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DaBeerz

3 Stud RB and still not winning...

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Stud RB theory is dead, so dead.

 

I have the #1, #3 and #7 total FF points RBs and still struggle to win week to week. RB aren't carrying FF teams anymore like QBs and DST. (1/2 PPR 12 team keeper league).

 

Respectively Gurley, Bell and Ingram.

 

 

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I'm not buying it, there's something missing here. Those guys should be accounting for nearly 50 points every week. Your other positions must be shot, or you've had bad match ups. You should be winning with those guys, if you have anything resembling a decent team around them.

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Stud RB theory is dead, so dead.

 

I have the #1, #3 and #7 total FF points RBs and still struggle to win week to week. RB aren't carrying FF teams anymore like QBs and DST. (1/2 PPR 12 team keeper league).

 

Respectively Gurley, Bell and Ingram.

 

 

 

But who do the basement teams have?

 

My observation, without data gathering in earnest, is that you still really need to have one stud RB to have a good shot. They won't get you there themselves to the same degree that guys like Faulk, LT, Holmes, Edge, etc used to. But there are so few 3-down good guys that you do need one.

 

I'm in the playoffs due mostly to having AB and Nuk in my keeper league--no stud RB since Hunt stopped being one long long ago :(

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Stud RB theory is dead, so dead.

 

I have the #1, #3 and #7 total FF points RBs and still struggle to win week to week. RB aren't carrying FF teams anymore like QBs and DST. (1/2 PPR 12 team keeper league).

 

Respectively Gurley, Bell and Ingram.

 

Winning is completely out of your hands in FF, all you can do is score points. Where do you rank in points scored?

 

A guy in my league has 3rd most points and won 3 games all year, it’s completely random and a reason H2H is a joke.

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Agree with the above post.

 

14 teamer I'm in we are doing both H2h plus a total 17 week total points.

 

Two ways too win.

 

I'm 7-6, but second in points scored, but the kicker, number one points scored against.

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12 team ppr I have top 10 ranked players at every starting position in my lineup. 7-6 and about to get bounced 1st round because of Kamara.

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Considering how unreliable WRs are this season, I have a hard time buying that having stud RBs is a bad thing (I also have no idea how someone could struggle scoring points with those three RBs unless you brutally botched WR/QB).

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OP never said it was a struggle scoring points,

 

Said it was a struggle too win the matchups.

 

That's very easy too believe no matter the roster.

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Good point WEEPAWS. Here is my take, the 3 RBs are scoring the rest of his team isn't. So, to balance that out against your opponents you trade a stud RB to acquire help elsewhere (QB,WR,TE). What a concept!!! I can't stand these owners that sit back all year (while winning because of match-ups) and do nothing to improve their obvious weaknesses. Then reality sets in after a 1st round beat down from a more balanced team. My apologies to Dabeerz, I am not singling you out just guessing this might be part of the problem. I am the second highest scoring team in my league and finished 6 - 7 and the 6th and final seed (12 Tm lg). The 2 best teams (11-2) had the fewest points scored against them, one of them made zero trades. I forsee both out in 1st round. Our league is in its 16th season 5 times the #1 seed won. 4 of those 5 teams improved through trades.

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OP never said it was a struggle scoring points,

 

Said it was a struggle too win the matchups.

 

That's very easy too believe no matter the roster.

 

Then the issue has nothing to do with RBs and everything to do with luck.

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Stud RB theory is dead, so dead.

 

I have the #1, #3 and #7 total FF points RBs and still struggle to win week to week. RB aren't carrying FF teams anymore like QBs and DST. (1/2 PPR 12 team keeper league).

 

Respectively Gurley, Bell and Ingram.

 

 

Who are your QB, WR's, TE?

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Then the issue has nothing to do with RBs and everything to do with luck.

Of course.

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I don't think the answer is too trade away one of the OP Rbs.

 

So let's say they trade away one of those Rbs,,for a wr that over all scores less Ff points.

