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Instant Fantasy Analysis - QB Josh Allen, Bills


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#1 The Football Guru

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Posted 26 April 2018 - 07:09 PM

As soon as Buffalo completed its trade with Tampa Bay for the No. 7 overall pick, this selection became a previous obvious one. In order for quarterback to succeed in western New York during the winter, he needs arm strength, and Allen has more of that than any player in the draft. The Wyoming product isn't ready to be the Week 1 starter and would be well-served to play behind AJ McCarron for most of the 2018 season to work on his footwork, which will help address the accuracy issues critics seem to believe he cannot overcome. Allen is not necessarily going to tear it up as a rusher, but he can run quarterback power like Cam Newton does and Carson Wentz did in college. Also working in his favor is the fact he has some bigger receivers to throw to in Buffalo, which should also help him with some of the aforementioned accuracy issues in the same way it has helped Newton. Allen doesn't have much redraft appeal, and he figures to go after the rest of the "Big Five" quarterbacks in this draft in dynasty formats.


#2 tanatastic

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Posted 26 April 2018 - 07:19 PM

QB, not RB.

#3 The Football Guru

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Posted 26 April 2018 - 07:21 PM

QB, not RB.

 

Yeah, I didn't make the change with my cut-and-paste from the previous pick. I'm a moron, Suh me  :D  :P



#4 tanatastic

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Posted 26 April 2018 - 07:22 PM

 
Yeah, I didn't make the change with my cut-and-paste from the previous pick. I'm a moron, Suh me  :D  :P

Kick you in the face or step on you? I like you bro, I wouldnt do that.

#5 The Football Guru

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Posted 26 April 2018 - 07:48 PM

Kick you in the face or step on you? I like you bro, I wouldnt do that.

 

I think the custom around here is walking up to my door and punching me in the face. Or asking about the can size of a significant other or mine.



#6 tanatastic

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Posted 26 April 2018 - 08:22 PM

 
I think the custom around here is walking up to my door and punching me in the face. Or asking about the can size of a significant other or mine.

What GC alias are you? Busted, out with it.

#7 The Football Guru

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Posted 26 April 2018 - 08:32 PM

What GC alias are you? Busted, out with it.

 

:ninja:



#8 listen2me 23

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Posted 27 April 2018 - 06:48 AM

Meh I dont hate Allen but they should have taken Rosen.

#9 Kopy

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Posted 27 April 2018 - 07:22 AM

I think the custom around here is walking up to my door and punching me in the face. Or asking about the can size of a significant other or mine.

Man, your pretty out of touch.

You gotta ring the doorbell first!
LOL
<p>......SEATTLE SEAHAWKS......      Future Dynasty

#10 The Football Guru

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Posted 27 April 2018 - 03:40 PM

Man, your pretty out of touch.

You gotta ring the doorbell first!
LOL

:doh:



#11 titans&bucs&bearsohmy!

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Posted 28 April 2018 - 03:32 AM

Meh I dont hate Allen but they should have taken Rosen.


I dunno. Rosen is quite a doosh. I dont think he and buffalo would get along well.

I like Allen a lot, but they will have to be patient.

#12 seafoam1

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Posted 28 April 2018 - 05:18 AM

I dunno. Rosen is quite a doosh. I dont think he and buffalo would get along well.

I like Allen a lot, but they will have to be patient.

I can't put my finger on it exactly but when I hear Rosen in interviews his words just come across like he is above reproach. On NFL radio he mentiomed his goal is to be the greatest QB in the history of football. Right up there with Brady and Rodgers. Shouldn't his goal be right now to learn the Cardinals playbook and be either the best backup QB or contending QB in Arizona for the beginning of the year?

#13 titans&bucs&bearsohmy!

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Posted 28 April 2018 - 05:24 AM

I can't put my finger on it exactly but when I hear Rosen in interviews his words just come across like he is above reproach. On NFL radio he mentiomed his goal is to be the greatest QB in the history of football. Right up there with Brady and Rodgers. Shouldn't his goal be right now to learn the Cardinals playbook and be either the best backup QB or contending QB in Arizona for the beginning of the year?


