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Why Trump will win - By Michael Moore

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http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/

 

 

 

Friends:

 

I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but I gave it to you straight last summer when I told you that Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee for president. And now I have even more awful, depressing news for you: Donald J. Trump is going to win in November. This wretched, ignorant, dangerous part-time clown and full time sociopath is going to be our next president. President Trump. Go ahead and say the words, ‘cause you’ll be saying them for the next four years: “PRESIDENT TRUMP.”

 

Never in my life have I wanted to be proven wrong more than I do right now.

 

I can see what you’re doing right now. You’re shaking your head wildly – “No, Mike, this won’t happen!” Unfortunately, you are living in a bubble that comes with an adjoining echo chamber where you and your friends are convinced the American people are not going to elect an idiot for president. You alternate between being appalled at him and laughing at him because of his latest crazy comment or his embarrassingly narcissistic stance on everything because everything is about him. And then you listen to Hillary and you behold our very first female president, someone the world respects, someone who is whip-smart and cares about kids, who will continue the Obama legacy because that is what the American people clearly want! Yes! Four more years of this!

 

You need to exit that bubble right now. You need to stop living in denial and face the truth which you know deep down is very, very real. Trying to soothe yourself with the facts – “77% of the electorate are women, people of color, young adults under 35 and Trump cant win a majority of any of them!” – or logic – “people aren’t going to vote for a buffoon or against their own best interests!” – is your brain’s way of trying to protect you from trauma. Like when you hear a loud noise on the street and you think, “oh, a tire just blew out,” or, “wow, who’s playing with firecrackers?” because you don’t want to think you just heard someone being shot with a gun. It’s the same reason why all the initial news and eyewitness reports on 9/11 said “a small plane accidentally flew into the World Trade Center.” We want to – we need to – hope for the best because, frankly, life is already a ###### show and it’s hard enough struggling to get by from paycheck to paycheck. We can’t handle much more bad news. So our mental state goes to default when something scary is actually, truly happening. The first people plowed down by the truck in Nice spent their final moments on earth waving at the driver whom they thought had simply lost control of his truck, trying to tell him that he jumped the curb: “Watch out!,” they shouted. “There are people on the sidewalk!”

 

Well, folks, this isn’t an accident. It is happening. And if you believe Hillary Clinton is going to beat Trump with facts and smarts and logic, then you obviously missed the past year of 56 primaries and caucuses where 16 Republican candidates tried that and every kitchen sink they could throw at Trump and nothing could stop his juggernaut. As of today, as things stand now, I believe this is going to happen – and in order to deal with it, I need you first to acknowledge it, and then maybe, just maybe, we can find a way out of the mess we’re in.

Don’t get me wrong. I have great hope for the country I live in. Things are better. The left has won the cultural wars. Gays and lesbians can get married. A majority of Americans now take the liberal position on just about every polling question posed to them: Equal pay for women – check. Abortion should be legal – check. Stronger environmental laws – check. More gun control – check. Legalize marijuana – check. A huge shift has taken place – just ask the socialist who won 22 states this year. And there is no doubt in my mind that if people could vote from their couch at home on their X-box or PlayStation, Hillary would win in a landslide.

 

But that is not how it works in America. People have to leave the house and get in line to vote. And if they live in poor, Black or Hispanic neighborhoods, they not only have a longer line to wait in, everything is being done to literally stop them from casting a ballot. So in most elections it’s hard to get even 50% to turn out to vote. And therein lies the problem for November – who is going to have the most motivated, most inspired voters show up to vote? You know the answer to this question. Who’s the candidate with the most rabid supporters? Whose crazed fans are going to be up at 5 AM on Election Day, kicking ass all day long, all the way until the last polling place has closed, making sure every Tom, ###### and Harry (and Bob and Joe and Billy Bob and Billy Joe and Billy Bob Joe) has cast his ballot? That’s right. That’s the high level of danger we’re in. And don’t fool yourself — no amount of compelling Hillary TV ads, or outfacting him in the debates or Libertarians siphoning votes away from Trump is going to stop his mojo.