 

Then you will still lose your h2h matchups, but will also score less total points.

 

My 14 teamer is also a ppr league and I'm more Rb heavy, and I can start two good Rbs and flex the other.

 

Again Im second in total points, but first with points scored against me, so I'm 7-6.

 

But I'm still in the money for total points, for this league does both a h2h and total points.

 

No skill, it's all 100% luck. Can't have skill in something that you have truly no control over the outcome what so ever.

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I don't think the answer is too trade away one of the OP Rbs.

 

So let's say they trade away one of those Rbs,,for a wr that over all scores less Ff points.

 

Then you will still lose your h2h matchups, but will also score less total points.

 

My 14 teamer is also a ppr league and I'm more Rb heavy, and I can start two good Rbs and flex the other.

 

Again Im second in total points, but first with points scored against me, so I'm 7-6.

 

But I'm still in the money for total points, for this league does both a h2h and total points.

 

No skill, it's all 100% luck. Can't have skill in something that you have truly no control over the outcome what so ever.

I agree with this; wouldn't trade.

I like to have an advantage at specific position(s), and then piece together the rest vs trying to have a balanced roster. Knowing you have by far the best slew of RBs can keep you competitive every week, while you try to find sleeper WRs to supplement.

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.

 

No skill, it's all 100% luck. Can't have skill in something that you have truly no control over the outcome what so ever.

 

If only we had control over picking who we put on our teams and into our lineups, and some sort of aggregated data that pointed to the likelihood of certain of those players to score more points than others. I mean...if we had some sort of broadly reliable statistics...something that indicated good likelihood say that Bell would score more points than say Kerwynn Williams over the season. And then if we had the ability to actually choose Bell over Williams...

 

Man, if the game was like that, we'd have some control. So sad.

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It's a game of statistical analysis on the most likely outcomes, where short term results are much harder to predict than long term outcomes.

 

Nailed it.

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If only we had control over picking who we put on our teams and into our lineups, and some sort of aggregated data that pointed to the likelihood of certain of those players to score more points than others. I mean...if we had some sort of broadly reliable statistics...something that indicated good likelihood say that Bell would score more points than say Kerwynn Williams over the season. And then if we had the ability to actually choose Bell over Williams...

 

Man, if the game was like that, we'd have some control. So sad.

I'm sure no one has the skill set in ff as you do,,I know I don't.

 

I never thought that R Anderson would be out scoring M Evans in ppr this season, I'm sure you nailed it.

 

I never though that j Nelson would be 39 in points at the wr postion like you did, congrats on that one.

 

I never thought that Kamara would be third in ppr points at the Rb postion, you did I'm sure, you fantasy stud you.

 

I never thought that A Smith would be third in the QB postion this season so far , I'm sure you nailed this one too.

 

You need a new handle, mmmm mr FF skill will be it.

 

Thanks for the reply, and please engage us all about next season would you.

 

Merry Christmas and Happy new Year , God Bless

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My bad I guess in retrospect my post title was somewhat misleading. I did scrape into the playoffs as second seed in my division.

 

I have Wentz as QB. My WR are mid-tier trash with Evans, Funchess, D. Thomas, R. Woods and T. Williams.

 

I can win but only if Wentz and 2 of my 3 RB have great days.

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I'm sure no one has the skill set in ff as you do,,I know I don't.

 

I never thought that R Anderson would be out scoring M Evans in ppr this season, I'm sure you nailed it.

 

I never though that j Nelson would be 39 in points at the wr postion like you did, congrats on that one.

 

I never thought that Kamara would be third in ppr points at the Rb postion, you did I'm sure, you fantasy stud you.

 

I never thought that A Smith would be third in the QB postion this season so far , I'm sure you nailed this one too.

 

You need a new handle, mmmm mr FF skill will be it.

 

Thanks for the reply, and please engage us all about next season would you.

