Let's talk defenses....

[cyclone24 1,814]

I know the trendy thing to do is wait to draft, play weekly defenses, etc.

 

Went back over 3 year stretch where I have done that and I've never finished in the top half of defenses in our 12 team (I'd say I go with the top weekly expert picks for def 90% of the time)

 

So I'm looking to grab a defense earlier...

 

Who do you guys like this year? Anyone have an easy defensive schedule?

 

Like Arizona but they play a tough schedule.

 

Denver? Lost some guys, qb issues to sustain drives?

 

Seattle? Always tough, but do they still have that edge to them?

 

Be interested in your guys thoughts on who to take. Thanks.

[svtballa 8]

take a flier on Oakland. Looking like its going to be a very formaditable defense this year

[oldtimer 84]

Seattle and Arizona both get the 49'ers and Rams (with a rookie qb) twice this season. That's a plus. Denver has 3 DAMN good Cornerbacks, which is always something I look for. They will be fine on defense.

 

Under the radar types: Vikings (not really under the radar, but won't go as high as those above), Chiefs(solid across the board outside of one CB slot), Jaguars (Laugh now, but this isn't your mama's Jaguars) and a couple others that don't need listing. Myself, I like the Vikings and Jags as my defensive picks. If I miss the Vikings, which is who I want, then I'll grab the Jags a bit later. Some idiot will take Seattle or Denver 3 rounds too early.

[giraldi02 470]

Eagles.

No Chip, so the defense is on the field less.

Jim Schwartz.

You're welcome.

[oldtimer 84]

I like the Eagles, but wonder about their ability to stop the pass against Washington and the Giants, and how their D-Line will stack up against really good offensive lines. You are dead on with Schwartz though. I try to find aggressive D-Coordinators when possible and this guy is great.

[Maulers1973 117]

The Eagles don't have any talent on defense. The only ones worth reaching for are the Cardinals, Seahawks and maybe the Raiders. Everyone else is middle of the road as far as ffl scoring goes.

[giraldi02 470]

The Eagles don't have any talent on defense. The only ones worth reaching for are the Cardinals, Seahawks and maybe the Raiders. Everyone else is middle of the road as far as ffl scoring goes.

 

Fletcher Cox is easily a top 3 defensive lineman in the NFL. EASILY.

 

Additionally, Bennie Logan, Vinny Curry, Connor Barwin along that defensive line...now in a 4-3? With Brandon Graham serving as a situational pass rusher? There's talent along that line.

 

Jordan Hicks (Cowboys fans might remember him) is entering his second year in the league. If he didn't hurt his pec last season, he could've very well been the defensive rookie of the year in the NFC last season.

 

Everyone focuses on the lack of the defense because of Chip's failures on offense. The defense was on the field more than any other defense. Three straight years in a row. Time of possession matters...both for offense and defense. Again, look at 2014 Dallas Cowboys. When their offense was on the field for a while, it lessened the burden for the defense.

[Maulers1973 117]

 

Fletcher Cox is easily a top 3 defensive lineman in the NFL. EASILY.

 

Additionally, Bennie Logan, Vinny Curry, Connor Barwin along that defensive line...now in a 4-3? With Brandon Graham serving as a situational pass rusher? There's talent along that line.

 

Jordan Hicks (Cowboys fans might remember him) is entering his second year in the league. If he didn't hurt his pec last season, he could've very well been the defensive rookie of the year in the NFC last season.

 

Everyone focuses on the lack of the defense because of Chip's failures on offense. The defense was on the field more than any other defense. Three straight years in a row. Time of possession matters...both for offense and defense. Again, look at 2014 Dallas Cowboys. When their offense was on the field for a while, it lessened the burden for the defense.

 

I'll give you Barwin. That's about it. To score substantially in FFL a defense has to get sacks, take aways and defensive scores. The Seahawks and Cardinals have playmakers who can do that. The Eagles............not so much.

[giraldi02 470]

 

I'll give you Barwin. That's about it. To score substantially in FFL a defense has to get sacks, take aways and defensive scores. The Seahawks and Cardinals have playmakers who can do that. The Eagles............not so much.

 

Last season, the Eagles fantasy defense tied the Cardinals scoring the most TD's of any fantasy defense with 5 defensive TD's and 2 return TDs.

 

The season before? The Eagles scored the most TD's of all fantasy defenses. That's two years in a row where they're scoring points in that sense.

 

In 2014, the Eagles were 2nd in the NFL in sacks. While that number dipped last season, the entirety of the team was in disarray. This was particularly true after Jordan Hicks went out of the lineup.

