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Doug Baldwin overreaction or common sense


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#1 CornKobb

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Posted 01 November 2018 - 08:12 AM

Well Im at 3-5 and suffering through the doug baldwin pitiful season so far. He is my #3 and I keep thinking he comes around. I was encouraged / teased with his 6-91 outing and then a bye week to only get 2-20 something last week. 

 

LAC this week at home and I continue to have Tyler Lockett on my bench. 

 

I know and would put my house on the line as soon as I bench baldwin he goes 8-110 td but He is killing me.

 

Any thoughts on this situation besides it suxxxxxxxxx would be appreciated. PPR league. thanks.



#2 jrokh

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Posted 01 November 2018 - 08:45 AM

if you have the room, keep him stashed. Wilson to Baldwin big plays in the latter parts of the season are well established 



#3 Mullog

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Posted 01 November 2018 - 08:48 AM

I think Lockett is the safer play with a higher floor.  He has caught a TD in all but one game so far!  In PPR you can safely expect at least 10 points and as high as 15-17.  Baldwin could give you a goose egg - or he could blow up.  So the question is, what do you want to do with your #3WR?  Play it safe or roll the dice for a possible big score?


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#4 BobSanders_33

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Posted 01 November 2018 - 09:14 AM

I dropped him last week and another owner blew 53% FAB on him.

 

Looking at the past as a future predictor for Baldwin is useless.  Different OC and a totally different game plan.  Add on top of that a bad knee.  Not the same recipe for success.

 

Go back and look at the targets from the prior three years: 103, 125, 116.  Now he is getting a fraction of those targets. In years past Baldwin could get 12-15 targets in a great game.  Now Wilson is dropping back 23 times per game and Seattle is running the ball 25 times per game (and effectively).

 

Baldwin is a guy living off of name and past success.  If he is your WR3 I think that you can pull a match up off of waivers each week and get better results.



#5 huskyhater75

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Posted 01 November 2018 - 09:28 AM

I dropped him last week and another owner blew 53% FAB on him.

 

Looking at the past as a future predictor for Baldwin is useless.  Different OC and a totally different game plan.  Add on top of that a bad knee.  Not the same recipe for success.

 

Go back and look at the targets from the prior three years: 103, 125, 116.  Now he is getting a fraction of those targets. In years past Baldwin could get 12-15 targets in a great game.  Now Wilson is dropping back 23 times per game and Seattle is running the ball 25 times per game (and effectively).

 

Baldwin is a guy living off of name and past success.  If he is your WR3 I think that you can pull a match up off of waivers each week and get better results.

  I dropped Baldwin Tuesday for Marvin Jones and I agree with everything written above. 


  It's far better to keep your mouth shut and have people wonder than to open it and remove all doubt


#6 jrokh

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Posted 01 November 2018 - 09:34 AM

If I read the situation correctly you aren't considering dropping Baldwin just merely benching him? If that is the case then yes definitely bench him, he should be in prove it mode for you before you can play him. I don't have any inside info on his balky knee and if he is truly not healthy that would change my analysis. That being said, Past production is as good a predictive tool as anything available. Every Year people complain about Wilson and Baldwin and every year in the area around mid-November they put up big plays. I certainly understand Owners who prematurely dropped him rooting for his continued futility, but I would hold and bench for the time being. I don't own Baldwin but I have been trying to trade for him for weeks. 



#7 CornKobb

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Posted 01 November 2018 - 10:07 AM

If I read the situation correctly you aren't considering dropping Baldwin just merely benching him? If that is the case then yes definitely bench him, he should be in prove it mode for you before you can play him. I don't have any inside info on his balky knee and if he is truly not healthy that would change my analysis. That being said, Past production is as good a predictive tool as anything available. Every Year people complain about Wilson and Baldwin and every year in the area around mid-November they put up big plays. I certainly understand Owners who prematurely dropped him rooting for his continued futility, but I would hold and bench for the time being. I don't own Baldwin but I have been trying to trade for him for weeks. 

 

Yes that is correct....I can start either baldwin or tyler lockett in a ppr. Im not dropping either. Davante and Kelce are my other two wr/te



#8 envoy9

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Posted 01 November 2018 - 10:13 AM

As a Baldwin owner in my keeper league I have been benching him all season. He is obviously injured and should probably be on IR. That being said, definitely bench for Lockett, but dont drop in 12 team leagues.

