texas this year.

 

Isu is peaking.....i wouldnt bet on Texas here.

 

 

<---This guy thinks ISU is better than Baylor. I expect the Cyclones to win. ISU is one of two teams in the country with three players that have 60 or more threes. They are going to be a tough out for anybody.

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<---This guy thinks ISU is better than Baylor. I expect the Cyclones to win. ISU is one of two teams in the country with three players that have 60 or more threes. They are going to be a tough out for anybody.

 

Agreed and Mizzou having already beat them in both conference games more than likely gets them in round 2 of the Big 12 Tourney.

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Agreed and Mizzou having already beat them in both conference games more than likely gets them in round 2 of the Big 12 Tourney.

 

 

Probably....Mizzou is awesome this year. I know we dont match up very well with them.....but not many do. We hung in there in both games, but we'd need a perfect game to beat Mizzou....but teams usually do to beat top 5 teams.

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VCU is back in the tournament, Drexel will be left to serve as one of this year's token "disappointed teams with CBS cameras on them".

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VCU is back in the tournament, Drexel will be left to serve as one of this year's token "disappointed teams with CBS cameras on them".

 

Why? You don't think Drexel will be an #8 seed or higher? They deserve at least that. I can't name 30 teams better than Drexel in the nation.

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Why? You don't think Drexel will be an #8 seed or higher? They deserve at least that. I can't name 30 teams better than Drexel in the nation.

Sadly, when you schedule no one and lose to multiple bad teams...

 

Best non-conference win: Cleveland State? Princeton?

3 losses to teams outside the top 100

15 of their 27 wins came against the ass end of Divison-1

 

I am a mid-major booster and would love to see more of them represented, but you can't just say "Hey, we won a lot of games against crappy teams, that should be enough!".

 

Meanwhile, a more deserving mid-major (who will sadly suffer the same fate), Oral Roberts has crapped out. That makes three potentially dangerous low-mid-major teams who couldn't even reach their title games (Iona, Middle Tennessee St).

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Sadly, when you schedule no one and lose to multiple bad teams...

 

Best non-conference win: Cleveland State? Princeton?

3 losses to teams outside the top 100

15 of their 27 wins came against the ass end of Divison-1

 

I am a mid-major booster and would love to see more of them represented, but you can't just say "Hey, we won a lot of games against crappy teams, that should be enough!".

 

Meanwhile, a more deserving mid-major (who will sadly suffer the same fate), Oral Roberts has crapped out. That makes three potentially dangerous low-mid-major teams who couldn't even reach their title games (Iona, Middle Tennessee St).

 

 

Yeah no offense but zero is right on Drexel. Why these mid majors dont schedule tough competition is beyond me......then they are the same teams wondering why they got left out.

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Yeah no offense but zero is right on Drexel. Why these mid majors dont schedule tough competition is beyond me......then they are the same teams wondering why they got left out.

Isn't even limited to mid-majors. Ask Virginia Tech about stupid scheduling (or last year Alabama).

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Isn't even limited to mid-majors. Ask Virginia Tech about stupid scheduling (or last year Alabama).

 

 

True but its tougher for power 6 schools to get too cute scheduling because its harder to guage the strength of your conference. Whereas a Drexel knows they play in a crap conference so should know you have to schedule tough non conf games. Just MO.

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Sadly, when you schedule no one and lose to multiple bad teams...

 

Best non-conference win: Cleveland State? Princeton?

3 losses to teams outside the top 100

15 of their 27 wins came against the ass end of Divison-1

 

I am a mid-major booster and would love to see more of them represented, but you can't just say "Hey, we won a lot of games against crappy teams, that should be enough!".

 

Meanwhile, a more deserving mid-major (who will sadly suffer the same fate), Oral Roberts has crapped out. That makes three potentially dangerous low-mid-major teams who couldn't even reach their title games (Iona, Middle Tennessee St).