Oh he went on and on about how he is going to show the nine teams that didnt pick him that they made a terrible mistake.

Not like how people always talk about getting passed over. He sounded really angry about it.

I have a hard time seeing this guy overcoming any adversity and leading anyone to be honest.

#14 seafoam1

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Posted 28 April 2018 - 05:41 AM

Oh he went on and on about how he is going to show the nine teams that didnt pick him that they made a terrible mistake.

Not like how people always talk about getting passed over. He sounded really angry about it.

I have a hard time seeing this guy overcoming any adversity and leading anyone to be honest.

Exactly. He was genuinly pissed off. That display was a complete and utter cutdown of the other players and team decisions that went before him. It was as if the move by Arizona to go get him did not even matter to him.

If somehow Bradford stays healthy this year it could be a long wait for the greatest QB of all time to start his first game in the NFL.

#15 listen2me 23

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Posted 28 April 2018 - 10:48 AM

I dunno. Rosen is quite a doosh. I dont think he and buffalo would get along well.

I like Allen a lot, but they will have to be patient.

Buffalo would like a guy who can play QB for once in the last 20 years.  I think they would get over his personality if he makes throws.  

 

I don't hate Allen.  But he will have to learn how to be accurate and how to be on time with his throws and not rely on his arm.  I don't love that as a starting point.  He obviously has a ton of upside if he does improve there.  



#16 seafoam1

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Posted 28 April 2018 - 11:43 AM

Buffalo would like a guy who can play QB for once in the last 20 years.  I think they would get over his personality if he makes throws.  

 

I don't hate Allen.  But he will have to learn how to be accurate and how to be on time with his throws and not rely on his arm.  I don't love that as a starting point.  He obviously has a ton of upside if he does improve there.  

I think Rosen could be good over there in Arizona but there is definitely concern about this guy's big mouth off the field and in social media including political shots at the president. And I don't blame teams for avoiding it. Some folks will say "who cares about any of this?", but his love with speaking out in public and his concussions this past season just make some teams look and say, why bother?  He will be fodder for the press if he is not great and keeps saying "this is who I am and this is what I act like, deal with it." 

 

There is an article that lists a few reasons why teams may have avoided him. Here is what they put down:

 

October 2015 — Hot tub Rosen
Rosen’s dorm room when he was a freshman included a hot tub and there were a few social media posts to go along with it. (Source being Rosen sending out pics online of him and some chick who looks like she is wearing nothing but a t-shirt (mom should be proud of that) in the hot tub)
 
April 2016 – (Expletive) Trump hat
Rosen took to Instagram again for his latest controversy, this time sporting a hat that 
read “(Expletive) Trump” while he was golfing on a Donald Trump golf course. Rosen would delete the post.
 
May 2016 – Calls out UCLA
Upon seeing the news that his school had signed a $280 million shoe deal with Under Armour, 
Rosen took to Instagram to criticize the news.
 
November 2016 – Ruled out after shoulder injury
Rosen would only play in six games in 2016, missing the rest of the season 
due to a right shoulder injury. Rosen had surgery done on the shoulder to repair soft-tissue damage.
 
August 2017 – Another shot at NCAA amateurism
Rosen once again spoke out against the NCAA amateurism rule in an interview with Bleacher Report.
 
October 2017 – First concussion
Rosen suffered a concussion in the eighth game of the year against Washington. 
He missed one start and played the rest of the regular season.
 
November 2017 – Second concussion
In the season finale against Cal, Rosen had his second concussion of the season and would sit out the rest of the game.
 
December 2017 – Sits out bowl game
Still dealing with concussion symptoms, Rosen sat out his team’s bowl game against Kansas State. He declared for the NFL Draft.
 
