Strategy Drafting From the #5 or #6 Hole?

[SMath3333 10]

Most drafts have the top three RBs going 1,2,3 followed by Antonio Brown at #4.

 

Julio Jones and OBJ often come off the Board next,... and then anything can happen, depending on league scoring and personal preference (Evans?, McCoy?, Freeman? Gordon?).

 

What I don't like about taking Jones or Beckham at 1.05 or 1.06 is that you're looking at dudes like Gurley, Lynch, or Fournette as your RB1 when it's your turn in the second round. Not very appealing. Or if you draft best available player in Round 2, maybe Gronk or Dez, .... then your RB1 is Crowell, Mixon, or some other dude that carries very high risk.

 

Is it better to bypass Julio Jones and OBJ at #5 or #6, grab Shady McCoy, and then take Dez, or TY Hilton, or perhaps even Michael Thomas in Round 2?

 

Bottom line, .... do you prefer Julio/Gurley or McCoy/Dez (or McCoy/TY) ?

[jaxjag 43]

Julio/Gurley or ODB/Gurley

[Ray_T 587]

Most drafts have the top three RBs going 1,2,3 followed by Antonio Brown at #4.

 

Julio Jones and OBJ often come off the Board next,... and then anything can happen, depending on league scoring and personal preference (Evans?, McCoy?, Freeman? Gordon?).

 

What I don't like about taking Jones or Beckham at 1.05 or 1.06 is that you're looking at dudes like Gurley, Lynch, or Fournette as your RB1 when it's your turn in the second round. Not very appealing. Or if you draft best available player in Round 2, maybe Gronk or Dez, .... then your RB1 is Crowell, Mixon, or some other dude that carries very high risk.

 

Is it better to bypass Julio Jones and OBJ at #5 or #6, grab Shady McCoy, and then take Dez, or TY Hilton, or perhaps even Michael Thomas in Round 2?

 

Bottom line, .... do you prefer Julio/Gurley or McCoy/Dez (or McCoy/TY) ?

I think its a know your league thing.

 

assuming it's a serpentine draft what you wanna do is look at who drafts after you.

 

you draft at 6 (assuming it's a 10 teamer) and the guy drafting 7, 8, 9, and 10 will each get two picks before you select again.

 

are any of these guys RB hounds?

 

or are they the type that would grab WR?

 

depending on the answer, I'd want to figure out the best way to use their draft tendencies to your advantage.

 

a RB hound would grab a RB in round 1 for sure and maybe one in round 2 as well. but someone playing the zero RB strategy wont take one in the first 2 or 3 rounds.

[Hawkeye21 1,848]

I would consider McCoy and then the best WR in the next round depending on who's there.

[weepaws 2,452]

M Gordon.

 

That's the pick.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I would probably grab McCoy and just pray he stays healthy all year.

[bobby heenan 60]

Julio/Gurley or ODB/Gurley

 

I agree this is a solid start.

 

Gurley is going to bounce back this year. They added an all Pro LT, cut the fat that is Greg Robinson, and upgraded at C. I think this Sean McVay is going to breathe some new life into this team and offense. Goff will get a full camp with 1st team reps. Hes going to be a solid value IMO. Especially if he were to fall into the late 2nd/early 3rd area.

 

I owned Shady last year. Took him 3rd round in one of my high stakes leagues. Id hate to own him again as I feel anything less than last year would be a let down for me.

 

When people look at Gurley I think they are down on him in a big way. But remember how quickly things can change. Take a look at two guys last year everyone was down on and they bounced back. One was with an entirely different team/scheme. And one was with the same team. Murray and Shady. I think Gurley can fit into that category this year.

[weepaws 2,452]

Why would you settle for McCoy, when you can take MGordon.

 

And especially Gurley who I would agree will rebound from last season , but he won't surpass M Gordon.

[Hawkeye21 1,848]

Why would you settle for McCoy, when you can take MGordon.

 

And especially Gurley who I would agree will rebound from last season , but he won't surpass M Gordon.

 

Why are you so sure Gordon is going to be that much better than McCoy this year? I have McCoy about 20 points ahead of Gordon right now with projections so I don't see how that's settling.

[SMath3333 10]

Julio/Gurley or ODB/Gurley

Either one. I am viewing Julio and Beckham as fairly equivalent although reasonable minds may differ.

[weepaws 2,452]

Lol when it comes to ff no one is sure.

