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Kopy

2018 offseason fantasy offer/trade thread

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I think 1.05 is a little to high for either guy. Could you get a pick back in return also? I love both guys, so it's not the players. Just more of the high first, in a 20 team, so really deep league.

Or if not a pick in return, maybe a later round pick swap, where you would move up some spots?

I think the other owner has some draft capital in the 2nd too :ninja:

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Got offered Nelson Agholor and the 1.08 for Brandin Cooks. On the fence

Agholor quieted a lot of critics with his breakout this year. Had some great ppr games.

 

Cooks is hard to figure, and didn't live up to his lofty draft slot this year.

 

Who would you be targeting at 1.08?

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Agholor quieted a lot of critics with his breakout this year. Had some great ppr games.

 

Cooks is hard to figure, and didn't live up to his lofty draft slot this year.

 

Who would you be targeting at 1.08?

Thats...a good question haha. I honestly have not looked much into this class. I know WRs are all the same and RBs are deep. Waldman and the RSP gonna be clutch this year.

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I got a potential offer that does seem interesting.

12 team dynasty. PPR scoring. Start 1qb, 2rb, 3wr, 1te, 1flex.

Give: David Johnson

Get: Joe Mixon and 1.1

 

 

 

 

The big wildcard IMO is where Barkley ends up and that makes it to tough for me personally to value short term at this point but I would take the deal on a roster that isn't quite ready for prime time, though I haven't personally had one of those for awhile.

 

I think Barkley is an elite, complete RB and the math is too overwhelming if that viewpoint is correct.

 

Barkley is 20 yrs old, DJ 26, its not unrealistic to consider there is literally twice the career remaining or twice the dynasty value IF all things turn out to be equal, literally twice the value. Toss in Mixon and the math gives a lot of room for being slightly wrong on the eval as well.

 

I personally would trade Mixon because he isn't my cup of tea but almost guaranteed there is somebody looking to buy him low-ish in your league and I suspect you could get a strong piece for him, if not now, later. Cincy will make that OL a priority so I can see him being a trendy summer guy.

 

Someone is going to misunderstand, I'm not saying make the deal because of the ages, the eval is crucial............ if you don't believe in Barkley it's a no go.

If you do believe, the overall value offred is too strong not to take it on a roster where one is trying to get to a place of overwhelming force in the next few years.

 

If you have a roster that is already realistically top 3 for '18 in the league then I think you have to wait and hope the deal is still available when we have more info.

 

Where does Barkley land?

Who ends up coaching the Cards, who is the O.C., and who is the QB?

There are more questions on DJ's '18 projections than I see being given credit here in addition to Barkley unknowns.

Arians system-usage was ideal for pass catching RBs going back pre-DJ. A little less PPR usage and a little less scoring by the offense, a little less accurate QB would not be shocking.

 

I know I'm going to get slammed, its hard to trade a known- top commodity (though as I say there are questions regarding DJ's projection as well).

 

All that said if you can get even more because everybody thinks its a slam dunk for the DJ side, even better. I'm not telling you Kopy or anybody else to make that deal, just saying I would. That's the fun, we all get to run our own teams.

 

 

FWIW, I would now be willing to take that DJ/ 1.01 Mixon deal on every type of roster.

I said previously I think the math is heavily in favor of the 1.01 (Barkley)-Mixon side......... so it was already a shoe in for me on building rosters.

 

I was hesitant to trade DJ on rosters that were top contenders for '18 because he is a premium proven piece that requires no development wait time and will provide '18 differential in the starting lineup.

 

However, if I had made a list of outcomes that I'd prefer to the questions in the Az situation for DJ over the next few years......... what seems to be happening is far from the top of my list. That's not to say DJ is going to fall off the face of the earth, its just his situation at the margins is trending lower IMO. Defensive minded head coach hire now looking at Bevell or McCoy as OC. No projected QB, still not even one on the roster (Keenum may have come with Shurmur).

The emphasis going forward, including talent acquisition will be on the D to the extent the HC has influence, because you can always fire your OC in the first couple of years if the O is bad but you are on the hot seat already if the D is poor. Bevell or McCoy as OC = somewhere meh to well below IMO.

 

Additionally, the Haley hire in Clev shored up one of the Barkley possible/likely landing spots I had concern about..............now you have Leveon Bell's OC sitting along with a solid OL on paper and nowhere to go but up for the rest of the O. Clev has a solid talent evaluating GM in Dorsey, a ton of draft capital, AND the second most cap space..........$110 million.

