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DaBeerz

Moneyballing your picks in HTH matchups

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Gamblers will know those weeks when you pick all over the road teams and get shafted. Ever had that week where you would have done better just not overthinking it and blindly picking home teams every single week you would go like 10-6 and avoid that garbage week that sets you way back for the year?

 

If you look at the stats Historically, the NFL home team will win about 57 percent to 60 percent of the time in the regular season

 

 

I'm in a pool that tracks cumulative picks for the year. I am seriously thinking of just blind picking all home teams, ALL year and seeing how I do against the spread. On average other players pick around 62.5% for the year, so not terribly much better than just picking all home teams right? Right now using this method i'm picking 71%.

 

A few exceptions/rules I made for myself. I only pick a road team if they're a favourite, and I'm relatively sure they'll win and cover the spread. No road dogs. Yes this means I'll miss out on some upsets.

 

For everyone who is thinking this is the stupidest thing I've heard, just remember this is about consistency week to week and avoiding terrible weeks such as an 8-8 finish. If I went 10-6 every week, I would likely win the pool.

 

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