 

Merry Christmas and Happy new Year , God Bless

Making future prediction on historical data is an inexact science that is far from perfect, but some people are better than others. I've been in leagues long enough to realize that it's neither completely skill based or nor luck based. If it were either one, it would be the same people in the playoffs every year, or it would always be random people, when it's actually somewhere in between. In my leagues, we have yearly front runners, but sometimes they fall flat do to the luck involved. I like to compare fantasy to roulette. Every spin is highly variable, no one knows where it will land, but the green zeros give the house an advantage that may be minor when calculated on a per spin basis, yet, it is significant enough that it becomes just about unbeatable over time. Those that do research in fantasy have a slight advantage over those that don't, it's highly variable week to week, but over time it's fairly significant. Maybe I'll have a bad year and my future predictions on past results is completely off, and the guy who does the minimum wins the championship, but year to year, I bet my prediction based on my research beats him more times than he beats me.

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12 team ppr I have top 10 ranked players at every starting position in my lineup. 7-6 and about to get bounced 1st round because of Kamara.

 

I feel you man. I won the championship in a casual league with work colleagues last year on strong consistent week to week play from all my guys. Trying to defend this title, Kamara was my WW gem pickup of the year until this week. That one hurts, but no predicting that. I'm sure he burned a lot of us this week.

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I'm sure no one has the skill set in ff as you do,,I know I don't.

 

I never thought that R Anderson would be out scoring M Evans in ppr this season, I'm sure you nailed it.

 

I never though that j Nelson would be 39 in points at the wr postion like you did, congrats on that one.

 

I never thought that Kamara would be third in ppr points at the Rb postion, you did I'm sure, you fantasy stud you.

 

I never thought that A Smith would be third in the QB postion this season so far , I'm sure you nailed this one too.

 

You need a new handle, mmmm mr FF skill will be it.

 

Thanks for the reply, and please engage us all about next season would you.

 

Merry Christmas and Happy new Year , God Bless

 

And I've always thought that you had the ability to interpret a rather simple argument without creating a massive strawman.

 

You need a hew handle: We Pause...Before Intentionally Misreading Your Posts.

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Making future prediction on historical data is an inexact science that is far from perfect, but some people are better than others. I've been in leagues long enough to realize that it's neither completely skill based or nor luck based. If it were either one, it would be the same people in the playoffs every year, or it would always be random people, when it's actually somewhere in between. In my leagues, we have yearly front runners, but sometimes they fall flat do to the luck involved. I like to compare fantasy to roulette. Every spin is highly variable, no one knows where it will land, but the green zeros give the house an advantage that may be minor when calculated on a per spin basis, yet, it is significant enough that it becomes just about unbeatable over time. Those that do research in fantasy have a slight advantage over those that don't, it's highly variable week to week, but over time it's fairly significant. Maybe I'll have a bad year and my future predictions on past results is completely off, and the guy who does the minimum wins the championship, but year to year, I bet my prediction based on my research beats him more times than he beats me.

 

Sure I get it , I'm like everyone else on here, I do my preseason home work too.

 

And whe I go to my draft I have my cheat sheet also because I know it all.

 

And then the season starts, and oh yeah it's a skill too start Bell over K Willams, not it's the right move, no skill involved in making the right move.

 

And then the season playes out and players that where thought off too be studs aren't and those that weren't are.

 

And the luck that it takes too get that part off it right is indeed 100%.

 

I and look at all that hard work all that skill I spent trying too get it right, and blam im wrong again.

 

Luck.

 

Thanks for the reply.

 

Merry Christmas and Happy new Year. God bless.

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And I've always thought that you had the ability to interpret a rather simple argument without creating a massive strawman.

 

You need a hew handle: We Pause...Before Intentionally Misreading Your Posts.

Right on Mr Skill.

 

Will do.