Here are the 5 reasons Trump is going to win:

  1. Midwest Math, or Welcome to Our Rust Belt Brexit. I believe Trump is going to focus much of his attention on the four blue states in the rustbelt of the upper Great Lakes – Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Four traditionally Democratic states – but each of them have elected a Republican governor since 2010 (only Pennsylvania has now finally elected a Democrat). In the Michigan primary in March, more Michiganders came out to vote for the Republicans (1.32 million) that the Democrats (1.19 million). Trump is ahead of Hillary in the latest polls in Pennsylvania and tied with her in Ohio. Tied? How can the race be this close after everything Trump has said and done? Well maybe it’s because he’s said (correctly) that the Clintons’ support of NAFTA helped to destroy the industrial states of the Upper Midwest. Trump is going to hammer Clinton on this and her support of TPP and other trade policies that have royally screwed the people of these four states. When Trump stood in the shadow of a Ford Motor factory during the Michigan primary, he threatened the corporation that if they did indeed go ahead with their planned closure of that factory and move it to Mexico, he would slap a 35% tariff on any Mexican-built cars shipped back to the United States. It was sweet, sweet music to the ears of the working class of Michigan, and when he tossed in his threat to Apple that he would force them to stop making their iPhones in China and build them here in America, well, hearts swooned and Trump walked away with a big victory that should have gone to the governor next-door, John Kasich.

    From Green Bay to Pittsburgh, this, my friends, is the middle of England – broken, depressed, struggling, the smokestacks strewn across the countryside with the carcass of what we use to call the Middle Class. Angry, embittered working (and nonworking) people who were lied to by the trickle-down of Reagan and abandoned by Democrats who still try to talk a good line but are really just looking forward to rub one out with a lobbyist from Goldman Sachs who’ll write them nice big check before leaving the room. What happened in the UK with Brexit is going to happen here. Elmer Gantry shows up looking like Boris Johnson and just says whatever ###### he can make up to convince the masses that this is their chance! To stick to ALL of them, all who wrecked their American Dream! And now The Outsider, Donald Trump, has arrived to clean house! You don’t have to agree with him! You don’t even have to like him! He is your personal Molotov cocktail to throw right into the center of the bastards who did this to you! SEND A MESSAGE! TRUMP IS YOUR MESSENGER!

    And this is where the math comes in. In 2012, Mitt Romney lost by 64 electoral votes. Add up the electoral votes cast by Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It’s 64. All Trump needs to do to win is to carry, as he’s expected to do, the swath of traditional red states from Idaho to Georgia (states that’ll never vote for Hillary Clinton), and then he just needs these four rust belt states. He doesn’t need Florida. He doesn’t need Colorado or Virginia. Just Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And that will put him over the top. This is how it will happen in November.

  2. The Last Stand of the Angry White Man. Our male-dominated, 240-year run of the USA is coming to an end. A woman is about to take over! How did this happen?! On our watch! There were warning signs, but we ignored them. Nixon, the gender traitor, imposing Title IX on us, the rule that said girls in school should get an equal chance at playing sports. Then they let them fly commercial jets. Before we knew it, Beyoncé stormed on the field at this year’s Super Bowl (our game!) with an army of Black Women, fists raised, declaring that our domination was hereby terminated! Oh, the humanity!

    That’s a small peek into the mind of the Endangered White Male. There is a sense that the power has slipped out of their hands, that their way of doing things is no longer how things are done. This monster, the “Feminazi,”the thing that as Trump says, “bleeds through her eyes or wherever she bleeds,” has conquered us — and now, after having had to endure eight years of a black man telling us what to do, we’re supposed to just sit back and take eight years of a woman bossing us around? After that it’ll be eight years of the gays in the White House! Then the transgenders! You can see where this is going. By then animals will have been granted human rights and a fuckin’ hamster is going to be running the country. This has to stop!

  3. The Hillary Problem. Can we speak honestly, just among ourselves? And before we do, let me state, I actually like Hillary – a lot – and I think she has been given a bad rap she doesn’t deserve. But her vote for the Iraq War made me promise her that I would never vote for her again. To date, I haven’t broken that promise. For the sake of preventing a proto-fascist from becoming our commander-in-chief, I’m breaking that promise. I sadly believe Clinton will find a way to get us in some kind of military action. She’s a hawk, to the right of Obama. But Trump’s psycho finger will be on The Button, and that is that. Done and done.

    Let’s face it: Our biggest problem here isn’t Trump – it’s Hillary. She is hugely unpopular — nearly 70% of all voters think she is untrustworthy and dishonest. She represents the old way of politics, not really believing in anything other than what can get you elected. That’s why she fights against gays getting married one moment, and the next she’s officiating a gay marriage. Young women are among her biggest detractors, which has to hurt considering it’s the sacrifices and the battles that Hillary and other women of her generation endured so that this younger generation would never have to be told by the Barbara Bushes of the world that they should just shut up and go bake some cookies. But the kids don’t like her, and not a day goes by that a millennial doesn’t tell me they aren’t voting for her. No Democrat, and certainly no independent, is waking up on November 8th excited to run out and vote for Hillary the way they did the day Obama became president or when Bernie was on the primary ballot. The enthusiasm just isn’t there. And because this election is going to come down to just one thing — who drags the most people out of the house and gets them to the polls — Trump right now is in the catbird seat.