 

Furthermore, I don't think that type of offer will be available most leagues that much longer. One of the tricky parts if you are looking to do this kind of deal is timing so that one is able to get the max return and thus the biggest margin for error. My sense is that the market value for Barkley is probably only is rising from here barring training injury with multiple nice landing spots while AZ situation is trending lower. I do like Barkley of course but its hard to get a grasp on how others project RBs this early in the process since the position is so devalued. This article on NFL.com by Daniel Jeremiah flashes to me the hype train may soon be in full force as he is listed as not only the number 1 RB......... but the number 1 OVERALL prospect. The window is closing for those who value him highly in dynasty.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000909727/article/daniel-jeremiahs-top-50-prospects-for-2018-nfl-draft

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FWIW, I would now be willing to take that DJ/ 1.01 Mixon deal on every type of roster.

I said previously I think the math is heavily in favor of the 1.01 (Barkley)-Mixon side......... so it was already a shoe in for me on building rosters.

 

I was hesitant to trade DJ on rosters that were top contenders for '18 because he is a premium proven piece that requires no development wait time and will provide '18 differential in the starting lineup.

 

However, if I had made a list of outcomes that I'd prefer to the questions in the Az situation for DJ over the next few years......... what seems to be happening is far from the top of my list. That's not to say DJ is going to fall off the face of the earth, its just his situation at the margins is trending lower IMO. Defensive minded head coach hire now looking at Bevell or McCoy as OC. No projected QB, still not even one on the roster (Keenum may have come with Shurmur).

The emphasis going forward, including talent acquisition will be on the D to the extent the HC has influence, because you can always fire your OC in the first couple of years if the O is bad but you are on the hot seat already if the D is poor. Bevell or McCoy as OC = somewhere meh to well below IMO.

 

Additionally, the Haley hire in Clev shored up one of the Barkley possible/likely landing spots I had concern about..............now you have Leveon Bell's OC sitting along with a solid OL on paper and nowhere to go but up for the rest of the O. Clev has a solid talent evaluating GM in Dorsey, a ton of draft capital, AND the second most cap space..........$110 million.

 

Furthermore, I don't think that type of offer will be available most leagues that much longer. One of the tricky parts if you are looking to do this kind of deal is timing so that one is able to get the max return and thus the biggest margin for error. My sense is that the market value for Barkley is probably only is rising from here barring training injury with multiple nice landing spots while AZ situation is trending lower. I do like Barkley of course but its hard to get a grasp on how others project RBs this early in the process since the position is so devalued. This article on NFL.com by Daniel Jeremiah flashes to me the hype train may soon be in full force as he is listed as not only the number 1 RB......... but the number 1 OVERALL prospect. The window is closing for those who value him highly in dynasty.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000909727/article/daniel-jeremiahs-top-50-prospects-for-2018-nfl-draft

I'll take David Johnson over the rookies coming in. He has only 1.5 years of full time work on the field in the pros and has already proven how great he is. We know he can pass block and catch at the pro level without question.

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I'll take David Johnson over the rookies coming in. He has only 1.5 years of full time work on the field in the pros and has already proven how great he is. We know he can pass block and catch at the pro level without question.

 

In this case its Saquan Barkley plus Joe Mixon (or for me the value represented by Mixon because I'd deal him)....... and its for the rest of their respective careers not just one rookie year of development for Barkley.

 

Still easy for you?

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Got offered Nelson Agholor and the 1.08 for Brandin Cooks. On the fence

Dynasty no brainer. You take that all day long. What we saw was as good as it gets with Cooks and all he could do is eak out a slightly better season that Agholor who was a 2B receiver. the difference was yardage. Smith won't be there much longer. You basically get the same stats AND the 8th pick.

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Agholor quieted a lot of critics with his breakout this year. Had some great ppr games.

 

Cooks is hard to figure, and didn't live up to his lofty draft slot this year.

 

Who would you be targeting at 1.08?

Too early to say since they haven't been drafted. I could say Courtland Sutton of he there and then BALT drafts him and his value plummets.

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In this case its Saquan Barkley plus Joe Mixon (or for me the value represented by Mixon because I'd deal him)....... and its for the rest of their respective careers not just one rookie year of development for Barkley.

 

Still easy for you?

Yeah. Mixon has shown little and is on the Bengals. Barkley has done nothing yet in the pros. You don't even know where he ends up which is huge. If you don't trade Johnson away, the worst case scenario is you have David Johnson. Not to mention the guy will never get arrested for beating his wife or girlfriend.

