Drafting Jimmy Graham at #4

[VermilionTiger 1]

In a PPR league where TEs can play the Flex, I just drafted Jimmy Graham with the #4 pick. I personally believe he has a lower bust rate than the RBs that were available at the 4th pick.

 

I managed to grab Zach Stacy and then Shane Vereen later in the draft, with Jordan Reed as my TE. My mindset is that Graham is playing my flex position, and is essentially my RB1 with Stacy my RB2 and Vereen my RB3.

[weepaws 2,452]

It's all good if that is what you wanted to do . To high for me .

[Matt Mueller 146]

I feel what you are saying as far as Graham's draft value but Stacy and Vereen are your RB 1s and 2s.

 

You cannot start Graham at RB when they get hurt or are on a bye.

[Matt Mueller 146]

That seems obvious but is worth noting.

 

Additionally I've see a lot of people somehow think a flex TE spot increases the TE value but I don't see it that way.

 

There seemed to be some of ''should I take Gronk and Graham' going around a few years back.

 

In a start 12 TE no flex league, I'm pretty confident that Graham is a pretty better production bet that Greg Olsen weekly.

 

Only 12 TEs, in theory, are in play weekly. He has a nice positional advantage built in.

 

Adding the flex, while it allows for more flexibility, almost slightly lowers his value.

 

What I mean is that your Reed is now facing my Olsen. Positional advantage? Maybe but it's a wash basically.

 

Your 'Flex' Graham now has to go up against my RB 3 or WR 4.

 

Any given week that could be Steven Jackson, Sproles, Nicks, Shorts or any number of players capable of putting up nice weeks.

 

RB-WR are inherently more upside plays typically once the stud TEs are gone.

 

Again nothing wrong with Graham, dudes a beast man and there is something to be said for not missing on your first round pick, but that's kinda how I see things.

 

Does that flex example make sense to anyone else?

[Matt Mueller 146]

^ To take it a step further what Im saying too is that the owner that gets lucky, or smart, and drafts this years Alshon Jeffery, if there is one, can put him at flex and basically make the position a wash.

 

Meanwhile his RB 1 and 2 will likely be significantly better.

[ralphster 274]

I took him @ 7 in a 16 team best ball draft recently. It's easy to justify Graham in the first, but at 4th overall I would not have passed up Forte, Charles, Peterson or McCoy had they been there (meaning I have those RBs ahead of JG). Yes he can start at flex, but Mulls put it well w injury/bye week scenarios. If Stacy and Vereen are your only RBs at current you'll need a waiver wire gem to provide a boost.

[Boilermaker04 11]

What Matt said.

 

I always think of flex as it's own position with all players available.

Graham is a stud, for sure. He has a huge advantage over the nxt TE. But since you have to play a TE, you are really flexing Reed, not graham. The letters next to their spot in the lineup is irrelevant.

 

Is Reed that much better than other options that would be available? It's not Reed against every other TE, it's reed v every other rb, WR, and TE.

Up to you to decide.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

classic example of talking yourself into the stud TE phenomenon.

 

flex is flex because you can start any position there (usually sans QB). You're not gaining any type of advantage over your competition by playing Graham in your flex.

 

for example, your RB1/2 are Stacy and Vereen, your TE is Reed and your flex is Graham. So the guy who drafted Charles sticks him in the flex and has Olsen at TE with Gio bernard and joique Bell as his RB1/RB2. Who wins? You have 0 advantage as is and when bye weeks roll around for your RBs, you're behind the 8-ball.

 

flex means diddly poo. unless you play in a league allowing QB in the flex.

[Vikings4ever 496]

Used strategically, TE at flex isn't a bad play.

 

For example, if you can get Graham in the late first and Thomas in the late third or early fourth, you take good value players, you give yourself a nice flex, and you deprive the other teams of a player in a position that's pretty top heavy.

 

That being said, your flex position shouldn't be the position you look to fill first. The flex is very accommodating, if you have starting RBs (or WR, or TE) that are doing well and you hit on one of your later round sleepers, you suddenly have a starter rather than trade bait or depth.

