Jay Ajayi

[redsrback 30]

Go out there and ring the bell of the 400 carry guy.

[polecatt 402]

He'll be fine

[Brutal Brutus 182]

He'll be fine

Unless he play's a decent defense.

[redsrback 30]

He'll be fine

Think your missing the point.

[BobSanders_33 127]

He'll be fine

 

It's just a brain. They heal fast!

[Ray_T 590]

as far as I can tell it's his first concussion. So long as the team doesnt push him into the lineup quickly he will be okay.

 

as this is exhibition, I dont think there will be a whole lot of pressure to push him into the lineup.

[redsrback 30]

as far as I can tell it's his first concussion. So long as the team doesnt push him into the lineup quickly he will be okay.

 

as this is exhibition, I dont think there will be a whole lot of pressure to push him into the lineup.

No it was during practice, my point is how does such a bad offense get there best hopes bell rung.

[Kent 228]

No it was during practice, my point is how does such a bad offense get there best hopes bell rung.

Bad coach? Same coach who benched Ajayi to start the year and almost crippled his confidence. I drafted Ajayi late last year and couldn't believe what I saw to start the season. Didn't bring him to an early game? Coach should've been fired.

 

This wouldn't happen in AZ because the coach would cut anyone who blasts DJ. That's likely not in place in miami.

[Crystal Meth Tweekers 26]

Bad coach? Same coach who benched Ajayi to start the year and almost crippled his confidence. I drafted Ajayi late last year and couldn't believe what I saw to start the season. Didn't bring him to an early game? Coach should've been fired.

 

This wouldn't happen in AZ because the coach would cut anyone who blasts DJ. That's likely not in place in miami.

 

OK so the coach didn't bring him to a early game to discipline him, Did you notice that he exploded after that? They were trying to use Arian Foster to at that point. So it seemed to work.

[Kent 228]

 

OK so the coach didn't bring him to a early game to discipline him, Did you notice that he exploded after that? They were trying to use Arian Foster to at that point. So it seemed to work.

The coach also didn't start him early when he was active. It's deeper how dumb the coach is. And Ajayi was correct in losing his mind at being demoted. He was clearly the best player on the team and he knew it.

[Maulers1973 117]

He torched Buffalo twice and Pittsburgh once. Outside of that, he was very pedestrian. I'm not high on him at all, but he appears to be a feature back as the others behind him on the depth chart are hot garbage. So, he's got that going for him.

[IGotWorms 3,313]

He torched Buffalo twice and Pittsburgh once. Outside of that, he was very pedestrian. I'm not high on him at all, but he appears to be a feature back as the others behind him on the depth chart are hot garbage. So, he's got that going for him.

Agreed all around.

 

He's not that great but he will get the touches. That makes him top 15 at least.

[Ray_T 590]

Agreed all around.

 

He's not that great but he will get the touches. That makes him top 15 at least.

That's all fine, but he's ranked top 10 on most draft boards.

 

I suppose that means he's overvalued and buyer beware.

[IGotWorms 3,313]

That's all fine, but he's ranked top 10 on most draft boards.

 

I suppose that means he's overvalued and buyer beware.

Meh, if he's around 10 I think that's okay. Any higher and I would definitely stay away

[Squintz82 45]

Struggling to buy this guy at 1.11. After DJ, Bell, Zeke, McCoy, Gordon, Freeman, and Murray, there's Howard, Ajayi, Gurley, and Miller. I want to like him based on his situation and team.

[weepaws 2,459]

I like Ajayi as a rb1.

 

I have no problem taking him.

 

It's his job no else will take work from him.

 

Read he's been working on his passing game, so maybe even more targets.

[thePRO 78]

I'll probably stay away. He torched the Bills twice last year. Then went for 200 against the Steelers.

 

Only went over 100 once. Then had games of 79, 77, 45, 61, 48, 51, 59, 33....

 

Now no Tannenhill.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

How much does Tanny injury hurt him? I suspect he will be sitting at the end of the 1st staring at me when I pick, but I don't love him.

[weepaws 2,459]

I like him because of touches more then talent.

 

In the games that he didn't post 100 plus yards he had a per rush ff of only 3.4.

 

So not a lot to love.

[Ray_T 590]

FYI, he's still in concussion protocall.

 

I'm thinking he got hurt a little worse than I thought. I wouldnt drop him down my board yet, but it's something to stay on top of.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

FYI, he's still in concussion protocall.

 

I'm thinking he got hurt a little worse than I thought. I wouldnt drop him down my board yet, but it's something to stay on top of.

Yeah, this is worrisome. Slow out of concussion protocol for a RB is a bad combination.

[Ray_T 590]

Yeah, this is worrisome. Slow out of concussion protocol for a RB is a bad combination.

well, he's got 3 more weeks til the start of the season.

 

it may just be that they are taking their time clearing him and there's nothing wrong with that, but there comes a point where you have to assume the injury is a bad one.

 

If he's still in protocall 2 weeks from now, I'd start considering whether I should take him off my draft board. because odds are good it was a bad one.

[IGotWorms 3,313]

He practiced today. Pads and helmet. Limited due to concussion protocol but he's out there. I'd say that's a positive sign

[Ray_T 590]

He practiced today. Pads and helmet. Limited due to concussion protocol but he's out there. I'd say that's a positive sign

well, that's good news. I'd hate to see his career end because of something like this.

[thePRO 78]

Gotta draft Thursday. Hate early drafts. Questions around Ajayi and Elliott's suspension. Running back competitions. Ugh.