 

Prior to Hicks' injury against Dallas Week 9, the Eagles did not allow an opponent to score more than 27 points. That included games against the Falcons, Cowboys (x2), Jets, Skins, Saints, Giants, and Panthers. They also did not allow a 300 yard passer in that time period

 

After Hicks was gone? The Eagles never allowed less than 20 points, and gave up more than 30 points five times. There were three games where the Eagles gave up 300+ yards passing.

 

This defense is going to cause havoc this year. Bypass them if you want, but they're going to be available late in the draft as a punt defense, and I'm willing to bet that they outperform 75% of the defenses this year in a fantasy sense.

[Maulers1973 117]

 

Last season, the Eagles fantasy defense tied the Cardinals scoring the most TD's of any fantasy defense with 5 defensive TD's and 2 return TDs.

 

The season before? The Eagles scored the most TD's of all fantasy defenses. That's two years in a row where they're scoring points in that sense.

 

In 2014, the Eagles were 2nd in the NFL in sacks. While that number dipped last season, the entirety of the team was in disarray. This was particularly true after Jordan Hicks went out of the lineup.

 

Prior to Hicks' injury against Dallas Week 9, the Eagles did not allow an opponent to score more than 27 points. That included games against the Falcons, Cowboys (x2), Jets, Skins, Saints, Giants, and Panthers. They also did not allow a 300 yard passer in that time period

 

After Hicks was gone? The Eagles never allowed less than 20 points, and gave up more than 30 points five times. There were three games where the Eagles gave up 300+ yards passing.

 

This defense is going to cause havoc this year. Bypass them if you want, but they're going to be available late in the draft as a punt defense, and I'm willing to bet that they outperform 75% of the defenses this year in a fantasy sense.

 

While they won't be in hurry up, that offense won't keep the defense off the field this year either. Hot garbage at QB and Matthews as the lead RB. No thanks. Also, no opposing team fears Jordan Matthews or Algolor.

[giraldi02 470]

 

While they won't be in hurry up, that offense won't keep the defense off the field this year either. Hot garbage at QB and Matthews as the lead RB. No thanks. Also, no opposing team fears Jordan Matthews or Algolor.

 

To each their own and you're clearly set in your beliefs. They had the same mess at offense last season though and outperformed expectations from a fantasy sense.

 

I'll gladly take my chance on the 25th Defense being drafted (as of Yahoo's ADP currently), but has finished in the top 12 the last two seasons despite them giving up the 4th most points last season, and 9th most points allowed in 2014.

 

Reaching for a defense has historically not worked out that well in most fantasy leagues. The Broncos, Panthers, Cardinals are nice, but they have questions as well. Broncos' offense is going to regress. Super Bowl hangover from Carolina. Cardinals entire team is contingent on Palmer staying healthy. Seattle might drop because of burning people early on last season, but I doubt it as the preseason continues.

 

If someone takes the Eagles from me, then I'll gladly snag the Jaguars. They get Dante Fowler, Myles Jack, Jalen Ramsey. They could very well take a major step upwards this season in a relatively weak division. Rashad Greene was actually a pretty decent punt returner in his limited opportunities. Averaged 16.72 yards per return on 18 returns and housed one.

 

I'd like the Raiders, but they're getting some hype it seems, and in my leagues I have Raiders homers that are obsessed with Mack. I also do question their secondary sans Woodson.

[Maulers1973 117]

I feel like you're making a good argument against your case. There are some "sneaky" good defenses out there. So, why reach. Even if you did get Seattle, Arizona or Philly, you can't be sure they'll produce more points. Thus, why not just wait until the last rd or 2nd to last rd like everyone else and take what's left. You're still probably going to get one of the 4 or 5 you are high on.

[weepaws 2,457]

Won't be happy drafting a defense early .

 

I say play the matchup game and stock up on other more important positions early .

[giraldi02 470]

 

I'll gladly take my chance on the 25th Defense being drafted (as of Yahoo's ADP currently), but has finished in the top 12 the last two seasons despite them giving up the 4th most points last season, and 9th most points allowed in 2014.

 

 

I feel like you're making a good argument against your case. There are some "sneaky" good defenses out there. So, why reach. Even if you did get Seattle, Arizona or Philly, you can't be sure they'll produce more points. Thus, why not just wait until the last rd or 2nd to last rd like everyone else and take what's left. You're still probably going to get one of the 4 or 5 you are high on.

 

Huh? The Eagles, as I mentioned are on average the 25th defense that's being drafted. They ARE the team that's there at the end of drafts...despite finishing as a top-12 defense the last two consecutive years. And given the changes with the team, there's no way they don't improve as a unit this season.