[Djgb13 2,338]

It seems to me someone is just trying to get too cute with their lineup. That usually backfires and leads to a disadvantage.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Ppr makes a big difference with the 3rd tier rb2 and rb3. In a ppr i believe drafting graham in the first is a solid move when players like vereen can be had in 3rd/4th. Non ppr leagues are more difficult to find a rb in the middle rounds that is startable.

 

Graham 4 overall is too early. Too many bad ass rbs left.

[Kent 228]

In a PPR league where TEs can play the Flex, I just drafted Jimmy Graham with the #4 pick. I personally believe he has a lower bust rate than the RBs that were available at the 4th pick.

 

I managed to grab Zach Stacy and then Shane Vereen later in the draft, with Jordan Reed as my TE. My mindset is that Graham is playing my flex position, and is essentially my RB1 with Stacy my RB2 and Vereen my RB3.

Whoever went 5th was a better pick. I see every season recently a stud emerging that goes UNDRAFTED at the TE position. And I used to be a huge TE drafter early. Those days are over. The NFL teams seem to want to turn TEs into primary weapons due to the freaks coming out of the pipeline who are huge and fast.

 

A bigger concern is d coordinators eventually scheming Graham out this year. Colston is old. The other Wrs are green. Sproles is gone. Lance Moore is gone. The focus on Graham may break a lot of hearts this year on those reaching for him come draft day.

[Djgb13 2,338]

Whoever went 5th was a better pick. I see every season recently a stud emerging that goes UNDRAFTED at the TE position. And I used to be a huge TE drafter early. Those days are over. The NFL teams seem to want to turn TEs into primary weapons due to the freaks coming out of the pipeline who are huge and fast.

 

A bigger concern is d coordinators eventually scheming Graham out this year. Colston is old. The other Wrs are green. Sproles is gone. The focus on Graham may break a lot of hearts this year on those reaching for him come draft day.

 

You have a point there but I still see Graham doing really well just from his talent, body size, and QB. That being said, I dont think he will churn out numbers worthy of a first round pick

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Whoever went 5th was a better pick. I see every season recently a stud emerging that goes UNDRAFTED at the TE position. And I used to be a huge TE drafter early. Those days are over. The NFL teams seem to want to turn TEs into primary weapons due to the freaks coming out of the pipeline who are huge and fast.

 

A bigger concern is d coordinators eventually scheming Graham out this year. Colston is old. The other Wrs are green. Sproles is gone. Lance Moore is gone. The focus on Graham may break a lot of hearts this year on those reaching for him come draft day.

Sorry man the end of this post makes zero sense. A stud is a stud. Every team that plays the lions knows calvin is getting the ball, and yet he is a beast every year. Teams arent new to graham being the guy to stop on the saints. If you double graham, cooks is going to be behind that defense jogging into the end zone. Colston also is a solid wr who will make a defense pay.

 

If it was so easy to shut down a stud wouldnt we be short on them every year in fantasy?

[Kent 228]

Sorry man the end of this post makes zero sense. A stud is a stud. Every team that plays the lions knows calvin is getting the ball, and yet he is a beast every year. Teams arent new to graham being the guy to stop on the saints. If you double graham, cooks is going to be behind that defense jogging into the end zone. Colston also is a solid wr who will make a defense pay.

If it was so easy to shut down a stud wouldnt we be short on them every year in fantasy?

I am not saying he isn't a stud. He is. But in context of taking Graham 4? Calvin doesn't go 4.

 

I think Graham is in an odd rabid state of overhype.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I am not saying he isn't a stud. He is. But in context of taking Graham 4? Calvin doesn't go 4.

 

I think Graham is in an odd rabid state of overhype.

Not really. If he was healthy all year he could have been the highest scoring player at WR or TE. I agree 4 overall is a bit high but the scoring advantage at TE is huge, and you have a damn near guaranteed stud. Last year I drafted Richardson in the first round. Had I drafted a more guaranteed player in the first I would have probably won the league.

 

The biggest issue I had was saying that teams will key on Graham, even though all studs get keyed on and that is why they are studs, because they can overcome it.