#9 CornKobb

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Posted 01 November 2018 - 10:34 AM

as soon as I am ready to bench baldwin and start lockett i read the fantasypros.com week 9 primer. Says the Chargers weak spot is there slot CB and Tyler Lockett will be shadow by Chargers top CB Casey Hayward. Also said Lockett despite scoring only has 5-47 receiving in last 2 weeks.

 

Dang it I need to draft better



#10 DrG

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Posted 01 November 2018 - 10:42 AM

Id look at the Chargers secondary game stats and see how they do vs the bigger body wrs vs the speed guys and how theyve been against the run. I have Baldwin on my bench and believe him now matchup and gamescript dependent only vs plug n play

#11 jgcrawfish

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Posted 01 November 2018 - 10:51 AM

I had Baldwin in 3 leagues.  I've now parted with him in all three.  When Seattle said they were going to go run heavy, they meant it..Schottenheimer wasn't f'ing around about it and they really are a run-first team.  This isn't like past years where Russell Wilson picks up his game and carries the team.  Over 7 games this season he's averaging 17 completions on 26 attempts per game, and the number has been dropping since the start of the season.  He has zero 300 yrd games this season and only 1 game above 250 this year, the 1st one.  Baldwin is only getting a 20% target share, which works out to 3.4 catches per game on 5.2 targets.  That is simply not enough volume.  At the average (for Wilson) of 9 yards per completion that's only 30 yards a game or so, or 6 points in PPR.  

 

He's gone from all my rosters I'm not really looking back.  



"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." (Edmund Burke)

#12 jrokh

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Posted 01 November 2018 - 11:07 AM

I had Baldwin in 3 leagues.  I've now parted with him in all three.  When Seattle said they were going to go run heavy, they meant it..Schottenheimer wasn't f'ing around about it and they really are a run-first team.  This isn't like past years where Russell Wilson picks up his game and carries the team.  Over 7 games this season he's averaging 17 completions on 26 attempts per game, and the number has been dropping since the start of the season.  He has zero 300 yrd games this season and only 1 game above 250 this year, the 1st one.  Baldwin is only getting a 20% target share, which works out to 3.4 catches per game on 5.2 targets.  That is simply not enough volume.  At the average (for Wilson) of 9 yards per completion that's only 30 yards a game or so, or 6 points in PPR.  

 

He's gone from all my rosters I'm not really looking back.  

you may be right that Seattle has morphed into a running team, but I would be remiss if I didn't point out that Wilson passed for nearly 250 and 3 TD against a Run Funnel defense where they lead for most of the game.



#13 American Chewy

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Posted 01 November 2018 - 01:39 PM

If baldwin had gotten that 2nd foot down in the endzone last week this is probably a different discussion. That said i need to win now and can't afford another 3 point week from him. He's on my bench for now.

#14 jgcrawfish

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Posted 01 November 2018 - 01:44 PM

you may be right that Seattle has morphed into a running team, but I would be remiss if I didn't point out that Wilson passed for nearly 250 and 3 TD against a Run Funnel defense where they lead for most of the game.

3 TD in 17 completions is not a sustainable pace.  one simply cannot throw a TD every 6th time the ball is caught.  



"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." (Edmund Burke)

#15 jrokh

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Posted 01 November 2018 - 01:56 PM

3 TD in 17 completions is not a sustainable pace.  one simply cannot throw a TD every 6th time the ball is caught.  

sure, but the point is Wilson will have good games throwing even when defense and game script are against him. If we assume that he won't throw Tds at such a high rate, we can also assume game script won't always be in favor of run heavy situations like last week when they were way out in front for most of the game. Of course that doesn't mean Baldwin will be the recipient of higher passing volume, which is the topic at hand.

#16 jgcrawfish

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Posted 01 November 2018 - 02:37 PM

sure, but the point is Wilson will have good games throwing even when defense and game script are against him. If we assume that he won't throw Tds at such a high rate, we can also assume game script won't always be in favor of run heavy situations like last week when they were way out in front for most of the game. Of course that doesn't mean Baldwin will be the recipient of higher passing volume, which is the topic at hand.

