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The Football Guru

Rookie Draft Rankings - Top 50

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For those of you getting an early start on your rookie drafts, here is my top 50. Let me know if you need me to go deeper. I am planning to update my dynasty rankings (and have them posted) no later than this weekend.

 

OVR Pos Player Team
1 RB Saquon Barkley Giants
2 RB Ronald Jones II Buccaneers
3 RB Rashaad Penny Seahawks
4 RB Derrius Guice Redskins
5 RB Sony Michel Patriots
6 RB Nick Chubb Browns
7 RB Kerryon Johnson Lions
8 RB Royce Freeman Broncos
9 WR D.J. Moore Panthers
10 WR Calvin Ridley Falcons
11 WR Michael Gallup Cowboys
12 WR Christian Kirk Cardinals
13 WR Anthony Miller Bears
14 TE Mike Gesicki Dolphins
15 QB Lamar Jackson Ravens
16 WR Courtland Sutton Broncos
17 TE Hayden Hurst Ravens
18 QB Sam Darnold Jets
19 QB Josh Rosen Cardinals
20 WR DaeSean Hamilton Broncos
21 WR J'Mon Moore Packers
22 WR James Washington Steelers
23 WR Antonio Callaway Browns
24 QB Baker Mayfield Browns
25 QB Josh Allen Bills
26 WR Equanimeous St. Brown Packers
27 RB Nyheim Hines Colts
28 RB Kalen Ballage Dolphins
29 WR D.J. Chark Jaguars
30 TE Ian Thomas Panthers
31 RB Jordan Wilkins Colts
32 RB Mark Walton Bengals
33 RB John Kelly Rams
34 TE Mark Andrews Ravens
35 TE Dallas Goedert Eagles
36 WR Dante Pettis 49ers
37 RB Justin Jackson Chargers
38 WR Tre'Quan Smith Saints
39 WR Marcell Ateman Raiders
40 WR Keke Coutee Texans
41 TE Dalton Schultz Cowboys
42 RB Bo Scarbrough Cowboys
43 RB Chase Edmonds Cardinals
44 TE Christopher Herndon IV Jets
45 WR Jaleel Scott Ravens
46 TE Jordan Akins Texans
47 QB Mason Rudolph Steelers
48 WR Deon Cain Colts
49 WR Allen Lazard Jaguars
50 WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling Packers
EDIT: I do anticipate making some slight changes to this list after taking more time to consider everything.

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I think Galllup should be the number one wr.

 

Great llist

 

It's a non ppr right?

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Quick question for you in terms of dynasty. What guys are you so-so on this year, but next year you'd be all in on?

Courtland Sutton for example. You have him at 16 now, and he is only gonna be #3 wr this year at best. But do to payroll, next year he could be the #1 wr.

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Kirk projects as a solid slot receiver and the #1 WR after Fitz retires. I think he'll develop into a player that's similar to Landry. In a dynasty I'm high on him. I also think the Lions found their RB of the future in Kerryon Johnson. He was the focal point at Auburn and was as tough as they come. He played through injuries last year, and in a college age where sitting out healthy late in the year is becoming the normal, it shows his competitiveness.

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I know some don't like it, but I do like the pick of R Penny to the Hawks.

 

And he should be rb1 starting week one.

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Forgive me posting the same comment in two different threads, but it kind of fits in both places, but...

 

I wouldn't be so eager to jump on Jones in the top 3 in rookie drafts. The Bucs do like Peyton Barber and he will hold the starting job until Jones forces his way in. Even if (or when), he does, Barber will still get plenty of touches. Also, most importantly, expect Barber to get the goal line carries.

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Just another thought, it's possible that the Ravens are finally seeing Flacco as the mediocre to below average QB I've always thought he's been... but if not, he's still under contract for 4 seasons. I don't know if I'd put Jackson as the top QB if he may not play for 3 seasons. Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold, and Allen all have a much faster track to start starting and if I'm using an early 2nd round rookie pick on a QB, I'm going to use it on someone who's going to play sooner rather than later... especially more so if it's only a 1 QB league.

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I think Galllup should be the number one wr.

 

Great llist

 

It's a non ppr right?

PPR.

 

Gallup will likely be my top redraft WR. I just don't how WR-friendly that Dallas offense will be long-term.

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Quick question for you in terms of dynasty. What guys are you so-so on this year, but next year you'd be all in on?