[Djgb13 2,338]

Drafting graham is definitely a unique strategy. I would like to see the amount of people who have won their leagues when they draft graham in the 1st or 2nd round. I haven't ever drafted him cause I feel you kind of miss out on the very few rbs who can produce.

[Kent 228]

Not really. If he was healthy all year he could have been the highest scoring player at WR or TE. I agree 4 overall is a bit high but the scoring advantage at TE is huge, and you have a damn near guaranteed stud. Last year I drafted Richardson in the first round. Had I drafted a more guaranteed player in the first I would have probably won the league.

 

The biggest issue I had was saying that teams will key on Graham, even though all studs get keyed on and that is why they are studs, because they can overcome it.

A concern is, the Saints are revamping after losing a bevy of proven pass catchers. I'm not high on Colston in the slightest.

 

I believe the concerns are enough to snuff out Graham overhype for me. Too much for me for first round consideration, much less #4. This is coming from a former Gates early second round selector when he was in his prime. Now I think the TE scoring gap will close.

[Matt Mueller 146]

^ True what about the playoffs though?

 

44 yards against he Eagles

6 yards agains the Saints

 

10 targets-4 catches-No tds

 

Teams def focused to scheme him out...and seemingly succeeded.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Drafting graham is definitely a unique strategy. I would like to see the amount of people who have won their leagues when they draft graham in the 1st or 2nd round. I haven't ever drafted him cause I feel you kind of miss out on the very few rbs who can produce.

I had graham in almost every league last year. I never drafted him in the first, only the second. I only made the playoffs in one league. It wasnt because of graham but a tsunami of injuries, bad luck, and a fes bad decisions made it a really bad year. Drafting graham where i did gave me awesome value. Its just the rest of my team didnt work out so well.

 

You have to draft graham in the second if he falls that far, which is possible in non ppr leagues.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Even in 2012 he was a 'only' a 15.8 point per game PPR start. Very nice but week to Gonzo was 14.6, Witten 14.5, Miller 13.4

 

He wasn't that much better than some of the other top options.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Even in 2012 he was a 'only' a 15.8 point per game PPR start. Very nice but week to Gonzo was 14.6, Witten 14.5, Miller 13.4

 

He wasn't that much better than some of the other top options.

He also spent 2012 with a high ankle sprain for half the season. It was a miracle he was still that good.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Looking over the game logs of Graham and Colston too I wonder if he benefited from Colston seemingly not being healthy at the start of the season. He didn't seem right until about halfway through.

 

Graham started out with a bang with 4 100 yards games in his first 5. He had catch totals of 10, 10 and 9 the first 8 weeks.

 

Didn't go over 6 catches after week 8.

 

If you compare week 8 on, this is Colston vs Graham:

 

Graham- 37 catches-469-6

 

Colston- 48-601- 4

 

Colston outscored Graham 132-119 over that stretch and continued that in the playoffs torching Seattle for 11-144-1 while Graham went 1-8.

 

Someone please check these numbers b/c they were certainly not what I was expecting. Sorry OP someone's gonna start Colston at flex and there's goes your advantage.

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/9838/marques-colston

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/13232/jimmy-graham

[Connorsdad 38]

If the league size is 10 or less teams I think you could get away with drafting JG in the first round but never at 4th overall. If the league size is bigger like 12 or 14 teams no way is it a good move to take him in the 1st round. JMO !

[tanatastic 2,061]

Flexing a TE is textbook getting too cute. It's for the guys who draft kickers early "because they score high" and believe in the cancel out theory, aka noobs. Those 2 good TE you spent high picks on means fewer valuable rbs and wrs for the bye weeks. I love graham and orange Julius but to me, flex may as well say RB cuz I rarely start anything but an rb at flex. But to do that I need to draft at least 3 good ones and pray they at least see some quality touches. As far as TE value goes, I prefer Julius to graham but not by much since OJ will cost a lot this year as well and graham is a fine 2nd rnd pick. Going Rb, TE, Wr, Qb can easily net a stud at all 4 positions.