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The ***Official*** Super Bowl XLIX Thread

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This is a Deflategate Free Zone. There is a little thread already created for that in case you missed it. :)

 

Sunday February 1, 2015 6:30pm

 

New England -1

Seattle 47.5

 

 

It appears that the line came out with the Seahawks favored 2 and then all the early money came in on the Pats. In fact I read where 78% of the betting money so far has been on the Patriots. Any gambler knows that means the Seahawks are the play. Normally the general public are dummies.

 

My personal take: Should be a great game as it's essentially a pick'em. I am picking the Seahawks for two reasons. 1. I think Bobby Wagner / Cam Chancellor are about as good of a matchup a Defense can have on Gronk. And we all know as Gronk goes, the Pats go. Also, this season the Patriots weakness on Defense can be against the run. Marshawn Lynch seems to be a big game runner and he runs hard.

 

My prediction:

 

Seahawks 27

Patriots 20

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Lack of a pass rush and collection of average wrs finally catches up to the Hawks.

 

NE 30

Seattle 20

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Also Katy Perry is performing at halftime. So turn down the volumn and grab the lube!@#! :banana:

If there was ever a year to root for a wardrobe malfunction this is it :music_guitarred:

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Bovada opened this game at Seattle -3, I got a pretty large wager in at that number. Game got bet all the way to Pats -2.5. I have a similarly sized bet on that side as well, pretty big middle there of four numbers. :thumbsup: If the middle hits, I will be a happy man.

 

I think the Patriots come out like they did last time they got railed on for cheating. Bill Simmons called it "F You Mode". Patriots do the same thing Green Bay did, minus the epic choke job at the end.

 

New England 31

Seattle 20

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Honestly could see the game going either way. New England has to get something going on the ground. No way Brady slings it 50 times against Seattle. I do think they can dink and dunk down the middle of the field with Edelman and Gronk, maybe Vareen. If they keep the heat off Brady I can see them putting up 28 which is the magic number against Seattle.

 

Seattle will have to get pressure on Brady and work the run game. They'll probably also need a couple big plays from Kearse to have a shot. Their defense played really well against GB considering they were playing on a short field half the game. Limit turnovers, play field position and keep drives going and they could win.

 

Don't think the controversy inspires too much. Pats were so good after Spygate because they had Moss. They'll play like they have most of the year: Smart and hard. Just don't think good teams need the extra motivation to be the best.

 

Seattle 20

New England 17

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"F You Mode"

 

I keep hearing this sentiment. Do we really think a player will play "harder" now than he would have before in the SUPER BOWL because of some bulletin board material type stuff? Do we really think a player will hustle more, run faster, jump higher, hit harder than they would have before some bulletin board stuff? In the biggest game of the year? Every player out there will be playing to their full potential and hustle.

 

I think that part is overblown. Whatever happens Sunday is what happens, it has little to do with off the field rumors and investigations. If anything all the time the Pats have to spend on worring about it and talking about it and holding press conferences about it takes away from game preperation.

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I keep hearing this sentiment. Do we really think a layer will play "harder" now than he would have before in the SUPER BOWL because of some bulletin board material type stuff? Do we really think a player will hustle more, run faster, jump higher, hit harder than they would have before some bulletin board stuff? In the biggest game of the year?

 

I think that part is overblown. Whatever happens Sunday is what happens, it has little to do with off the field rumors and investigations. If anything all the time the Pats have to spend on worring about it and talking about it and holding press conferences about it takes away from game preperation.

which is why they will be owed an apology, even in the win.

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Some NFL Season Stats

 

Seattle Ranks:

 

1st total yards per game allowed Defense

1st passing ypg allowed Defense

3rd rushing ypg allowed Defense

 

9th total ypg gained Offense

27th passing ypg gained Offense

1st rushing ypg gained Offense

 

 

New England Ranks:

 

13th total ypg allowed Defense

17th passing ypg allowed Defense

9th rushing ypg allowed Defense

 

11th total ypg gained Offense

9th passing ypg gained Offense

18th rushing ypg gained Offense

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I'm hoping for a terrorist attack that kills both teams :banana:

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I'm hoping for a terrorist attack that kills both teams :banana:

the only chance the vikings have of maybe being better than the 32nd best team in the league

:(

30th woooooohooooo :first:

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Bovada opened this game at Seattle -3, I got a pretty large wager in at that number. Game got bet all the way to Pats -2.5. I have a similarly sized bet on that side as well, pretty big middle there of four numbers. :thumbsup: If the middle hits, I will be a happy man.