He may be useful if the Seahawks fall behind, but their defense is coming around and running the ball control offense they have been more likely means less passing and lower scoring affairs.  Add to it his admitted "balky knee" that won't ever be 100% this season and it's handwriting on the wall for me that I made a bad pick.  He's averaging 7.5 ppr points since he returned from the injury.  Thanks for but no thanks.



"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." (Edmund Burke)

#17 jrokh

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Posted 01 November 2018 - 03:09 PM

He may be useful if the Seahawks fall behind, but their defense is coming around and running the ball control offense they have been more likely means less passing and lower scoring affairs.  Add to it his admitted "balky knee" that won't ever be 100% this season and it's handwriting on the wall for me that I made a bad pick.  He's averaging 7.5 ppr points since he returned from the injury.  Thanks for but no thanks.

Last three years Before week 10 Baldwin had 7 total TD's. Week Ten and after He had 22 Td's. No guarantee the pattern continues and your points are valid, but it is a solid data point to speculate on keeping the faith with dougie if you are able.



#18 weepaws

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Posted 01 November 2018 - 03:22 PM

Well Im at 3-5 and suffering through the doug baldwin pitiful season so far. He is my #3 and I keep thinking he comes around. I was encouraged / teased with his 6-91 outing and then a bye week to only get 2-20 something last week. 
 
LAC this week at home and I continue to have Tyler Lockett on my bench. 
 
I know and would put my house on the line as soon as I bench baldwin he goes 8-110 td but He is killing me.
 
Any thoughts on this situation besides it suxxxxxxxxx would be appreciated. PPR league. thanks.


I would start Lockett.

He as scored a td in all but one game.

He will be called upon to do so again this weekend.

Baldwin is just simply not healthy enough, he said this past off season that would be the case this season.

Good luck with this tough decision.
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#19 jgcrawfish

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Posted 01 November 2018 - 04:01 PM

Last three years Before week 10 Baldwin had 7 total TD's. Week Ten and after He had 22 Td's. No guarantee the pattern continues and your points are valid, but it is a solid data point to speculate on keeping the faith with dougie if you are able.

"Past history is no guarantee of future performance".  Again, IMO, they have made a greater commitment to running the ball and that won't change unless game script dictates it.  

 

vs Los Angeles Chargers
@ Los Angeles Rams
vs Green Bay
@ Carolina
vs San Francisco
vs Minnesota
@ San Francisco
vs Kansas City
vs Arizona

 

There is some offensive firepower there, but they also play a whopping 6 of 9 at home.  If i had to make a prediction, Wilson finishes just outside the top 12 over those weeks Baldwin is more like WR30 at best.  



"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." (Edmund Burke)

#20 jrokh

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Posted 01 November 2018 - 04:29 PM

Obviously will see how it all unfolds, I am still going to try and trade for him if his price ever comes down to market rate or close enough

#21 CornKobb

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Posted 04 November 2018 - 04:11 PM

yep.....going just as i imagined....jaron brown td. doug baldwin 45 yard reception. Tyler Lockett zero. 

 

unreal. 



#22 jrokh

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Posted 04 November 2018 - 04:15 PM

Patience is a virtue...

#23 CornKobb

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Posted 04 November 2018 - 05:13 PM

Yep. They knew I benched him

#24 CornKobb

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Posted 04 November 2018 - 05:38 PM

1-4 lockett. Double digit every week. Until I start. Lmao

#25 huskyhater75

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Posted 04 November 2018 - 05:54 PM

Baldwin has finished top-12 WR in NFL fantasy the  last 4 years (I believe, might be more), and they just had a bye. I read where the "experts" (not taking others credit if true) predicted Seattle would be much better 2nd half of the season-and if they do, they're gonna have to have Baldwin doing better-he's better than Lockett, plus Wilson had a strained hammy. Both Wilson and Baldwin should be better from the bye week, getting rested from their injuries.