 

I have Gordon ranked third on my Rb list so he's the pick here.

 

I like the Chargers this season and I think they will have a high scoring offence.

 

And Gordon will be in involved so much In the game plan, who's the other Rbs on the Chargers?

 

No Woodyhead to complete with for targets in the passing game means he will without question improve on his 57 targets he had last season.

 

I think his avg per rush will indeed improve from what it was last season at 3.9.

 

And I think he can easily score 15 plus total Tds.

 

I'm not sold that McCoy will score 14 tds with his current team, so I see his td numbers fallen to about 11 total for him.

 

So with the tds total alone based on last season that about makes them even in the points category.

 

Gordon had more targets then McCoy last season and for more yards last season.

 

And my if McCoy indeed avg this season another 5.4 yards per carry on his team I would be surprised.

 

I think he will fall to 4.8 or so.

 

So his rushing yards will indeed then drop so he would have less ff points.

 

I think Gordon's avg will rise to around 4.2 or so which means his ff points will raise and he will indeed surpass mr McCoy

[giraldi02 470]

 

Why are you so sure Gordon is going to be that much better than McCoy this year? I have McCoy about 20 points ahead of Gordon right now with projections so I don't see how that's settling.

I think if you have guys that closely projected (1pt per week difference), injury risk weighs heavily.

 

It seems those willing to grab Shady are already hoping he doesn't get hurt. Given his extensive workload, I'll take the young guy with an equally unsettled depth chart behind him.

[Ray_T 587]

Lol when it comes to ff no one is sure.

 

I have Gordon ranked third on my Rb list so he's the pick here.

 

I like the Chargers this season and I think they will have a high scoring offence.

 

And Gordon will be in involved so much In the game plan, who's the other Rbs on the Chargers?

 

No Woodyhead to complete with for targets in the passing game means he will without question improve on his 57 targets he had last season.

 

I think his avg per rush will indeed improve from what it was last season at 3.9.

 

And I think he can easily score 15 plus total Tds.

 

I'm not sold that McCoy will score 14 tds with his current team, so I see his td numbers fallen to about 11 total for him.

 

So with the tds total alone based on last season that about makes them even in the points category.

 

Gordon had more targets then McCoy last season and for more yards last season.

 

And my if McCoy indeed avg this season another 5.4 yards per carry on his team I would be surprised.

 

I think he will fall to 4.8 or so.

 

So his rushing yards will indeed then drop so he would have less ff points.

 

I think Gordon's avg will rise to around 4.2 or so which means his ff points will raise and he will indeed surpass mr McCoy

woodhead played only a couple games all year. so there was no competition for carries last year either.

 

Gordon will be running behind Two rookie linemen. And rookies arent always good their rookie year. There will be growing pains for that line and it wont likely come together until the second half. (possibly even next season)

 

I'm not predicting a decline, but I do think Gordons numbers will be only slightly higher than last year overall.

 

the big year for Gordon will be next year once those rookies are more established and comfortable with the pro game.

 

for me, your projections would represent the upside if everything went perfectly. to achieve that, the Rookies both play at a high level out of the gate, and gel quickly with the rest of the line. Tuerk (3rd round pick last year) needs to be NFL ready as a starter. last year was basically a red shirt year for him, but he is supposed to be the best pulling(run blocking) center in last years draft.

 

personally, with all the new faces, I dont see the line gelling quickly. I'd expect slightly sub par numbers in the first 6-8 games of the season with substantially better numbers in the second half.

 

if either of the rookies (or Tuerk) are not ready to start, your upside projection wont happen.

 

he's a RB1 for sure. I just dont have him as top 3.

 

In a redraft league, I figure he will likely rank somewhere between #5 and #8 for RB's for fantasy points (standard league scoring). with 60% of those totals coming in the second half of the season.

 

so if someone in your league overpays for Gordon and you dont get him, the time to get him will be 5 or 6 games into the season (or possibly earlier if the GM who owns him starts to panic)

 

in dynasty/keeper leagues, I'd rank him #3 overall because his future potential is substantially better than what I see him doing this year.

[weepaws 2,452]

You might be right Ray.

 

My projections could be out of line.

 

But that's what Im rolling with.

 

And that was my answer to Hawkeye on why I would rather take Gordon over McCoy.

 

I think Gordon will indeed have a better over all season then he did last year and last year he avg 19 points per game in ppr and so did McCoy.