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Yeah. Mixon has shown little and is on the Bengals. Barkley has done nothing yet in the pros. You don't even know where he ends up which is huge. If you don't trade Johnson away, the worst case scenario is you have David Johnson. Not to mention the guy will never get arrested for beating his wife or girlfriend.

 

 

Cool beans, I was just curious if it mattered to you there was another piece. I think most all redraft focused players feel the need for guys to prove it before assigning values and I think maybe half-ish dynasty guys feel the same way, there are lots of styles that win. If somebody is going to do it they have to have a great deal of confidence in their overall risk-reward assessment. I think for the percentage of guys who are willing to make that type of deal, the initial location is of much less importance than it is to you though.

 

I personally fall in between to some extent, because most all my rosters are competitive every year and its hard to hold a few Todd Gurleys on roster slots through a moribund period like he was with the Rams for a couple of years unless they spend some time on taxi, but if a player is talented most guys who make decisions based on the long term don't get to caught up in the short term.

 

When it comes to the situation where Barkley ends up though I'm not sure DJs will be any better at this point, its at least as unknown right now ..............and as I mentioned that's part of what has sealed it for me now even for competitive rosters.`

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Cool beans, I was just curious if it mattered to you there was another piece. I think most all redraft focused players feel the need for guys to prove it before assigning values and I think maybe half-ish dynasty guys feel the same way, there are lots of styles that win. If somebody is going to do it they have to have a great deal of confidence in their overall risk-reward assessment. I think for the percentage of guys who are willing to make that type of deal, the initial location is of much less importance than it is to you though.

 

I personally fall in between to some extent, because most all my rosters are competitive every year and its hard to hold a few Todd Gurleys on roster slots through a moribund period like he was with the Rams for a couple of years unless they spend some time on taxi, but if a player is talented most guys who make decisions based on the long term don't get to caught up in the short term.

 

When it comes to the situation where Barkley ends up though I'm not sure DJs will be any better at this point, its at least as unknown right now ..............and as I mentioned that's part of what has sealed it for me now even for competitive rosters.`

I see why you are in the middle on this. It makes sense depending on where you are with your team. One temptation in a dynasty is to put future hope ahead of winning this year. There are some people who would sell out every year to try to win now. It's their yearly philosophy. Then there are others who can't pass up on the potential, which comes in at what % of the time?

 

In this scenario, I think if my team was not in competition this year, I would probably trade Johnson for those two. But that is only if I thought that I would be getting a future #1 and a #2 in those 2 guys, or if DJ was in year 5 in his career, I would probably do it no matter my team.

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I never did take that first DJ offer, just couldn't do it.

But he is still open to the league, and was offered this by someone else.

 

Give: David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald

Get: Jay Ajayi, Allen Robinson, Amari Cooper

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I never did take that first DJ offer, just couldn't do it.

But he is still open to the league, and was offered this by someone else.

 

Give: David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald

Get: Jay Ajayi, Allen Robinson, Amari Cooper

 

I don't think I could do that deal. Yeah, I know Fitz's tenure is soon to end, but none of those 3 guys really jump out to me. Why would the Eagles change their attack to the run game? Why would they all of a sudden just make Ajayi their workhorse when what they're doing? Where's Robinson going to play next year? He's a FA and the Jags have other options. Do they even want to bring him back? That's probably good for Robinson if they don't, but where he ends up might force the other owner to remove him from the offer. For example, the Eagles may kick Torrey Smith to the curb and bring him in. What if the Packers feel that Jordy is done? Maybe Green Bay signs him. Or, for the worse, what if he ends up in Cleveland or NY with Jets or in Buffalo? Amari Cooper is too much of a gamble.

 

I don't think I'd even do that deal if the guy wanted just Johnson for those 3, let alone adding Fitzgerald to the package. Now, I would take that deal for Fitzgerald. But honestly, I wouldn't feel really all that great about it.

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Hope it's ok too post, I don't do keepers.

 

But I would agree with the above poster.

 

D J is the key player in that situation, and I don't see any of those others being worthy of him.

 

I would pass on that deal.

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I never did take that first DJ offer, just couldn't do it.

But he is still open to the league, and was offered this by someone else.

 

Give: David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald

Get: Jay Ajayi, Allen Robinson, Amari Cooper

A deal like that really hinges on a lot of factors.