  It's far better to keep your mouth shut and have people wonder than to open it and remove all doubt


#26 CornKobb

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Posted 04 November 2018 - 07:16 PM

Lmao 80% fantasy experts on fantasy pros, etc etc etc said Baldwin in trash. I will play Baldwin next week and get 2-6. Lockett has had double digit scoring every week until yours truly started him lol

#27 Jedi Sensei

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Posted 04 November 2018 - 10:48 PM

Lmao 80% fantasy experts on fantasy pros, etc etc etc said Baldwin in trash. I will play Baldwin next week and get 2-6. Lockett has had double digit scoring every week until yours truly started him lol

 

In fairness, he almost came down with the catch in the endzone that drew the flag to extend the game one more play.  But yeah, "almost" isn't a scoring method in most leagues...



#28 jimaveli

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Posted 05 November 2018 - 07:17 AM

The pie is too small in the Seattle pie to take a blind slice of it week after week. Thats what we do with fantasy all the time. Starting a receiver is asking for a slice, not specifying how big you want the slice to be, and hoping that its a big one. Sometimes you get a 6 for 74. Others you only get a 3 for 14. Other times? 8 for 143.

Not even getting a slice of an allegedly big pie is enough to guarantee a big slice. Pittsburgh. Tampa. New Orleans. But every year, lots of us get caught starting James Washington. Chris Godwin. Cameron Meredith. See? Scary.

So, you will not catch me starting an unpredictable member of a passing game with a small pie. Sure, we could also be wrong about the size of the pie! But back to the OP, Seattle has made it clear that they will run the ball with anyone as opposed to throwing it around a bunch.

#29 CornKobb

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Posted 05 November 2018 - 07:31 AM

The pie is too small in the Seattle pie to take a blind slice of it week after week. Thats what we do with fantasy all the time. Starting a receiver is asking for a slice, not specifying how big you want the slice to be, and hoping that its a big one. Sometimes you get a 6 for 74. Others you only get a 3 for 14. Other times? 8 for 143.

Not even getting a slice of an allegedly big pie is enough to guarantee a big slice. Pittsburgh. Tampa. New Orleans. But every year, lots of us get caught starting James Washington. Chris Godwin. Cameron Meredith. See? Scary.

So, you will not catch me starting an unpredictable member of a passing game with a small pie. Sure, we could also be wrong about the size of the pie! But back to the OP, Seattle has made it clear that they will run the ball with anyone as opposed to throwing it around a bunch.

Very true, this is my #3 wr we are talking about though. I have rarely had the choices of pie you have though. Its a 14 man league. In a perfect world I see what you are saying. 

 

oh.....and im gonna lose by four points..... Thanks Lockett....lol.....

 

send me a case of kleenex.

 

Oh i also benched Mike Davis upon knowing Carson was starting and played booker....ppr league. another 6 point difference. lol



#30 jimaveli

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Posted 05 November 2018 - 08:57 AM

I too sat Mike Davis and lost 10 points vs what Carson got in his guest appearance. I have deep disdain for Pete and his inability to be truthful about player health.

Yeah, deep leagues make it tough but the point remains..wide receiver scoring has been ridiculously random this year outside of the main folks. Meanwhile, the narrative of WR depth continues.

#31 jgcrawfish

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Posted 05 November 2018 - 10:38 AM

11.7 ppr points isn't what you paid for with Baldwin at his draft spot.   As I mentioned, he's going to be completely game script dependent.  Seattle falls behind, Baldwin sees a few throws.  But 4 receptions on 4 targets isn't what I want to count on.  



"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." (Edmund Burke)

#32 CornKobb

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 07:45 AM

And wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy too much politics for Doug Baldwin. Im happy he is into this but geez save it for retirement or the offseason.

 

His Head is on another Planet with all the Political views, etc.

 

not good for a fantasy owner.

 

Oh and a groin now.....no practice wednesday. 



#33 weepaws

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 09:38 AM

Yeah that’s a new injury.
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#34 CornKobb

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Posted 08 November 2018 - 10:40 AM

Just picked up this Maurice Harris slot guy from Washington? Ashamed to say i didn't even know he existed. Had 10-110 rec last week no td. 

 

Now Paul Richardson is done for the year, Crowder hasn't practiced since week 5, Reed is always banged up. 

 

I may go wild side and start this no name 6 ft 200 lb slot wr over both Baldwin and Tyler Lockett just on the fact he is healthy, no other threats besides Doctson, and its the Tampa Bay Bucs they play this week