The Others 2018 - RBs

[The Football Guru 210]

If you want to know what exactly I'm trying to accomplish with this series of posts, click here and read the intro. Please understand what you see below is not my overall position ranking per se, but a ranking of the players I was able to evaluate given the time I had. With that in mind, here are the RBs as I see them:

1. Saquon Barkley

2. Sony Michel

3. Derrius Guice

4. Ronald Jones II

NFL Comp: Kenyan Drake

Jones aggravated his hamstring at the NFL Combine, pouring a bucket of cold water on what could have been a rise up boards leading up to the draft. There are worries about his ability to carry a full workload based on his 5-11, 205-pound frame, but he missed only one game in his three-year college career with an ankle injury and did not appear to wear down over the course of his 261-carry junior campaign. Like Drake and another back he is often compared to in Jamaal Charles, Jones is a very sudden runner who figures to be more than decent in the passing game despite being underutilized as a receiver during his college years. He may never be the best or most powerful runner in between the tackles, but he made serious strides in that area in 2017 and can push the pile a bit. Better yet, he recorded only two fumbles over 591 career carries. Jones is very twitchy and will make tacklers miss in the hole, making it likely he will do no worse than be the lightning in a committee backfield. Like Drake and Charles, however, all he may need is a multi-game shot to prove he can handle 15-plus touches on a consistent basis before his new team decides he can be the same every-down back in the pros that he was at USC.

5. Rashaad Penny

 

 

6. Kerryon Johnson

NFL Comp: A healthy mix of Matt Forte and DeMarco Murray

It took about two runs to see Johnson either models his game after or has been coached to run like Le'Veon Bell. Johnson is perhaps the most patient college back I can recall watching and, like Bell, he can pay it off because he has a nice amount of short-area burst. His 55 career receptions in three seasons don't really do him justice, as he is advanced for a college back in the passing game and as a blocker. The fact he accumulated 285 carries in 2017 despite missing two games with a hamstring injury speaks to his ability to be a workhorse. Johnson runs with determination in between the tackles and finds a fair amount of success doing so, but his upright running style and high-cut build keeps him from being better in this area. Johnson is not a cut-on-a-dime or make-you-miss kind of guy, but he does flash fancy footwork often enough to believe he will continue to improve in terms of his elusiveness. He also features one of the best stiff-arms in this class. Despite the absence of one or more multiple elite traits, it's hard to imagine he'll be a top-tier back at any point of his career, but the fact he is above-average in a number of important areas should be enough for him to give him a good shot at being a three-down back relatively early in his career.

7. Nick Chubb

NFL Comp: Tyrone Wheatley

Chubb was the de facto thunder to Sony Michel's lightning throughout their time together at Georgia, but the former is hardly a straight-ahead plodder, just like Michel wasn't a change-of-pace scatback. While he is more of a grinder than Michel, Chubb is more than capable of explosive plays (such as

or

from the College Football Playoff). The Bulldogs' second all-time leading rusher, who checks in at a solid 5-11 and 227 pounds, also displayed pretty good athleticism at the NFL Combine (29 reps on the bench, 4.52 speed, 38.5-inch vertical, 128-inch broad). The good thing with Chubb is that his athleticism shows up on the field and belongs to a player whose feet are typically in synch with his eyes. While he can catch the ball when necessary, 31 receptions over his four-year career - including 13 total over his final three seasons - is a pretty clear indication his new team probably should not expect a great deal from him as a receiver. As long as he is drafted with that in mind and lands on a team with a zone-blocking scheme, he should be a solid early-down runner well into his second NFL contract.

8. Mark Walton

NFL Comp: Andre Ellington

Walton is a bit of a forgotten man in this deep running back draft class because his final season came to an end due to an ankle injury in early October that eventually required surgery. As of the NFL Combine in early March, he was still not fully recovered as his test scores don't match up with what he did on the field prior to the injury. In a draft full of trucks and SUV body types, the product of "The U" is a bit of a racecar. His change-of-direction is among the best of the backs I have evaluated in this class. Walton is dependable as well, showing soft hands as a receiver while not recording a fumble over his last two years (299 offensive touches). While short-area speed and quickness are his game, the 202-pounder has more power than one might expect and, as such, is willing and able to run inside. For all of the aforementioned good he brings to the table, there is some bad. He is guilty of dancing in the backfield and will freelance at times, likely believing his natural gifts will overcome whatever he runs into during his search for the big play. His vision and anticipation are also not strong suits, almost where he has to see it first before he believes it. Walton's size makes him a borderline candidate at best for a lead-back role, and one has to wonder if his new team will point to his ankle injury as a reason why he should be more of a complementary back. His best shot at a three-down role would be with a team who can live with its top runner finishing with roughly 12-13 carries and 4-5 receptions per game.