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Making future prediction on historical data is an inexact science that is far from perfect, but some people are better than others. I've been in leagues long enough to realize that it's neither completely skill based or nor luck based. If it were either one, it would be the same people in the playoffs every year, or it would always be random people, when it's actually somewhere in between. In my leagues, we have yearly front runners, but sometimes they fall flat do to the luck involved. I like to compare fantasy to roulette. Every spin is highly variable, no one knows where it will land, but the green zeros give the house an advantage that may be minor when calculated on a per spin basis, yet, it is significant enough that it becomes just about unbeatable over time. Those that do research in fantasy have a slight advantage over those that don't, it's highly variable week to week, but over time it's fairly significant. Maybe I'll have a bad year and my future predictions on past results is completely off, and the guy who does the minimum wins the championship, but year to year, I bet my prediction based on my research beats him more times than he beats me.

 

Agreed, except that people who do research have a significant advantage when you track it over multiple years. (By 'research', I'm also counting now the somewhat lamentable fact that all league sites have all of that research one click away...it's easy for the lazy guy to get in ten seconds what we used to have to go digging for.)

 

Here's the argument:

 

1) If we have no control over the process at all, then the results would be truly random.

2) If the results were truly random, then we would see an even distribution of wins and losses across all teams in a given league over a significant duration of time.

3) We do not in fact see even distributions of wins. In every long-lasting league I've been in, there are easily identifiable groups of 'successful owners' and 'unsuccessful owners'.

4) There would not be owners who have markedly more success than other owners over time if the results were truly random.

5) Thus the results are not truly random.

6) Thus we have some control over the process.

 

 

For someone to say there is no control because we can't control the events that happen during the game is like saying the blackjack or poker player has no control over the card game because they can't control the shuffle. And if someone thinks card players have no control over the outcome of the card game...well, I want to play cards with them :)

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I read through this entire thread and found it pretty entertaining. Thank you!

Lol me too.

 

It's very good entertainment.

 

And Thank you.

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Sure I get it , I'm like everyone else on here, I do my preseason home work too.

 

And whe I go to my draft I have my cheat sheet also because I know it all.

 

And then the season starts, and oh yeah it's a skill too start Bell over K Willams, not it's the right move, no skill involved in making the right move.

 

And then the season playes out and players that where thought off too be studs aren't and those that weren't are.

 

And the luck that it takes too get that part off it right is indeed 100%.

 

I and look at all that hard work all that skill I spent trying too get it right, and blam im wrong again.

 

Luck.

 

Thanks for the reply.

 

Merry Christmas and Happy new Year. God bless.

 

So don't do your research. It's simple--if you think that there are absolutely no predictable trends because of anecdotal evidence and single events that run against trends (in other words, if you have absolutely no understanding of the entire field of statistics and the entire notion of probability), then your draft should be literally pulling names out of a hat.

 

A die with six sides on it will roll a number higher than 2 more often than a die with only 2 sides on it. Oops, I rolled them both once, and I got a 2 on both dice! The die with six sides stands NO CHANCE of rolling higher than the 2 sided die. This one time, when it didn't roll higher, PROVES that stats and trends are WORTHLESS!!!1!!1 LOL

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I don't think the answer is too trade away one of the OP Rbs.

 

So let's say they trade away one of those Rbs,,for a wr that over all scores less Ff points.

 

Then you will still lose your h2h matchups, but will also score less total points.

 

My 14 teamer is also a ppr league and I'm more Rb heavy, and I can start two good Rbs and flex the other.

 

Again Im second in total points, but first with points scored against me, so I'm 7-6.

 

But I'm still in the money for total points, for this league does both a h2h and total points.

 

No skill, it's all 100% luck. Can't have skill in something that you have truly no control over the outcome what so ever.

 

 

Wow now that's big news for J Gordon and even Coleman owners.

 

I might flex Coleman now.

 

 

 

Hey, waitaminute.

 

Why, in that other thread, are you saying that a cornerback being out would be an indication that you should start the WR?

