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TimmySmith

Playoff OT Rules

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No, it is not. It's a sporting event, the rules should be designed in a way that gives both participants as equal chance of winning as possible, they currently do not.

Jesus... Why don't we just give them both participation trophies and be done with it...

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how did it end ? Chiefs has plenty of chances to stop the Pat's.. how many 3 and longs ?

Chiefs ended it by failing not because of a coin flip.

Yep... You give up 36 first downs, allow 13/19 on third down conversions and 524 yards, you do NOT deserve to win...

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You are correct, my numbers did not include this year's OT games. Even with this year's outlier of the coin flip loser winning more than they lose, the winner overall still has a 6% edge.

 

I've been arguing this for a few years, so my emotions weren't at all affected by Sunday's game.

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Jesus... Why don't we just give them both participation trophies and be done with it...

 

yes, because that's exactly what I said earlier. :rolleyes:

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And those are old stats. According this reddit poster, currently the coin flip winner has won exactly 50% of the time 59 times out of 118 games. Of those only 23 were won on an opening drive TD; i.e. only roughly 1 in 5 games were won by opening drive TD where the other team got no chance to touch the ball.

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/aic4gt/since_the_overtime_rule_change_in_2012_the_team/

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You are correct, my numbers did not include this year's OT games. Your numbers though are including ties, which should not be counted in the winner/loss situation. Even with this year's outlier of the coin flip loser winning more than they lose, the winner overall still has a 6% edge.

 

I've been arguing this for a few years, so my emotions weren't at all affected by Sunday's game.

Why would you not include ties? There are three possible outcomes, team A wins, team B wins, or they tie. If they tie, team A did not win.

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And those are old stats. According this reddit poster, currently the coin flip winner has won exactly 50% of the time 59 times out of 118 games. Of those only 23 were won on an opening drive TD; i.e. only roughly 1 in 5 games were won by opening drive TD where the other team got no chance to touch the ball.

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/aic4gt/since_the_overtime_rule_change_in_2012_the_team/

fake outrage certificates stamped validated a documented

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Why would you not include ties? There are three possible outcomes, team A wins, team B wins, or they tie. If they tie, team A did not win.

 

Just deleted that...was working and realized that the ties should be included. :doh:

 

Still a 6% edge to getting the ball first.

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I've been arguing this for a few years, so my emotions weren't at all affected by Sunday's game.

Friggin Pats fans are so thin skinned they think Goodell might change the rules retroactively.

 

No outside fan wanted to watch the game end that way.

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No outside fan wanted to watch the game end that way.

I am not a Patriots or Chiefs fan and I did... KC should have stopped them, you know, sometime...

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I am not a Patriots or Chiefs fan and I did... KC should have stopped them, you know, sometime...

Posty, if you had invented sex, we'd be extinct.

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Just deleted that...was working and realized that the ties should be included. :doh:

 

Still a 6% edge to getting the ball first.

 

I have a hard time imagining a system that is going to be more fair than 53/47% with such a small sample size.

 

There's also the point that first score TDs happen only 20% of the time (which is supposed to be the big flaw). That means (disregarding defensive scores) 80% of the time the second team has had an opportunity to win the game just by kicking a field goal. I don't see how this is unfair to the second team. :dunno:

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Every years it's a new what rule can we change to stop the Patriots movement.

 

This would not even be a discussion topic if the chiefs had won the coin flip and scored a TD on it's 1st drive.

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I have a hard time imagining a system that is going to be more fair than 53/47% with such a small sample size.

 

There's also the point that first score TDs happen only 20% of the time (which is supposed to be the big flaw). That means (disregarding defensive scores) 80% of the time the second team has had an opportunity to win the game just by kicking a field goal. I don't see how this is unfair to the second team. :dunno:

 

Last year it was 55/45, this year seemed to be an outlier favoring coin flip loser, so perhaps more data is needed.

