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Mustard Lover

Lamar Miller Usage Quick Hits

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Came across this blog post from this morning. Dave Hyde's a local Miami reporter and Dolphins beat writer for the Sun Sentinel. He sites some interesting usage stats for Lamar Miller, let me know what you guys think.

 

KILLED THE LINK AND COPIED AND PASTED

 

* When the Dolphins had a three-receiver formation, Miller averaged a staggering 6.1 yards a carry, via Football Outsiders. The three-receivers formation demands a nickle defense package, which means one less linebacker and gives space to run. Getting Miller in space is the goal considering his speed. Expect to see that formation more this year.

 

* This is what is meant by a player being used properly: Miller ran 81 percent of his snaps out of the shot gun last year rather than 41 percent in 2013. He's clearly comfortable running out of the shotgun and Bill Lazor saw that in his first season. Again, expect a heavy dose of Miller running from the shotgun.

 

* Miller (and the offensive line) isn't as good as running short-yardage as they've been credited this off-season. Miller ran 17 times on third or fourth down and "short" according to proreference.com, which it defines as three yards or less for a first down. He got 12 first downs out of them. That's pretty good. Cut it to third-or-fourth and short and two yards, and Miller was 11-for-14. Very good, right?

 

The problem is, that stat doesn't factor in the number of times Lazor wasn't comfortable with running Miller in short-yardage situation. You can see that level by seeing Tannehill threw 38 times - more than double Miller ran - on third-or-fourth and short, according to proreference.com. Twenty-four of those went for first downs. Tannehill ran another three times for a first down in those situations.

FootballOutsiders stats show teams are statistically more effective running the football than passing it on short-yardage situations. Yet the Dolphins went against that for a reason - namely, they don't have an offense built for short-yardage running. This a concern for the Dolphins again as they don't have an offensive line or a runner suited to that.

Edited by Mustard Lover

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Because I'm high on Miller this year, I registered at the site to be able to access the article. Here it is:

 

Lamar Miller became a great asset for the Dolphins, as we saw last year. Football Outsiders ranked his production as the fourth best for a running back behind DeMarco Murray, Marshawn Lynch and Jamaal Charles. But how to best use him? And what can he improve on? Here are three telling stats:

 

* When the Dolphins had a three-receiver formation, Miller averaged a staggering 6.1 yards a carry, via Football Outsiders. The three-receivers formation demands a nickle defense package, which means one less linebacker and gives space to run. Getting Miller in space is the goal considering his speed. Expect to see that formation more this year.

 

* This is what is meant by a player being used properly: Miller ran 81 percent of his snaps out of the shot gun last year rather than 41 percent in 2013. He's clearly comfortable running out of the shotgun and Bill Lazor saw that in his first season. Again, expect a heavy dose of Miller running from the shotgun.

 

* Miller (and the offensive line) isn't as good as running short-yardage as they've been credited this off-season. Miller ran 17 times on third or fourth down and "short" according to proreference.com, which it defines as three yards or less for a first down. He got 12 first downs out of them. That's pretty good. Cut it to third-or-fourth and short and two yards, and Miller was 11-for-14. Very good, right?

 

The problem is, that stat doesn't factor in the number of times Lazor wasn't comfortable with running Miller in short-yardage situation. You can see that level by seeing Tannehill threw 38 times - more than double Miller ran - on third-or-fourth and short, according to proreference.com. Twenty-four of those went for first downs. Tannehill ran another three times for a first down in those situations.

 

FootballOutsiders stats show teams are statistically more effective running the football than passing it on short-yardage situations. Yet the Dolphins went against that for a reason - namely, they don't have an offense built for short-yardage running. This a concern for the Dolphins again as they don't have an offensive line or a runner suited to that.

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Branden AL

 

Because I'm high on Miller this year, I registered at the site to be able to access the article. Here it is:

Lamar Miller became a great asset for the Dolphins, as we saw last year. Football Outsiders ranked his production as the fourth best for a running back behind DeMarco Murray, Marshawn Lynch and Jamaal Charles. But how to best use him? And what can he improve on? Here are three telling stats:

* When the Dolphins had a three-receiver formation, Miller averaged a staggering 6.1 yards a carry, via Football Outsiders. The three-receivers formation demands a nickle defense package, which means one less linebacker and gives space to run. Getting Miller in space is the goal considering his speed. Expect to see that formation more this year.

* This is what is meant by a player being used properly: Miller ran 81 percent of his snaps out of the shot gun last year rather than 41 percent in 2013. He's clearly comfortable running out of the shotgun and Bill Lazor saw that in his first season. Again, expect a heavy dose of Miller running from the shotgun.

* Miller (and the offensive line) isn't as good as running short-yardage as they've been credited this off-season. Miller ran 17 times on third or fourth down and "short" according to proreference.com, which it defines as three yards or less for a first down. He got 12 first downs out of them. That's pretty good. Cut it to third-or-fourth and short and two yards, and Miller was 11-for-14. Very good, right?

