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tanatastic

Matt Ryan and why you should pause before calling him a top half QB1 this year.

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I think people need to pump the brakes on calling Matt Ryan a lock for top 6. Last seasons MVP year was an outlier and he previously had never finished higher than QB 7 or so. In fact he was barely even drafted last year after a bad 2015.

 

I know recency bias can be extremely strong and the urge to carry over production is as well. Consider the prior years top QB, Cam Newton. He proceeded to bust last year after his best season and a Super Bowl loss, same as Ryan. But unlike Ryan, Cam has multiple top 5 qb finishes under his belt. Also factor in the architect behind that magical ATL season is gone (Shanahan).

 

I would call the odds long that Ryan throws even 30tds this season (he's done it 2/9 seasons. Don't factor Julio too much, he's not a big td guy.). 4500yds is pretty safe, he's done it multiple years in a row. I would say Ryan's stats this year should be right in the Stafford, Carr area.

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New Orleans twice in the fantasy playoffs!!! THat means you have a great chance matching the Brady , Rodgers, or whatever sleeper QB pops this year in the playoffs and then eliminate them with your higher pick where they had to take the top QBS...

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I think he is a safe play at qb. his stats last year were 4944, 38td, 7 int.

 

so assuming a dip from his career year: 4500, 30, 13 is a reasonable expectation for him. as i mentioned the other day he has thrown for over 4500 every year since 2012. his tds since 2010 have been 28, 29, 32, 26, 28, 21, 38 (last year).

 

we have high expectations for rodgers, brady, and brees based on their history. there will be a qb or two that will outperform ryan, but pinpoint the ones is less predictable. stafford has floated around 4200-4300 for the past 3 years with tds of 24 (last year), 32, 22, 29, 20, 41 (2011). much less consistency. for many of the solid other qbs we are having to project up for them to reach ryan's dip back down to his average.

 

people can draft who and when they would like, but we should still be looking at standard deviation for games and seasons.

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New Orleans twice in the fantasy playoffs!!! THat means you have a great chance matching the Brady , Rodgers, or whatever sleeper QB pops this year in the playoffs and then eliminate them with your higher pick where they had to take the top QBS...

Bingo!!!!!! Fire me up some Marty Ice!!!!

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Bingo!!!!!! Fire me up some Marty Ice!!!!

Hopefully Julio can do better than the blistering 1-16 he hung @NO last year.

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I think people need to pump the brakes on calling Matt Ryan a lock for top 6. Last seasons MVP year was an outlier and he previously had never finished higher than QB 7 or so. In fact he was barely even drafted last year after a bad 2015.

 

I know recency bias can be extremely strong and the urge to carry over production is as well. Consider the prior years top QB, Cam Newton. He proceeded to bust last year after his best season and a Super Bowl loss, same as Ryan. But unlike Ryan, Cam has multiple top 5 qb finishes under his belt. Also factor in the architect behind that magical ATL season is gone (Shanahan).

 

I would call the odds long that Ryan throws even 30tds this season (he's done it 2/9 seasons. Don't factor Julio too much, he's not a big td guy.). 4500yds is pretty safe, he's done it multiple years in a row. I would say Ryan's stats this year should be right in the Stafford, Carr area.

 

Tom Brady had his first elite fantasy season at 30, Drew Brews at 29, Big Ben at 31. The fact that Matt Ryan's first elite season was at 29 puts him about average. There are many late blossoming fantasy QB's.

 

I am not drafting Ryan this year because I think there are better values, but I would not be surprised if he finishes top 3 again.

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Hopefully Julio can do better than the blistering 1-16 he hung @NO last year.

 

that was week 2.

 

in week 17 julio put up 7 rec, 96 yds, 1 td

 

as for ryan in those two games:

 

week 2= a medicore 240, 2 td, 0 int, 23 rushing yds edit: this was his worst game all season

week 17= 331, 4 tds, 0 int, 2 rushing yds

 

 

ryan had 6 games over 300 yds

only 4 games with 1 td

7 games with 3+ tds

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The OP lives in the past... on Ice, on Cam, and certainly on JJ. Flacco would've been the better analogy by the way...