Courtland Sutton for example. You have him at 16 now, and he is only gonna be #3 wr this year at best. But do to payroll, next year he could be the #1 wr.

Moore, Ridley, Jackson, Gesicki and Kirk are all guys I kind of like this who I think could do very well in 2019. My low ranking of Sutton has to do with him not being a good route-runner and not utilizing his size advantage often enough.

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Kirk projects as a solid slot receiver and the #1 WR after Fitz retires. I think he'll develop into a player that's similar to Landry. In a dynasty I'm high on him. I also think the Lions found their RB of the future in Kerryon Johnson. He was the focal point at Auburn and was as tough as they come. He played through injuries last year, and in a college age where sitting out healthy late in the year is becoming the normal, it shows his competitiveness.

I may have to bump up Kirk a bit. He was a tough eval with his QB situation at TAMU. Johnson has Blount now and may have Riddick long-term.

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Forgive me posting the same comment in two different threads, but it kind of fits in both places, but...

 

I wouldn't be so eager to jump on Jones in the top 3 in rookie drafts. The Bucs do like Peyton Barber and he will hold the starting job until Jones forces his way in. Even if (or when), he does, Barber will still get plenty of touches. Also, most importantly, expect Barber to get the goal line carries.

I'm expecting Barber to play a role early on. I just don't think TB will want to keep Jones off the field very much after a while. I wasn't expecting to like Jones prior to profiling him.

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I'm expecting Barber to play a role early on. I just don't think TB will want to keep Jones off the field very much after a while. I wasn't expecting to like Jones prior to profiling him.

 

I assure you, that in a sincerity, I hope you're 100% right. LOL

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PPR.

Gallup will likely be my top redraft WR. I just don't how WR-friendly that Dallas offense will be long-term.

Thanks for the update.

 

Great job.

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Just another thought, it's possible that the Ravens are finally seeing Flacco as the mediocre to below average QB I've always thought he's been... but if not, he's still under contract for 4 seasons. I don't know if I'd put Jackson as the top QB if he may not play for 3 seasons. Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold, and Allen all have a much faster track to start starting and if I'm using an early 2nd round rookie pick on a QB, I'm going to use it on someone who's going to play sooner rather than later... especially more so if it's only a 1 QB league.

 

I understand the thought. Flacco is already 33 though and has been league-average at best for the last three years. He is due over $18 M next year and over $20 M in 2020, so the transition to Jackson will be happening sooner than later. Three members of the offensive staff have worked with either Vick or Kaepernick, so I like the commitment the Ravens are making. I also feel Jackson is more complete prospect now than either of those guys were coming out of college, so obviously I think the upside is huge.

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I understand the thought. Flacco is already 33 though and has been league-average at best for the last three years. He is due over $18 M next year and over $20 M in 2020, so the transition to Jackson will be happening sooner than later. Three members of the offensive staff have worked with either Vick or Kaepernick, so I like the commitment the Ravens are making. I also feel Jackson is more complete prospect now than either of those guys were coming out of college, so obviously I think the upside is huge.

 

Fair enough. I think we agreed in another post about the upside of this class of QB overall wasn't all that great, so I certainly understand the mindset. If I were in a dynasty league, I would be looking to draft 1 RB in the first and trading out of every other pick to hopefully acquire more picks next year. This looks like a very underwhelming draft class for fantasy.

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Fair enough. I think we agreed in another post about the upside of this class of QB overall wasn't all that great, so I certainly understand the mindset. If I were in a dynasty league, I would be looking to draft 1 RB in the first and trading out of every other pick to hopefully acquire more picks next year. This looks like a very underwhelming draft class for fantasy.

 

I'm sure some moron from my experts' dynasty league will find a way to find out how I feel before our draft, but my goal is to come away with a RB at 1.03 (like Jones), Gesicki and Lamar. The funny thing is in this league, I'm pretty set at each of those positions. But given how often I find a starting WR off waivers every year and this draft class didn't really produce much in the way of alpha WRs, I'm looking toward the future.

 

And yes, I agree this QB class isn't anything special IMO. I love Jackson's upside for fantasy purposes, but I understand it is merely upside at this point.

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I think KeKe could be a great sleeper or free agent pick up. By the end of the year he will be the #2 Wr for the Texans.

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I think KeKe could be a great sleeper or free agent pick up. By the end of the year he will be the #2 Wr for the Texans.