9. Royce Freeman

NFL Comp: D'Onta Foreman

To get a full appreciation of what Foreman is all about, evaluators almost need to go back to his 2015 tape. Why? He suffered a knee injury early in 2016 and hasn't really displayed the same level of explosiveness since. His senior season was a bit of a wash too as Oregon used him primarily inside the tackles. While he did show occasional explosiveness in 2017, it's not like it was back in 2015. Career workload is a concern for him despite his 230-pound frame, as he piled up over 1,000 offensive touches (947 carries). The Ducks didn't really him as much more than a screen and dump-off option, so his ability to play on more than obvious running downs is a question mark at this point. Freeman usually has a good feel for running lanes, has looser hips and can cut more sharply than some might expect for a runner of his size - and there are even times he flashed the 4.54 speed he showed off at the NFL Combine - but he doesn't run like a big back for the most part. If he can ever get back to the way he looked as a sophomore, he could be a Day 2 or early Day 3 steal. If 2016 and 2017 is the new normal for him, he might be hard-pressed to be anything more than a committee back.

10. John Kelly

NFL Comp: Corey Clement

There's probably always going to be a place in the NFL for backs like Kelly. Likely running at about 205 pounds for most of the season, the Detroit native consistently plays bigger and runs tougher than his frame would suggest throughout most of what was a lost season for the Volunteers. There are a number of instances in which he showed the ability to absorb contact and the strength and balance to power through defenders he had no business driving through. Completing his physical profile, Kelly can throw a very effective stiff-arm as well. He needs to improve his technique as a pass blocker, but he seems very comfortable as a receiver. Kelly isn't going to wow many people with his speed and one has to wonder whether or not it was a good idea for him to bulk up to 216 pounds - likely in an effort to prove to evaluators he doesn't need to be a committee back. Like Clement, he may not have much say in the matter. Teams will also have to decide if they want to look past his misdemeanor marijuana possession citation last October. He's a try-hard back who should make his team better, but it's hard to see him being much more than a high-upside backup/emergency starter in the NFL.

11. Bo Scarbrough

NFL Comp: A poor man's Derrick Henry

Anyone wanting a glimpse of what Scarbrough can be only needs to review the 1 1/2 games he played during the 2016 College Football Playoff. At his best, he is a straight-line, tackle-breaking machine who looks and profiles an awful lot like former teammate and Heisman Trophy winner Henry. Scarbrough runs bigger than his 228-pound frame suggests, while his NFL Combine numbers (4.52, 40-inch vertical, 129-inch broad) provide a pretty good indication just how explosive he can be. He has looser hips and the ability to plant his foot better than a lot of backs his size, but his biggest downfall is durability. He runs upright, lacks solid feel/vision and needs excellent blocking in order to be the powerful, early-down complement teams will want him to be, and he offers very little as a receiver beyond being a dump-off option. Still, Scarbrough figures to make some team happy as its preferred option in short yardage and at the goal line at the very least.

12. Kalen Ballage

NFL Comp: Knile Davis

How can a player who is the co-record holder for the most touchdowns in a single game in FBS history (eight total, seven rushing) not even be his college team's best running back? Ballage definitely looks the part (6-1, 228), is highly athletic and an above-average pass-catcher, yet he played second fiddle to backfield mate Demario Richard in his each of the duo's final three seasons on campus. He was even benched at one point in 2017 and only carried the ball 20 times in a game once in his career (no, it didn't come in the aforementioned contest). If he sounds like he may be an underachiever, it seems Arizona State's coaches and NFL scouts might agree. Considering his athletic profile and brushes of greatness, it's fair to wonder if he may not have enjoyed his time as a Sun Devil and/or didn't see eye-to-eye with his coaches because there is a huge disparity between what he was and what he could be. Either way, trying to make excuses for why talented players didn't live up to their potential is usually a losing proposition. Therefore, NFL teams would probably be well-served to draft him as a movable chess piece who can contribute on third down at this point, with the hope his new position coach can harvest his considerable talent in a way his college coaches could not.