  4. The Depressed Sanders Vote. Stop fretting about Bernie’s supporters not voting for Clinton – we’re voting for Clinton! The polls already show that more Sanders voters will vote for Hillary this year than the number of Hillary primary voters in ’08 who then voted for Obama. This is not the problem. The fire alarm that should be going off is that while the average Bernie backer will drag him/herself to the polls that day to somewhat reluctantly vote for Hillary, it will be what’s called a “depressed vote” – meaning the voter doesn’t bring five people to vote with her. He doesn’t volunteer 10 hours in the month leading up to the election. She never talks in an excited voice when asked why she’s voting for Hillary. A depressed voter. Because, when you’re young, you have zero tolerance for phonies and BS. Returning to the Clinton/Bush era for them is like suddenly having to pay for music, or using MySpace or carrying around one of those big-ass portable phones. They’re not going to vote for Trump; some will vote third party, but many will just stay home. Hillary Clinton is going to have to do something to give them a reason to support her — and picking a moderate, bland-o, middle of the road old white guy as her running mate is not the kind of edgy move that tells millenials that their vote is important to Hillary. Having two women on the ticket – that was an exciting idea. But then Hillary got scared and has decided to play it safe. This is just one example of how she is killing the youth vote.

  5. The Jesse Ventura Effect. Finally, do not discount the electorate’s ability to be mischievous or underestimate how any millions fancy themselves as closet anarchists once they draw the curtain and are all alone in the voting booth. It’s one of the few places left in society where there are no security cameras, no listening devices, no spouses, no kids, no boss, no cops, there’s not even a friggin’ time limit. You can take as long as you need in there and no one can make you do anything. You can push the button and vote a straight party line, or you can write in Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck. There are no rules. And because of that, and the anger that so many have toward a broken political system, millions are going to vote for Trump not because they agree with him, not because they like his bigotry or ego, but just because they can. Just because it will upset the apple cart and make mommy and daddy mad. And in the same way like when you’re standing on the edge of Niagara Falls and your mind wonders for a moment what would that feel like to go over that thing, a lot of people are going to love being in the position of puppetmaster and plunking down for Trump just to see what that might look like. Remember back in the ‘90s when the people of Minnesota elected a professional wrestler as their governor? They didn’t do this because they’re stupid or thought that Jesse Ventura was some sort of statesman or political intellectual. They did so just because they could. Minnesota is one of the smartest states in the country. It is also filled with people who have a dark sense of humor — and voting for Ventura was their version of a good practical joke on a sick political system. This is going to happen again with Trump.

Coming back to the hotel after appearing on Bill Maher’s Republican Convention special this week on HBO, a man stopped me. “Mike,” he said, “we have to vote for Trump. We HAVE to shake things up.” That was it. That was enough for him. To “shake things up.” President Trump would indeed do just that, and a good chunk of the electorate would like to sit in the bleachers and watch that reality show.

 

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That's a lot of werds. Cliff's Notes version?

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That's a lot of werds. Cliff's Notes version?

People lost jobs and are pissed. White guys are pisssed too (eye roll). Nobody likes Hillary. Other people just want to say Fock you to the establishment.

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That's a lot of werds. Cliff's Notes version?

 

 

Trump will win.

 

But not for the reasons he blathers on about. It's much more simple.

 

HRC and Co are acting like it's all over.

 

The problem with that is there's not exactly a lot of excitement for HRC.

 

In fact, the biggest enthusiasm came from the 'Anybody But Trump' aspect.

 

If people think that Trump's going to lose anyway, Democrats will blow off voting entirely thinking "Mission Accomplished".

 

And the half-wits will vote for Trump,

 

 

And we'll all wake up on November 9th thinking WTF???

 

....Including Trump.

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According to the last paragraph, this was written the week after the Republican Convention, the one fleeting moment in time when Trump actually really did close the gap on Hillary in the polls. If he's still saying that in late October with Hillary a bajillion points ahead in all the polls everywhere, he's an even bigger moron than we've previously known.

