Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
DanMarino13

2019 Fantasy Football First Overall Pick

Recommended Posts

2018 #1 overall pick has been a consensus RB Todd Gurley

 

Gurley with an ADP around the Overall Pick #20 going into drafts last year and ended up being the Top Fantasy performer. Turns out he was quite the value and won owners a lot of leagues last year.

 

Some of the stats on Gurley's 2017 season vs 2016 season

 

- Increased Yards per carry from 3.2 in 2016 to 4.7 in 2017.

- Increased receptions from 43 to 64.

- Increased Total TD from 6 to 19

 

Some of the reasons I believe Gurley had a magical 2017 season

 

- Team had much better QB and WR play

- Team had an outstanding Defense

- Team had one of the best records in the league and won their division with 11-5 record

 

 

There is a current running RB with an ADP around Overal Pick #12 going into 2018 drafts that I believe could end up being this season's Top Fantasy performer...

 

His name...

 

Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings

 

- Cook showed tremendous NFL skill set in the short sample of 4 games he played last season before suffering a torn ACL.will

- Cook has shown so far this preseason and in camp that he is fully recovered from the injury.

- His team will have better QB and WR play this season with the addition of Kirk Cousins and the emergence of Adam Thielan and Stephon Diggs

- His team as an outstanding defense, giving him ample opportunites

- Team will have one of the best records in the league, after going 13-3 last season and getting better and more healthy this season.

 

Fantasy owners seem a little gun shy on Cook for these reasons.

 

- returning from a major injury

- short NFL track record

- Latavius Murray still on team to steal carries/TDs from Cook

 

Personally, I'm not concerned about those first two points and Cook is vastly more talented than Murray and the Vikings will realize it before they even break camp and feed Dalvin the rock all year long.

 

My prediction for 2019 Top Five Fantasy Picks

 

1. RB Dalvin Cook

2. RB Saquan Barkley

3. RB Todd Gurley

4. WR Odell Beckham

5. WR Michael Thomas

 

Both DJ and Bell will start to show their age while their teams give starts to rookie QBs, but both will still put up near Top 10 fantasy numbers if healthy.

 

Bold Rookie Prediction: Browns RB Nick Chubb have 2nd best rookie RB season behind Barkley

 

 

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

D J will be only 27.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Zeke in a possible contract season

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like it. I had Cook ranked No.11 prior to last season and he's certainly in the mix for finishing as the top running back this season but I wouldn't bet on it given this is Cousins' first year with the team and I doubt they can perform at a high enough level to make Cook the overall No.1 RB... but I still like the prediction! :thumbsup:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

David Johnson in last year of rookie contract. Fresh legs, offense runs through him with fitzgerald the only viable wr. check down city.

 

Davante Adams is another i really like this year. Jordy gone, not worried about jimmy graham.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DJ start to show his age? Wut? Nice post but this was kind of off the wall. Dudes a baby still on his rookie deal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Uh, 2019??? Really? I'm kind of focused on 2018.

 

I think the point is to predict which player will turn out to be great value, thus moving their adp for 2019 way up

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Derrick Henry will be a first round pick next seasons draft. Thats my big prediction for this years RB crop.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Derrick Henry will be a first round pick next seasons draft. Thats my big prediction for this years RB crop.

I dont disagree exactly. But Henry seems to have been trendy last year and this year. I was high on him in dynasty leagues. But in a ppr? With Lewis ad the 3rd down back? Meh the ceiling seems low. He averaged 4.2 a carry last year with like 12 catches. Sure he should get carries but not sure if it will = big production.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dont disagree exactly. But Henry seems to have been trendy last year and this year. I was high on him in dynasty leagues. But in a ppr? With Lewis ad the 3rd down back? Meh the ceiling seems low. He averaged 4.2 a carry last year with like 12 catches. Sure he should get carries but not sure if it will = big production.

He wasn’t the starter last year, Murray was. This is his year to shine, if he doesn’t, he may never have a chance to break out again. Lewis is injury prone and away from the sweet patriots embrace.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1)Zeke (Bo Scarborough turns fullback parting the sea every play)

2)Mixon ( will be competing with Zeke entire year for rushing title)

3)Beckham ( Barkley opens up alot more Odell to have a record breaking season)

4)David Johnson ( regresses in passing game via rookie qb however has career highs on the ground)

5)Josh Gordon ( yup..Gordon,will start the season with pedestrian numbers but once Mayfield takes over the qb position..you'll be getting "FLASHbacks" of Montana to Rice on a weekly basis!)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No way Cook gets the touches to surpass any of the first four rbs and become next years number one...Coming off of an acl, he just won't get the touches...the Vikings are going to ease him in by sprinkling in Murray in a split to start the year.

 

Beckham can't stay healthy and thomas doesn't get into the end zone enough to become number 1.

 

The other two I like

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Beckham can't stay healthy

This is baseless. He was hurt last year, he was fine for 3 years prior. He doesnt deserve an injury prone label at all. I feel he is in for a huge season (as usual) if he plays at least 14gm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gurley was the number 1 fantasy performer but was overlooked because Jeff Fisher is a terrible coach, and McVay came in and got Gurley touches in space because he's not a terrible coach. Gurley was the leading receiver on the team for Christ's sake.