 

Oh...and Week 1 they play the Browns at home.

[cyclone24 1,814]

Won't be happy drafting a defense early .

I say play the matchup game and stock up on other more important positions early .

Flip side to that is draft one great defense, get ahead of the run...you don't have to spend another spot on a backup defense.

[Hawkeye21 1,852]

I feel drafting a defense is a terrible strategy. If you must go early then the earliest I would go is the 3rd to last round.

 

What you should do is look back at how defenses finished each year. The patriots continuously have a top 10 D yet go late in drafts. Pass on the Broncos and Seattle as the will most likely not be worth the cost to get them. Cardinals and Chiefs should be solid.

 

Another thing to consider is to avoid looking at total fantasy points in previous years and instead looking at weekly scoring. You want a consistent scoring D. Some defenses will finish at the top because they had three games where the scored a ton of points yet had just as many games with 0 or even negative.

[cyclone24 1,814]

I feel drafting a defense is a terrible strategy. If you must go early then the earliest I would go is the 3rd to last round.

What you should do is look back at how defenses finished each year. The patriots continuously have a top 10 D yet go late in drafts. Pass on the Broncos and Seattle as the will most likely not be worth the cost to get them. Cardinals and Chiefs should be solid.

Another thing to consider is to avoid looking at total fantasy points in previous years and instead looking at weekly scoring. You want a consistent scoring D. Some defenses will finish at the top because they had three games where the scored a ton of points yet had just as many games with 0 or even negative.

Good response...thanks

 

Just to play devils advocate.......let's say I'm in round 7. (Don't jump all over the round I used...just an example)

I've established my core RB and WRs. At that point as far as a qb and TE there is not a ton of variance. (6 pt Todd so abs tend to go a little earlier)....it would give me an opportunity to get the best defense in the league ahead of the run no??

[Hawkeye21 1,852]

Good response...thanks

 

Just to play devils advocate.......let's say I'm in round 7. (Don't jump all over the round I used...just an example)

I've established my core RB and WRs. At that point as far as a qb and TE there is not a ton of variance. (6 pt Todd so abs tend to go a little earlier)....it would give me an opportunity to get the best defense in the league ahead of the run no??

You're better off grabbing more depth at RB and WR. If anything you should still need a QB or TE at that point. If you have your QB and TE already then you better be grabbing a RB or WR because you need it badly.

 

Take my a defense that early never pays off. Rarely does the first picked defense finish #1. Your odds are just as good grabbing a defense at least 4 rounds later.

[weepaws 2,457]

Flip side to that is draft one great defense, get ahead of the run...you don't have to spend another spot on a backup defense.

What back up defense ? I play weekly match ups and it works for me .

 

I've had times when I reached for a defense that I really liked , and by the time the season ended I promised myself never again .

[the spanker 28]

 

To each their own and you're clearly set in your beliefs. They had the same mess at offense last season though and outperformed expectations from a fantasy sense.

 

I'll gladly take my chance on the 25th Defense being drafted (as of Yahoo's ADP currently), but has finished in the top 12 the last two seasons despite them giving up the 4th most points last season, and 9th most points allowed in 2014.

 

Reaching for a defense has historically not worked out that well in most fantasy leagues. The Broncos, Panthers, Cardinals are nice, but they have questions as well. Broncos' offense is going to regress. Super Bowl hangover from Carolina. Cardinals entire team is contingent on Palmer staying healthy. Seattle might drop because of burning people early on last season, but I doubt it as the preseason continues.

 

If someone takes the Eagles from me, then I'll gladly snag the Jaguars. They get Dante Fowler, Myles Jack, Jalen Ramsey. They could very well take a major step upwards this season in a relatively weak division. Rashad Greene was actually a pretty decent punt returner in his limited opportunities. Averaged 16.72 yards per return on 18 returns and housed one.

 

I'd like the Raiders, but they're getting some hype it seems, and in my leagues I have Raiders homers that are obsessed with Mack. I also do question their secondary sans Woodson.

 

Thanks really good informative insight on D's you can get at the end of your draft.

 

Your really high on Philly but how would you rank Philly, Jags, and Raiders D? Does the Eagles D stand apart from the others?

 

I've heard great things about Raiders too.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

 

Thanks really good informative insight on D's you can get at the end of your draft.

 

Your really high on Philly but how would you rank Philly, Jags, and Raiders D? Does the Eagles D stand apart from the others?

 

I've heard great things about Raiders too.