April 2018 – Wants to win the most Super Bowls ever
In an interview with ESPN, Rosen stated how much greatness he really wants to achieve in the NFL.
"I want to be great — in everything I do. As far as football, I always looked up to Kellen Moore of Boise State. 
I thought it was the coolest thing that he was the winningest QB of all time. I thought that was a cool word: winningest. 
So I want to be the winningest QB in NFL history. I want to win the most games and most championships. 
I’d say six titles, but if Tom Brady gets six, I’ll say seven"
 
April 2018 – Not shy about taking shots at other quarterbacks
When speaking about the adversity he has faced in his career and being ranked No. 2, 
Rosen wasn’t afraid to reference other quarterbacks to make his point.
 
Arizona wants to deal with it, which is fine. But for him to be pissed off and condescending to players and teams on draft day is garbage. He hasn't played a down and is already all over the news with his attitude.


#17 listen2me 23

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Posted 29 April 2018 - 07:24 AM

I understand what he has said. But if one guy camnot thrown it into lake erie then ill roll the dice with the better passer with a big mouth.

Kids can grown up. It happens all the time in the nfl. Sometimes it does not.

Allen could be good but he will need a lot of polish.

#18 Ray_T

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 11:23 AM

I think if the team is disciplined enough to let him sit for the majority (if not all) of his rookie season while they resolve his footwork, he will be okay.

 

problem with this kind of prospect is there is always so much pressure to play right away, and I do think you can ruin a prospect that way. 

 

If he has mechanical issues, you need to practice to the point where you dont need to think about it.   THAT takes a lot of time.     Add that to the fact he has to learn a new playbook and all the reads that come with it, I'd suggest the learning curve is steep.   

 

Make no mistake about it, the learning curve is steep anyways, but it's worse for him because of the above mentioned points.

 

Sitting a year like Goff did would serve him well I think.

I understand what he has said. But if one guy camnot thrown it into lake erie then ill roll the dice with the better passer with a big mouth.

Kids can grown up. It happens all the time in the nfl. Sometimes it does not.

Allen could be good but he will need a lot of polish.


3 keeper, 12 team league Standard scoring with QB getting -1 pt for an interception & fumbles 5 points for a defensive safety & 6 points for a defensive TD.

Start 2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Kicker, one Def/Sp Tms

 

 

 

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#19 seafoam1

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 11:58 AM

I think if the team is disciplined enough to let him sit for the majority (if not all) of his rookie season while they resolve his footwork, he will be okay.
 

I heard a bunch of input from NFL ex coaches that his innacuracy is footwork based and that it can be fixed fairly easily as opposed to other QBs that are innacurate for other reasons. It's more about Allen incorporating the changes for them to become natural to him. That is why they are all saying he needs a year or two before he gets on the field.

#20 The Football Guru

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 12:39 PM

I heard a bunch of input from NFL ex coaches that his innacuracy is footwork based and that it can be fixed fairly easily as opposed to other QBs that are innacurate for other reasons. It's more about Allen incorporating the changes for them to become natural to him. That is why they are all saying he needs a year or two before he gets on the field.

 

Kind of the same deal with Lamar Jackson (footwork), although their mechanics fail them for different reasons. Allen will overstride at times, while Jackson's feet are sometimes too close together when he's about ready to throw. Both can be fixed, but it's kind of like learning a bit too late in life that your feet need to be shoulder-width apart when shooting a basketball. It's hard to unlearn what you've been allowed to do for most of your athletic career.



#21 Ray_T

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 04:46 PM

 

Kind of the same deal with Lamar Jackson (footwork), although their mechanics fail them for different reasons. Allen will overstride at times, while Jackson's feet are sometimes too close together when he's about ready to throw. Both can be fixed, but it's kind of like learning a bit too late in life that your feet need to be shoulder-width apart when shooting a basketball. It's hard to unlearn what you've been allowed to do for most of your athletic career.

I fully agree.  When it's natural to do things a certain way because you have done it for your whole life, it's hard.   you have to essentially unlearn everything.   Sometimes that's actually harder than learning something from scratch.