 

Teams that had terrible coaches last year are:

Giants - Replaced McAdoo with Pat Shurmur

Bears - John Fox was replaced by Matt Nagy

Lions - Jim Caldwell replaced by Matt Patricia

Raiders - Replaced Jack Del Rio with Jon Gruden

Broncos - They decided to keep Vance Joseph around for one more year, but I'm sure he'll be gone by week 12

Browns - Decided to advertise how terrible he is on Hard Knocks.

 

Teams with not as terrible coaches that got replaced

Colts - Pagano replaced by Frank Reich

Titans - Mularky replaced by Mike Vrabel

Cardinals - Bruce Arians replaced by Steve Wilks

 

The Bears fit the narrative the best. Young, raw quarterback that was being held back by a coach who has no focking clue how to develop a quarterback replaced by a young up and comer that's supposed to be some offensive whiz kid. Problem is the Bears don't have a single player on their offense anywhere near as talented as Gurley. Maybe Allen Robinson is the guy that will surprise people? I personally don't think Trubisky is very good myself, but with Nagy or Helfrich in his ear doing what McVay did with Goff last year feeding him adjustments at the line of scrimmage, he might be able to look decent.

 

The Giants getting rid of McAdoo, adding an NFL caliber left tackle, getting Odell back, and drafting Barkley will raise the level of the whole offense as well, so Odell would be my pick.

 

Colts get Luck back and added some serious help to the O-line, so Ty Hilton will probably get righteous and a guy like Milton Mack might end up being a high end RB2.

 

I'd expect the Lions, Raiders, Titans, and Cardinals to all suck.

 

So My final list of candidates that will outperform there ADP based on the 2017 Rams blueprint is:

OBJ

Allen Robinson

Milton Mack

TY Hilton

 

OBJ is the guy I'd go with.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

for Christ's sake.

 

Teams with not as terrible coaches that got replaced

Titans - Mularky replaced by Mike Vrabel

 

 

Wait, what?!?

 

Surprised you didn't include Mularky in the first group, from an offensive standpoint I think he matches Hue's ineptness.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is baseless. He was hurt last year, he was fine for 3 years prior. He doesnt deserve an injury prone label at all. I feel he is in for a huge season (as usual) if he plays at least 14gm.

He missed the first few games of his rookie season with an injury and has been knicked up a bit at other times, but I agree, he shouldn't be labeled as injury prone

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gurley was the number 1 fantasy performer but was overlooked because Jeff Fisher is a terrible coach, and McVay came in and got Gurley touches in space because he's not a terrible coach. Gurley was the leading receiver on the team for Christ's sake.

 

Teams that had terrible coaches last year are:

Giants - Replaced McAdoo with Pat Shurmur

Bears - John Fox was replaced by Matt Nagy

Lions - Jim Caldwell replaced by Matt Patricia

Raiders - Replaced Jack Del Rio with Jon Gruden

Broncos - They decided to keep Vance Joseph around for one more year, but I'm sure he'll be gone by week 12

Browns - Decided to advertise how terrible he is on Hard Knocks.

 

Teams with not as terrible coaches that got replaced

Colts - Pagano replaced by Frank Reich

Titans - Mularky replaced by Mike Vrabel

Cardinals - Bruce Arians replaced by Steve Wilks

 

The Bears fit the narrative the best. Young, raw quarterback that was being held back by a coach who has no focking clue how to develop a quarterback replaced by a young up and comer that's supposed to be some offensive whiz kid. Problem is the Bears don't have a single player on their offense anywhere near as talented as Gurley. Maybe Allen Robinson is the guy that will surprise people? I personally don't think Trubisky is very good myself, but with Nagy or Helfrich in his ear doing what McVay did with Goff last year feeding him adjustments at the line of scrimmage, he might be able to look decent.

 

The Giants getting rid of McAdoo, adding an NFL caliber left tackle, getting Odell back, and drafting Barkley will raise the level of the whole offense as well, so Odell would be my pick.

 

Colts get Luck back and added some serious help to the O-line, so Ty Hilton will probably get righteous and a guy like Milton Mack might end up being a high end RB2.

 

I'd expect the Lions, Raiders, Titans, and Cardinals to all suck.

 

So My final list of candidates that will outperform there ADP based on the 2017 Rams blueprint is:

OBJ

Allen Robinson

Milton Mack

TY Hilton

 

OBJ is the guy I'd go with.

I am in the camp that thought Pagano was garbage.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am in the camp that thought Pagano was garbage.

Its actually surprising how many coaches create terrible situations, get fired, find a new team and them people are suddenly all over them like they are geniuses. I never understand it. I know sometimes any change is good but it gets ridiculous sometimes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Its actually surprising how many coaches create terrible situations, get fired, find a new team and them people are suddenly all over them like they are geniuses. I never understand it. I know sometimes any change is good but it gets ridiculous sometimes.