 

First and foremost you hopefully would have a lot of depth at RB to lose DJ. Ajayi will likely be in a timeshare next season with Clement/whatever bruiser RB they sign or draft.

 

Aside from that though, A-Robs location next season is the biggest one. He won't go to Philly b/c they don't have the cap space. If he goes to the 49ers though? Could be interesting.

 

Cooper is devalued in dynasty, but if Crabtree leaves this off-season, hard not to like the target volume he's going to receive. I actually like him a lot as a buy low early this off-season.

 

I think if you have RB depth, that's not a terrible deal. I'd likely want to see if I could squeeze a tiny bit more...say like a mid to late 2nd (lots of depth at WR in this rookie class). If you could somehow snag a pick that could get you a guy like James Washington in addition to those, you got a good crop of young WRs

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It's a fair offer.

I'm guessing gronks retirement talk has some worried. And others as a buy low?

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It's a fair offer.

 

 

I'm guessing gronks retirement talk has some worried. And others as a buy low?

 

It may be a fair offer by market values but I personally find it very hard to gauge Gronk's dynasty value right now because it appears there is a very wide range of realistic outcomes beginning with Zero. Put me in the camp that thinks there is a chance he retires.

 

At a certain price, a wide range of values represents an opportunity in and of itself.................. but its hard for me to think of a situation where I would give up Kelce to take the other side of that deal...................the 1.12 piece would have to be significantly more substantial for me.

 

In all honesty I likely just wouldn't trade another elite starter for Gronk right now unless it was something like QB if I had 2........................like Deshaun Watson plus 1.12 if I had another QB I felt good about.

 

I guess that puts me in the "worried" category.............. but I'm not losing any sleep. lol

 

I'll stick to owning Gronk in redraft going forward. I tend to be willing to pay more for him than others there, so staying away in dynasty should work out well overall for me.

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That's a very good assessment of the deal.

 

Would agree.

 

I don't think I would give up Kelce for Gronk either.

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So I traded picks #10 and #12 for #1. So now I have #1 and #7 and am going to try to trade #7 for Devante Adams and pick #27.

 

14 team full keeper standard.

 

Starting lineup would be

A. Rodgers

T. Gurley

S. Barkley

M. Thomas

....Adams

Kicker.

 

Would trade be even or should I look for a rookie wr at 7?

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I wouldn't trade Adams for pick # 7.

 

At the same time if you can jump on it.

 

Good luck.

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I would agree, it is beyond you.

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How you got 1.01 for 1.10 & 1.12 is beyond me

Lol I offered and made it like it was no big deal if he didn't want it I would've had 3 picks in the 1st rd anyway. His team is pretty bad too and 1 player shouldn't be enough to get better enough to win anything. Quarterback is/was his biggest need and why he finished last but they are always drafted late so he should get 1 of the top 3 late anyway.

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I wouldn't trade Adams for pick # 7.

 

At the same time if you can jump on it.

 

Good luck.

Dang was hoping I was guessing his value right. Can you give me 3 of your early rookie picks at wr? I been researching the "free agents" in my league and there is nothing worth pick 7 veteran players. I would be better to maybe trade back a couple of spots?

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Dang was hoping I was guessing his value right. Can you give me 3 of your early rookie picks at wr? I been researching the "free agents" in my league and there is nothing worth pick 7 veteran players. I would be better to maybe trade back a couple of spots?

I've never been a big fan of his. So I personally wouldn't do it. For someone who does like him, I still think it's high. A bottom first, top of the second, would be a value I'd be comfortable with in a 14 teamer.

 

As for your rookie question. I'm a huge fan of Sutton and St. Brown myself. And then there are a handful of other guys that float others peoples boats.

If you want my advice. You've already done excellent with your first trade. So just hang on for a month. Learn about the rooies yourself. Watch the combine, and the start of free agency. And then when it gets closer to the draft (when rookie fever really hits) Then maybe make another move.

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How you got 1.01 for 1.10 & 1.12 is beyond me

There's no explanation necessary. The person that had 1.01 got fleeced.

 

There's literally no reason whatsoever to trade the 1.01 prior to the NFL draft unless you're getting a top-15 dynasty asset in return

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I've never been a big fan of his. So I personally wouldn't do it. For someone who does like him, I still think it's high. A bottom first, top of the second, would be a value I'd be comfortable with in a 14 teamer.

 

As for your rookie question. I'm a huge fan of Sutton and St. Brown myself. And then there are a handful of other guys that float others peoples boats.