 

I see less risk with Gordon.

 

And I still have him ranked third Rb over all and yes like you pointed I could be wrong.

 

I'm never sure about anything when it comes to ff.

[phillygrrl08 139]

In a 12 team league Gordon won't be around for 2.20 if you're picking from the 5 slot. Ajayi won't, either. Dez and Gronk might be. I'm happy to miss out on early RBs and get TEs and WRs early and often in PPR and be content with Ty Montgomery, Spencer Ware, and reaching on a healthy well-rested Doug Martin (3 game suspension).

 

If you're playing for money, don't overthink this. Best player available. Pass on Julio and OBJ for McCoy and watch the guy drafting behind you win the league.

[weepaws 2,452]

Ty Montgomery and Ware might both be rb2 before long on their own teams.

 

I wouldn't be happy with that.

[phillygrrl08 139]

And McCoy might pull a hammy in camp.

 

Are you really going to pass on Julio and OBJ for McCoy?

 

My point is, there are good RBs to be had in later rounds. Don't be a meathead and leave a premiere WR on the board for McCoy.

[weepaws 2,452]

No I thought I made it perfectly clear.

 

I wouldn't draft McCoy.

 

But how can you say you would be content with two Rbs that might be rb2 of their own teams ?

 

But if I did take McCoy I would be better off with McCoy and then picking up k Benjamin or Crabtree or even a A Robinson or j Landry, and I would be better off then a J Jones and either Ty Montgomery or Ware who very well could be rb2 on their own teams.

[phillygrrl08 139]

The Op posed this question:

 

"Is it better to bypass Julio Jones and OBJ at #5 or #6, grab Shady McCoy, and then take Dez, or TY Hilton, or perhaps even Michael Thomas in Round 2?"

 

I don't think it is wise to pass on an OBJ or Julio for McCoy, that's all.

[weepaws 2,452]

If you can get McCoy and either M Thomas or T Hilton or D Bryant, don't you indeed think that's better then J Jones or Beckham with Ty Montgomery and or S Ware?

 

I'm just asking you a question ? That's all.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Per FFToday's projections,

 

Julio + Montgomery = 501 total points

 

McCoy + Hilton = 511 total points

 

I did not use Michael Thomas over Hilton because I believe his points are just way over inflated. I am not sold he can handle top coverage every week.

[bobby heenan 60]

If you can get McCoy and either M Thomas or T Hilton or D Bryant, don't you indeed think that's better then J Jones or Beckham with Ty Montgomery and or S Ware?

 

I'm just asking you a question ? That's all.

 

That doesnt make sense though. If you are getting Shady and either Thomas, Hilton or Dez I would assume those are you first 2 picks. If you are getting Jones and Beckham with Montgomery or Ware I would assume Jones and Beckham were your first pick but that you didnt take Ware or Montgomery till many rounds later.....so essentially youve maybe already have Jones/Beckham and Thomas/Dez/TY to start.

 

Not that I for one am sold on Ware and Montgomery. I think Montgomery is a better bet to produce and keep a substantial role than Ware is IMO. The x factor for Montgomery becomes when does he have a flare up and how soon are they comfortable rotating those rookies in.

[polecatt 399]

I would take the best available player. Which at your spot, would probably be Odell to me in the 1st.

Rounds 1 and 2 are way too early to start chasing positions. If it has to be 2 WRs then so be it.

You need to draft studs early on regardless of position. Then fill the holes later with depth.

[Ray_T 587]

If you can get McCoy and either M Thomas or T Hilton or D Bryant, don't you indeed think that's better then J Jones or Beckham with Ty Montgomery and or S Ware?

 

I'm just asking you a question ? That's all.

This is certainly a situation you can do some mocks for.

 

then you go to your projection sheet and ask what's the better outcome?

 

I'm inclined to agree, that it looks like a RB is the better pick at this point in the draft.

[weepaws 2,452]

Yeah but if I can get a stud Rb and Wr first two picks I'm going to do so.

 

This is a good question and I thank the OP for the post.

[double tour 57]

In that scenario, if PPR, your favorite RB in round 1, then best player available in round 2. If round 2 best player is RB, then take him. Then pop on WRs for 1-2 rounds.

[bjsteel 34]

Damn, I draft 7th in a 10-team PPR, and if one of Jones or OBJ are available, I'd be thrilled. More than likely, I'll have to choose between AJ Green and Mike Evans, then take the best RB available in the 2nd rd.