 

It's all just luck! There's absolutely no reason to think that the WR will actually do better when the top CB is injured. There's no reason to think there's a better chance of production, because there's still a chance he won't do better. We can't rely on something like this to give us actually usable information to base our decisions on.

 

You have no control over the process. You should be making your start/sit decisions by pulling names from hats. And your add/drop decisions too. You should be flipping a coin for each player on your roster, and dropping him if it's tails. Then adding a random player drawn from a hat. According to your beliefs about this, that team has every chance of being just as successful!

 

:D (Not being a jerk, I still love you weepaws :))

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Agreed, except that people who do research have a significant advantage when you track it over multiple years. (By 'research', I'm also counting now the somewhat lamentable fact that all league sites have all of that research one click away...it's easy for the lazy guy to get in ten seconds what we used to have to go digging for.)

 

Here's the argument:

 

1) If we have no control over the process at all, then the results would be truly random.

2) If the results were truly random, then we would see an even distribution of wins and losses across all teams in a given league over a significant duration of time.

3) We do not in fact see even distributions of wins. In every long-lasting league I've been in, there are easily identifiable groups of 'successful owners' and 'unsuccessful owners'.

4) There would not be owners who have markedly more success than other owners over time if the results were truly random.

5) Thus the results are not truly random.

6) Thus we have some control over the process.

 

 

For someone to say there is no control because we can't control the events that happen during the game is like saying the blackjack or poker player has no control over the card game because they can't control the shuffle. And if someone thinks card players have no control over the outcome of the card game...well, I want to play cards with them :)

Yeah I'm not going to disagree or argue with you. My roulette analogy isn't perfect, while the house advantage is significant over time like in fantasy, I understand the control isn't the same. Guessing a number right isn't the same as playing the right person.

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If only we had control over picking who we put on our teams and into our lineups, and some sort of aggregated data that pointed to the likelihood of certain of those players to score more points than others. I mean...if we had some sort of broadly reliable statistics...something that indicated good likelihood say that Bell would score more points than say Kerwynn Williams over the season. And then if we had the ability to actually choose Bell over Williams...

 

Man, if the game was like that, we'd have some control. So sad.

 

:lol: Dats a good won.

 

I'm 9-4 and in the playoffs. Drafted M. Gordon at 1.7, Elliot at 2.14, Keenan Allen in the 3rd and Fournette in the 4th. Hit a HR with Thielen in the 11th round. Took Rivers late as my backup to Winston and that has paid off too. I'm all about the RBs this year and it is paying off so far. Plan on rinse and repeat for next season.

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Yeah I'm not going to disagree or argue with you. My roulette analogy isn't perfect, while the house advantage is significant over time like in fantasy, I understand the control isn't the same. Guessing a number right isn't the same as playing the right person.

 

Agreed. My only disagreement with you was the extent to which research/skill can help. In an individual game--there's still some benefit. Me swapping out a receiver who's QB got injured gives me a slightly better chance that week. Me paying attention to targets gives me a maybe slightly bigger advantage over the season. Me paying attention to offensive schemes and coaching changes, and all of these other small things adding up, gives me an advantage (if I do it well, always only if I do it well) over multiple seasons.

 

There are multiple people in my league that started in 2001 who have never won the whole thing, and people who have won it 3 and 4 times. That's not random.

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If only we had control over picking who we put on our teams and into our lineups, and some sort of aggregated data that pointed to the likelihood of certain of those players to score more points than others. I mean...if we had some sort of broadly reliable statistics...something that indicated good likelihood say that Bell would score more points than say Kerwynn Williams over the season. And then if we had the ability to actually choose Bell over Williams...

 

Man, if the game was like that, we'd have some control. So sad.

You have no control over whether your opponent scores more points than you week to week. A “good” FF player can only control his scoring output through good management, pickups, trades, starts etc. Heck even then it can backfire. You can do all of that perfectly and still win very few games is the point. Hence, wins and losses are largely random, especially in the playoffs. Oops concussion for Kamara, see ya next year.