The problem is, that stat doesn't factor in the number of times Lazor wasn't comfortable with running Miller in short-yardage situation. You can see that level by seeing Tannehill threw 38 times - more than double Miller ran - on third-or-fourth and short, according to proreference.com. Twenty-four of those went for first downs. Tannehill ran another three times for a first down in those situations.

FootballOutsiders stats show teams are statistically more effective running the football than passing it on short-yardage situations. Yet the Dolphins went against that for a reason - namely, they don't have an offense built for short-yardage running. This a concern for the Dolphins again as they don't have an offensive line or a runner suited to that.

Branden Albert going through first full practice since last years injury, all drills and team sessions.

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Having him the last two years I noticed a trend with him, and I have nothing to back this up. It seems that they reduce his carries a lot in the second half of games. Maybe he's a fumbler when he gets tired, I don't know. It seemed he would have 50-60 yards in the first half and then barely get the ball later in the game. I can't look anything up right now, but that's how I remember it.

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Having him the last two years I noticed a trend with him, and I have nothing to back this up. It seems that they reduce his carries a lot in the second half of games. Maybe he's a fumbler when he gets tired, I don't know. It seemed he would have 50-60 yards in the first half and then barely get the ball later in the game. I can't look anything up right now, but that's how I remember it.

Yep, I played him under in a lot of props, and thought I was dead many time, only to see him get 5 carries in the 2nd half.

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Hes always been a no draft for me despite his "top 10" stats end of year. They seem to always take him out of the redzone, not give him late carries and generally just frustrate the heck out of owners. Hes a big mystery to me this year. I want to draft him but if its just the same runaround and terrible coaching I will beat my head against the wall for going against my gut. I get a bonus if my rb gets 20 carries in my league so thats a worry as well since hes had 20 something like 1 time ever.

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He went in the back end of the 2nd in my draft. I think people view him as a cheaper top 10 back. I've never been overly impressed with him.

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I've been watching him in person or on the tube for the past 6+ years and you'd think I'd be all about him but I feel about the same as you guys do. He doesn't inspire passion.

 

Last year they brought in Moreno and he took the starting job from him not so much because of a huge skill gap but Moreno gave the offense a toughness and Identity that Miller couldn't. I don't see him ever really turning into that guy, but I do know he's fast, really fast and he can catch.

 

If he's anything close to the bell-cow back they want him to be, you'll be happy to own him. I don't know the circumstances of the draft mentioned above, but who are you taking before him: Justin Forsett? Alfred Morris? Mark Ingram? Frank Gore? Latavius Murry?

 

He's played in all 16 games the past 2 seasons and was only out 3 games his rookie year that he started with a shoulder injury. His rushes and receptions have gone up every year. He averages close to 5 yards per carry and 7 yards per reception and that's with Sherman's terrible offense for his first two years and a suspect O-line that while better last year it still suffered from losing its premiere blocker after week 9.

 

He's not sexy because he didn't blow up his rookie year, but aren't we trying to find top 10 RB's outside of the 1st round?

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Like Miller as a number two rb .

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Love him as a RB2.....but Damien Williams worries me more that the rookie Vajayjay.

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He was top 12 last year HTH? I had him in one league. He was pretty consistent getting 13-17 points or what ever he got. Pretty damn good for a 3rd round RB

What kind of scoring system do you have? Even in a ppr he wasn't getting 15-17 consistently. In 9 of 15 weeks he had no TD's and he rushed for over 100 twice. You can do a lot better in the 3rd round.

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What kind of scoring system do you have? Even in a ppr he wasn't getting 15-17 consistently. In 9 of 15 weeks he had no TD's and he rushed for over 100 twice. You can do a lot better in the 3rd round.

 

He finished 9th among RBs in my league (ppr) last year. :dunno:

 

5.1 yards per carry is pretty damn impressive behind the terrible O-line Miami had last year.

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He finished 9th among RBs in my league (ppr) last year. :dunno:

 

5.1 yards per carry is pretty damn impressive behind the terrible O-line Miami had last year.

But he only had 10-12 touches. Do you see my point?

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But he only had 10-12 touches. Do you see my point?

 

Yep. Definitely not a monster-game player by any means last year, but he did get enough steady work to finish 9th overall. Ya have to admit, for a no-hyped RB on a crap team, the fact that he finished 9th is impressive (not to mention 5.1 ypc).

 

So the real question is how far below last year's stats is he likely to fall? Even I'll admit there's no way in hell he can repeat 5.1 ypc. But considering his situation in Miami (young, has starting job, improving team), seems like a lock for another 1,000 yds. Hell, the REAL reason he's not a 1st round pick now is because his receptions suck. I expect more low receptions, but I'd bet the farm he'll finish with more than 38 like last season. Can't get any lower.

 

Bottom line, he's currently ranked 12th among RBs. Odds he finishes worse than 12th are slim. Thus, a value pick.

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Yep. Definitely not a monster-game player by any means last year, but he did get enough steady work to finish 9th overall. Ya have to admit, for a no-hyped RB on a crap team, the fact that he finished 9th is impressive (not to mention 5.1 ypc).

