The Others 2018 - WRs

[The Football Guru 210]

If you want to know what exactly I'm trying to accomplish with this series of posts, click here and read the intro. Please understand what you see below is not my overall position ranking per se, but a ranking of the players I was able to evaluate given the time I had. With that in mind, here are the WRs as I see them:

1. Calvin Ridley

2. D.J. Moore

3. Courtland Sutton

4. Michael Gallup

NFL Comp: Davante Adams

Adams was a physical receiver who once dominated at all levels (short, intermediate and deep) in the Mountain West Conference at Fresno State - his quarterback was Derek Carr - and eventually developed into a No. 1 receiver in the NFL. Gallup is a better and more complete receiver now than Adams was then, and I believe he can be better than Adams at the pro level as well (although he may fall short statistically given the high probability he won't have a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball). While Gallup isn't where Adams was (or is) in terms of high-pointing the ball and will drop a few he should haul in, he has nice burst off the line of scrimmage and shows the ability to get open at all three levels. Better yet, he turns into a running back after the catch. Because of this, he's probably going to be used more in the short-to-intermediate passing game in the NFL. In a draft that seems to have a bunch of No. 2 and No. 3 types, Gallup is a very good bet to be that second-day draft pick who makes the rest of the league regret passing on him. He should be a very good No. 2 immediately at the very least, and there is enough here to believe he can be his team's top option in 2019 or 2020.

5. Anthony Miller

NFL Comp: Steve Smith (the former Panther and Raven)

There are just some players who are fun to watch, and Miller is one of those guys. But let's be clear: he's more than just eye candy. Think about how many 5-11, 201-pound receivers there are in the league who can bench 225 pounds 22 times with 10 5/8-inch hands. Miller was unable to do any athletic testing at the combine outside of the bench press and is still recovering from a foot fracture that he suffered in his Memphis' Liberty Bowl loss on December 30. The fact he isn't being talked about more is perhaps proof the media - and possibly team evaluators if he slides too far into the second round - rely more heavily on combine numbers than they want the public to believe. While he frustratingly commits some focus drops on relatively easy throws, has some ball security issues and exhibits a bit much upper-body motion when trying to sell a route, he wins 50-50 balls more often than a player his size probably should. His huge hands allow him to haul in some passes most receivers would have no prayer of catching and, while his speed gets knocked by critics, his ability to separate and get behind defenders consistently is impressive. Last but not least, he is as good of a blocker as any wideout in this class. He has plenty of experience playing both outside and inside in college, but he probably projects better in the slot in the NFL. It's not out of the question Miller could end up being his team's top receiver option down the road while working primarily out of the slot (think Doug Baldwin), but he's good enough to serve as his team's second or third option pretty quickly.

6. Christian Kirk

NFL Comp: A slightly quicker Sterling Shepard

Based on his special teams value alone, Kirk is going to be a solid addition to whatever team drafts him. Of course, he brings more to the table than that. Like Shepard, Kirk is probably going to make his name in the NFL as a slot receiver because, despite his reasonably solid build (5-10, 201), he thrives in space - as is the case with most players who excel as punt returners. For someone with 4.47 speed, it's slightly surprising he appears to be more quick than fast on the field. Kirk doesn't sell his routes as much as he should (a coaching point which could easily be corrected), but perhaps his most perplexing issue is his hand placement when receiving the ball. There are more than a handful of instances in the relatively short time I was able to study him in which he tries to catch the ball with his hands on each side of the ball (think clapping) and it appears he defaults to body catching despite the fact he had at least 71 receptions in each of his three seasons at Texas A&M. I'm not trying to say he doesn't have good hands (because he shows an ability to catch balls away from his frame), but rather he doesn't appear to have full confidence in them. To his credit, he does have a good feel against zone coverage, is a plus route-runner and shows some Golden Tate tendencies in his game, so he figures to be one of his quarterback's best friends on third down.

7. Equanimeous St. Brown

NFL Comp: Martavis Bryant

It's not often I dismiss an entire season's worth of film, but I'm not sure using 2017 to evaluate St. Brown makes much sense. (Notre Dame wasn't about to put its offensive fortunes on the arm of Brandon Wimbush.) There's just not too many pro receivers walking the earth quite like St. Brown, who will draw inevitable comparisons to Plaxico Burress because he goes 6-5 and 214 pounds. However, don't make the mistake of assuming he is a jump-ball or possession receiver based on his size. St. Brown won't lift the lid of a defense in the same way Bryant does (or used to do), but he is an effective downfield receiver nonetheless who shows more bend and runs crisper routes than most wideouts his size. To that end, the Irish used him a bunch in the slot. St. Brown also doesn't flinch at the idea of running over the middle despite his angular frame and is capable of getting down low enough to snag a throw near his feet. Despite his father being a two-time Mr. Universe and three-time Mr. World as a weightlifter, St. Brown could stand to add more muscle in order to better defeat the more physical coverage he will start to see in 2018. He doesn't track the ball as well as he should and tips off the arrival of the ball too often, so he is far from a finished product. Regardless, a pro coach is going to love working with him. If he can add some functional muscle and develop a bit more of a "my ball" mentality, the tools are there for this 21-year-old to be something more than a second receiver in the league.

