Travis Kelce value?

[Kopy 489]

This will be a 12 team, dynasty, ppr scoring. Start 2rb,3wr,1te,1flex league.

 

If you were looking to get a WR in return for him. What tier WR would we be looking at?

Except for the top 3 (Brown, OBJ, Julio). Would anyone else for Kelce and a 2018 1st be a fair deal?

[weepaws 2,457]

His 221 points he scored in a ppr ff league would be worthy of a middle wr2.

 

I for one usually don't own Tes like Kelce because I usually draft te later then most.

 

So it would just depends on the value the person you make an offer too has on owning a te like Kelce.

 

It's a good question, and thanks for the post.

[Matt Mueller 146]

In general I'm a late TE guy but this year I think Kelce might be the actual WR 1 on KC.

 

So for me it comes down to would I rather have 80 catches, 1,000 yards and couple tds from a guy like Jarvis Landry or would I rather have that at my TE spot.

 

For me Kelce is a keep this year.

[BobSanders_33 127]

I agree with Matt. Kelce is a focal point if his teams passing game. That is extremely rare. He has TE1 overall potential and inot dynasty is relatively young and healthy.

 

I think in dynasty and redraw he is a huge positional advantage. He is essentially a guy that can score with the opponent's WR2 and I can almost always find a WR match-up that will outscore the opponent's TE.

[ralphster 274]

I traded Eifert and an early 2nd for Kelce a month ago.

[giraldi02 470]

I traded Eifert and an early 2nd for Kelce a month ago.

Robbery.

[redsrback 30]

Reminds me years back when i thought taking Antonio Gates early was the key.

[jdon 28]

I traded rookie pick 1.09 for kelce... I already had Effert

I wouldn't trade kelce again because he is the WR1 on that team and the consistency he brings is unparalleled.

I have behind no one, not even gronk

 

jdon

[Ray_T 589]

He reminds me of Gonzales in the way that he is the focal point of the offense.

 

Lots of the plays are designed to get the ball into his hands.

 

that being said, he is a surefire top 3 TE.

 

Most consider him the second best (next to Gronk) but I actually prefer him to Gronk because there is not the risk of injury that comes with a player like Gronk.

 

for sure he is the safest TE pick you could make (if you were gonna pick a TE early)

[weepaws 2,457]

Jdon nailed it.

 

He should be ranked as the top te.

 

He's the wr1 on the Chiefs.

 

Now his value for ff all depends on when in a draft one liked to draft a te.

 

I never get a top te, I alway draft them late and look for that steal.

[Bier Meister 1,513]

1. he is very consistent te

 

2. his numbers are close to wr2

2a. easier to find wr2 later in draft than consistent te

 

3. primary wr on kcc

 

4. plays in the afc west

 

5 ........ many leagues i have played in have a graduated ppr (.5 for rb, 1 for wr, 1.5 for te). this scoring elevates his value even more.

[Ray_T 589]

well, I drafted him reasonably early in one of my drafts last year.

 

as a result, my WR's were not quite as good as they normally are. One guy asked me how I'm higher in the standings than him. his RB's are equal to mine and his WR's are better than mine. My QB was a bit better than his QB but he didnt think that would be enough to overcome my shortcomings at WR.

 

I told him, I have a TE that puts up points like a WR. That's what makes the difference.

 

Thats when the light went on for him.

[Matt Mueller 146]

He reminds me of Gonzales in the way that he is the focal point of the offense.

 

Lots of the plays are designed to get the ball into his hands.

 

that being said, he is a surefire top 3 TE.

 

Most consider him the second best (next to Gronk) but I actually prefer him to Gronk because there is not the risk of injury that comes with a player like Gronk.

 

for sure he is the safest TE pick you could make (if you were gonna pick a TE early)

 

I took him OVER gronk at 3.9 in a recent dynasty startup.

 

Clearly everyone was afraid of Gronk and I went with my guy Kelce.

[Ray_T 589]

I was able to get him cheap in one of my pools last year. I dont think I'll be able to have the same luck this year.

[seafoam1 1,879]

I'm in an auction league. Depending on how things go for me, I'm going all out on him over any other TE. If I end up not wanting to pay up, I'm checking next on Rudolph, if not him, then Hunter Henry down the line. I think Kelce goes at least 10% of salary cap more than Henry. Either way a winner....

[TBayXXXVII 2,114]

I have Kelce #1 on my TE board... I'd take him in the 4th.

[weepaws 2,457]

I would rather wait and draft a te later on.

 

Like K Rudolph.

 

Who In ppr avg the same amount of points per game.

 

And I can use that important early round pick on a Rb or a Wr.

[giraldi02 470]

I would rather wait and draft a te later on.

 

Like K Rudolph.

 

Who In ppr avg the same amount of points per game.

 

And I can use that important early round pick on a Rb or a Wr.

This assumes though that the situations from last season are the same.

 

Kelce's workload only stands to increase this season with Maclin gone.

 

Rudolph on the other hand might have a harder time replicating those stats. Particularly if Stefon Diggs stays healthy. In the three games Diggs missed last year, Rudolph's PPR PPG received a 3 point boost.

[weepaws 2,457]

Agree with the above post, and that's so true about every player.

 

But I would still rather use my forth round pick on a Rb or Wr.

 

Now last season Kelce avg 13 points per game in ppr, their where 12 Te that avg 12 too 13 points per game in ppr.

 

So I would rather wait.

 

Maclin had only 76 targets last season, he was hurt for most of it.

 

And the drafting of Hunt tells me he might pick up some of those targets.

 

Ware only had 43 targets last season, and this team generally like to targets their Rbs in their short yardage passing game.