3 keeper, 12 team league Standard scoring with QB getting -1 pt for an interception & fumbles 5 points for a defensive safety & 6 points for a defensive TD.

Start 2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Kicker, one Def/Sp Tms

 

 

 

Also expert Fly Fisherman and story teller.


#22 seafoam1

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 05:25 PM

Sometimes that's actually harder than learning something from scratch.


That's true. But for someone whose goal his "whole life" is to be a quality NFL QB, I would think that $20 million+ and a year or 2 of hands on coaching to mainly fix only that, that person could accomplish the change. But only if they are dedicated. That's why teams interview the players and judge them on their dedication. We will see though.

#23 Gepetto

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 11:21 PM

I heard a bunch of input from NFL ex coaches that his innacuracy is footwork based and that it can be fixed fairly easily as opposed to other QBs that are innacurate for other reasons. It's more about Allen incorporating the changes for them to become natural to him. That is why they are all saying he needs a year or two before he gets on the field.

 

I don't see how it takes a year or two to fix footwork.  They should be able to fix his footwork in a week or less of practice, if that's really even his issue. 



#24 seafoam1

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Posted 03 May 2018 - 12:03 AM

 
I don't see how it takes a year or two to fix footwork.  They should be able to fix his footwork in a week or less of practice, if that's really even his issue. 

Maybe this is true. Couple guys on NFL radio (Jim Miller and Pat Kirwan) were commenting on how Allen improved over 3 days at the senior bowl practices from the coaching around his footwork. Then an artcle mentioned the following:
"For some like Wyomings quarterback Josh Allen, the game went much better than the practices went. Allen was dealing in the second half, throwing with better touch and placement than most of his tape showcased."

Who knows how things work out for all these guys? I like Allen the best out of this group. But that doesn't really matter.

#25 titans&bucs&bearsohmy!

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Posted 03 May 2018 - 02:58 AM

That's true. But for someone whose goal his "whole life" is to be a quality NFL QB, I would think that $20 million+ and a year or 2 of hands on coaching to mainly fix only that, that person could accomplish the change. But only if they are dedicated. That's why teams interview the players and judge them on their dedication. We will see though.


I dont see how youve been playing football since you were a child and never bothered to figure it out and fix it before you became a professional. I mean, he has had coaches for a decade or so.

#26 The Football Guru

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Posted 03 May 2018 - 03:26 AM

I dont see how youve been playing football since you were a child and never bothered to figure it out and fix it before you became a professional. I mean, he has had coaches for a decade or so.

 

A lot of coaches at the lower levels are enablers to a degree. In all the years I've watched college football, I've never heard a coach say, "Timmy would play if he could get his feet right." I know I've never head a high school coach say it.

 

The fact spread offenses have taken over college football only has made the problem worse since a number of throws involve the quarterback catching the ball out of shotgun and firing it out to his WR on a tunnel screen with the emphasis being on getting rid of the ball ASAP. 



#27 The Football Guru

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Posted 03 May 2018 - 03:31 AM

 

I don't see how it takes a year or two to fix footwork.  They should be able to fix his footwork in a week or less of practice, if that's really even his issue. 

 

Footwork shouldn't be that hard to change, but it's that whole thing about how players tend to revert back to old habits when the action is live. Plus, some of these kids are likely headstrong and/or stubborn.

 

Maybe this is true. Couple guys on NFL radio (Jim Miller and Pat Kerwin) were commenting on how Allen improved over 3 days at the senior bowl practices from the coaching around his footwork. Then an artcle mentioned the following:
"For some like Wyomings quarterback Josh Allen, the game went much better than the practices went. Allen was dealing in the second half, throwing with better touch and placement than most of his tape showcased."

Who knows how things work out for all these guys? I like Allen the best out of this group. But that doesn't really matter.

 

I watched the Senior Bowl practices and saw the same thing. FWIW, QBs know they aren't going to get hit in Senior Bowl practices and the coverages are pretty basic (Cover 1, 2 and 3 if memory serves) with no blitzing and no stunts.



