Kopy 489 Posted June 13, 2017 If you own him, what would you be comfortable getting for him? If you would even sell. And on the flip side. If you're looking to get him, how big are you going? Seems like his value took a big hit for a year or 2. And after that, Eli could be done. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,457 Posted June 13, 2017 He scored eight tds last season was his upside. But with Marshall taking away his job and he's will indeed be a wr3 I don't think he has any great value. Between Beckham and Marshall I don't see a lot of targets left. Plus he only avg 10 yards per rec last season, after those eight tds he scored I don't think he was worth much. Pretty much was a Wr4 last season he was 36 in ff points in ppr I don't see that going up. I don't see much value expect for a hold in case of an injury. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
giraldi02 470 Posted June 13, 2017 Victor Cruz had 72 targets last season Rashad Jennings had 42 targets last season. Will Tye had 70 targets last season. Two of those guys are gone and the other's role (in the passing game) is likely massively diminished this upcoming season. The Giants have been in the top-10 in the NFL in passing attempts the last three seasons. Let's also remember that tight ends don't come into the NFL guns a blazing. Since 1980, only six tight ends have caught 50+ passes his rookie season. Only 23 have even caught 40 passes their rookie season. Engram isn't going to factor in much this year. There's plenty of targets available to accommodate Marshall into the offense and still maintain Shepard's production as well. Shepard was arguably (if there's really any argument) the second best route running prospect entering the draft last year behind Michael Thomas. The Giants ran 92% of their offense using 11 personnel (1 RB, 1TE, and 3WR). There's been blurbs saying that the team is going to use 2TE sets more. Well, considering that they ran 3WR sets by 16% more than the NEXT closest team, I think it's safe to say that Shepard isn't going to really lose playing time. Long story short, Shepard is entering year 2. His perceived value is at it's lowest point. He's an easy buy at his price point. If I could give up a pick like 2.02 for him, I'd do it all day every day. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,457 Posted June 13, 2017 Yea but don't forget that Verreen should be back this season and he was on avg for 64 targets. Unless you see Shepherd scoring eight tds again this season I think Shepherd has a value of a wr4. Marshall will receive a lot of his targets from last season. Don't over pay for him, beware. Tye or Engram whom ever is playing te will still be getting about the same number of targets for that postion. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lesjroza 70 Posted June 13, 2017 Victor Cruz had 72 targets last season Rashad Jennings had 42 targets last season. Will Tye had 70 targets last season. Two of those guys are gone and the other's role (in the passing game) is likely massively diminished this upcoming season. The Giants have been in the top-10 in the NFL in passing attempts the last three seasons. Let's also remember that tight ends don't come into the NFL guns a blazing. Since 1980, only six tight ends have caught 50+ passes his rookie season. Only 23 have even caught 40 passes their rookie season. Engram isn't going to factor in much this year. There's plenty of targets available to accommodate Marshall into the offense and still maintain Shepard's production as well. Shepard was arguably (if there's really any argument) the second best route running prospect entering the draft last year behind Michael Thomas. The Giants ran 92% of their offense using 11 personnel (1 RB, 1TE, and 3WR). There's been blurbs saying that the team is going to use 2TE sets more. Well, considering that they ran 3WR sets by 16% more than the NEXT closest team, I think it's safe to say that Shepard isn't going to really lose playing time. Long story short, Shepard is entering year 2. His perceived value is at it's lowest point. He's an easy buy at his price point. If I could give up a pick like 2.02 for him, I'd do it all day every day. This is a nicely written view of the bullish case for Shepard Giraldi. I'll play Devil's advocate though in reality I'm probably more somewhere in the middle. The bearish case Sterling Shepard is only a slightly above average athlete. To my recollection you would find most post combine/ pre NFL draft ranks with him as an end of the 1st top of the 2nd round rookie draft. During the NFL draft process however S.S. was boosted similarly to the way McCaffrey was this year, in consideration of his NFL bloodlines and solid/strong college production. Post NFL draft that rise continued in rookie drafts as he ended up in what was considered a terrific spot for FF production