 

 

I think you have a great shot at that middle as I'm predicting a great Super Bowl that comes down to a last second FG for the win,while I can't pick a team I'm thinking 24-23 final.Good luck.

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If there was ever a year to root for a wardrobe malfunction this is it :music_guitarred:

Be careful what you wish for. Marshawn Lynch may take his TD celebration to the next level.

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No horse in this race, and actually kind of like both teams.

 

I just don't see a way Seattle loses this game.

 

SEA 27

NE 17

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I'm waiting for Phillybear and his 20,000 word preview of the game

 

It will be up on Saturday.

 

Rat's Ass.

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What's the best web site for prop bets in the geeks opinions ?

Ed suggested this one to me,they've got over 500 prop bets.Hell I'm using a lot of them for my props sheet we do at our Super Bowl party.

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I think you have a great shot at that middle as I'm predicting a great Super Bowl that comes down to a last second FG for the win,while I can't pick a team I'm thinking 24-23 final.Good luck.

I will take 24-23 either direction. :thumbsup:

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Whats the latest on the health of the Seahawks DB's? I know at least two were pretty banged up after the Packers game.

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Whats the latest on the health of the Seahawks DB's? I know at least two were pretty banged up after the Packers game.

the patriots stole their injury report

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Also Katy Perry is performing at halftime. So turn down the volumn and grab the lube!@#! :banana:

Hoping for malfunction

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Whats the latest on the health of the Seahawks DB's? I know at least two were pretty banged up after the Packers game.

Saw that Sherman might have torn ligaments in his elbow but has been practicing in full.

Haven't heard anything about Thomas but imagine he'll be good to go as well.

 

 

 

 

Can't see this game as a blowout either way. No way either team pisses their pants like the Broncos last year. Way too tough and well coached. Should be a good game.

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Saw that Sherman might have torn ligaments in his elbow but has been practicing in full.

Haven't heard anything about Thomas but imagine he'll be good to go as well.

 

 

 

Good to hear they've been practicing in full, sounds like Sherman is banged up pretty good though.

 

I must admit, I'm pretty excited for this game. I don't like either team per se, but I love the match-up. Both teams are tough nosed, don't give an inch teams who play together and seem well coached. With two heady QB's.

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I guess I would take the Pats if I end up betting it. I can see them winning a ball control kinda 20-17 game. I've got enough on SB squares and prop bets already to keep me entertained.

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At about 3.20 it gets good.... :D

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Picking the side: 15-2 (lost at St Louis, lost vs Dallas)

Against the spread: 15-2 (lost at St Louis, lost Green Bay (playoff))

 

New England Patriots (-1) vs. Seattle Seahawks

 

Seattle offense is #9 with 375.8 yards per game, New England is #11 with 365.5 ypg

Seattle averages 5.3 yards per rush and #1, New England 3.9 ypr and #18

Seattle is #27 passing offense, New England #9 passing offense

Seattle is #6 in yards per pass play with 7.7, New England is #20 with 7.0 ypp

Seattle is #11 at converting 3rd downs at 42%, New England is #6 converting 3rd downs at 44%

Seattle is #1 total defense giving up 267.1 yards per game, New England #20 giving up 344.1 ypg

Seattle gives up 15.9 points per game and #1, New England #8 with 19.6 ppg

Seattle defense is #8 in allowing 3rd conversions at 37%, New England #16 at 40%

Seattle is the #3 rush defense, New England #9

Seattle allows 3.4 yards per rush which is #2, New England gives up 4.0 and #8

Seattle is #1 vs the pass with 185.6 yards per game, New England #17 with 239.8 ypg