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According to the last paragraph, this was written the week after the Republican Convention, the one fleeting moment in time when Trump actually really did close the gap on Hillary in the polls. If he's still saying that in late October with Hillary a bajillion points ahead in all the polls everywhere, he's an even bigger moron than we've previously known.

I do worry about the enthusiasm gap. A lot of Hilary voters will say "fock it" and stay home. Trumptards will flat be there.

 

Oh well. Not like I live there any focking way.

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I keep hearing this theory that there are a bunch of people who will vote for Trump buy are ashamed to admit it to pollsters. If you're ashamed to vote for someone...you probably shouldn't vote for them.

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I keep hearing this theory that there are a bunch of people who will vote for Trump buy are ashamed to admit it to pollsters. If you're ashamed to vote for someone...you probably shouldn't vote for them.

If that was true, tupac would win this year in a landslide

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I keep hearing this theory that there are a bunch of people who will vote for Trump buy are ashamed to admit it to pollsters. If you're ashamed to vote for someone...you probably shouldn't vote for them.

I don't buy that theory, but I do see the reality that the press has been calling it for weeks, so they are basically ignoring Trump voters in an effort to sway the election. Very few "news" organizations are interested in publishing honest polls.

 

Michael Moore has become a shill, Hillary stands for everything the guy claims to hate. What a sellout.

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I don't buy that theory, but I do see the reality that the press has been calling it for weeks, so they are basically ignoring Trump voters in an effort to sway the election. Very few "news" organizations are interested in publishing honest polls.

 

Michael Moore has become a shill, Hillary stands for everything the guy claims to hate. What a sellout.

Thinking about it a bit more, I guess I could see it. The media and Dems have done a great job painting all Trump supporters as racist, so I could see some people supporting Trump not wanting to admit it because they don't want to be thought of as racist.

 

Still, I don't see that as a large amount of people.

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So let me get this straight in my head:

 

1-Trump will win because of Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Except all of those states now lean democrat except for Ohio, which is a tossup.

 

2-Angry White Man will put him over the top. Even though they're outnumbered by college educated men who aren't angry, women, blacks, Latinos, and gays, all of which are voting Hillary in greater numbers than Trump.

 

3-The Hillary problem, I guess meaning people don't like her so they will vote for Trump instead. Even though her unfavorability ratings have been way better than Trumps since the beginning., and she dominated him during the debates, reassuring folks that she will make a vastly superior President.

 

4-The Depressed Sanders vote will keep the youth out of the voting booth, except for the fact that Sanders voters pretty much fell in line quickly behind Clinton.

 

5-The Jesse Ventura effect? To stupid to comment on. Sure, there are plenty of folks who want to upset the apple cart, but that's like saying the size of Trump's rallies means he'll win. Where is he in the polls?

 

6-Repubs hate Michael Moore, now all of a sudden he knows what he's talking about? :rolleyes:

 

And I'll add a few ridiculous ones of my own:

 

1-Trump will win because there's a vast pool of people who will vote for him who are too embarrassed to say it. So, the logic is that Trump supporters are embarrassed to support him, but supporters of Hillary Clinton, herself very unpopular, are not? Not buying it.

 

2-Sanders supporters want change, they'll vote Trump. Only, none of what he wants is what they want. Plus, they've already fallen in line behind Clinton.

 

3-Polls are rigged. Only, they're not. Most polling is done by reputable polling companies, and only a couple have the race in a statistical dead heat, and those are tracking polls, not opinion polls.

 

4-Clinton supporters think the race is over, so they won't vote. This ignores the fact that only 50% of the electorate votes, anyways. Was there a huge enthusiasm burst for Clinton that would have pushed it to 52% or 55% of the electorate voting, now those people are staying home? Trump keeps telling people to vote, now his people are hoping for a smaller turnout because that favors him? Face it, people know who Trump is. Clinton supporters know that he is singularly dangerous to all of the things they want accomplished, they won't just say "We got him beat, I think I'll stay home and clean my navel instead of voting." They'll be out voting.

 

The fact is, there are not enough of the type of people who want Trump for him to win.

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That's a lot of werds. Cliff's Notes version?

Michael Moore wanted to get his name out there by neing a contrarion...and he is giving little BLS hope.

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According to the last paragraph, this was written the week after the Republican Convention, the one fleeting moment in time when Trump actually really did close the gap on Hillary in the polls. If he's still saying that in late October with Hillary a bajillion points ahead in all the polls everywhere, he's an even bigger moron than we've previously known.

 

Written around July 25...I guess BLS thought there was a 6th reason, Trump owns a time machine.

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Michael Moore is a giant doosh. Just let me say that and get it out of the way.