You think he's moving ahead of Will Fuller?

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Our draft starts the monday after the nfl draft and we just finished this afternoon. 35 roster spots, ppr, pretty standard positions and scoring.

 

 

 

1.01 Scary Monsters Barkley, Saquon NYG RB 9:31:52 a.m.
1.02 FIGHTING COCKS Guice, Derrius WAS RB 9:33:01 a.m.
1.03 Llama Sutra Jones, Ronald TBB RB 3:49:16 p.m.
1.04 Miller Genuine Draft Picks Chubb, Nick CLE RB 3:52:29 p.m.
1.05 Fun With Dak and Jane Michel, Sony NEP RB 5:48:31 p.m.
1.06 Miller Genuine Draft Picks Penny, Rashaad SEA RB 6:25:05 p.m.
1.07 Miller Genuine Draft Picks Moore, D.J. CAR WR 6:25:12 p.m.
1.08 Angry Pirates Kirk, Christian ARI WR 6:25:12 p.m.
1.09 Spanked Monkeys Ridley, Calvin ATL WR 7:31:09 p.m.
1.10 Llama Sutra Freeman, Royce DEN RB 8:28:22 p.m.
1.11 MTSkibum Johnson, Kerryon DET RB 9:49:50 p.m.
1.12 MTSkibum Sutton, Courtland DEN WR 10:11:09 p.m.
2.01 MTSkibum Gallup, Michael DAL WR 10:15:46 p.m.
2.02 Las Vegas Gamblers Washington, James PIT WR 10:39:53 p.m.
2.03 Llama Sutra Jackson, Lamar BAL QB 11:05:45 p.m.
2.04 Miller Genuine Draft Picks Miller, Anthony CHI WR 11:09:26 p.m.
2.05 Fun With Dak and Jane Pettis, Dante SFO WR 11:50:01 p.m.
2.06 FIGHTING COCKS Rosen, Josh ARI QB 12:33:07 a.m.
2.07 Miller Genuine Draft Picks Gesicki, Mike MIA TE 12:34:07 a.m.
2.08 Miller Genuine Draft Picks Mayfield, Baker CLE QB 12:37:30 a.m.
2.09 Spanked Monkeys Goedert, Dallas PHI TE 2:06:41 a.m.
2.10 MTSkibum Hines, Nyheim IND RB 7:53:08 a.m.
2.11 MTSkibum Smith, Tre'Quan NOS WR 7:53:35 a.m.
2.12 Scary Monsters Ballage, Kalen MIA RB 9:09:55 a.m.
3.01 Miller Genuine Draft Picks Chark, D.J. JAC WR 9:46:32 a.m.
3.02 FIGHTING COCKS Darnold, Sam NYJ QB 11:13:09 a.m.
3.03 Miller Genuine Draft Picks Callaway, Antonio CLE WR 11:21:30 a.m.
3.04 MTSkibum Walton, Mark CIN RB 12:44:28 p.m.
3.05 Fun With Dak and Jane Jackson, Justin LAC RB 12:44:28 p.m.
3.06 Fun With Dak and Jane Cain, Deon IND WR 12:44:28 p.m.
3.07 MTSkibum St. Brown, Equanimeous GBP WR 12:55:23 p.m.
3.08 Dallas WOLFPACK Kelly, John LAR RB 2:17:53 p.m.
3.09 Spanked Monkeys Allen, Josh BUF QB 2:47:38 p.m.
3.10 Miller Genuine Draft Picks Hurst, Hayden BAL TE 3:30:26 p.m.
3.11 Miller Genuine Draft Picks Andrews, Mark BAL TE 3:32:39 p.m.
3.12 Miller Genuine Draft Picks Samuels, Jaylen PIT RB 3:34:36 p.m.
4.01 Fun With Dak and Jane Hamilton, DaeSean DEN WR 3:34:36 p.m.
4.02 Miller Genuine Draft Picks Fountain, Daurice IND WR 3:37:05 p.m.
4.03 Llama Sutra Scarbrough, Bo DAL RB 9:22:17 p.m.
4.04 MTSkibum Lindsay, Phillip DEN RB 9:22:17 p.m.
4.05 Las Vegas Gamblers Tate, Auden CIN WR 9:38:28 p.m.
4.06 Las Vegas Gamblers Akins, Jordan HOU TE 9:42:34 p.m.
4.07 Young Guns Schultz, Dalton DAL TE 10:15:20 p.m.
4.08 Miller Genuine Draft Picks Watson, Justin TBB WR 10:30:28 p.m.
4.09 Spanked Monkeys Thomas, Roc MIN RB 7:50:26 a.m.
4.10 Miller Genuine Draft Picks Berrios, Braxton NEP WR 12:32:17 p.m.
4.11 Llama Sutra Moore, J'Mon GBP WR 3:45:55 p.m.
4.12 Llama Sutra Wilson, Cedrick DAL WR 3:46:03 p.m.
5.01 FIGHTING COCKS Smith, Ito ATL RB 8:17:39 p.m.
5.02 FIGHTING COCKS Prosise, C.J. SEA RB 8:21:09 p.m.
5.03 Las Vegas Gamblers Scott, Jaleel BAL WR 9:50:07 p.m.
5.04 Fun With Dak and Jane Coutee, Keke HOU WR 9:50:07 p.m.
5.05 Fun With Dak and Jane Edmonds, Chase ARI RB 10:13:05 p.m.
5.06 FIGHTING COCKS Lasley, Jordan BAL WR 10:28:10 p.m.
5.07 Angry Pirates Thomas, Ian CAR TE 7:24:32 a.m.
5.08 Las Vegas Gamblers Ateman, Marcell OAK WR 9:47:55 a.m.
5.09 Spanked Monkeys Lazard, Allen JAC WR 9:47:55 a.m.
5.10 MTSkibum Rudolph, Mason PIT QB 10:42:46 a.m.
5.11 Las Vegas Gamblers Wilkins, Jordan IND RB 11:53:55 a.m.
5.12 4th and Drunk Adams, Josh PHI RB 12:59:19 p.m.