[giraldi02 470]

I think as it pertains to Kelce, a big issue is whether a potential WR2, say like Michael Crabtree, is more valuable than Kelce. A good amount of VBD comes into the discussion. Tight end is as deep as it (seemingly) ever has been. Guys like Ebron, Ertz, and Rudolph all could put up a similar EOY stats, which VBD would say look elsewhere.

 

The other issue is...by and large...whether you think Kelce is on the precipice of breaking out. Kelce just completed his third full season in the NFL. He *could* very well be entering the prime of his career. That might throw a bit of a wrench in that draft strategy.

 

This ultimately lies with play calling and personnel though. Without a massive increase in touchdowns, Kelce is a tough sell for me in the 3rd or 4th rounds

[ralphster 274]

the trouble with weighting points per game avg too heavily is that much scoring is streaky.

 

id love to get 10ppg from my TE every week, and if that means spending a 4th on him so be it.

 

especially if a guy available 4 rounds later and goes 2/17 one week, 4/67/2 the next and 1/19 the following week.

 

the latter wins you one game outright and is a liabilty the other 2 games. the former helps you win 3 in a row.

[giraldi02 470]

I agree man. PPG is dangerous, particularly if everyone plays the same amount of games. Then EOY and PPG are essentially the same

A guy like Keenan Allen is someone that PPG matters for. For the tight ends, there are quite a few landmine weeks amongst all of them. Kelce, to his credit, didn't have a lot of bad games though...all things considering for tight ends.

[TBayXXXVII 2,114]

Kelce will likely put up strong consistent numbers every week. WR's are overrated after the top 18 (middle of the WR2 class). Last year, the #19 WR averaged 13.3 ppg. Anyone know what #40 averaged? 11.3. Only 2 ppg separate a mid-WR2 from a mid-WR4. Kelce will easily make up that ground... and then some if over the person who waits until the 8th round or later to draft a TE who will likely average 4-6 points per game lass.

[weepaws 2,457]

Not true.

 

I draft Ertz in the eight round last season and he avg 13 points per game.

 

And I also was able to pick up J Graham in another ff league I drafted him ninth, and he avg 12 points per game.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Ertz's stats are boosted by his crazy week 17 and general backhalf push.

 

Ertz week 1-12 was a 9 PPG player.

[Matt Mueller 146]

Kelce had a moderate start the season posting 12 points per game through week 8.

 

Week 8-16 he posted 17 PPG in PPR

 

Kelce would have slotted in as WR 6 in that time span behind only Nelson, Brown, Beckham, Baldwin and Evans

[weepaws 2,457]

So if you remove Ertz week 17 in which he scored 38 points in ppr , do you then remove Kelce week 16 in which he scored 33 ppr points.

 

Ertz played in 14 games last season and in a ppr league he ranked in the top ten in weekly points scored for te 8/14 games. That's 57%

 

Kelce played in 16 games and he ranked in the top ten in weekly points scored for te 9/16 times. That's 56%

 

And if you removed Ertz week 17 points he would still have an avg of 11 points per game, much higher then 4 -6 per game.

 

And if you remove Kelce week 16 he would avg 12 points per game.

 

So I will wait and take my week eight guy and load up on WRs in which I can usually slot into three postions instead of two.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

So if you remove Ertz week 17 in which he scored 38 points in ppr , do you then remove Kelce week 16 in which he scored 33 ppr points.

 

Ertz played in 14 games last season and in a ppr league he ranked in the top ten in weekly points scored for te 8/14 games. That's 57%

 

Kelce played in 16 games and he ranked in the top ten in weekly points scored for te 9/16 times. That's 56%

 

And if you removed Ertz week 17 points he would still have an avg of 11 points per game, much higher then 4 -6 per game.

 

And if you remove Kelce week 16 he would avg 12 points per game.

 

So I will wait and take my week eight guy and load up on WRs in which I can usually slot into three postions instead of two.

Correct. Week 17 games do not count

[weepaws 2,457]

Depends on your league.

 

I'm in some that indeed it does count.

 

And in some that week 16 does not count either.

[TBayXXXVII 2,114]

So if you remove Ertz week 17 in which he scored 38 points in ppr , do you then remove Kelce week 16 in which he scored 33 ppr points.

 

Ertz played in 14 games last season and in a ppr league he ranked in the top ten in weekly points scored for te 8/14 games. That's 57%

 

Kelce played in 16 games and he ranked in the top ten in weekly points scored for te 9/16 times. That's 56%

 

And if you removed Ertz week 17 points he would still have an avg of 11 points per game, much higher then 4 -6 per game.

 

And if you remove Kelce week 16 he would avg 12 points per game.

 

So I will wait and take my week eight guy and load up on WRs in which I can usually slot into three postions instead of two.

 

Ertz is always limited... every year. He, like Reed and Gronk, I can safely say... will get hurt and miss games this year. Kelce played every game in each of the last 2 years.

[weepaws 2,457]

Just because he played in every game each of the last two years, doesn't mean he will make it three.

 

And if I draft Ertz let's say round eight or nine and he indeed does get hurt that's ok I can get another te, but I would still be with my wr and Rbs.

 

Now if this is the season Kelce gets hurt you would lose a fourth round pick.

 

Point was you can draft a very good te late and get close to the production or even equal of those TE that are draft to early.

[ralphster 274]

That's where VBD and draft philosophy come together. Everybody is different.

 

I'll take Kelce early and Marvin Jones late. You'll take Tate or Landry early and Ertz late.

 

At the end of the year each duo will likely put up similar ppg numbers, but I believe Kelce will be a high floor difference maker on a weekly basis whereas Ertz will not.

 

It's part of why we all love FF; we love to be "right" about guys we like.

[giraldi02 470]

I dunno Ralphster...

End of the season Ertz is a force to reckon with