I never got a guy like Adam Gase, who has a career created because Peyton Manning was his qb. Like it was Gase who was the genius there...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Best values and/or drafted higher next year, in my opinion:

 

David Johnson

Davante Adams

Marquise Goodwin

Alex Collins

Kenyon Drake

Pat Mahomes

Royce Freeman

TY Hilton

John Brown

Josh Gordon (although he's being drafted kind of high this year with all his risk)

Derrick Henry

Marlon Mack

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am in the camp that thought Pagano was garbage.

I was giving Pagano the benefit of the doubt because the GM was a dumpster fire and the whole organization is pretty dysfunctional.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was giving Pagano the benefit of the doubt because the GM was a dumpster fire and the whole organization is pretty dysfunctional.

Yeah the GM was horrendous. I still put a lot of blame him for never making the line better. It was so baffling to see them draft crap at every position year after year and never even bother to throw darts at linemen in the draft

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gurley was the number 1 fantasy performer but was overlooked because Jeff Fisher is a terrible coach, and McVay came in and got Gurley touches in space because he's not a terrible coach. Gurley was the leading receiver on the team for Christ's sake.

 

Teams that had terrible coaches last year are:

Giants - Replaced McAdoo with Pat Shurmur

Bears - John Fox was replaced by Matt Nagy

Lions - Jim Caldwell replaced by Matt Patricia

Raiders - Replaced Jack Del Rio with Jon Gruden

Broncos - They decided to keep Vance Joseph around for one more year, but I'm sure he'll be gone by week 12

Browns - Decided to advertise how terrible he is on Hard Knocks.

 

Teams with not as terrible coaches that got replaced

Colts - Pagano replaced by Frank Reich

Titans - Mularky replaced by Mike Vrabel

Cardinals - Bruce Arians replaced by Steve Wilks

 

The Bears fit the narrative the best. Young, raw quarterback that was being held back by a coach who has no focking clue how to develop a quarterback replaced by a young up and comer that's supposed to be some offensive whiz kid. Problem is the Bears don't have a single player on their offense anywhere near as talented as Gurley. Maybe Allen Robinson is the guy that will surprise people? I personally don't think Trubisky is very good myself, but with Nagy or Helfrich in his ear doing what McVay did with Goff last year feeding him adjustments at the line of scrimmage, he might be able to look decent.

 

The Giants getting rid of McAdoo, adding an NFL caliber left tackle, getting Odell back, and drafting Barkley will raise the level of the whole offense as well, so Odell would be my pick.

 

Colts get Luck back and added some serious help to the O-line, so Ty Hilton will probably get righteous and a guy like Milton Mack might end up being a high end RB2.

 

I'd expect the Lions, Raiders, Titans, and Cardinals to all suck.

 

So My final list of candidates that will outperform there ADP based on the 2017 Rams blueprint is:

OBJ

Allen Robinson

Milton Mack

TY Hilton

 

OBJ is the guy I'd go with.

How is OBJ going to out-produce a #2 overall receiver ADP? By beating out Antonio Brown? And who is Milton Mack? The Saints 1987 5th round draft selection of a cornerback?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I love Gordon's volume and involvement in the pass game, but I have a hard time believing a RB with a 3.8 ypc can be the number one overall. I'm thinking #6.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gordon is going to be at least slightly underrated his whole career it seems. And I love it for fantasy and I will keep on drafting him. If that oline ever plays even decently for a season, Gordon is going to have an absurd year. Top 3 for instance. The Chargers have a legacy for being snakebitten on oline. I am aware. But what if it comes together one time?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Melvin Gordon will finish no 1 overall this year

I hope. I have him dynasty.

 

I honestly just dont think he is that elite of a talent. Ive watched a lot of his games. He is solid no doubt but he isnt as talented as the top backs. But yeah he gets a lot of work. They used ekeler in some games a bit and he did well. Not sure if they are looking to keep melvin fresh or what. I know they like ekeler a lot.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I love Gordon's volume and involvement in the pass game, but I have a hard time believing a RB with a 3.8 ypc can be the number one overall. I'm thinking #6.

 

he finished no 7 in 2016

he finished no 5 in 2017

 

I project him at 16 td's, Chargers have a great defense, so I think he gets 20 carries and 3-4 catches a game, he will be right there in that 20ppg PPR range

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How is OBJ going to out-produce a #2 overall receiver ADP? By beating out Antonio Brown? And who is Milton Mack? The Saints 1987 5th round draft selection of a cornerback?

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp

 

Obj's adp is behind DeAndre Hopkins and is 2.01. he sure as shìt qualifies for this discussion more than David Johnson who's already at 1.04.

 

Also I'm a Saints fan and I'm developing dimensia. So yeah in my head I probably was confusing the name Marlon with Milton.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp

Obj's adp is behind DeAndre Hopkins and is 2.01. he sure as shìt qualifies for this discussion more than David Johnson who's already at 1.04.

Also I'm a Saints fan and I'm developing dimensia. So yeah in my head I probably was confusing the name Marlon with Milton.

I’d be thrilled with Obj in the 2nd and I’m even hoping he falls to me at pick 9. Few guys are locked into top 5 at their position if healthy and Obj is one of them imo. All I ever ask of my first pick is to not bust. Most of the time they do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×