 

I'm a bracket scientist like you guys, but I thought it was a foregone conclusion that Drexel was in. Considering the success of the Colonial League for many years now in the March Madness, how can a rational person advocate for 8 to 9 team for the Big East rather than two or three teams from the Colonial. I'd rank both VCU and Drexel both better than any team in the Pac 10 and better than anyone other than Memphis in Conf USA. If Drexel and Iona get left out (I can rationalize Midd Tenn St being left out, but not happy with it), then the system is broken, much like college football. Didn't VCU have to play into the tourney on Tuesday (Wednesday?) last year just to get past the round of 68 to 64, then went to the final 4? Coming off a year of VCU and Butler in the Final Four, how can people still be so pig headed when it comes to deserving mid majors. I'm scratching my head. But that's just me. I follow every, I mean EVERY conference and watch a lot of games and a lot of teams. Drexel is in, and should be a top 32 team at that. I can't imagine them not getting in. These pretenders in the "major" conferences will start to knock each other off this week, and you will probably see more mid major in that anticipated.

 

Now, I need to go sacrifice a few chickens to see if the Seahawks can land Matt Flynn, Mario Williams, or both.

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I'm a bracket scientist like you guys, but I thought it was a foregone conclusion that Drexel was in. Considering the success of the Colonial League for many years now in the March Madness, how can a rational person advocate for 8 to 9 team for the Big East rather than two or three teams from the Colonial. I'd rank both VCU and Drexel both better than any team in the Pac 10 and better than anyone other than Memphis in Conf USA. If Drexel and Iona get left out (I can rationalize Midd Tenn St being left out, but not happy with it), then the system is broken, much like college football. Didn't VCU have to play into the tourney on Tuesday (Wednesday?) last year just to get past the round of 68 to 64, then went to the final 4? Coming off a year of VCU and Butler in the Final Four, how can people still be so pig headed when it comes to deserving mid majors. I'm scratching my head. But that's just me. I follow every, I mean EVERY conference and watch a lot of games and a lot of teams. Drexel is in, and should be a top 32 team at that. I can't imagine them not getting in. These pretenders in the "major" conferences will start to knock each other off this week, and you will probably see more mid major in that anticipated.

 

Now, I need to go sacrifice a few chickens to see if the Seahawks can land Matt Flynn, Mario Williams, or both.

 

Both of those teams deserved bids going into that game last night. Agreed completely. If you can't watch Drexel and see that they belong in the top half of the field of 64 you don't know what you're looking at. But I know we'll all be enthralled watching the 9th place team in the Big East get in.

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Both of those teams deserved bids going into that game last night. Agreed completely. If you can't watch Drexel and see that they belong in the top half of the field of 64 you don't know what you're looking at. But I know we'll all be enthralled watching the 9th place team in the Big East get in.

 

 

Respectfully i have to disagree. Could i find 37 better at large teams? I think i could.

 

Drexel literally played nobody

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Respectfully i have to disagree. Could i find 37 better at large teams? I think i could.

 

Drexel literally played nobody

 

Strength of schedule is one consideration. How about how well a team is playing at the end of a season. Nobody was hotter. Where do you seed VCU, an #8 or #9? Surely they cannot be lower than that. Well, Drexel won the conference, and just lost by 3 points in the conference finals to VCU by 3 points in what was basically a home game for VCU. So, it would reasonable to argue that Drexel is at least the equal of VCU. Plus, going back to strength of schedule, Drexel beat everybody they were supposed to. That no longer prevents mid majors in college football from making the BCS bowl games. Just not as the top seed. As I was trying to fall asleep last night, flipping channels, all the pundits (dummies) were saying Drexel was in.

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Strength of schedule is one consideration. How about how well a team is playing at the end of a season. Nobody was hotter. Where do you seed VCU, an #8 or #9? Surely they cannot be lower than that. Well, Drexel won the conference, and just lost by 3 points in the conference finals to VCU by 3 points in what was basically a home game for VCU. So, it would reasonable to argue that Drexel is at least the equal of VCU. Plus, going back to strength of schedule, Drexel beat everybody they were supposed to. That no longer prevents mid majors in college football from making the BCS bowl games. Just not as the top seed. As I was trying to fall asleep last night, flipping channels, all the pundits (dummies) were saying Drexel was in.