Seattle allows 6.3 yards per pass play and #2, New England #15 with 7.2 yppp

Seattle has outgained 15 of 18 opponents in total yards

Seattle has won their last 8 games, 7 by double digits, covering all but the Green Bay game

Seattle is 14-1 in prime time games in their last 15

 

Seattle hasn’t lost by double digits, including preseason, during the Russell Wilson era. That is 67 games. That stat would be never lost by more than a TD, but San Diego kicked a last minute FG to win by 9 earlier this year. Those that are predicting a New England blow out win may or may not have seen that information. Another interesting tidbit: Total yards gained from scrimmage for 2014: Tom Brady had 4166 and Russell Wilson had 4324. Yep, Wilson accounted for 158 yards more in offense than Brady. He ran for some yards, but you get the point.

 

This game reminds me a lot of last year, where the public in general is siding with the glamorous QB in the Super Bowl, and with a lot of short term memory. Whereas everybody remembers Seattle needing to come from way behind to beat Green Bay and that New England blew out an indoor Indianapolis team in outdoor weather two weeks ago, every seems to have forgotten that three weeks ago, Seattle cruised past Carolina while New England needed to come from way behind Baltimore, twice, to eek out a game. So, let’s not get wrapped up in what happened in just the last game. The season, and playoff season, has a certain ebb and flow. I think the odds makers got it right in installing Seattle as the favorite when the line opened, but everybody and their grandmother is tripping over themselves to get fistfuls of dirty filthy cash on New England. Not so fast.

 

It’s hard to find a statistical edge for New England. New England was a bit better at stopping the run than I initially suspected, coming it at #9 in rush defense and #8 at yards per rush. When you dig deeper, New England was #28 at stopping the run with a hit at the line of scrimmage or behind the line of scrimmage. Seattle was the 6th best in the NFL at not getting a running play stuffed. Seattle happens to be #1 in the NFL in converting 3rd and 2 or less, a down they typically run the ball. New England is #30 in stopping teams on 3rd and 2 or less. Seattle can play smash mouth, and New England can’t stop it. Marshawn Lynch led the league in breaking tackles, well over 100+ tackles broken. NE hasn’t faced the read option all year. That’s an enormous factor. The read option could potentially be a potent weapon in this game. There is reason to believe Seattle can run the ball on New England. Bill Belichick is notorious for game planning to take away your best offensive weapon, but the Seattle rushing attack is Lynch plus Wilson, much harder to corral. NE plays a lot of nickel and dime instead of a base defense. They could try to stack the box to slow down Lynch, and install a spy with Collier or Chung to keep an eye on Wilson, especially on read options. This is basically what every team has been trying to do to Seattle all season, more specifically from Week 11 to now. Everybody tries to bottle up Lynch. And there has been some moderate success, mostly in the first half of games, and then there was a game or two when Lynch was sick on the sidelines vomiting. In the 2nd half, invariably, Lynch has worn down the defense and he goes off for huge chunks of yards. Lynch had a strong game vs. Green Bay from start to finish. The problem was that the ball kept turning over, so the offense couldn’t sustain. But Lynch was picking up yardage all game long. I don’t think NE physically can shut down the Seattle run game. I could be wrong, but I get the impression that the Patriots don’t fare well against the more physical teams. Just look at the playoffs. They had their hands full with the physical Baltimore team. They whipped the finesse Colts. Then you look at New England’s pass defense, which has very good secondary players, mimicking Seattle’s secondary. Hell, Browner was in Seattle’s secondary before all the drug use and losing his gig to Byron Maxwell. It’s a bit surprising to see them at #17 in pass defense. Can Revis and Browner and whatever else NE schemes to use shut down Baldwin and Kearse? Maybe. Baldwin will roam the slot so it’s hard to imagine that he will get a donut. How often do you see Revis in the middle? But if NE stacks the box, Seattle will be able to pop a pass over the front and get some long gainers with the TEs, all of whom can catch the ball and run for a mile and just as easily inexplicably drop it, and there will be plenty of opportunities for the check downs to Lynch and Turbin. Wilson will take a shot or two deep to Kearse and Lockette. With the focus on Baldwin and Kearse, I imagine that Lockette, Norwood, Walters will play a much bigger role than most anticipate. Lockette especially should be able to make an impact, with a deep ball. I look at the NE and Baltimore playoff game, and Baltimoe had a big game passing the ball which included their WRs coming off the bench to make an impact. NE is susceptible to the big play. Brandon Browner is good for at least one big pass interference penalty in this game. With Unger back at center and healthy, that sets up a really key matchup against Wilfork. If Unger can slow down Wilfork, then NE will not be able to slow down Lynch. Wilson did have 4 picks last week. Two of them were very catchable and were tipped up in the air by the WR. There a terrible decision and pass into coverage into the middle into strong winds. And another ball thrown into the corner of the endzone which was knocked down by the wind and picked. I don’t expect much wind in Arizona for this game, and since Wilson had 7 picks this year prior to the Green Bay playoff game, I’m going to take a leap of faith that it was an anomaly. When teams have game planned to stop Lynch since Week 11 and dared Wilson to beat them, Wilson had beat every single opponent in that time frame. He made a late charge to get into MVP conversation. If New England decides to force Wilson to beat them, the kid has the confidence to do it. Seattle will move the ball, settle for FGs too often, but put up points. I think Lynch and Wilson both have pretty good games.