If you want my advice. You've already done excellent with your first trade. So just hang on for a month. Learn about the rooies yourself. Watch the combine, and the start of free agency. And then when it gets closer to the draft (when rookie fever really hits) Then maybe make another move.

Thanks for the reply I'm in no hurry to trade pick 7 I'm happy staying there. But I like Adams and if I can get him and move back to pick 27 I would be ☺. The rookie wr I'm drawn to is Michael Gallup, Colorado State. But I feel 7 is to high to draft him so I may need to trade back some and pick up more draft picks (I don't have my second rd because I traded it for derrick Henry).

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Call me crazy but I value Kelce similar to Gronk and while I would take Gronk over Kelce I sure as heck wouldn't give a second round or first round pick in the transaction unless I was going all in on next year.

jdon

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Currently mulling the following offers -

 

12 team full ppr:

 

Team A: Brady, Ingram, 1.08, 1.10.

Team B: Cousins, Gurley

 

another:

 

12 team half point ppr:

 

Team A: Ingram, Reed, V Davis

Team B: Riddick, Crowell, Hunter Henry

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There's no explanation necessary. The person that had 1.01 got fleeced.

 

There's literally no reason whatsoever to trade the 1.01 prior to the NFL draft unless you're getting a top-15 dynasty asset in return

 

Agreed. Two years ago a friend of mine took over an awful team in a 12-team dynasty league that had the #1 pick overall. I helped him turn Ezekiel Elliott into 9 first round picks and 5 second round picks... not all picks have been made yet, but will be after this coming draft. That year I told him to offer pick #1 to a guy who had picks 4, 8, 12, 14, 20, & 22. Then traded some of those picks for more / future picks. Only used picks 12 and 22 that year, but got 4 picks last year in the first round and 1 in the second and has 4 more this year in first round and 3 in the second. Barkley should have yielded at least 6 or more first round picks (with other deals).

 

I found dynasty league owners are much bigger risk takers. There are many willing to make deals.

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Currently mulling the following offers -

 

12 team full ppr:

 

Team A: Brady, Ingram, 1.08, 1.10.

Team B: Cousins, Gurley

 

another:

 

12 team half point ppr:

 

Team A: Ingram, Reed, V Davis

Team B: Riddick, Crowell, Hunter Henry

 

In the full point ppr league, I'd rather have Cousins and Gurley... that one is easy. Cousins is going to go to either Denver, Minnesota, or Jacksonville, all who have great talent around them and are winning teams. If he's at any of those 3, I can see ranking him as the #1 fantasy QB next year, definitely top 3. In that respect, he's at worst equal to Brady. Gurley had a much better year than in years past and is "the guy" in LA and he's better than Ingram. Ingram will be a free agent after 2018. Where's he going to go? I'd rather have Gurley who's 5 years younger and in a better long term situation. Picks 8 and 10? Meh.

 

In the half point league, I'd take the Ingram side. No one on the other side are really worth much. Riddick isn't that good. Crowell is "meh" and I think Henry is more hype than production. Solid TE, but I wouldn't feel comfortable starting him every week.

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Agreed. Two years ago a friend of mine took over an awful team in a 12-team dynasty league that had the #1 pick overall. I helped him turn Ezekiel Elliott into 9 first round picks and 5 second round picks... not all picks have been made yet, but will be after this coming draft. That year I told him to offer pick #1 to a guy who had picks 4, 8, 12, 14, 20, & 22. Then traded some of those picks for more / future picks. Only used picks 12 and 22 that year, but got 4 picks last year in the first round and 1 in the second and has 4 more this year in first round and 3 in the second. Barkley should have yielded at least 6 or more first round picks (with other deals).

 

I found dynasty league owners are much bigger risk takers. There are many willing to make deals.

I traded Amari Cooper and the 1.02 for the 1.01 that season...to ultimately draft Zeke.

 

1.02 ended up being Doctson.

 

That trade is a lot closer in value now than it was five minutes after I did it.

 

That's the one thing with dynasty trades. It takes a while sometimes to identify the winners and losers.

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Currently mulling the following offers -

 

12 team full ppr:

 

Team A: Brady, Ingram, 1.08, 1.10.

Team B: Cousins, Gurley

 

 

That's pretty good value on either side, depending on the depth at RB for the Gurley owner (haven't checked if this is a league I share with you haha).

 

I think I would side the Gurley side, but if those picks hit it could be a very close trade.

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