[weepaws 2,452]

I think that's an interesting question.

 

Personally I went no Rbs early on some of my ppr teams last season and didn't really like it much.

 

I think it's easier to find production later in the draft from WRs then from Rbs.

 

Buts that's how I see it

 

I really try to draft with balance in mind.

 

So if I do go Rb first I'm more then likely go give the nod in the second round to the wr I have ranked highest on my cheat sheet.

[bjsteel 34]

I think that's an interesting question.

 

Personally I went no Rbs early on some of my ppr teams last season and didn't really like it much.

 

I think it's easier to find production later in the draft from WRs then from Rbs.

 

Buts that's how I see it

 

I really try to draft with balance in mind.

 

So if I do go Rb first I'm more then likely go give the nod in the second round to the wr I have ranked highest on my cheat sheet.

 

Completely agree, I went heavy WR early last year and my team sucked...while there are many reasons for that (lol), I plan on drafting a RB within the first 2-rounds, then go heavy WR after that.

[double tour 57]

 

Completely agree, I went heavy WR early last year and my team sucked...while there are many reasons for that (lol), I plan on drafting a RB within the first 2-rounds, then go heavy WR after that.

I never understood the zero RB approach. I had my most success going RB heavy when many others were WR heavy early.

[weepaws 2,452]

I truly believe that's it's indeed hard to pass up on a top wr in a ppr league for a stud Rb, so I agree with what Phillygrr had posted.

 

But if I can pickup a stud Rb this season and its in the first round I'm going to do that.

 

I think it works out better, now atleast for me it does.

[weepaws 2,452]

I bought into it last season, and I agree I didn't care for it.

[Hawkeye21 1,848]

I have a feeling people are going to be disappointed with RB scoring this year. I still think the top 3 RBs are correct but I don't think it's going to end up like last year. If anyone actually looks at what DJ and Bell did you'd see they were historically great seasons and will be incredibly hard to duplicate. After some historically bad RB fantasy seasons and great WR seasons we saw the tables turn and now that DJ and Bell had great years most seem to think that will be the norm again. I still think that RBs are returning back to their top status some but I'm not sure it's going to be as big as some think.

[weepaws 2,452]

I would agree, most seasons a lot of players under perform from their rankings.

 

I think going for a top Rb and I see only five of them that I would consider.

 

So in the leagues I'm in they are twelve team leagues this season, means I will still have seven wr listed as first round picks.

[phillygrrl08 139]

I'm aiming for balance in my first three rounds, with BPA in mind. In a ten team league there is no reason why you can't have Jones or OBJ in round one and have Ajayi, Freeman, Jordan Howard, or Murray as your #2 pick, which isn't too shabby. People are reaching for Marshawn in round 2, but he's a risk many are willing to take--well-rested and healthy in a dynamic offense? He may be fantasy gold this year.

 

I agree with the poster who said rounds 1 and 2 are too early to be chasing positions.

 

Also, if I recall, some of the impetus behind the Zero RB theory was RBs were more prone to season ending injuries due to the nature of their position. There are still good RBs available in the 4th, 5th, and 6th rounds. Doug Martin can be had in later rounds, you just need to factor in his 3 game suspension and maybe pick up the hot TB RB in camp. I think the TB offense is going to be solid this year, plenty of weapons, and a diverse game plan may put some serious points on the board.

[SMath3333 10]

I'm aiming for balance in my first three rounds, with BPA in mind. In a ten team league there is no reason why you can't have Jones or OBJ in round one and have Ajayi, Freeman, Jordan Howard, or Murray as your #2 pick, which isn't too shabby. People are reaching for Marshawn in round 2, but he's a risk many are willing to take--well-rested and healthy in a dynamic offense? He may be fantasy gold this year.

 

I agree with the poster who said rounds 1 and 2 are too early to be chasing positions.

 

Also, if I recall, some of the impetus behind the Zero RB theory was RBs were more prone to season ending injuries due to the nature of their position. There are still good RBs available in the 4th, 5th, and 6th rounds. Doug Martin can be had in later rounds, you just need to factor in his 3 game suspension and maybe pick up the hot TB RB in camp. I think the TB offense is going to be solid this year, plenty of weapons, and a diverse game plan may put some serious points on the board.

Original poster weighing in,... first thanks to all for their thoughtful and respectful responses.