coming in as a defacto #2 to ODB and a theoretically good fit for the offense. The thesis that S.S would be the new Cobb in the McAdoo offense made the rounds and his rookie draft ADP kept rising. The Cobb comparison had flaws, however. SS. is not the same athlete, and he didn't have Arod throwing to him. Guys with S.S. athletic profile can be productive with volume, but the "average athlete/great route runners" don't carry the same weight as when they have ultra accurate QBs throwing the ball to them. At 5'10 with 30 3/4 inch arms SS presents a small catch radius. He is also not a contested catch guy, the ball needs to be accurate and on time in order to take advantage of his skill set.........I don't think the Giants situation was what it appeared to some to begin with IMO because of Eli. Not because Eli is bad necessarily, but because he has the wrong skills to mesh with what S.S. does well. I would personally go as far as to say the lack of other targets in NY actually allowed S.S. to have a far better year 1 than he probably should have had and in terms of production he is as likely to decline from here as to rise. BMarsh as well as Engram both present the bigger catch radius more suited to Eli IMO. From a dynasty perspective the 1st round choice spent on Engram in particular has to give pause if you thought Shepard was locked into the long term future feature receiver at the slot position in NY. Its hard to imagine the Giants truly see Engram as an in line TE (they'd be pretty much alone if that was the case) which means he was drafted as a pass catcher, likely lining up most often in the slot whether now or for the future. Its nice to have multiple different weapons to find mismatches etc, but remember, this was a 1st round pick which connotes more than a luxury. A big chunk of SS stats were as a result of 8 TDS from which he will almost certainly regress with the new pass catchers on board due to their more red zone suited skill set combined with S.S. lacking big play athleticism. Bottom line on trade value, if a league drafted late spring or into the summer, S.S may have been going as high as top 5 in which case most owners aren't going to be willing to trade him for his current "startup" value given he didn't flop statistically yr 1 so I doubt many transactions are happening. I think his future dynasty value is very much dependent on the QB of the future in NY. If its highly accurate West Coast type QB, I could see SS getting the volume he needs to put up successful FF stats in the future, but to me even at his current startup price (which you likely can't get a trade done at), there are tons of more interesting risk/reward targets. I don't own him anywhere and I am not seeking him out as a trade target at all though I often try to buy "fallen angels" at a discount when possible. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
polecatt 401 Posted June 13, 2017 I traded him for Demaryius Thomas in a dynasty league, I threw in Jeremy Hill and got a 2nd round draft pick I don't see him as being any better than last year and I don't know how much better he will get any time soon. He has potential but he's still in the show me stage. He's a slot WR and they haven't fared too well with Eli at QB outside of a big season from Victor Cruz. He's good depth but not a starter IMO. The Giants signed Brandon Marshall and drafted receiving TE early that they clearly expect to be a big part of the offense. Of course they all play 2nd fiddle to OBJ. Shepherd may be the one left out. I would say if you can get anything of decent value for him go for it. Certainly a starter. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
weepaws 2,457 Posted June 13, 2017 Wow polecatt great trade. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
polecatt 401 Posted June 13, 2017 Thanks I was shocked it was accepted, I was high balling Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
giraldi02 470 Posted June 13, 2017 People realize that Brandon Marshall is pretty much signed to a one year deal right? I might not buy Shepard in re-draft as much, but in dynasty or keepers we are talking about a guy that was drafted 40th overall that scored 8 touchdowns and caught 65 passes. This is a situation where people are getting trapped in recency bias by the way elite stars have performed during their rookie seasons. With the exception of Corey Davis and...maybe...John Ross, there's no rookie WR this year I'd want on a keeper team over Shepard. I get that touchdowns are fickle. I'm one of the loudest people on that front. Having said that, four of his eight touchdowns came from passes inside the 10 yard line. I tend to discredit longer touchdowns with much more ease as being unsustainable. Needless to say, Shepard is a nice discussion as a fantasy player for all formats. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