8. James Washington

NFL Comp: Marvin Jones

It's a disservice to Washington to say he's a product of the system. Receivers from spread offenses don't usually post a career average of 19.8 YPC on 226 receptions unless they excel in at least one or two areas that carry over to the NFL. One look at a player with his dimensions (6-1, 205) would suggest he's a run-after-catch beast, but he is instead a master of winning contested catches downfield. His ball-tracking skills are exceptional, and he complements that ability by positioning himself as well as any college receiver to win in those situations downfield. Washington also does a very good job stacking defensive backs once he outmaneuvers them, proving yet again being a great downfield receiver is about more than running a sub-4.4 time in the 40 (his is reportedly 4.54). Like many spread offenses, the Cowboys don't expose their receivers to a full route tree, but Washington does a respectable job of running the routes he was asked to execute, so there is reason to believe he can diversify his receiving portfolio at the next level. At this point, however, he is primarily a deep threat who has probably no better than a 50-50 shot to become much more than that unless he improves his quickness so he can thrive in the short and intermediate levels; he's not a player who projects to play very much in the slot. Even if he has already topped out in terms of his quickness and doesn't improve much as a route-runner, Washington should be a solid second receiver in the league fairly early in his career.

9. Dante Pettis

NFL Comp: Jamison Crowder

The NCAA record-holder with nine career punt return touchdowns, Pettis would get drafted on special teams value alone. The fact he will almost certainly have a long-term future as a possession receiver with the ability to play in the slot at the next level only helps his cause and figures to drive up his value to the point where he get selected higher than more skilled receivers in this draft. Pettis' size (6-1, 186) and return skills would seem to suggest he is a speed demon, but the opposite is actually true. The University of Washington product wins by being one of the sharper route-runners in this class and utilizing impressive short-area quickness. He's not a receiver NFL teams will want to put in contested-ball situations very often, but he'll outwork his opponent more often than not in those spots. He figures to struggle against physical corners in the pros - at least initially - so he may need to live in the slot early on while he adds some muscle and tries to improve his speed. Like Crowder (also a great returner in college, which is why he is such a great comp), it's not hard to imagine Pettis emerging as a very good No. 3 receiver right away before settling into a No. 2 role.

10. DaeSean Hamilton

NFL Comp: Steve Johnson

In a draft that offers a bunch of boom-or-bust types at his position, Hamilton projects as a set-it-and-forget-it slot receiver. Hamilton has flown under the radar most of his college career in part because he is an average to slightly above-average talent who had to share the field with superfreaks Chris Godwin, Saquon Barkley and Mike Gesicki for part or all of his stay in Happy Valley. His size (6-1, 203) and play speed are unimposing, but he makes up for it by being a good route-runner and winning consistently in contested-catch situations. The best thing about him as a prospect, however, may be his approach and his intangibles. Hamilton understands how to use his body and get open against man coverage, sit down against zone coverage and may as well be "the coaches' pet" given how many positive things the Penn State staff has said about him. With the exception of being known as a team leader and his unique take on route-running, Johnson used a similar profile to carve out a fairly nice career in the league. Hamilton could follow a similar path.

11. D.J. Chark

NFL Comp: Brice Butler

As most draft followers already know, Chark was a relative unknown nationally before showing well in the Senior Bowl (5-160-1) and blowing up the NFL Combine (4.34 speed, 40-inch vertical, 129-inch broad). The LSU product didn't register a single catch through his first two seasons, so it is fair to wonder if he has really even begun to approach his ceiling yet. With that said, he plays every bit as fast as his timed speed and should begin his NFL career as a field stretcher. Chark showed some ability to track the ball in contested-catch situations, although as a player with 66 career receptions (40 in 2017), it is hard to tell if he has a knack for doing it or if his success in that area amounted to a couple of isolated incidents. It seems unlikely he'll become more than just a big-play threat, but the size, speed and explosiveness he possesses is always going to have a place in the NFL. Like Butler, it may take a while before teams realize what they have in him or are willing to let him play a more substantial role.

 

[listen2me 23 1,533]

I like Miller and Kirk out of this group