[Mike Nice 40]

I love the people who say oh take away his 3 big games and he was "average" he only started what 11 games? That's almost taking away 28% of his games, and he still rushed for almost 1300 yards.

[Ray_T 590]

I love the people who say oh take away his 3 big games and he was "average" he only started what 11 games? That's almost taking away 28% of his games, and he still rushed for almost 1300 yards.

if you are gonna take away his 3 biggest games you also need to take away his 3 worst ones. (thats how these things should work)

 

that way you are left with the average.

 

you cant just exclude whatever games you want. From a statistical perspective that's a terrible way to make a decision.

[seafoam1 1,879]

The helmets trick these guys onto thinking their heads are safe. I wonder if rugby players get concussions very often or do they avoid hitting the way NFLers play?

[Brutal Brutus 182]

if you are gonna take away his 3 biggest games you also need to take away his 3 worst ones. (thats how these things should work)

 

that way you are left with the average.

 

you cant just exclude whatever games you want. From a statistical perspective that's a terrible way to make a decision.

Statistically speaking eliminating outliers is perfectly normal and a fine way to come to a conclusion. Whether or not 3 games constitutes as an outlier in such a small sample size, is another question. Standard scoring, if you look at his mean 11.1, median 7, mode 7 (3). If you eliminate the games in which he received under 10 carries (first 4 games pre starter role), his mode remains at 7, median is now at 8, but his average jumps up to 13.5. He has six games of 8 points or under (flex player), one 10 point game (RB2), and an 18 point game (RB1) and and three games over 25 (elite RB1).

 

Pretty much, he's more likely to produce at a RB2/flex level, but based his boom potential, he's a fringe RB1. Even more so if you look at the teams he torched, vs the teams he struggled against. He's a match up RB 1,2, or flex, based on last years statistics.

[RaiderHaters Revenge 3,583]

looking crazy good against 1st team Philly def

 

top 12 for sure

[Ray_T 590]

Statistically speaking eliminating outliers is perfectly normal and a fine way to come to a conclusion. Whether or not 3 games constitutes as an outlier in such a small sample size, is another question. Standard scoring, if you look at his mean 11.1, median 7, mode 7 (3). If you eliminate the games in which he received under 10 carries (first 4 games pre starter role), his mode remains at 7, median is now at 8, but his average jumps up to 13.5. He has six games of 8 points or under (flex player), one 10 point game (RB2), and an 18 point game (RB1) and and three games over 25 (elite RB1).

 

Pretty much, he's more likely to produce at a RB2/flex level, but based his boom potential, he's a fringe RB1. Even more so if you look at the teams he torched, vs the teams he struggled against. He's a match up RB 1,2, or flex, based on last years statistics.

I'm not saying it's not. but when you eliminate outliers, you typicallly will reduce the low ones and the high ones.

 

so if you have 10 games averaging 80 yards a game, 2 games where the player got 30 and 2 big games at around 130. your average is 80.

 

what you dont do is eliminate the two big games and say the average is 70 yards per game.

 

you eliminate the two biggies, the two duds, and get the 80 yard average which is the true indicator of how the player performed.

 

in theory, the good games and the crappy games should offset each other most of the time.

[kilroy69 994]

With cutlers big arm in town it can only help the run game.

[Ray_T 590]

With cutlers big arm in town it can only help the run game.

Cutler likes to checkdown his RB. Forte had most of his best years playing with Cutler.

 

This is one of the reasons I like Ajayi. His scouting report said he could catch the football, and this is one aspect of his game that has been underutilized up until now.

[American Chewy 98]

Dam I had pretty much written off taking ajayi but now he may be entering the discussion again at 2.03 for me.

[Mark91G 13]

am in a position to choose between him and freeman in a standard scoring league

I have issues with both a

jayi durability with the early concussion scare and he is a is a work horse no rest given but also huge numbers of carries

freeman has to share with coleman but should keep him healthy also he is proven and I feel is a better talent but has also just got paid

 

Iv been fighting the decision for weeks now but his performance against the eagles may have just put him a head for me.

[weepaws 2,459]

Guy was and has been a rb1 this whole offseason, and now you notice him.

 

Shame shame shame

[Borat33 17]

Looked great last night.

[Mark91G 13]

Guy was and has been a rb1 this whole offseason, and now you notice him.

 

Shame shame shame

I think a lot including myself have always seen him as a RB1 but are trying to rank him against other RB1s, to decide if he is top 5 top 10.

am trying to work out if he is set to out score freeman in standard or not

[weepaws 2,459]

I think I would stick with Freeman.

[Ray_T 590]

Freeman and Ajayi are two different backs with different styles and risk factors.

 

Ajayi has health issues. I'm not worried about the concussion. it's the only one of his career. If it was a bad one, he would have been out of action for longer than a month. he was out a couple weeks and that second week may have been unnecessary. He will be fine. I am more concerned with a bone on bone condition in one of his knees (I forget which knee it is)

 

This will likely shorten his career by a year or two, but shouldnt affect his production in the near future.

 

Freeman's issue is that he has a very similar back in Tevin Coleman playing on the same team that takes significant carries away from him.

 

while I predict and expect that both will put up fairly similar numbers over the course of the season, I personally would prefer the workhorse who does not share carries with another back. So I'd rank Ajayi a little higher even though Freeman has a bit more talent and ability.

 

so for me, the situation is better for Ajayi than it is for Freeman. If Coleman were to get hurt and miss significant time this year, then I'd rank Freeman ahead of Ajayi.

 

but that is not currently the case, so I rank Ajayi higher.

 

More out of personal preference due to situation than out of any expectation of better production.