PPR --- Draft OBJ or Julio ?

[SMath3333 10]

Both see lots of targets and are established stars in their primes.

 

Reason to pick OBJ is that Julio appears a bit more brittle and hasn't been a stud end zone target like OBJ

 

Reason to go with Julio is that he's got the better Fantasy QB in a higher powered offense, and he doesn't have Brandon Marshall and Sterling Shepard cutting into his targets

 

Can't go wrong with either one, but can only have one.

[polecatt 402]

I would pick Beckham

Julio will get banged up and he's a little streaky

Odell has been pretty reliable up to this point

[weepaws 2,459]

Wow thanks for this question.

 

I have Beckham Jr. ranked number one on my wr list so he's who I would go with.

[BobSanders_33 127]

I'd go Julio. I think that I can get enough out of all my players to make the playoffs. At that point I love his schedule. I also think that Julio can be sort of handcuffed late with Gabriel. If Julio misses time Gabriel can be a usable WR2 or better with flex appeal during the season.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Beckham due to health reasons

[Ray_T 590]

Both are great choices. but I'd pick Beckham.

 

Julio is streaky and gets hurt a bit. Also, I think that the Giants arrow is pointing up. Lots of times with a team, the stats tend to display how the team is doing as a whole.

 

with the Giants improving, I think Beckham's upside will show more.

[jdon 28]

Michael Thomas

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Michael Thomas

You are high

[ralphster 274]

In redraft I prolly take Julio. Dynasty and its OBJ no contest.

[delchay 6]

I like Julio just because Eli is now in decline.

[weepaws 2,459]

Same QB Beckham had last season when Beckham ranked 4th in ff points in ppr for WRs.

[delchay 6]

All teams in the NFC East have a tough schedule this year. Some good defenses against them. Eli looked lost in his new offense. Will he rebound? Maybe, He is just losing to father time. Either choice is good. I had TB on a couple of teams and it was feast of famine all year long with him. The rap on Julio is his health and constant feet problems.

[Hawkeye21 1,853]

I keep thinking that the addition of Marshall and Engram this year along with Shepard from last year will hurt OBJ's overall numbers. I just don't see him getting the same amount of targets with more weapons on the team.

[weepaws 2,459]

Depends on what one does with them targets.

 

Hopkins last season had 151 targets and he scored 197 ppr ff points.

 

Jones had 129 targets and he scored 259 ppr ff points.

 

Production can be gain even with less targets.

 

And having more help around him to take away some of the coverage he usually sees may indeed allow him more room to make even more playes down field.

[Ray_T 590]

I keep thinking that the addition of Marshall and Engram this year along with Shepard from last year will hurt OBJ's overall numbers. I just don't see him getting the same amount of targets with more weapons on the team.

one thing you have to take into account:

 

The offense as a whole will be far more effective because Eli has another good WR to throw the ball to.

 

What this means is that OBJ may get a small decrease in the percentage of plays directed his way, but he will also be getting a smaller percentage of a larger pie.

 

This means that Eli likely wont forcefeed OBJ when he is double covered(low percentage play anyhow) because Marshall will likely be a better option in that scenario. So he loses those, but when the third down conversion rate goes up because Eli throws to Marshall instead of a double covered Beckham Jr, this means there will be more first downs, and the pie gets bigger because both WR's will get a new set of downs.

 

so maybe the play count on offense goes up by 5-10% (maybe more)

 

It is also possible that the presence of Marshall reduces the chances of Odell being double covered as well. All I can say is I really think Eli is going to have a good year. Perhaps the best year he has had in a long time.

 

This coming fantasy year, I am buying whatever this offense has to sell if the price is reasonable.

[delchay 6]

The Marshall-- OBJ effect will really help the G-Men running attack. Teams will get killed if they blitz Eli.

[Hawkeye21 1,853]

one thing you have to take into account:

 

The offense as a whole will be far more effective because Eli has another good WR to throw the ball to.