#28 titans&bucs&bearsohmy!

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Posted 03 May 2018 - 03:31 AM

 
A lot of coaches at the lower levels are enablers to a degree. In all the years I've watched college football, I've never heard a coach say, "Timmy would play if he could get his feet right." I know I've never head a high school coach say it.
 
The fact spread offenses have taken over college football only has made the problem worse since a number of throws involve the quarterback catching the ball out of shotgun and firing it out to his WR on a tunnel screen with the emphasis being on getting rid of the ball ASAP. 


If it was me, and I was playing college ball, Id damn sure be trying to improve those things. Asking the coaches for help. Watch videos and practice if thats all youve got.

Most of these guys go to camps and such all the time in the summer too. Just always strikes me as odd.

#29 The Football Guru

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Posted 03 May 2018 - 03:37 AM

If it was me, and I was playing college ball, Id damn sure be trying to improve those things. Asking the coaches for help. Watch videos and practice if thats all youve got.

Most of these guys go to camps and such all the time in the summer too. Just always strikes me as odd.

 

Yeah, you'd think. I don't know if that falls under the 20/hr limit coaches have with their players, but you'd think QBs could find help "off the clock" if they really wanted to.

 

Then again, I remember asking my HS coach if I could stay after practice one time to work on whatever it was that was keeping my out of the starting lineup. He told me in so many words there was nothing I could do change my fate. (As you might have guessed, I never felt the need to ask again.)

 

I often think about my HS experiences when I see players fail to live up to their potential and how many of them had an experience like mine where the coach basically turned their back on him.



#30 seafoam1

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Posted 03 May 2018 - 03:11 PM

 
Yeah, you'd think. I don't know if that falls under the 20/hr limit coaches have with their players, but you'd think QBs could find help "off the clock" if they really wanted to.
 
Then again, I remember asking my HS coach if I could stay after practice one time to work on whatever it was that was keeping my out of the starting lineup. He told me in so many words there was nothing I could do change my fate. (As you might have guessed, I never felt the need to ask again.)
 
I often think about my HS experiences when I see players fail to live up to their potential and how many of them had an experience like mine where the coach basically turned their back on him.

There is a lot of this all over sports. In the end, not many QBs go into the pros ready to be great on day 1. Very rare. Luck was one of those guys ready, it's a shame for all football fans about his injuries. But look at someone like Steve Young, dude was horrific in Tampa. And Rodgers spents a few years sitting behind Favre who was pretty bad himself when he started out. Atlanta traded him away they felt so good about him. Guys like Allen don't come along often. He was worth a shot especially by a northwest bad weather team.

#31 The Football Guru

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Posted 08 May 2018 - 09:01 PM

Context for Josh Allen's completion percentage among other things:

 

https://www.wkbw.com...g-in-josh-allen



#32 seafoam1

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Posted 08 May 2018 - 09:23 PM

Context for Josh Allen's completion percentage among other things:
 
https://www.wkbw.com...g-in-josh-allen

This is why he has great opportunity to be a franchise QB but will most likely need time to get there. If he plays early this year, I hope both him and the team are patient of bad plays. If so, I firmly believe he will be the best QB drafted this year. It just may take a couple years to show is all.

#33 listen2me 23

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Posted 09 May 2018 - 09:28 AM

Allen is your typical strong armed rookie QB. Lots of arm talent but tons of bad habits. Leaves pocket to early fot no reason. Late with throws relying on arm. Doesnt set his feet many times.

History isnt on his side much.

But he is obviously boom or bust depending on what can be fixed.

For the Bills sake I hope he find improvemsnt and isnt another Kyler Boller.

#34 seafoam1

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Posted 09 May 2018 - 11:06 AM

Allen is your typical strong armed rookie QB. Lots of arm talent but tons of bad habits. Leaves pocket to early fot no reason. Late with throws relying on arm. Doesnt set his feet many times.

History isnt on his side much.

But he is obviously boom or bust depending on what can be fixed.

