Doug's Projections - AFC/NFC North

[Mike FF Today 607]

Last week Doug tackled the East.

• Game by Game Projections - North

Some quick observations...

- No red on the schedule for Randall Cobb.

- Lot's of green for Cutler and the Bears receivers.

- Lot's of green for TE Dennis Pitta.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Cutler projected for 16. That would make my best ball team happy.

[Matt Mueller 146]

What's the projection on Patterson? I was a little confused if those extra tds were rushing or return tds.

[The Football Guru 211]

Cutler projected for 16. That would make my best ball team happy.

It would make my dynasty team happy as well. I know his injuries haven't always been due to a lack of size, but I think given his increased muscle and the team's emphasis on keeping him upright will help him get it done this year.

 

What's the projection on Patterson? I was a little confused if those extra tds were rushing or return tds.

I don't know how that happened, but I'll let Mike know ASAP. Just like with Cobb, the first TD line is rushing and the second is receiving. I don't try to predict kick/punt return TDs.

[tanatastic 2,061]

Only 1000yds for Lacy? 1k is a terrible for an rb. They need 1200 minimum to be considered viable to me and thats still kind of low.

[DrG 94]

Doug, as always, thank you. Your projections and your insights are an invaluable tool in helping me determine my targets (including those few I may reach a little for) and DNDS. While a general believer in the 'Turner Effect' I wonder if there will be a mid-season QB transition in Minnesota?

 

Trestman's a guy that's been so many places, do his historical second season stats match up with his first?

 

He was in San Francisco for a brief period of time and it was not at all a good fit. Though with last year and all the talent in Chicago it is hard to imagine that team not putting up some n umbers.

 

As an aside, I know his numbers may come down a bit, but to me, Aaron Rodgers is easily the best player in the NFL.

[The Football Guru 211]

Only 1000yds for Lacy? 1k is a terrible for an rb. They need 1200 minimum to be considered viable to me and thats still kind of low.

I really try to focus more on the average on these projections than anything in terms of determining my "success". I have him injured two games and missing part of a third (and, of course, Week 17 is not included). Still, I have him over 1,000 yards and with 11 TDs in about 12 1/2 games. Hypothetically, if I was to project his 2 1/2 missed games now, I'd add about 175 more rushing yards, two TDs and probably seven catches for 70 yards.

 

As for the overall projection, look at his first three weeks for starters...it doesn't get much tougher than SEA, NYJ and DET. CAR is stout and I expect NE and TB to be very good at stopping the run as well. Three of his four 100-yard games came against the wretched run defense of the Bears, Vikings and Cowboys last season. Also, let's remember that while 75 plays/game is a nice thing to shoot for and the supporting cast is great, the Green Bay offensive line isn't exactly a group of maulers.

[The Football Guru 211]

Doug, as always, thank you. Your projections and your insights are an invaluable tool in helping me determine my targets (including those few I may reach a little for) and DNDS. While a general believer in the 'Turner Effect' I wonder if there will be a mid-season QB transition in Minnesota?

 

Trestman's a guy that's been so many places, do his historical second season stats match up with his first?

 

He was in San Francisco for a brief period of time and it was not at all a good fit. Though with last year and all the talent in Chicago it is hard to imagine that team not putting up some n umbers.

 

As an aside, I know his numbers may come down a bit, but to me, Aaron Rodgers is easily the best player in the NFL.

I'm glad to be of service.

 

Regarding Cassel/Bridgewater, I acknowledge Cassel's skill set is more of a fit in a Turner offense, his decision-making has been less than ideal throughout his career. Perhaps with AP and Turner, Cassel can go turn back the clock to 2010. However, I think it will be that decision-making against a difficult early schedule that will put him squarely on the hot seat around the time I have him getting benched.

 

I know Trestman is a guy who has changed his demeanor in terms of how he approaches his players. Early in his career, apparently he was not much of a people person as far as I can tell. I have not researched how his offenses have done in the second year under his leadership, but it is worth looking into.

 

As for Rodgers, you're not going to get any argument from me. He makes so many difficult plays look very easy.