 

It's not just the 20% big flaw, but receiving the ball first off kick off generally means field position of no worse than 25. Gain 15 yards and now they have decent field position battle advantage ---probably why the coin flip winner has a 6 to 10% edge in winning. I think over 7 years now, a 6 to 10% edge is large enough to think about trying to get something closer to the margin of error.

 

Got a feeling that 8 years ago, the same folks would all be saying that sudden death was perfectly fair too...hey you didn't want them to score a FG and win...stop em. I'm always of the opinion all measures should be taken to make a sporting contest as fair as it can be, so if a small adjustment to the rules does that..do it.

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Last year it was 55/45, this year seemed to be an outlier favoring coin flip loser, so perhaps more data is needed.

 

It's not just the 20% big flaw, but receiving the ball first off kick off generally means field position of no worse than 25. Gain 15 yards and now they have decent field position battle advantage ---probably why the coin flip winner has a 6 to 10% edge in winning. I think over 7 years now, a 6 to 10% edge is large enough to think about trying to get something closer to the margin of error.

 

Got a feeling that 8 years ago, the same folks would all be saying that sudden death was perfectly fair too...hey you didn't want them to score a FG and win...stop em.

 

They don't start at no worse than the 25. That is only in the case of a kick not returned from the end zone.

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Last year it was 55/45, this year seemed to be an outlier favoring coin flip loser, so perhaps more data is needed.

 

It's not just the 20% big flaw, but receiving the ball first off kick off generally means field position of no worse than 25. Gain 15 yards and now they have decent field position battle advantage ---probably why the coin flip winner has a 6 to 10% edge in winning. I think over 7 years now, a 6 to 10% edge is large enough to think about trying to get something closer to the margin of error.

 

Got a feeling that 8 years ago, the same folks would all be saying that sudden death was perfectly fair too...hey you didn't want them to score a FG and win...stop em.

I have always thought that first score should win... That is why it was called sudden death...

 

Oh, you gave up points in OT, but since we don't want to be unfair, here, we will give you a chance...

 

Just dumb...

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I have always thought that first score should win... That is why it was called sudden death...

 

Oh, you gave up points in OT, but since we don't want to be unfair, here, we will give you a chance...

 

Just dumb...

 

Great, it's called football too, cause you used to only advance the ball with only your feet, but things change.

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Didn't' read thru the entire thread, not sure if this was mentioned.

 

The reason the current system if flawed, the reason both teams should get the ball once - is bcoz the game (now) so heavily favors and protects the offense. The rules in today's game are set up to encourage scoring - to help the offense. To go on defense 1st is a huge disadvantage, HUGE.

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NFL should abolish all kickers.

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how did it end ? Chiefs has plenty of chances to stop the Pat's.. how many 3 and longs ?

Chiefs ended it by failing not because of a coin flip.

You, understandably, wanted to see your team win. The rest of us wanted to see this battle continue.

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Last year it was 55/45, this year seemed to be an outlier favoring coin flip loser, so perhaps more data is needed.

 

It's not just the 20% big flaw, but receiving the ball first off kick off generally means field position of no worse than 25. Gain 15 yards and now they have decent field position battle advantage ---probably why the coin flip winner has a 6 to 10% edge in winning. I think over 7 years now, a 6 to 10% edge is large enough to think about trying to get something closer to the margin of error.

 

Got a feeling that 8 years ago, the same folks would all be saying that sudden death was perfectly fair too...hey you didn't want them to score a FG and win...stop em. I'm always of the opinion all measures should be taken to make a sporting contest as fair as it can be, so if a small adjustment to the rules does that..do it.

 

More data is definitely needed but last year wasn't really a big outlier. There's tons of variance from year to year both in terms of the number of game that go into OT and how they shake out. In the seven years of regular season data the flip losers have won more games three times.

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Remember when BB won the toss in OT against the Jets and deferred? :doh:

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You, understandably, wanted to see your team win. The rest of us wanted to see this battle continue.

you would have if the chiefs stopped them

See saints game for reference

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BufordT's solution: Sudden death, no kickoff. Make the coin toss winner make a tough decision. Either go on offense starting at your own 10 yard line or defer.

