Look-Alike Players: Jamaal Charles vs. DeMarco Murray

[Fumbleweed 422]

It's time for another summer of Look-Alike Player threads...if you're new to the Board, every few days during the summer, I will try to post a thread that lists two players who are very close in value in redraft situations. Simply vote for the player you feel should be drafted first and then add comments about your selection if you would like.

 

This is non-PPR for Look-Alike matchups that involve RBs, WRs, or TEs. Just standard point for every 10 yards and 6 for TDs.

 

Our fifth Look-Alike player matchup of the summer is: Jamaal Charles vs. DeMarco Murray

 

Previous matchup results

 

Miles Austin leads Dez Bryant, 18-15.

Steven Jackson over Frank Gore, 20-7.

Matthew Stafford leads Cam Newton, 31-9.

Victor Cruz leads Jordy Nelson, 16-6.

 

Thanks for your participation!!

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I would say demarco murray. He did not tear his acl, though he did have a fracture. I think his injury is easier to come back from and murrays main competition for carries is felix jones. No need to explain how brittle and inconsistant he is.

[lexdizzle 1]

its a tossup. on one hand you have a freak acl injury, on the other hand you have an injury prone type of player. as of right now id take murray, because he is already practicing. If Charles starts to practice and can make cuts id take him.

[ralphster 274]

These two dont look alike to me - different injuries, different offense, different type of backs. Murray is the one I'd look to take this year.

[Gepetto 979]

Look ALike is just a phrase. Don't take it literally. The point of these threads is who you would rather have on your fantasy team for 2012. I'll take DeMarco Murray (and I already did).

[GreenTD 56]

I'd go with Murray based on the nature of the two injuries.

 

The nice thing about Charles injury is that his happened back in September. He's had a long time to recover & rehab his knee but I haven't heard any news on his progression. Any KC homers have any insight on his rehab?

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

These two dont look alike to me - different injuries, different offense, different type of backs. Murray is the one I'd look to take this year.

They are typically within a few picks of each other which is usually the only criteria besides playing the same position.

[mobb_deep 917]

They are typically within a few picks of each other which is usually the only criteria besides playing the same position.

 

But it's cooler when they really do look alike. Like Tiki and Ronde Barber.

[420allstars 13]

Murray, but its very close for me

[lambert58 56]

Charles for me. He is going to be the centerpiece of the offense with very few options. Murray is going to be sharing the ball with Bryant, Austin, Witten, etc.

[polecatt 399]

I don't really see the comparison of the two but both are great backs and capable of being top 5. I'd take Murray for two reasons. Mainly, he's not coming of an ACL tear, a fracture isn't nearly as bad and should be okay. Second he's on a better team with a better offense. If Garrett can figure out how to run the ball in the red zone the Murray's value will sky rocket.

[mobb_deep 917]

Charles for me. He is going to be the centerpiece of the offense with very few options. Murray is going to be sharing the ball with Bryant, Austin, Witten, etc.

 

You don't think Hillis is going to see a lot of work on 1st and 2nd down?

 

If you ask me, Hillis is the back to own in KC. Especially when you look at current ADP.

[Doozer 0]

I have to go with Charles. Charles IS what makes their offense go. Last year w/o Charles the chiefs were 31st in scoring and 27th in yards. If Charles comes back and looks good in camp/preseason he is simply a much better running back than Peyton Hillis.

 

That isn't to say Hillis won't get his, he will, since they will likely carry the ball 450-500 times and Charles at best will only get 200-250 of those. But, if Charles is healthy, even 90%, I don't see Hillis impacting Charles' workload. Also, did everyone act like 2011 didn't happen? Hillis was a giant vajayna.

 

As for Murray, he has the potential to be great, I just don't see him lasting sixteen games. And somehow Felix Jones is still on an NFL roster.

[lambert58 56]

You don't think Hillis is going to see a lot of work on 1st and 2nd down?

 

If you ask me, Hillis is the back to own in KC. Especially when you look at current ADP.

 

I think if Charles is healthy he is going to get the vast majority of the 1st and 2nd down carries. I see Hillis in the Isaac Redman role in Pittsburgh. Play every third series or so to keep Charles fresh.