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I see KeKE as a third wr type.

 

I dont see him passing Fuller, but given that Fuller cant stay on the field the wr3 is worthy of a pick up.

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Yes.

 

I see Keke as competition for the third spot behind Hopkins and Fuller. IMO, Keke's not as talented as either Braxton Miller or Bruce Ellington. If he merely stays healthy, he might have a leg up on those two guys b/c they struggle with injuries. Then again, Keke is built so so small I think he'll struggle with injuries too.

 

I think Watson and Fuller have a pretty strong connection, so it would be tough to expect Keke to leapfrog him.

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Football Guru what do you think about J Jackson of the Chargers?

 

Is he worthy of a late round pick Incase M Gordon was too go down, and could he push M Gordon for playing time as the season goes on.

 

Thank you.

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Football Guru what do you think about J Jackson of the Chargers?

 

Is he worthy of a late round pick Incase M Gordon was too go down, and could he push M Gordon for playing time as the season goes on.

 

Thank you.

 

I think he's paying the price for a heavy career workload at Northwestern. He's not special by any means, but he is a fine all-purpose back who is probably the first real backup the Chargers have had since they drafted Gordon. (I'm not counting Ekeler since I think they believe he's the next Danny Woodhead.)

 

Jackson is worth a late-round pick as a cuff, but I don't think he eats into Gordon's workload much if at all. I think we begin to see what Gordon can really do this year if his line can stay healthy for once, although I know they don't want to run MG into the ground either.

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Thank you for the reply.

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I think Watson and Fuller have a pretty strong connection, so it would be tough to expect Keke to leapfrog him.

Did they really have a strong connection? Outside of one big game the connection looks kinda of average. But I will say when they did connect it seemed like it was for a TD.

 

Maybe I'm reading a little too much Welker into Keke but I still think he's gonna be the second best Wr fantasy option from the Texans come the end of the year.

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Football Guru I have a question.

 

We talked a lot about Colts rb M Mack last season.

 

What do you think of the new rookie N Hines.

 

I read thats he could have some good value in ppr leagues based by his ability too play for in the passing game.

 

From your knowledge can he also steal rushing att from Mack, and could he even over take Mack as the Colts rb1?

 

Thanks.

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Part of me thinks that Hines becomes a danny woodhead type back right away. But Mack also has decent hands. Not sure exactly what to think to be honest. Who is the better blocker? I have to think that they will go with who can best protect Luck.

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Football Guru I have a question.

 

We talked a lot about Colts rb M Mack last season.

 

What do you think of the new rookie N Hines.

 

I read thats he could have some good value in ppr leagues based by his ability too play for in the passing game.