 

Make logical common sense moves and hope you outscore your opponent, that’s all you can do. Have fun with FF, we are in control of VERY little of it.

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There are multiple people in my league that started in 2001 who have never won the whole thing, and people who have won it 3 and 4 times. That's not random.

Yes it is. A guy in my league has played 3 years and won 2 titles. All his picks pan out, no injuries, no adversity. Starts the same defense every week no matter the opponent. Thinks hes a genius. This year similar, had a good team, no injuries. He made his first roster decision in 3 years...traded Melvin Gordon for Tarik Cohen and Chris Hogan. Mind you...this was week 8 or so, Cohen and Hogan hadnt been relevant in a month and Gordon was a top 4 RB. His first roster move and he essentially punts his whole season. He had a winning record. Dont care how many titles he has, he sucks at FF.

 

Good owners put themselves in favorable positions to make the playoffs. But actually winning the playoff games is almost completely up to chance.

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Yes it is. A guy in my league has played 3 years and won 2 titles. All his picks pan out, no injuries, no adversity. Starts the same defense every week no matter the opponent. Thinks hes a genius. This year similar, had a good team, no injuries. He made his first roster decision in 3 years...traded Melvin Gordon for Tarik Cohen and Chris Hogan. Mind you...this was week 8 or so, Cohen and Hogan hadnt been relevant in a month and Gordon was a top 4 RB. His first roster move and he essentially punts his whole season. He had a winning record. Dont care how many titles he has, he sucks at FF.

 

Good owners put themselves in favorable positions to make the playoffs. But actually winning the playoff games is almost completely up to chance.

 

There is certainly an element of randomness to FF, what percentage is random outcome vs. skill, well who knows.

 

I had a friend who won our league in his first year. He missed the draft and we had to draft him a team based on next best available player from a community ranking list. He made almost no WW pickups, he didn't adjust his starting lineup all year. He was such a bad owner that despite fluking his way to winning the championship he wasn't invited back the following year.

 

You can't convince me that's not random. Almost every person in my league does their homework, scours the WW, drafts as reasonably well as can be expected, and makes relatively sensible trades. Sure we have a couple idiot drafters and the same ones are tanking in their record and missed the playoffs, but generally, If you have a league of relatively equally "skilled" owners, the random element of HTH matchups and weekly performances is all that's left.

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Yes it is. A guy in my league has played 3 years and won 2 titles. All his picks pan out, no injuries, no adversity. Starts the same defense every week no matter the opponent. Thinks hes a genius. This year similar, had a good team, no injuries. He made his first roster decision in 3 years...traded Melvin Gordon for Tarik Cohen and Chris Hogan. Mind you...this was week 8 or so, Cohen and Hogan hadnt been relevant in a month and Gordon was a top 4 RB. His first roster move and he essentially punts his whole season. He had a winning record. Dont care how many titles he has, he sucks at FF.

 

Good owners put themselves in favorable positions to make the playoffs. But actually winning the playoff games is almost completely up to chance.

 

No, it's not. Do the math. It's not 100% predictable. But that's nowhere near the same thing as saying that it's random.

 

Your very claim that there can be 'good owners' relies on the fact that it's not random. Your claim that a good owner can put themselves in a favorable position also relies on the fact that it's not random. Is there unpredictability? Sure. It is all in our control? Far from it. But significant things are in our control.

 

If not, there would be no 'good' owners. There are no 'good' die rollers, or 'good' lottery winners, or people who are good at war, the kid's card game. Those are all random.

 

There are people who are good at FF. Just like there are people who are good at poker, blackjack, etc. Significant parts left up to chance. But significant parts left up to decisions based on significantly predictable events.

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There is certainly an element of randomness to FF, what percentage is random outcome vs. skill, well who knows.

 

I had a friend who won our league in his first year. He missed the draft and we had to draft him a team based on next best available player from a community ranking list. He made almost no WW pickups, he didn't adjust his starting lineup all year. He was such a bad owner that despite fluking his way to winning the championship he wasn't invited back the following year.