 

ATL wasn't on prime time TV much last season so many probably didn't watch him actually play, but rather check in on the box score which was typically serviceable. He's playing out of his mind at the peak of his career; HOWEVER, I do agree with the OP that a new OC is a concern. I think he has been ranked/mocked right about where he should, but I am a fan. Also, when you draft a player like him, you just start him every week rather than drafting 2 QBs ranked 10-24, and losing sleep throughout the week as to who to start each game.

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How will a new OC affect Matty? If Shanny was there I would feel a lot better and can probably guarantee duplicate numbers but when you replace the brains of your scheme, 100% chance he's going to change some things up. Will the changes benefit Matty or not. Guess time will tell.

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Having Freeman, coleman, and hooper on my team I'm invested in this. Sarkesian seemed like a decent hire. Shanahan did great things last yr but the yr before they were ready to run him out with how bad ryan played. Even if Kyle were there some regression was going to take place. I doubt they mess it up so bad that it falls off a cliff and burys anyone owning falcons. The o line needs to stay healthy as much as anything, esp Alex mack.

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Understand that I am in no way saying Matt is bad or will have a bad season. You can pencil him in for at least 4400yds, I just think his tds will come down to under 30. He should be QB7-8 like usual, perfectly respectable.

 

Had I said similar about Cam last year coming off of his MVP season you would have all been skeptical too (I didn't, I'm just sayin).

 

How bout some trends just for fun. Last year Cam coming off MVP and a lost SB, regressed and TDs dropped by like 15. Couple years before that, Peyton Manning coming off MVP and a lost SB, great year but TDs dropped by 16. This year, Matt Ryan coming off MVP and SB loss....to be determined.

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How bout some trends just for fun. Last year Cam coming off MVP and a lost SB, regressed and TDs dropped by like 15. Couple years before that, Peyton Manning coming off MVP and a lost SB, great year but TDs dropped by 16. This year, Matt Ryan coming off MVP and SB loss....to be determined.

Peyton Manning was 62 years old.

 

I'll give you Cam... kind of. Losing Benjamin before season started was an ouchie.

 

If you don't believe in Ice, he will ruin your weekends.

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Peyton Manning was 62 years old.

 

 

Manning fought in the Great War before strapping on his first leather football helmet. He was 102 before he retired.

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He's a whole six points behind the number six QB at this time.

 

I'm not sure there's much to see at this time.

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He's a whole six points behind the number six QB at this time.

I'm not sure there's much to see at this time.

He is still QB 16 in standard scoring. I already said its only week 3, its nothing to really see right now, but still jus sayin. Ill check back in at mid season.

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Yes only 3 games in, but still... :dunno: :wave:

 

 

he is getting the yards, but not tds... mostly going to freeman right now. seems like qb play is down across the board. the over/under on the other qb's that might outplay him is a crapshoot. cam, rivers, mariota, carr, manning owners probably aren't happy.

 

it's week 3. lets check in every 3 weeks

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I have ICE and Julio, I hope they are getting ready to bust out. Speaking of bust CAM - just does not look right. Rushing TD, but others could have run it in.

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New Orleans twice in the fantasy playoffs!!! THat means you have a great chance matching the Brady , Rodgers, or whatever sleeper QB pops this year in the playoffs and then eliminate them with your higher pick where they had to take the top QBS...

That's exactly why I drafted Ryan.

 

Getting the Bucs in Week 15, who freakin' Case Keenum shredded for 373 yards and 3 TDs is icing on the cake. If you can make the playoffs, Ryan might be a critical piece in winning you a title.

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Three weeks in to comment on a season long prediction is always ridiculous.

Like I have said twice already, it’s early but I’m just checking in. Don’t get it twisted, people are upset already that they drafted the MVP high and are getting pedestrian games. The higher a guys draft status, the earlier you have a right to start scrutinizing them. As said, I’ll check back in around mid season and see where we are at. It’s nothing to see for now (yea, tell that to his owners) and the falcons look great so let’s see.

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Another bad/mediocre game in a good matchup coming off a bye. Oh and thanks for costing my kicker a game tying FG with that near red zone int with a chance to tie.

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Another bad/mediocre game in a good matchup coming off a bye. Oh and thanks for costing my kicker a game tying FG with that near red zone int with a chance to tie.

