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mobb_deep

Steel and Aluminum Tariffs (Good or bad?)

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I see a few people have touched lightly on this topic, in some other threads. Admittedly, I know very little about this, and was hoping to get some good conversation and understand the pros and cons a bit better...

 

Here is what I have learned from the research i've done:
  • Free trade is generally positive in the short term, but can have long term negative implications.
  • Tariffs can be used to correct imbalances created from policies that were good in the short term but led to excess imbalance in the long term.
  • The US produces around 70% of our own Steel. The rest comes from Canada, South Korea, Brazil and a few others.
  • By taxing these imports, the goal is to help protect the jobs of the 140,000 Americans who work in this industry.
  • But, it could have negative consequences, as the automotive, aerospace and construction sectors will face higher prices.
  • George W. Bush. imposed a tariff of 30 percent on steel imports in 2002. But the move backfired as thousands of American steelworkers lost their jobs.
  • The EU is saying they will retaliate, which could cause a full blown trade war (not sure if that's good or bad?)
  • The energy industry, and as an extension lobbyists, seem to be against this?
Did I miss anything. What say you all?

 

 

 

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American cars in europe and asia are rare. They are common in the US. Our tariff on those imports are very low. The tariffs on our exports are very high. Not fair, not competitive. Why wouldn't we even up the playing field? Because Wall Street won't like it ?

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American cars in europe and asia are rare. They are common in the US. Our tariff on those imports are very low. The tariffs on our exports are very high. Not fair, not competitive. Why wouldn't we even up the playing field? Because Wall Street won't like it ?

 

GM has a larger market share in asia than toyota and in general American car companies do quite well overseas.

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GM has a larger market share in asia than toyota and in general American car companies do quite well overseas.

Because China makes them produce them in China. Just like Boeing. And you won't find many American cars in Japan or S Korea, but they are abundant here.

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I see a few people have touched lightly on this topic, in some other threads. Admittedly, I know very little about this, and was hoping to get some good conversation and understand the pros and cons a bit better...

 

Here is what I have learned from the research i've done:

 

  • Free trade is generally positive in the short term, but can have long term negative implications.
  • Tariffs can be used to correct imbalances created from policies that were good in the short term but led to excess imbalance in the long term.
  • The US produces around 70% of our own Steel. The rest comes from Canada, South Korea, Brazil and a few others.
  • By taxing these imports, the goal is to help protect the jobs of the 140,000 Americans who work in this industry.
  • But, it could have negative consequences, as the automotive, aerospace and construction sectors will face higher prices.
  • George W. Bush. imposed a tariff of 30 percent on steel imports in 2002. But the move backfired as thousands of American steelworkers lost their jobs.
  • The EU is saying they will retaliate, which could cause a full blown trade war (not sure if that's good or bad?)
  • The energy industry, and as an extension lobbyists, seem to be against this?
Did I miss anything. What say you all?

Pretty sure by typing this out, you put more thought into than the President.

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What are the pros and cons?

 

Sticking with the cars example it will reduce our ability to compete on a global market.

 

For example compare Chevy manufactured in US verse Toyota manufactured in japan and sold to a 3rd country. With tariffs implemented the cost will go up for Chevy, but the costs for Toyota will remain the same. This will make Chevy less competitive in a global economy and will cause Toyota to gain market share over Chevy.

 

I feel that tariffs will hurt more industries than they help.

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Because China makes them produce them in China. Just like Boeing. And you won't find many American cars in Japan or S Korea, but they are abundant here.

 

 

And from what I understand, China is also flooding the market with cheap scrap, as their own domestic needs have slowed. This is making it especially hard for the US to compete, even though we don't import too much steel directly from China.

 

 

What are the pros and cons?

 

At a high level, the pro is domestic jobs and sector growth, as using imported steel/aluminum will be more costly. The con would be the costs of goods being passed on to consumers, and a loss of jobs and profit margins for companies that depend on the industry (automative/aerospace/etc). That's how I understand it so far.

 

Does anyone know what went wrong when Bush did the same thing in 2002? What is different this time?

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Trump knows what he's doing. Sorry if Wall Steeet doesn't like it.

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American cars in europe and asia are rare. They are common in the US. Our tariff on those imports are very low. The tariffs on our exports are very high. Not fair, not competitive. Why wouldn't we even up the playing field? Because Wall Street won't like it ?

Tariffs on cars

 

2.5% USA

10% EU

25% China

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Tariffs on cars

 

2.5% USA

10% EU

25% China

There you have it.

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Tariffs on cars

 

2.5% USA

10% EU

25% China

 

I'm trying to understand what is different now than in 2002, that tariffs will be successful this time around. Do you have any insight on that? This is what I read on Time earlier.