 

You can't convince me that's not random. Almost every person in my league does their homework, scours the WW, drafts as reasonably well as can be expected, and makes relatively sensible trades. Sure we have a couple idiot drafters and the same ones are tanking in their record and missed the playoffs, but generally, If you have a league of relatively equally "skilled" owners, the random element of HTH matchups and weekly performances is all that's left.

 

I'm not saying some events, taken by themselves, are not random. I'm still just rejecting the claim that we have "no control" over what happens. That's ridiculous.

 

I guarantee that if you and I create 100 teams at the beginning of a season--you choosing yours carefully as you would in a draft, and me literally randomly creating teams from lists of all the players in the NFL--that your teams will overwhelmingly beat my teams. Might a few of my teams do better than a few of yours? Of course. But that's no in any way the same thing as saying that your picking and choosing based on stats and trends would in no way be better than random picking. That's absurd.

 

That's all I'm saying. If we had no control, then wins over time would be evenly distributed across all players over time. That's how the world works. But there are people who win a lot more often, and people who lose a lot more often, and that winning and losing is strongly correlated to things like research and paying attention.

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You have no control over whether your opponent scores more points than you week to week. A “good” FF player can only control his scoring output through good management, pickups, trades, starts etc. Heck even then it can backfire. You can do all of that perfectly and still win very few games is the point. Hence, wins and losses are largely random, especially in the playoffs. Oops concussion for Kamara, see ya next year.

 

Make logical common sense moves and hope you outscore your opponent, that’s all you can do. Have fun with FF, we are in control of VERY little of it.

 

True, you have no control over what your opponent does (except psychologically :))

 

And again, pointing to one event here, two events there, that did not turn out as expected is in no way proof of complete randomness.

Go watch basketball players shooting around--pick one player. He just missed a shot. Is that proof that it's just random whether he makes it or not? Watch them for a solid month, and then pick the guy who makes the most shots, and the guy who makes the least. Put them in a competition against each other. What if it turns out that the guy who made the least shots in that last month beat the guy who made the most? Does that mean that their shooting is 'random'? No skill involved? They have no way to influence whether they make the shot or not?

 

They do not have 100% guaranteed accuracy.

There are aspects of their shooting not in their control--including even some of the motions of your own body, but also the bounce off the rim, etc.

The unexpected will often happen.

 

None of that is proof that shooting a basketball is 'random'.

 

And now you say "because he's actually shooting the ball. When we play FF, we're not on the field." And I say "I'm not saying that, I'm saying that we do make start/sit decisions, and those are in important ways predictable."

 

 

Here's the test: go ahead and bench your best players this week. If you think you have no control, that it's all random, then you will have an equal chance of winning if you do that. Benching AB will not mean anything to your chances of winning vs starting him. So go ahead--the belief that no skill or control is involved at all leads necessarily to the belief that benching your best players will not affect your chances of winning at all. So go ahead and do it :D

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I think it's an interesting discussion.

 

What percentage of FF success do you attribute to skill or general football knowledge, vs. Luck or random weekly performances?

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Agreed. My only disagreement with you was the extent to which research/skill can help. In an individual game--there's still some benefit. Me swapping out a receiver who's QB got injured gives me a slightly better chance that week. Me paying attention to targets gives me a maybe slightly bigger advantage over the season. Me paying attention to offensive schemes and coaching changes, and all of these other small things adding up, gives me an advantage (if I do it well, always only if I do it well) over multiple seasons.

 

There are multiple people in my league that started in 2001 who have never won the whole thing, and people who have won it 3 and 4 times. That's not random.

Skill will always give you an advantage over luck. Doesn't matter if it's per week, year or years. The only point I'm making is that the longer the period you are looking at, the more influence skill has and the less influence luck has. It's pretty standard in statistics, if skill gives you better odds, long term it proves out better than short term.

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