[Portis26 0]

I hate to pick a cowboy for anything, buy Murray is my pick here

[Patmos 2]

I think if Charles is healthy he is going to get the vast majority of the 1st and 2nd down carries. I see Hillis in the Isaac Redman role in Pittsburgh. Play every third series or so to keep Charles fresh.

 

I don't know... the new OC came from Cleveland where he had Hillis two years ago. I can see Hillis being the red zone back as well as the back who helps run the clock at end of games. Especially since Hillis is a good pass catcher as well. It's looking like a pretty even split to me (which of course make Hillis a great value pick).

 

I don't think Charles or Murray are worth the late first round/early second round pick you would have to use to get them....both have such big question marks...UNLESS you are in the Zealots league, then I think they are both top 10 players!

[kcBlitzkrieg 17]

I have to go with Charles. Charles IS what makes their offense go. Last year w/o Charles the chiefs were 31st in scoring and 27th in yards. If Charles comes back and looks good in camp/preseason he is simply a much better running back than Peyton Hillis.

 

That isn't to say Hillis won't get his, he will, since they will likely carry the ball 450-500 times and Charles at best will only get 200-250 of those. But, if Charles is healthy, even 90%, I don't see Hillis impacting Charles' workload. Also, did everyone act like 2011 didn't happen? Hillis was a giant vajayna.

 

As for Murray, he has the potential to be great, I just don't see him lasting sixteen games. And somehow Felix Jones is still on an NFL roster.

 

If you project Charles to have say 225 carries at 5.0 YPC (his career is right above 6 YPC) then you're looking for roughly 1125 rushing yards. Add to that a modest 30 receptions at 8 YPC (career is 8.9) gives you 240 receiving yards for close to 1400 total yards. TD expectations should be in the 6-8 range so a solid projection should be 205-220 fantasy points in ppr. Obviously we won't know how he looks until training camp but as long as the explosiveness is there with him these are very solid expectations. He has never had a history of injuries and as everyone knows the ACL injury occured very early in the season and he should be back to form by game 1.

 

I feel Murray is an equal to Charles but the red flag with him of course is his seemingly high potential for injury. This is not based off his ankle injury last year it is based off the guy's entire career dating back to his freshman year at OU. Yes most of his games missed were due to minor issues but the history is there. If he only plays 15 games then yes he should produce more rushing yards and TDs than Charles and will justify being drafted higher. If he misses significant action, say 3-4 games, then the opposite will occur.

 

With these two guys I believe it comes down to premise that both will produce similarly equal numbers, but one (Murray) should be expected to miss at least some time, whether that time be of a significant amount or not will be the difference in the production gap between the two. If you are more on the conservative side then roll with Charles and feel safe with what projections you have for him. The more aggressive drafter who wants more reward in exchange for the risk will go Murray and make sure his RB corp is good enough to survive the potential for his RB1 to miss some time.

[kcBlitzkrieg 17]

I don't know... the new OC came from Cleveland where he had Hillis two years ago. I can see Hillis being the red zone back as well as the back who helps run the clock at end of games. Especially since Hillis is a good pass catcher as well. It's looking like a pretty even split to me (which of course make Hillis a great value pick).

 

I don't think Charles or Murray are worth the late first round/early second round pick you would have to use to get them....both have such big question marks...UNLESS you are in the Zealots league, then I think they are both top 10 players!

 

Yes Daboll was the OC in Cleveland when Hillis had his break out season 2 years ago but he was also the OC for the Dolphins last year during Reggie's career best rushing season. KC's offensive line is a strength of the team and at worst still holds a slight edge over the line Miami put out last year.

 

In Miami the attempts breakdown was 216 to 165 for Reggie/Thomas and they ranked 11th in the league in rushing. In KC I expect that rank to be in the top 6 by years end with both backs looking to combine for over 400 carries between the two of them. Of course come the first of August we will have a much better idea as to how these two backs will split duties but I would guess that both of them will be used in a similar manner with regards to 1st/2nd/3rd down splits and goal line duties. Because both backs are so versatile and can run/catch between the 20s and within the goal line I would expect Daboll to rotate things pretty evenly. All this being said, I like Charles' potential to return to form and produce solid fantasy numbers but as far as value goes that honor will go to Hillis.