All this Raiders defense talk is really jumping their value. I keep missing them in my MFL10 drafts. I like them the most out of those three. I think the Jags defense is going to be ok, but their pass defense is still going to be a bit weak.

[R8RMick 242]

Don't sleep on the Raiders defense. Their pass rush and secondary are much improved. They might have the best pass rush in the league.

[Maulers1973 117]

Don't sleep on the Raiders defense. Their pass rush and secondary are much improved. They might have the best pass rush in the league.

 

Plus, they've added some ball hawks in the secondary. That's a good combo to have!!

[DrG 94]

The last 3 years the Raiders have made sound personnel decisions. KC, SD and Denver all have issues w age or w Denver, big transition at QB. Keep an eye on the Raiders. They are poised to take a leap. Will they, we will see ...

[Hawkeye21 1,852]

Everyone seems high on the Raiders, which is warranted, but what about the Vikings?

[R8RMick 242]

The last 3 years the Raiders have made sound personnel decisions. KC, SD and Denver all have issues w age or w Denver, big transition at QB. Keep an eye on the Raiders. They are poised to take a leap. Will they, we will see ...

Seriously, this is the best I've felt about a Raider team (both long and short term) since 1976. Don't believe me? How about Vegas.

 

On April 18th, a week or so before the draft, futures odds on Oakland winning SB51 were at 40-1 at the Westgate Sports book. Two weeks ago they were down to 15-1. Oddsmakers are all about business, not hype.

[weepaws 2,457]

Oddsmakers are all about making themselves money .

 

It's a game of enticement and that's why they play with them early lines.

[R8RMick 242]

Oddsmakers are all about making themselves money .

 

It's a game of enticement and that's why they play with them early lines.

 

LOL, maybe so. But I sure as hell took advantage of their generosity on that early action when I dropped a couple hundred on Oakland when I was in Vegas for the draft.

[Hawkeye21 1,852]

LOL, maybe so. But I sure as hell took advantage of their generosity on that early action when I dropped a couple hundred on Oakland when I was in Vegas for the draft.

And they appreciate your money.

[Maulers1973 117]

And they appreciate your money.

 

I think it's a good bet. If they don't suffer a significant injury, they're going to be really tough to beat.

[Hawkeye21 1,852]

 

I think it's a good bet. If they don't suffer a significant injury, they're going to be really tough to beat.

 

If you have a couple hundred to just part ways with then go right ahead. Too steep for me. I'd throw $10 down on that though.

[the spanker 28]

Any other sleeper D's out there?

 

Are the Bengals considered a sleeper?

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Any other sleeper D's out there?

 

Are the Bengals considered a sleeper?

They have good value imo. So I guess that makes them a sleeper?

[giraldi02 470]

Oddsmakers are all about making themselves money .

 

It's a game of enticement and that's why they play with them early lines.

 

Vegas team totals are pretty accurate. To dismiss them is to err.

 

http://dantheman.sportsblog.com/posts/3915536/vegas-nfl-season-win-totals-are-astoundingly-accurate.html

[Hawkeye21 1,852]

 

Vegas team totals are pretty accurate. To dismiss them is to err.

 

http://dantheman.sportsblog.com/posts/3915536/vegas-nfl-season-win-totals-are-astoundingly-accurate.html

Their odds also change based on the amount of money bet on one side. So not always based on how good they think a team is.

[weepaws 2,457]

I bet against the oddsmakers often , any it pays very will .

 

Maybe they are losing their touch .

[giraldi02 470]

Their odds also change based on the amount of money bet on one side. So not always based on how good they think a team is.

 

I'm guessing you didn't read the article. This guy took the early team totals, not the adjusted ones after preseason or right before Week 1. They're pretty accurate.

 

Chris Raybon did an article about how Vegas win totals translate to fantasy. Link.

 

Dismiss it if you want. But in order to get equal action on both sides, you better be damn close to the actual number. And they are. That's a pretty good indicative measure for projecting fantasy stats as well.

[the spanker 28]

Where would Minny's D be ranked among Raiders, Philly, Jags, and Bengals?

[giraldi02 470]

Where would Minny's D be ranked among Raiders, Philly, Jags, and Bengals?

 

Ahead of all them

[Maulers1973 117]

Don't sleep on Bengals. When healthy Atkins is a beast. Burfict and Jones are playmakers. Nelson defected to the Raiders, but they are a solid unit.

 

On the Vikings, I like Harrison Smith, but nobody else really stands out for me on that unit. They do have a solid group of LB's.

 

Of the group you asked about: Raiders, Bengals, Jags, Eagles and then Vikings.