 

 

I understand what you are saying....but thats giving a drexel or a VCU an 8 or 9 seed.....where comparitively a team like Iowa State who played a much tougher schedule, beat 2 top 10 teams, better conference, etc...is also projected there.

 

I see what you are saying....but something has to give there. I see both...if they both get in...in that 11-13 range.

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I understand what you are saying....but thats giving a drexel or a VCU an 8 or 9 seed.....where comparitively a team like Iowa State who played a much tougher schedule, beat 2 top 10 teams, better conference, etc...is also projected there.

 

I see what you are saying....but something has to give there. I see both...if they both get in...in that 11-13 range.

 

I wouldn't argue against Iowa St, I know they've been good down the stretch, and see no reason they and Drexel can't both be in. Glancing at Drexel's schedule, sure they lost to Virginia. But they were dominant in a conference that had 5 teams with 20+ wins, they beat Cleveland St (injuries made them collapse at the end) and Fairfield (just lost in their conference finals after beating very solid Iona team). I think it's a matter of how one looks at the Colonial as a whole, and granted there were some bad bottom feeder teams. But it was a conference with some really solid teams too (VCU, Drexel, Old Dominion, George Mason, Georgia St, Delaware)

 

Ah, why are we debating this endlessly? I'm convinced Drexel is in. We shall see Sunday.

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I wouldn't argue against Iowa St, I know they've been good down the stretch, and see no reason they and Drexel can't both be in. Glancing at Drexel's schedule, sure they lost to Virginia. But they were dominant in a conference that had 5 teams with 20+ wins, they beat Cleveland St (injuries made them collapse at the end) and Fairfield (just lost in their conference finals after beating very solid Iona team). I think it's a matter of how one looks at the Colonial as a whole, and granted there were some bad bottom feeder teams. But it was a conference with some really solid teams too (VCU, Drexel, Old Dominion, George Mason, Georgia St, Delaware)

 

Ah, why are we debating this endlessly? I'm convinced Drexel is in. We shall see Sunday.

 

 

Hat bet?

 

hah....just kidding.

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Hat bet?

 

hah....just kidding.

 

You know, I think I've worn a hat exactly once in my life. When I graduated college. The stupid flat hat with a tassel.

 

I just don't believe in them. And it looks like I won't be going bald, ever.

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Original post updated.

 

I think Drexel will get in...assuming the major conferences don't have a lot of teams rise up to claim bids. They definitely pass the "eye" test. As for scheduling, how about some of these major conference teams come play Drexel at Drexel...or MTSU at MTSU and so forth. The mid-major schools should get to play home games vs. the "big boys" every once in a while...not just road games.

 

Too bad for Oral Roberts. They probably miss out now despite the gaudy win total. South Dakota State is very good also, though, and would be a deserving auto-bid.

 

Davidson gets in, which is also good. They were the class of the Southern conference.

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Original post updated.

 

I think Drexel will get in...assuming the major conferences don't have a lot of teams rise up to claim bids. They definitely pass the "eye" test. As for scheduling, how about some of these major conference teams come play Drexel at Drexel...or MTSU at MTSU and so forth. The mid-major schools should get to play home games vs. the "big boys" every once in a while...not just road games.

 

Too bad for Oral Roberts. They probably miss out now despite the gaudy win total. South Dakota State is very good also, though, and would be a deserving auto-bid.

 

Davidson gets in, which is also good. They were the class of the Southern conference.

 

 

Just not much to gain by going to play a Drexel, ORU, MTSU, etc on the road out of conference.

 

Not that they are not good teams.....but power 6 conferences want those early easy wins.

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Just not much to gain by going to play a Drexel, ORU, MTSU, etc on the road out of conference.

 

Not that they are not good teams.....but power 6 conferences want those early easy wins.

 

So, the only real chance of these teams playing each other are those start of the season tournies in Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Alaska, MSG, etc.

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There's nothing to gain, you're right. It would just be nice if the NCAA committee understood that dynamic a little more.

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Also, Fumble and the rest, this thread tends to have good information in it. Nicely done.

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So, the only real chance of these teams playing each other are those start of the season tournies in Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Alaska, MSG, etc.

 

 

Yep....its play for slay early in the year.