 

It will be fascinating to see Tom Brady and this offense operate vs. the Seattle defense. New England is not an explosive offense. On a yards per play basis, they are average at best. They are efficient. They convert 44% of their 3rd downs and Brady generally makes good decision with the ball. I can’t imagine Brady will air it out up for grabs down the field all that often. Sherman and Thomas are both fully practicing, so they seem to be ready to go, so I don’t know if they are going to challenge them since both are very adept at causing turnovers. NE could take a page from the San Diego game vs. Seattle, dink and dunk all game long and throw passes up for grabs to a very skilled TE. In fact, going back to the 2012 matchup, when NE had the NFL #1 offense and Seattle had the NFL #1 defense, Brady set a personal record for pass attempts in a game he went 36 for 58 for almost 400 yards. Wilson did OK with almost 300 passing yards, in his rookie year. So there is a precedent for Brady throwing it until his arm falls off and abandoning the run. The risk to this strategy is Kam Chancellor and Bobby Wagner and the rest of the head hunters laying smackdowns over the middle. Last year, Denver talked about how they didn’t expect how physical the Seattle defense was going to be as the Seahawks were ground and pounding their WRs for 4 quarters. Brady could work the sidelines too. The key for Seattle’s defense to slow down Brady is to get after him, like they did vs. Peyton Manning in last year’s Superbowl. You have to live with short pass completions, but you can’t give Brady time in the pocket to survey the field. The NE WRs will run rubs and picks and try to find open pockets of the field to settle into and give Brady targets. Just like the Broncos did last year. Green Bay has a much stronger WR core than NE, and they did limited damage vs. the Seattle secondary. Blount will likely test the middle of Seattle’s defense at some point, and have some success with the lack of depth at the DT for the Seahawks. The Seattle team as a whole has been stout against the run all year, so it’s hard to gauge if New England will enjoy sustained success pounding the rock. I can’t imagine NE game planning to run the ball given the 2012 game. If Seattle can cover Gronkowski with any success at all, it could be a tough day for New England’s offense. Seattle’s defense is the fastest in the NFL, tackles the best, and is punishing. I worry about NE’s misdirection on offense. Eligible lineman and such. I think part of NE’s success in play calling is catching the defense in the wrong formation. Seattle is not imaginative on defense. They line up in the zone cover 3, don’t blitz, and simply dare you to beat them. It’s rare to catch them with their pants down. I really haven’t seen too many breakdowns in coverage this year, even with a bunch of backups playing significant minutes due to injury. The defenders live in the film room and obsessively study film. They mocked Denver last year, saying they knew what play was coming next based on film study. They have done it several times this year after wins; I remember specifically that they bragged that they had the Eagles offense diagnosed immediately. I don’t know if they even did much film study of the Niners since they knew them inside and out. New England will have to somehow find a way to outsmart the Seattle defense without outsmarting themselves Which is possible when you have Brady and the NE coaches. New England will move the ball between the 20’s. Seattle’s defense really gets stingy in the red zone. Last week, Green Bay was gifted 5 turnovers, and scored 16 points off them. GB has a short field all day, living in Seattle territory, and came away with one touchdown.