 

So the real question is how far below last year's stats is he likely to fall? Even I'll admit there's no way in hell he can repeat 5.1 ypc. But considering his situation in Miami (young, has starting job, improving team), seems like a lock for another 1,000 yds. Hell, the REAL reason he's not a 1st round pick now is because his receptions suck. I expect more low receptions, but I'd bet the farm he'll finish with more than 38 like last season. Can't get any lower.

 

Bottom line, he's currently ranked 12th among RBs. Odds he finishes worse than 12th are slim. Thus, a value pick.

You have your stats to back it up, I'll give you that. But they did draft a RB in the third round, which is high for a RB these days. I just recommend that you don't get too excited when he has 50 yards at the half. Chances are he's getting one or two series the rest of the way.

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they did draft a RB in the third round, which is high for a RB these days.

 

:nono:

 

Miami drafted RB Jay Ajayi in the 5th round - the only RB they drafted this year. Word is he hasn't exactly shined in training camp. :ninja:

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:nono:

 

Miami drafted RB Jay Ajayi Vajayjay the 5th round - the only RB they drafted this year. Word is he hasn't exactly shined in training camp. :ninja:

 

Fixed

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What kind of scoring system do you have? Even in a ppr he wasn't getting 15-17 consistently. In 9 of 15 weeks he had no TD's and he rushed for over 100 twice. You can do a lot better in the 3rd round.

 

It was a normal PPR system. 14.4 points per game which was #10 overall for RB's. He's looking to me like he will go up this year.

bash him all you want.

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Let me get this straight. We have a guy who finished in the top 10 or right there on limited touches behind a bad offensive line. So, now guys are saying he will be replaced or lose touches to someone else. Why would he? He is healthy, fresh, as quick as ever. I think they'll use him more rather than less. If he stays healthy he is a strong RB2 at least and possibly an RB1.

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Let me get this straight. We have a guy who finished in the top 10 or right there on limited touches behind a bad offensive line. So, now guys are saying he will be replaced or lose touches to someone else. Why would he? He is healthy, fresh, as quick as ever. I think they'll use him more rather than less. If he stays healthy he is a strong RB2 at least and possibly an RB1.

 

 

I am a Dolphan fan I will admit it. Regardless I don't reach for Dolphins in my drafts.

 

The Fins look like they have improved on offense. They are working on turning around that offensive line.

 

They have drafted two good looking young WR's, traded for K.Stills and signed J.Cammeron as a TE.

 

Tannehill has been more accurate than ever this training camp on his deep passes. He was one of the most accurate QB's the second half of last season.

 

It's all adding up for Miller to have a great season.

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So far 1 play for Williams and Miller and Landry have been the features for the offense. Miller in on all plays in RedZone and got a carry and a pass within the 10 Yard line.

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Let me get this straight. We have a guy who finished in the top 10 or right there on limited touches behind a bad offensive line. So, now guys are saying he will be replaced or lose touches to someone else. Why would he? He is healthy, fresh, as quick as ever. I think they'll use him more rather than less. If he stays healthy he is a strong RB2 at least and possibly an RB1.

 

Don't forget after 50 yards at half he will only get 2-3 touches in the 2nd half.

 

That one was my favorite.

Im bullish on this offense this year with Miller and Tannehill as guys to target if you go WR heavy early and wait on a QB.

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You guys are knit picking

 

Draft and enjoy production

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Thoughts after week 1?

Production was underwhelming for a purported RB1.

 

I didn't see the game. Anyone who did care to comment? How about Dolphins owners? Is this what we can expect going forward?

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Thoughts after week 1?

I was cursing out the OC watching redzone... twice I saw 1st & G inside the 5 and they would spread out in shotgun and have Miller max protect. They twice either got sacked or lost yardage that put them in bad passing situations. Just taking a +EV situation and throwing up all over it. That game shouldn't have been close.

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I was cursing out the OC watching redzone... twice I saw 1st & G inside the 5 and they would spread out in shotgun and have Miller max protect. They twice either got sacked or lost yardage that put them in bad passing situations. Just taking a +EV situation and throwing up all over it. That game shouldn't have been close.

 

I had Miller last year and it was the same way. They rarely use the guy. I think he's incredibly talented but they don't seem to use him much at all.

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I had Miller last year and it was the same way. They rarely use the guy. I think he's incredibly talented but they don't seem to use him much at all.

yeah, I owned him last year, and I felt that he was getting too much hype because of two games he had played at the end of the year.

 

most games he was getting me 40-80 yards and sometimes he would get a TD (most were vultured by others)

 

he is usually good for 2-3 catches for about 20 yards.

 

for me, that's RB2 territory. He was being drafted as a RB1.

 

I know its early in the season, and he can still turn it around. I had my hopes he'd get more touches, but I just couldnt make myself pay the price of a RB1 for a guy who gave me RB2 production for most of last year.

 

yes, there were one or two games where he performed like a RB1, but that was the exception and not the rule.

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