 

When drafting 5 or 6, I think it makes a huge difference whether you're playing in a 10 team league or a 12 team league. In a 10 team league, you can grab an elite receiver and then nab a guy like Ajayi or Murray in the second round as your RB1 and feel pretty good. In contrast, in a 12 team league, there will be four additional players off the Board (vs a 10 team league) when it's time to make a selection in Round 2. All the elite and near-elite RBs are gone by your second round selection and you are hinging your RB production on guys like Gurley, Lynch, and Lamar Miller. It just feels like you're already chasing RB value in Round 2. And God forbid, you select BPA in round two, perhaps start off WR/WR, then you're REALLY chasing RB production through the remainder of the draft. Sure, I'd love to find midround value in guys like Perkins, Montgomery, and Ware, but they are all rolls of the dice. It feels much better rolling dice when I already have a strong RB contributor and am looking for a diamond in the rough to emerge as an RB2 or Flex.

 

That brings me back to my original question,... is it best to bypass Julio and OBJ at pick 5 or 6 to select McCoy (or Gordon) knowing that I'll get a pretty solid WR in Round 2 and potential mid round RB value with several lottery pick selections, ... or would that be overthinking things and one should just grab Julio or Beckham when they have a chance and not look back?

[Hawkeye21 1,848]

Original poster weighing in,... first thanks to all for their thoughtful and respectful responses.

 

When drafting 5 or 6, I think it makes a huge difference whether you're playing in a 10 team league or a 12 team league. In a 10 team league, you can grab an elite receiver and then nab a guy like Ajayi or Murray in the second round as your RB1 and feel pretty good. In contrast, in a 12 team league, there will be four additional players off the Board (vs a 10 team league) when it's time to make a selection in Round 2. All the elite and near-elite RBs are gone by your second round selection and you are hinging your RB production on guys like Gurley, Lynch, and Lamar Miller. It just feels like you're already chasing RB value in Round 2. And God forbid, you select BPA in round two, perhaps start off WR/WR, then you're REALLY chasing RB production through the remainder of the draft. Sure, I'd love to find midround value in guys like Perkins, Montgomery, and Ware, but they are all rolls of the dice. It feels much better rolling dice when I already have a strong RB contributor and am looking for a diamond in the rough to emerge as an RB2 or Flex.

 

That brings me back to my original question,... is it best to bypass Julio and OBJ at pick 5 or 6 to select McCoy (or Gordon) knowing that I'll get a pretty solid WR in Round 2 and potential mid round RB value with several lottery pick selections, ... or would that be overthinking things and one should just grab Julio or Beckham when they have a chance and not look back?

 

I have McCoy, Gordon, Julio and OBJ all very close in projected points right now so I don't see an issue with taking any of them. For me, I would take the RB because I feel the WRs in the second round have more value than the RBs.

[cyclone24 1,799]

I have McCoy, Gordon, Julio and OBJ all very close in projected points right now so I don't see an issue with taking any of them. For me, I would take the RB because I feel the WRs in the second round have more value than the RBs.

This.

 

I also like mccoys schedule vs julios schedule. Just don't see anyone on the turnaround that matches Shadys level of output....nor for julio but feel like the gap is closer, and the risk lower.

[seafoam1 1,878]

I have a feeling people are going to be disappointed with RB scoring this year. I still think the top 3 RBs are correct but I don't think it's going to end up like last year. If anyone actually looks at what DJ and Bell did you'd see they were historically great seasons and will be incredibly hard to duplicate. After some historically bad RB fantasy seasons and great WR seasons we saw the tables turn and now that DJ and Bell had great years most seem to think that will be the norm again. I still think that RBs are returning back to their top status some but I'm not sure it's going to be as big as some think.

 

I don't think sometimes it's so much about what overall points are showing throughout the league for the running back position at the end of the year. Most leagues require 2 starting RBs per team and injuries run havoc on starting running backs as they do every year. So depth is of utmost importance and to me, an starting the draft with quality RBs gives you the edge for at least the first half of the season on your games. I think I just find healthy RBs are more consistent on a week to week basis (excluding Ajayi - ).

 

This debate is one reason why I truly love auction drafting over snake drafting; much more control of how you set up your roster.

[weepaws 2,452]

That's why I prefer snake drafting over auction drafting, you indeed have less control, and makes it for more strategy per rounds.