 

I am in the anti-Hillary camp and will be voting reluctantly for Donald Trump. The biggest hope I see is that the vast majority of people that AREN'T talking about the election or participating in polls will be people voting for Trump and that will be the swing that takes him past that POS Hillary.

 

By that I mean those without internet, those too busy stockpiling guns to have time for social media, those who haven't voted in years, etc etc. Basically the lunatic fringe portion of Trump supporters.

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Michael Moore is a giant

 

:thumbsup:

  • Like 1

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I think the one thing 100% of Americans can agree on is... I can't wait for this sh!t show to be over.

 

Has been an embarrassment to our nation from start to finish.

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Now we have Right Wingers touting Michael Moore? Holy cow - the apocalypse has begun! :lol:

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Now we have Right Wingers touting Michael Moore? Holy cow - the apocalypse has begun! :lol:

 

They think Russia is awesome too.

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Now we have Right Wingers touting Michael Moore? Holy cow - the apocalypse has begun! :lol:

 

If Michael Moore said Obama was a Muslim you think righties wouldn't post it?

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I think the one thing 100% of Americans can agree on is... I can't wait for this sh!t show to be over.

 

Has been an embarrassment to our nation from start to finish.

99.9% I love this stuff... I wish it would never end.

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99.9% I love this stuff... I wish it would never end.

I have enjoyed the on-the-field chaos between these two. The debates, the news coverage - I'm all on board with.......... It's social media that has ruined it for me. I'm so focking sick and tired of all the jackasses blowing up FB with all this Trump/Hillary crap - it never ends. Bcoz of that I can't wait for it to be over.

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This wretched, ignorant, dangerous part-time clown and full time sociopath

Wait, is Moore talking about himself?

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Written around July 25...I guess BLS thought there was a 6th reason, Trump owns a time machine.

 

Guess I didn't catch that.

I just thought it was interesting; hadn't read it.

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Guess I didn't catch that.

I just thought it was interesting; hadn't read it.

Well, it wouldn't have been funny if you caught it... :thumbsup: :cheers:

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I have enjoyed the on-the-field chaos between these two. The debates, the news coverage - I'm all on board with.......... It's social media that has ruined it for me. I'm so focking sick and tired of all the jackasses blowing up FB with all this Trump/Hillary crap - it never ends. Bcoz of that I can't wait for it to be over.

I'm not on social media... Wife has FB, i occasionally look at twitter but im a novice and don't really know how to navigate it... I only follow maybe a dozen people and its so much crap on it even that tiny amount is way too much.

 

I feel like the same 6 accounts are always the first reply when trump tweets... that pepe frog BS...

 

 

Moore is trying to GOTV with that article... personality alone isn't going to drive people to the polls, its internalizing the the idea of media driven mystique of a trump presidency to incite fear...

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Moore has never been right about anything. That streak will continue.

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I question men of a certain age with Facebook.

 

like adult men who wear jerseys of their "idols" to the games?

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like adult men who wear jerseys of their "idols" to the games?

That's a far lower level then what I was getting at, but same species

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I question men of a certain age with Facebook.

Meh. I live 5,000 miles from home. I can hop on there every so often and post pictures from trips and stuff. Far easier than sending pictures to each relative and friend one at a time.

 

And I get to see stuff in missing. Parties back home. Neice and nephew picks. Things like that.

 

It's not really entertainment. Just a tool at this point.

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I hope he's finally right. But he's not. His streak goes on

He's been right plenty of times. Every day, he's asked if he wants fries with that, and says yes. And he's right, he does want those fries. So, so badly.

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Meh. I live 5,000 miles from home. I can hop on there every so often and post pictures from trips and stuff. Far easier than sending pictures to each relative and friend one at a time.

 

And I get to see stuff in missing. Parties back home. Neice and nephew picks. Things like that.

 

It's not really entertainment. Just a tool at this point.

I can see it in that case. But the guys I know that are into it, not my kinda guys

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I question men of a certain age with Facebook.

I use Facebook to post stuff about my kids so that my family and friends know that my kids >>>>>> their kids. I thought that's what Facebook is for. :dunno:

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I can see it in that case. But the guys I know that are into it, not my kinda guys

I've got a few people that keep trying to get me onto Facebook, and give the same answer every time. I'm over thirty and a guy, I'm not joining Facebook.

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I've got a few people that keep trying to get me onto Facebook, and give the same answer every time. I'm over thirty and a guy, I'm not joining Facebook.

That's my feelings on it. To each his own

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