JLewis v M. Anderson - Projections

[mikedemelo 0]

I'm curious to know how people are projecting for JLewis and M Anderson. I'm thinking this is going to be a RBBC. Using the method I came up with in my previous post I get the following:

 

LEWIS 706-2

Anderson 712-8

 

Thoughts?

 

I like this example for a Wildman session because it has 2 bona fide starters, one with a new team and a new system and the other with stiff competition.

[famousb 11]

LEWIS 706-2

Anderson 712-8

 

most stories i've heard out of BAL is that MA is going to be used more as a FB than an RB - which means he'll be opening up more holes for JLew, and MA is a workhorse no matter what his role is.

If this is true, and JLew is getting the majority of the carries, and with the addition of McNair and a hopefully improved passing game, i could see projections like:

 

JLew - 1400- 6

MA - 200 - 4

[cblue 0]

With the addition of McNair I think the offense will open up considerably. Fewer situations with 8 in the box.

 

Lewis- 1300/10

Anderson- 400/4

 

 

Please see mine: http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...howtopic=213070

[hipcheck 0]

Not sure about some of those JAMAL LEWIS projections? (1300 & 10 TD's)

 

Seriously, He looked God Aweful last year, I mean real, real bad at times.

 

He did get a new contract, and he has less off field

issues & injuries this season, but the O-Line ain't what it was either?

 

 

 

Alot of Questions-marks for sure?

[Wildman 0]

I'm curious to know how people are projecting for JLewis and M Anderson. I'm thinking this is going to be a RBBC. Using the method I came up with in my previous post I get the following:

 

LEWIS 706-2

Anderson 712-8

 

Thoughts?

 

I like this example for a Wildman session because it has 2 bona fide starters, one with a new team and a new system and the other with stiff competition.

 

This looks very similar to Mike Krueger's thoughts on these two backs though he has more TDs for Lewis and fewer for Anderson.

 

One thing I'm keeping in mind is what you said about it being an RBBC. Lewis, as many said already, was pretty bad last year. Regardless of the reason, Lewis wasn't as productive and shared time with Chester Taylor--now a starter elsewhere. Did you realize that Lewis/Taylor was a 59%/26% split of total rushing attempts and a 56%/30% split in yardage? In otherwords, it wasn't a 50/50 split. Even when rushing for 1000 yards in 2004, Lewis and Taylor had close to the same split:

 

Name	Att	Yds	R Tds	Att/G	Yds/G	Yds/Att	% Att	%Yds/G	%Tds
Lewis	235	1006	7	19.58	83.83	4.28	47.86%	48.76%	63.64%
Taylor	160	714	2	10.00	44.63	4.46	32.59%	34.61%	18.18%

 

Anderson and Bell while together in Denver at a 44%/32% split in carries and a 40%/36% in yardage. This was much closer to an even split than in Baltimore.

 

So I think your projections should depend on the dates of your draft(s). If drafting earlier in the preseason you may want to be more cautious with Lewis and project their yards more like Denver's split percentages. Once we get a better idea how the workload may shake out, then you adjust accordingly.

 

Two other factors you need to consider: McNair and the Ravens returning to a 4-3 defense. The defense's return to the 4-3 should make them more effective due to the help it gives to Ray Lewis. This gives the offensive more opportunities and likely more to run the ball. You should probably look at defensive stats from last year. Here's some suggestions:

 

1. Look at opposing offenses time of possession vs. the Ravens last year and compare it to the last time the Ravens were in the 4-3 with a healthy Ray Lewis. Take the difference in that time of possession or something close and convert those minutes into passing and rushing yardage. Add that yardage onto the Ravens offense as an approximation of how much more opportunities the running game may get. Then adjust your rushing projections accordingly.

 

2. Or look at average rushing yards allowed per game vs. the Ravens last year and compare it to the last time they were in the 4-3 with a healthy Ray Lewis. Add that difference onto your projected rushing totals.

 

3. Look at Kyle Boller's top 4-5 games and iaverage those numbers and the rushing numbers with it. Use those as a projection for what the rushing attack may look like with McNair if the numbers increased with the effectiveness of the passing game.

 

Whatever difference you add, you then determine how you see the RB situation in Baltimore.

 

Personally, I believe Anderson is viewed more as insurance to Lewis. I was down on JLew last year because it made no sense that he'd be ready while trying to rehab a surgically repaired ankle in the federal pen. I think he'll be better this year. I think top 15 is reasonable for Lewis, but I'd be most comfortable taking him if he were the 15th-20th back available rather a guy in the 10-15 range.

 

I hope that helps you out somewhat. In terms of your projections, I'd say they are low for Lewis by 200-300 yards. Mike Krueger does a very nice job with projections, but this is a case where I feel differently about the player in question. It's because he's more conservative than me. If you are a more conservative guy with player valuation, Krueger's numbers are fine. If you are risking that Lewis improves at least one more time in his career, then I think the numbers should be higher.