 

I think if this game were played 100 times, Seattle would win the game around 75 to 80 times. Injuries, turnovers, and key penalties are all factors that cannot be foreseen or accounted for. Seattle has been masterful at 2nd half adjustments for most of the year, and have been shutting down team’s offenses in the 2nd halves of games for months, but I respect NE’s think tank to not be outcoached. We basically pulled John Fox’s pants down last year in the Bowl and gave him a purple nurple. Not going to happen on Sunday. The crowds in Arizona are decidedly showing many more Seattle fans than New England fans, a ratio estimated to be 4:1 in Seattle’s favor. The 12th man is travelling well. Last year, Denver was caught off guard as to how loud the crowd was pro-Seattle. This will play like a semi-home game for Seattle. I really like this New England team overall, but I think the NFC is the stronger conference and NE hasn’t really faced a tough physical team like Seattle all that often this season, if at all. Buffalo, maybe? Meanwhile, Seattle has been trading punches with the physical teams in NFC West all year, especially down the stretch. I am a firm believer in defense and running games will ultimately win you the game, and Seattle is definitely better in both phases over New England. And when you have an underdog with a better defense and running game, that’s where my money is going. Vegas is rooting for Seattle as a heavy percentage of money is coming in on New England, and the line is not moving anymore. I don’t put any stock in deflating footballs and not talking in interviews and other stuff for extra motivation. If you can’t get fired up for playing in the Superbowl, you don’t belong in this league. Note: Seattle is 14-1 in prime time games in their last 15 opportunities. I hope both teams come out of this game injury free.

 

Seattle Seahawks 32

New England Patriots 16

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Seahawks - 30

Patriots - 24

:banana:

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Sadly, I just don't see that Pats winning this game. I don't think they can handle both Lynch and Wilson on the ground. I see Seattle getting out early, and I can't see the Pats coming back against this team. I'm predicting 26-23, but it won't be as close as that score suggests. It'll be a case of too little, too late for the Pats as Seattle controls the game.

 

Oh, and Brandon Browner will have 3 penalties. Easily....

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Pats 30

Hawks 20

 

Nice analysis phillybear. Quick counterpoint..of the last 8 wins by the Hawks, the only decent team and QB they played was Green Bay, who gave them the game. Cam is pretty good, but Carolina was not a good team. Kaepernick and the Niners were broken, every other team was playing with a backup QB. The combined points scored against in their last 6 games of the regular season was 39. That was more those teams sucking. Those games helped their position in the ranks. They could certainly pound away with the running game and get the win, but I would be very surprised if the Pats give up much in the air. NE D is better than most D's Seattle has played this year. NE has played a lot of strong D's including Detroit, who they slaughtered, Buffalo(Pats scored 37 in the mid season game), and Baltimore when they put up 35. You predict Seattle to score the 2nd most they have all year, and the Pats to score the least in a game they cared to win. I don't know about that.

 

Either way let's hope its the great game it looks like. Good Luck Seahawks fans.

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Chinese New Year is pushed way back further into February than it's ever been, so this will be the first Super Bowl that China will cause me to miss. I'll get updates in-games but won't be able to watch. I don't know Katy Perry, but do know that I'd wish this had happened during the Blackeyed Peas Super Bowl rather than hers.

 

I was online typing with you guys that year with the TV running in the background when an awful noise from the TV broke my concentration and I fumbled for the remote to ease the ear pain. Then I missed the first five minutes of the 3rd quarter because I'd forgotten what channel it was on.

 

Anyways, I'll be at work. This has only happened to me one other time: during the war.

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