 

What this means is that OBJ may get a small decrease in the percentage of plays directed his way, but he will also be getting a smaller percentage of a larger pie.

 

This means that Eli likely wont forcefeed OBJ when he is double covered(low percentage play anyhow) because Marshall will likely be a better option in that scenario. So he loses those, but when the third down conversion rate goes up because Eli throws to Marshall instead of a double covered Beckham Jr, this means there will be more first downs, and the pie gets bigger because both WR's will get a new set of downs.

 

so maybe the play count on offense goes up by 5-10% (maybe more)

 

It is also possible that the presence of Marshall reduces the chances of Odell being double covered as well. All I can say is I really think Eli is going to have a good year. Perhaps the best year he has had in a long time.

 

This coming fantasy year, I am buying whatever this offense has to sell if the price is reasonable.

 

I agree that it makes the entire offense more effective but I don't see that adding up to a better season for OBJ. I believe he'll still have a really good season but not the top WR this year like some think he will be.

[weepaws 2,459]

If you don't see him as the top wr like I do, where do you see him?

 

Top Five? Top four? Top three?

[Hawkeye21 1,853]

If you don't see him as the top wr like I do, where do you see him?

 

Top Five? Top four? Top three?

 

Easily the top 5 but probably top 3. My first thought is Brown, Jones and then OBJ. Evans could sneak into that top 3 for me. Jordy is in play as well but I think there's going to be a decline very soon.

[weepaws 2,459]

So if you see him finshing in the top three then you do indeed see him finshing better then he did last season.

 

He was forth in points in ppr last season.

 

I see it the same has you do, I think he will be better and can surpass Evans who I think can lose some targets based on the addition of D jax and even the rookie te Howard and the return on Sims who's used a lot in the passing game.

 

I'm with you about Nelson, I see some fall off this season.

 

I think it was pretty easy to see him returing last season and posting the numbers he posted, but I don't see him being second in ff points this season.

 

And I truly so see Brown not finshing number one this season, I think Ben is going to have one eye on playing and the other on his rocking chair.

 

Which is way I have Beckham ranked number one.

[Raider 84 29]

OBJ

[redsrback 30]

Ive always got Eli in the very late rounds, looks like the hype train wont let this happen. Be nice to take Eli late and Julio, but not the other way around.

[Ray_T 590]

So if you see him finshing in the top three then you do indeed see him finshing better then he did last season.

 

He was forth in points in ppr last season.

 

I see it the same has you do, I think he will be better and can surpass Evans who I think can lose some targets based on the addition of D jax and even the rookie te Howard and the return on Sims who's used a lot in the passing game.

 

I'm with you about Nelson, I see some fall off this season.

 

I think it was pretty easy to see him returing last season and posting the numbers he posted, but I don't see him being second in ff points this season.

 

And I truly so see Brown not finshing number one this season, I think Ben is going to have one eye on playing and the other on his rocking chair.

 

Which is way I have Beckham ranked number one.

well, the falloff will be happening soon. I think he has one more top end season in him. After that, all bets are off for me.

[Kent 228]

Did Antonio Brown die?

[delchay 6]

Ive always got Eli in the very late rounds, looks like the hype train wont let this happen. Be nice to take Eli late and Julio, but not the other way around.

 

I will take Eli as a back up QB this year. If he improves, you might have two QB- 1's on your squad.

[weepaws 2,459]

I would agree with the post above.

 

But he has so much talent to throw too that I just know someone will reach for him as a qb1.

[Hawkeye21 1,853]

 

I will take Eli as a back up QB this year. If he improves, you might have two QB- 1's on your squad.

 

I'll pick Eli up off waivers if I need a bye week QB most likely. I can't imagine anyone sitting on him that long if they have a capable starter. If Eli ends up putting up top 10 numbers then obviously he moves into the starter role for that team and the other QB most likely gets dropped. There's always a decent QB to be had on waivers.