 

Great throw that hit Hooper in the hands, bounced off and got intercepted. Still a weak game by Ryan though.

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Managed to secure Watson to make up for drafting Ryan. Wish he would at least do enough to give him some trade value.

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I think I'm starting Carson Palmer against the Rams next week.

 

I don't trust Ryan and co. playing in Foxboro on national TV; the visions of "28 to 3" will be dancing in their heads.

 

The Falcons offensively just seem to be a unit in search of their identity. Steve Sarkisian has so many weapons to utilize, but he doesn't seem to have gotten a feel for this squad.

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Anytime a team loses its OC changes tend to take place.

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I would call the odds long that Ryan throws even 30tds this season (he's done it 2/9 seasons. Don't factor Julio too much, he's not a big td guy.). 4500yds is pretty safe, he's done it multiple years in a row. I would say Ryan's stats this year should be right in the Stafford, Carr area.

 

At this point I'd be thrilled to get Stafford / Carr stats for the season. We're looking more at Keenum / Dalton stats, yuk.

 

And tantastic, your are the freakin QB Nostradamus. :wub:

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I think people need to pump the brakes on calling Matt Ryan a lock for top 6. Last seasons MVP year was an outlier and he previously had never finished higher than QB 7 or so. In fact he was barely even drafted last year after a bad 2015.

 

I know recency bias can be extremely strong and the urge to carry over production is as well. Consider the prior years top QB, Cam Newton. He proceeded to bust last year after his best season and a Super Bowl loss, same as Ryan. But unlike Ryan, Cam has multiple top 5 qb finishes under his belt. Also factor in the architect behind that magical ATL season is gone (Shanahan).

 

I would call the odds long that Ryan throws even 30tds this season (he's done it 2/9 seasons. Don't factor Julio too much, he's not a big td guy.). 4500yds is pretty safe, he's done it multiple years in a row. I would say Ryan's stats this year should be right in the Stafford, Carr area.

 

Nice call, I remember this thread and didn't disagree at all. I HATED owning Ryan in the past, very inconsistent. Always flashed something to make you keep playing him in a matchup situation. Then hating yourself for being so stupid to give him another shot.

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Unfortunately I have Ryan and maybe did not expect last year, but I have watched two of his games and there is something very different going on. The change in OCs has really hurt - I do not know why coach has changed methods - head coach finally says this week we have to get Julio more involved. Winston hurt so Matty will get one last chance from me. I am not very sure of my pick, the season this far is most like the end of the Super last year. Just not the right feel to the offense.

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At least he could have one of his best games this week vs patriots. Every QB has put up 300 on them and he is perfectly capable of that. Plus Im facing Julio so he for sure gets in the end zone and maybe has one of those signature 200+ yd games.

 

Point is, if you were considering selling Ryan, wait til after this week. Potential buyers wont fall for the matchup, they will want to see it to believe it.

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If I was selling Ryan the offers would be soooo lowww it is not worth it. I am starting to think the pace and quickness of the offensive was decided on as bad by the head and OC - thee have successfully established another pace and no one knows what it is. A few weeks ago Julio and single coverage to the right Matty held the ball until the rush was on him and threw a hail mary close to Julio, but out of bounds. one on one trow it up close and see what happens - that used to work, but I guess he wasted 2 or 3 seconds Coach seems to consider that a success the defense got to rest.

 

NE defense and coaching has not caught up to any of the teams so far, but based on ATL OC it will probably by a first for NE.. Do not let the OC put another worthless plan in!!!!!!!

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Another week, another poor performance by Ryan. At halftime 1 TD and two fumbles.

 

Very soon Ill have to cut bait and go with WW QBs like Dalton, Carr, and Flacco.

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Another week, another poor performance by Ryan. At halftime 1 TD and two fumbles.

Very soon Ill have to cut bait and go with WW QBs like Dalton, Carr, and Flacco.

Carr is same tier as Dalton, Flacco?

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Carr is same tier as Dalton, Flacco?

Well, they are all currently on my WW, but I agree Carr is a step above the other two. But the real story is there are 19 QBs better than Ryan in my league so far this year (6 points TD).

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