For the Bills sake I hope he find improvemsnt and isnt another Kyler Boller.

I find it hard to believe there is any such thing as a typical QB in the NFL.You can only compare them after their careers are over.

The majority of QBs in the NFL have flaws, and most rookies have even more. There have been strong armed QBs with flaws that were very successful (Brett Favre) and those that were not so successful (Geoff George). This is the same for guys with arms that are not so strong.

I suggest that all QBs are atypical, and it simply depends on the individual and his coaching that determines if he will be very good or not (injuries aside).

Hell, Brady was drafted in what round? How long did Rodgers sit on the bench? What did Steve Young do in Tampa? Favre was traded away from Atlanta at what age? What was Alex Smith's win/loss record in KC?

#35 listen2me 23

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Posted 09 May 2018 - 11:34 AM

I find it hard to believe there is any such thing as a typical QB in the NFL.You can only compare them after their careers are over.

The majority of QBs in the NFL have flaws, and most rookies have even more. There have been strong armed QBs with flaws that were very successful (Brett Favre) and those that were not so successful (Geoff George). This is the same for guys with arms that are not so strong.

I suggest that all QBs are atypical, and it simply depends on the individual and his coaching that determines if he will be very good or not (injuries aside).

Hell, Brady was drafted in what round? How long did Rodgers sit on the bench? What did Steve Young do in Tampa? Favre was traded away from Atlanta at what age? What was Alex Smith's win/loss record in KC?


Obviously.

The point was he is your typical strong armed rookie who scouts fell in love with his arm talent. Some guys improve some guys do not. But a lot of strong armed QBs come in with more flaws than others because their arm strength created bad habits. They rely on their arm and dont have their feet under them always. Or are late with throws because their ball speed can make up for it a bit.

But if he didnt have a rocket arm he wouldnt of sniffed the 1st round.

#36 seafoam1

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Posted 09 May 2018 - 11:48 AM


The point was he is your typical strong armed rookie who scouts fell in love with his arm talent. Some guys improve some guys do not. But a lot of strong armed QBs come in with more flaws than others because their arm strength created bad habits.

But if he didnt have a rocket arm he wouldnt of sniffed the 1st round.


So Allen was the only strong armed QB in college football last year that could have been drafted? Interesting. And year after year every strong armed QB in the draft goes in the top 10? If not, then why not?

#37 listen2me 23

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Posted 09 May 2018 - 11:50 AM

So Allen was the only strong armed QB in college football last year that could have been drafted? Interesting. And year after year every strong armed QB in the draft goes in the top 10? If not, then why not?


I have no idea your point.

Yeah he was the only guy with unique arm talent in this draft. If he didnt separate himself with his arm talent he wouldnt have went so high.

But afain you have lost me as to your point or what you are trying to argue.

#38 seafoam1

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Posted 09 May 2018 - 11:55 AM

I have no idea your point.

Yeah he was the only guy with unique arm talent in this draft. If he didnt separate himself with his arm talent he wouldnt have went so high.

But afain you have lost me as to your point or what you are trying to argue.

You inferred that teams will draft strong armed QBs high in the draft because they have strong arms. Yet I'm pretty sure that there have been countless strong armed college QBs that never played a snap in the NFL. So logically it must be more than just having a strong arm that attracts teams to want to draft a QB in the top 10 of the draft.

#39 listen2me 23

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Posted 09 May 2018 - 11:57 AM

You inferred that teams will draft strong armed QBs high in the draft because they have strong arms. Yet I'm pretty sure tgat there have been countless strong armed college QBs that never played a snap in the NFL. So logically it must be more than just having a strong arm that attracts teams to want to draft a QB in the top 10 of the draft.


You are being a weirdo and trying to speak in absolutes.

Arguing just to argue.

#40 seafoam1

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Posted 09 May 2018 - 12:01 PM

You are being a weirdo and trying to speak in absolutes.

Arguing just to argue.


You are making generalized statements based upon no logic. You are just saying things to just say them.