 

From your knowledge can he also steal rushing att from Mack, and could he even over take Mack as the Colts rb1?

 

Thanks.

 

Reich was the OC in San Diego for two years and oversaw one of Danny Woodhead's best seasons. He was in Philly the last two years when they had Darren Sproles in 2016 and wanted to use Sproles a lot more before he got hurt early last year.

 

I begin with that info because even though he didn't shop for the groceries in SD or Philly, he probably prefers having a satellite back. As such, I have to believe Reich intends on using Hines the same way he did Woodhead and Sproles.

 

"Steal" is too strong of a word IMO. If 50-75 carries qualifies as stealing, then I guess he'll steal a few. But I can't imagine Hines will see many more than that. He was drafted to be a movable chess piece more than committee back IMO. So, I cannot foresee Mack losing significant early-down work to Hines. However, the rook is still a buzzkill to Mack's value b/c Mack is a capable receiver who figures to be limited to first and second downs. Additionally, it wouldn't surprise me if the Colts force Turbin or Wilkins into goal-line work.

 

I own Mack in dynasty and don't want to trade him, but I might do so if I can get a late first. Reich has only known RBBC and I fear he'll force onto this offense even if his (or our) eyes say he should do otherwise.

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Thanks for the reply.

 

One more question, would you rank Hines as a rb3 or a rb4 right now?

 

Im asking because I like Mack and I have him ranked pretty high in my 14 teamer ppr league, but Im having second thoughts about Mack.

 

I didnt like the lack of productivity I saw from him last season.

 

Thanks, always a pleasure gathering info from you.

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Thanks for the reply.

 

One more question, would you rank Hines as a rb3 or a rb4 right now?

 

Im asking because I like Mack and I have him ranked pretty high in my 14 teamer ppr league, but Im having second thoughts about Mack.

 

I didnt like the lack of productivity I saw from him last season.

 

Thanks, always a pleasure gathering info from you.

 

I definitely view Hines as a RB4 right now. I think you are looking at a Theo Riddick-like role at best, and I think that's ambitious in his rookie year.

 

Mack is a high-end talent IMO. It's easy for folks to point to how often he lost yards last year (versus Frank Gore), but Mack wasn't drafted to be a straight-ahead runner like Gore is at this point of his career. When your game is speed and quickness and your o-line doesn't allow you to use either one, you're going to have a lot of negative runs.

 

I know what I'm about to say is being overly simplistic, but I think it makes a point anyway. Only 18 of Gore's 261 carries went to either sideline, which means roughly 93 percent of his runs went in between the tackles. When a RB doesn't take more than two steps in either direction and shoots through the hole, it's hard for any defender except one who comes through untouched in the same hole to bring him down for a loss. Conversely, 25 of Mack's 93 carries went to either sideline. He obviously bounces more runs than Gore b/c he's young and b/c he can, but Mack was almost four times more likely to run outside last year than Gore. In short, Mack's carries gave defenders more opportunity to expose Indy's poor o-line and swallow up Mack.

 

Quenton Nelson is supposedly the highest-graded guard to come out of the draft since at least 2000. C Ryan Kelly has been a good player when healthy, which he wasn't last year. LT Anthony Costanzo has been good throughout the bulk of his career. That's three first-round picks making up the left side of the line to go along with a former second-rounder in RG Jack Mewhort. It's put-up or shut-up time for this unit ... the talent is there.

 

Again, I think it boils down to whether or not Reich wants one guy handling 225-plus carries, which his resume does not suggest he favors.

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J'mon Moore is someone that is going too late in dynasty drafts. Tons of upside and may even produce a few good weeks this year. Next years #2 in GB if not by mid season.

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J'mon Moore is someone that is going too late in dynasty drafts. Tons of upside and may even produce a few good weeks this year. Next years #2 in GB if not by mid season.

Idk about that. The Packers drafted 3 interesting receivers this year.

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Idk about that. The Packers drafted 3 interesting receivers this year.

Yeah and Moore is the best one. He is already taking 1st team reps. The other 2 are 50/50 on even making the team.

 

Jmon is the WR of the future for them. Thank me later.

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I like the Valdes-Scantling kid of the three. GB has a history of uncovering later round WR gems.

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I like the Valdes-Scantling kid of the three. GB has a history of uncovering later round WR gems.

I had a tough time deciding between the three. I was actually hoping Valdez would fall to me until you took him

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