 

 

 

Fumble: True true. The mids have a much tougher road......but then again.....they shouldnt get much sympathy if you dont go play those power 6 schools when you have a chance too.

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To be filed under "things I did not expect to see when I woke up this morning": Detroit, which played like total ass in the first half, bombing Valpo by 21 in the second half to steal the Horizon's lone bid. :shocking:

 

- South Dakota St escapes in OT to earn their first (and the state of South Dakota's first) NCAA bid. The Jack Rabbits are a solid team that is capable of winning a game in the tournament with the right matchup.

 

- No losses on the bubble today. This effectively means UConn is in, West Virginia is probably in now that they can't take a bad loss. Dayton, Seton Hall, and St Joseph's all live to fight another day, though all three need more wins to get in. Seton Hall is probably set with a win over Louisville today.

 

- Harvard wins the Ivy, sparing themselves from another likely disappointing Sunday. The Crimson's chances at an upset will be heavily determined by the matchup they are given.

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Drexel is 1-2 against top 50 teams, 0-1 against top 25 teams, has an sos of 200, didnt win there conference tourney. The colonial had 5 20 team winners, but they also had 6 teams with sub .500 win %. So half of that conference was bad to awful. Not exactly a tough run to get to 27 wins. They have 8.....I repeat 8 wins over teams with a winning record. The other 19 wins by Drexel are against teams with a losing record......this is a quality team? I'll take a team like W.V. or Northwestern, or any bubble power 6 then this joke.

 

Northwestern only had ten wins against teams with a winning record, had a 8-10 conference record, but also has a quality win over Michigan St. and has the 7 toughest schedule in the country (says kenpom.com). No way I would take Drexel over Northwestern. You cant have a creampuff schedule lose to the likes of Norfolk St. have no quality wins, have a sos of 200(kenpom.com) and expect to get in....imo.

 

Hell 11 of the 12 BIG 10 teams are in the top 21 in SOS (kenpom.com). So I guess I fall into the play tougher teams and you have a better chance of getting in. Its quality and sos, vs quantity and POS. :banana:

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Respectfully i have to disagree. Could i find 37 better at large teams? I think i could.

 

Drexel literally played nobody

 

 

I long ago abandoned the "losing to somebodies" is better than "beating the nobodies" line of thought.

 

It's not football. The difference between the talent levels at the top of most conferences is not that great, and depth isn't a major issue when dealing in a tournament format. We see year after year when these nobodies advance two rounds. Do they eventually lose to bigger name schools? More often than not ...the deck is stacked against them ... but more of them get deeper each year.

 

I just don't give a crap if a school with the reputation, conference affiliation and resources recruits All Americans who can't perform decently over the course of a season against similar opponents. Win. Over and over. Earn your spot. Losing with potential doesn't overshadow winning...regardless the competition...in my eyes. And I think that for many observers, the eyeball test is failed time and again. Tell people enough that they're looking at two prize horses and they'll believe you.

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I long ago abandoned the "losing to all the somebodies[/i]" is better than "beating all the nobodies" line of thought.

 

It's not football. The difference between the talent levels amongst conferences is not that great, and depth isn't a major issue when dealing in a tournament format. We see year after year when these nobodies advance two rounds. Do they eventually lose to bigger name schools? More often than not, but more of them get deeper each year.

 

I just don't give a crap if a school with the reputation, conference affiliation and resources recruits All Americans who can't perform decently over the course of a season against similar opponents. Win. Over and over. Earn your spot.

 

 

Right...but you have to see when im playing power 6 schools in non conf, and throughout the year......and you are playing MEAC, A-10 schools all year.....naturally im going to lose a few more games.

 

Just going by wins doesnt reward teams for taking on challenges.....Drexel has a great record...but they wouldnt have close to that record if they played teams with substance.

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Right...but you have to see when im playing power 6 schools in non conf, and throughout the year......and you are playing MEAC, A-10 schools all year.....naturally im going to lose a few more games.

 

Just going by wins doesnt reward teams for taking on challenges.....Drexel has a great record...but they wouldnt have close to that record if they played teams with substance.