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BufordT's solution: Sudden death, no kickoff. Make the coin toss winner make a tough decision. Either go on offense starting at your own 10 yard line or defer.

 

10 or 25, what's the diff? one extra 1st down? whoopie

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10 or 25, what's the diff? one extra 1st down? whoopie

5 yard line? 1 yard line?

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5 yard line? 1 yard line?

 

Don't think the chefs were stopping anyone on Sunday. From anywhere. They sucked in the last 5 minutes

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And those are old stats. According this reddit poster, currently the coin flip winner has won exactly 50% of the time 59 times out of 118 games. Of those only 23 were won on an opening drive TD; i.e. only roughly 1 in 5 games were won by opening drive TD where the other team got no chance to touch the ball.

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/aic4gt/since_the_overtime_rule_change_in_2012_the_team/

Sunday the results were 1-1. Saints and Pats got the ball Saints lost and the Pats won and both losers are b$tching. I cannot believe this is were some of you get your entertainment, it doesn’t sound like most of you had any fun. There is so much more to do on a Sunday afternoon.

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Sunday the results were 1-1. Saints and Pats got the ball Saints lost and the Pats won and both losers are b$tching. I cannot believe this is were some of you get your entertainment, it doesn’t sound like most of you had any fun. There is so much more to do on a Sunday afternoon.

 

I can't tell if you are agreeing with me or arguing with me so either :thumbsup: , or GFY. :dunno:

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:thumbsup:

 

Really about the only "fair" thing you could do, is play out a timed extra period. And even in that case there's the possibility that one team will get an extra possession.

This would really be best.

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No, it is not. It's a sporting event, the rules should be designed in a way that gives both participants as equal chance of winning as possible, they currently do not.

 

they have an equal chance of winning in regulation

 

considering that less than 50% of all drives in the NFL lead to touchdowns, they have an equal chance of winning as well, stop a TD, that is all

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The winner of the flip wins 55% of the time, a significance great enough to alter the rules. Winning the coin toss makes you a 10% favorite.

 

yes, but they don't win 55% of the time on the first drive. In order to get an accurate statistic, how many times are games won in OT on the first drive?

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2018

 

Week-----OT Games-----Result

1 ---1----tie

2 ---1----tie

3 ---1----Saints win on opening drive

4 ---3----all 3 teams that win, do so after other team scored or with a FG

5----2----Browns and Texans both win with a FG

6----1----Dolphins win on FG

7----1----Bucs win on FG

13---1---Giants win on FG

14---2---Cowboys win on opening drive, Chiefs win on FG

15---1---49ers win on FG

16---1---Packers in on TD, but not on opening drive

 

thats 15 games, and 2 of them won on the first drive

 

the system is fine

 

I also know personally of two games that involved the Chargers, 1st against the Titans, they scored in the final seconds and went for the win with the 2pt and failed, and the Chargers went for two against the Chiefs and won, both instances would have gone to OT

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yes, but they don't win 55% of the time on the first drive. In order to get an accurate statistic, how many times are games won in OT on the first drive?

Roughly 20% of the time.

 

I asked the dude on Reddit who ran the numbers I posted on the first page if he had any idea how this compares to coin flip losers who win with a field goal on their first possession, but he didn't know. I would like to see that stat but I'm not going to do the legwork.

 

Yeah it sucks that sometimes teams don't get to touch the ball, but to be the first team who can win the game by kicking a field goal is a distinct advantage in its own right, IMO. There's also the fact that you know what the first team has done, so you know exactly what you need to do and you can use all four downs if necessary. There are some advantages to being second, if you survive the initial drive.

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Didn't' read thru the entire thread, not sure if this was mentioned.

 

The reason the current system if flawed, the reason both teams should get the ball once - is bcoz the game (now) so heavily favors and protects the offense. The rules in today's game are set up to encourage scoring - to help the offense. To go on defense 1st is a huge disadvantage, HUGE.

This is the main reason the current system sucks.

 

Saying stop em, play defense, etc. just doesn't wash. It's just not that simple anymore.

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