 

http://time.com/5180901/donald-trump-steel-aluminum-tariff/

 

 

In 2002 Bush enacted a tariff of 8% to 30% on foreign steel arguing that the U.S. steel industry was hurt by a surge in imports from overseas. The Bush Administration knew the move would draw sharp critiques with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Zoellick telling TIME at the time that “the Europeans will scream.” Nonetheless the Bush White House calculated that the benefits of helping steelworkers outweighed the cost of angering allies and potentially driving up the price of consumer goods. Bush had promised during his campaign to pay attention to the Rust Belt and a tariff was seen as a way of helping curry support with voters in the region.
But the imposition of tariffs set off a chain reaction. The European Union responded with tariffs of its own and a number of countries disputed the tariffs at the World Trade Organization. Less than a year after the announced tariffs, the WTO ultimately ruled that the U.S. had violated international trade agreements by imposing the tariffs, opening the door for sanctions and retaliation.
And, in fact, the European Union ended up hitting Bush where it hurt. The bloc planned tariffs on a wide range of products, including many produced in key swing states where job losses could hurt Bush’s chances of re-election. In late 2003, Bush reversed the sanctions in a move that would be branded as a flip flop.

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I would say Wall Street and the banks got him to change his mind. I'm just guessing though, but I'd bet on it.

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Historically have been bad and most economists agree...so Im going to go with bad.

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Historically have been bad and most economists agree...so Im going to go with bad.

 

Translation: I read an article that referenced a tariff in the past that was bad for the country and the economists that CNN handpicked agreed that it was a bad move.

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Translation: I read an article that referenced a tariff in the past that was bad for the country and the economists that CNN handpicked agreed that it was a bad move.

Yeah, because high tariffs on our exports and low tariffs on their imports is good for American workers. It's worked out so well. Eye roll

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Translation:

 

Trump idea = Bad

That's about the extent of their analysis. Some guy on CNN said....../

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Translation: I read an article that referenced a tariff in the past that was bad for the country and the economists that CNN handpicked agreed that it was a bad move.

Wrong...as usual.

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Translation: I read an article that referenced a tariff in the past that was bad for the country and the economists that CNN handpicked agreed that it was a bad move.

 

Still that would be more research than you typically do on any subject.

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When it comes to business trump is 100% right. America first.

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In 2009 President Obama imposed a 35 percent tariff on car tires imported from China and no one talked about it.

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Still that would be more research than you typically do on any subject.

 

Shut up ya homo.

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Historically have been bad and most economists agree...so Im going to go with bad.

Translation: I read an article that referenced a tariff in the past that was bad for the country and the economists that CNN handpicked agreed that it was a bad move.

 

Wrong...as usual.

They nailed you to the wall, Stud.

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Historically have been bad and most economists agree...so Im going to go with bad.

And who are these economists that believe high tariffs on our exports and low or no tariffs on our imports is good for the American economy?

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Just googled it and basically everyone is mad and every industry hates it. Why is it good? Why was it done? What the hell even is a tariff?

 

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/2/17070816/trump-steel-aluminum-tariffs-businesses

Apparently because CNN.

I mean...people who claim to be conservatives are now abandoning yet another one of their former principles to support tariffs.

Its no longer a party...supporting Trump is a cult.

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Apparently because CNN.

I mean...people who claim to be conservatives are now abandoning yet another one of their former principles to support tariffs.

Its no longer a party...supporting Trump is a cult.

This is the impression I get as well. If he says it, they retroactively act like they were always behind it from the start. It’s pretty scary really.

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Its the whole problem with the stupid America First mantra.

 

We live in a globalized world now.

 

Dont like it? Too focking bad. Might as well complain about how the horse and buggy days were better.

 

So yeah, it reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of the way things are. Theres no victory here, even if you win the battle (you wont) youre definitely losing the war.

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Its the whole problem with the stupid America First mantra.

We live in a globalized world now.

Dont like it? Too focking bad. Might as well complain about how the horse and buggy days were better.

So yeah, it reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of the way things are. Theres no victory here, even if you win the battle (you wont) youre definitely losing the war.

“We must bring back coal!”

 

WHY?!

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This is the impression I get as well. If he says it, they retroactively act like they were always behind it from the start. Its pretty scary really.

He campaigned on it. Those of us that paid attention know this. Not sure what Gary Johnson had to say about it, and neither do his voters. Lol.

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Its the whole problem with the stupid America First mantra.

 

We live in a globalized world now.

 

Dont like it? Too focking bad. Might as well complain about how the horse and buggy days were better.

 

So yeah, it reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of the way things are. Theres no victory here, even if you win the battle (you wont) youre definitely losing the war.

We live in a system controlled by Oligharchs. Don't like it? Too fockin bad. Get in line and shaddup. It's the way it is.

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He campaigned on it. Those of us that paid attention know this. Not sure what Gary Johnson had to say about it, and neither do his voters. Lol.

That brings me back to before the election where a vast majority of geeks were behind Gary J or Kasich. Almost zero behind Hilary and even those who were did it begrudgingly.

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