 

Theoretically, if you're in a power conference, you should be recruiting better players than Drexel. Why get an automatic pass for some extra losses? Do a better job recruiting players who can compete with your level of competition.

 

If we're discussing ISU, I believe they should be in. Crap, with the expansion of the field, I'm not sure who is going to get left out.

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Theoretically, if you're in a power conference, you should be recruiting better players than Drexel. Why get an automatic pass for some extra losses? Do a better job recruiting players who can compete with your level of competition.

 

If we're discussing ISU, I believe they should be in. Crap, with the expansion of the field, I'm not sure who is going to get left out.

 

 

Oh yes ISU is in...im not neccessarily referring to that. (Side note....if they are not at least a 7 seed....its borderline criminal)

 

 

Anyway....i agree with you, but its not that easy. If me and you took a math test....my test i was adding 2+2 and 4-1, but on your test they mixed in a bunch of Trig, algebra, etc and i scored 4 points better than you. Did i REALLY do better than you? I would say not.

 

You have to reward teams that take the challenges. Drexel and only Drexel had the choice of who to play....they chose not to play ANYONE out of conference. Maybe its moot and they get it....but they certainly left themselves open to get bounced.

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ACC (5): North Carolina, Duke, Florida State, Virginia, North Carolina State

 

OK. Four in for sure with the fifth spot totally up for grabs between Miami-Florida and N.C. State. Whichever one plays better in the ACC tournament probably gets in. Are six teams possible. If both Miami and NC State made the ACC semi-finals, it's a possibility...but right now, I think those two are fighting for one spot only.

 

I guess I could be your ACC representative on the board. You nailed it pretty good Fumble. The consensus around these parts is that the Winner of the ACC Tournament (if UNC OR Duke) will be a probable #1 seed. Obviously if another team wins the tourney then neither Duke or UNC will.

 

FSU and UVA are locks even if they lose first round of the ACC tournament.

 

NC State and Miami are both firmly on the bubble. If either or both win two games in the Tournament (make it to the semi-finals) that would almost certainly put them over the top. If one or both wins only one game they would be smack dab in the middle of the bubble, and if either or both lose in the first round that would all but end their chances.

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Oh yes ISU is in...im not neccessarily referring to that. (Side note....if they are not at least a 7 seed....its borderline criminal)

 

 

Anyway....i agree with you, but its not that easy. If me and you took a math test....my test i was adding 2+2 and 4-1, but on your test they mixed in a bunch of Trig, algebra, etc and i scored 4 points better than you. Did i REALLY do better than you? I would say not.

 

You have to reward teams that take the challenges. Drexel and only Drexel had the choice of who to play....they chose not to play ANYONE out of conference. Maybe its moot and they get it....but they certainly left themselves open to get bounced.

 

Drexel year in and year out is a physical and talented team. That's Bruiser Flint's style. There aren't going to be teams seeking to play Drexel out of conference. They are at the mercy of teams that are WILLING to play them. Most high profile teams won't. They couldn't even get Clev St on their schedule until the Bracket Buster this year.

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Nice choke-job... Up nine with four minutes to go and lose in OT...

 

WVU doesn't deserve to go to the NCAA tournament IMO...

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Drexel year in and year out is a physical and talented team. That's Bruiser Flint's style. There aren't going to be teams seeking to play Drexel out of conference. They are at the mercy of teams that are WILLING to play them. Most high profile teams won't. They couldn't even get Clev St on their schedule until the Bracket Buster this year.

While Drexel might have a somewhat hard time scheduling big teams, their schedule was still significantly worse than the other top CAA teams (VCU - 152, George Mason - 180, Old Dominion - 109...Drexel - 245). When you schedule as badly as the Dragons did, that makes it all the more important to cash in on the few tough games they get. Scoring 35 against Virginia on a neutral court, and losing by double-digits to a fringe bubble St Joeseph's, not to mention three bad losses (Norfolk St, Georgia St, Delaware), in a down year for their conference adds up to a paper thin profile. VCU would have been a better at-large candidate.

 

 

Two things made abundantly clear tonight: Seton Hall better not make the tournament, and Louisville is going to be one of the easiest first round upset picks in the field.

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