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Is D. Johnson worth 3 picks?


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#1 kujerry

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Posted 20 June 2018 - 06:46 PM

Here's the situation.  14 team 2 keeper league.  PPR, Start:  QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR/RB/TE, D, K

 

I have the 5th pick in the upcoming draft. 

Keepers are

D. Johnson, Lose my 1st Rounder

M. Gordon, Lose my 4th Rounder

 

So I trade D.Johnson and my 10th &13th round pick

 

I get 

His 2nd Round, 3rd Round and 6th round picks

 

So I would get two picks in the 2nd, two picks in the 3rd and 2 picks in the 6th

 

The team offering the trade has the 14th pick in the draft.  He is keeping L. Bell, so he is willing to give up all those picks to pair up Bell and Johnson he won't have a pick until round 4

 

Now i won't have a first round pick since D. Johnson is in that spot.  Keeping Melvin gordon makes up for losing my first rounder and I'm gaining 2 picks in the 2nd, 3rd, and 6th, 

 

hope its understandable, its kind of a different trade starting the year.

 

thanks


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#2 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 21 June 2018 - 05:31 AM

14 team 2 keeper. So approximately the top 28 players are off the board. Idk how many people have 1st round picks still available, let's say 7, so that's 35 players off the board until you pick next. Nope, not imo. Johnson is the best rb in the league. At worst top 2

#3 Kopy

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Posted 21 June 2018 - 06:25 AM

14 team 2 keeper. So approximately the top 28 players are off the board. Idk how many people have 1st round picks still available, let's say 7, so that's 35 players off the board until you pick next. Nope, not imo. Johnson is the best rb in the league. At worst top 2

I was going to say the same thing here.
Everything makes sense on both sides of the trade. It's after that when I would be alittle worried. Because even though you got 2-2's and 2-3's. Once you factor in all the keepers, I'm not so sure the talent depth would be there to justify trading DJ.
And I think that's why he's offering that type of deal. Because he's well aware of this.

To be quit honest. Even though I'm not his biggest fan. I don't think id even do that deal for Gordon.
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#4 oldtimer

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Posted 26 June 2018 - 07:53 PM

14 team 2 keeper. So approximately the top 28 players are off the board. Idk how many people have 1st round picks still available, let's say 7, so that's 35 players off the board until you pick next. Nope, not imo. Johnson is the best rb in the league. At worst top 2

I may consider the deal.  This is why;  In a Keeper League, it isn't necessarily the case that the top 28 players are off the board.  What you need to look at is the RB position and how many of them are going to be off the board.  The top 28 overall players do not include a QB, however, In most keeper leagues, several of the top QB's are often kept.  So, between 3 to 4 QB's being kept, at least one or two owners keeping someone that isn't in the top 28, and you likely have the top 20-22 guys off the board.  Do you start two RB's?  Is it a SuperFlex league?  You can get quality WR's later this year, but in the drafts I have participated in, the top RB's FLY off the board.  Even the rookies went higher than their current ADP.  Just food for thought.  If I was certain I could get another RB with my first, I would take this deal.  If not, I'd pass.



#5 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 05:04 AM

I may consider the deal.  This is why;  In a Keeper League, it isn't necessarily the case that the top 28 players are off the board.  What you need to look at is the RB position and how many of them are going to be off the board.  The top 28 overall players do not include a QB, however, In most keeper leagues, several of the top QB's are often kept.  So, between 3 to 4 QB's being kept, at least one or two owners keeping someone that isn't in the top 28, and you likely have the top 20-22 guys off the board.  Do you start two RB's?  Is it a SuperFlex league?  You can get quality WR's later this year, but in the drafts I have participated in, the top RB's FLY off the board.  Even the rookies went higher than their current ADP.  Just food for thought.  If I was certain I could get another RB with my first, I would take this deal.  If not, I'd pass.


I would imagine the top running backs are all being kept. In a 14 team league, one super star on a roster can make all the difference in a season. If this was a 10 team. League, it would be a bit different, although I still wouldn't do it. DJohns is an absolute monster.

#6 seafoam1

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 10:17 AM

I sometimes think that some fantasy players would rather have the fun of having hope that the rookie players they pick hit it big over anyone else currently in the league. Especially when drafting WRs, TEs, QBs at an ADP that would be considered 3rd, 4th, 5th round redraft picks over having an NFL proven young stud RB.  WRs, QBs, and TEs all usually need a few years before you can begin to see if they are going to be good or not.
 
Let's say you are just going to use those extra 3 picks to grab RBs. What are the chances one of them become a David Johnson? Even David Johnson didn't go in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th rounds in a redraft in his rookie year. I got him for the minimum auction value in my contract keeper league when he was a rookie. That's what a longshot it is to find a superstar at times later in the draft. There are definitely players that go on to be great that come out every year later in the draft, but the chances of getting them is not all that great. There are so many factors that go into it. 
 
And Johnson only has 2 full seasons of playing time in his NFL career. Given that his injury was only a wrist deal, there is not even any risk around that this year. And if you don't want him because his team is not being considered that great, think about what type of offensive garbage Barkley is going to  be in this year? And no one knows if he will even be any good in the NFL. 
 
All in all, if you don't really want Johnson, wait til after the draft and offer up trades based upon your own view of the players on other teams rather than taking what falls to you in the draft. 

#7 ralphster

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 01:34 PM

@ OP: Are you going to have prior knowledge of the players being kept so you'll know who's available?

Because 2.05, 2.14, 3.05, 3.14 no 4th, 5.05, 6.05 & 6.14 does not add up to enough value without a much better idea of who's going to be there in the 2nd & 3rd rounds.
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#8 kujerry

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Posted 28 June 2018 - 06:55 AM

@ OP: Are you going to have prior knowledge of the players being kept so you'll know who's available?

Because 2.05, 2.14, 3.05, 3.14 no 4th, 5.05, 6.05 & 6.14 does not add up to enough value without a much better idea of who's going to be there in the 2nd & 3rd rounds.


Yes I would know all keepers a week before draft.
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#9 Ray_T

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Posted 02 July 2018 - 11:05 PM

@ OP: Are you going to have prior knowledge of the players being kept so you'll know who's available?

Because 2.05, 2.14, 3.05, 3.14 no 4th, 5.05, 6.05 & 6.14 does not add up to enough value without a much better idea of who's going to be there in the 2nd & 3rd rounds.

:thumbsup:   This.

 

and I'd go so far as to say no first round pick=you probably shouldnt even think about this deal.


3 keeper, 12 team league Standard scoring with QB getting -1 pt for an interception & fumbles 5 points for a defensive safety & 6 points for a defensive TD.

Start 2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Kicker, one Def/Sp Tms

 

 

 

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#10 polecatt

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 08:37 AM

I know DJ and his potential but I would just have a very hard time giving up so much for a guy who has really only had one good season, two years ago, coming off a season ending injury.

I would do this deal.



#11 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 09:24 AM

I know DJ and his potential but I would just have a very hard time giving up so much for a guy who has really only had one good season, two years ago, coming off a season ending injury.
I would do this deal.


One great season and another half of a great season.

#12 polecatt

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 09:34 AM

So one and a half good seasons and one and a half bad



#13 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 10:34 AM

So one and a half good seasons and one and a half bad


If you want to get technical, the first half of his rookie year he was still incredible. If you look at his production per touch it was excellent

#14 polecatt

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 11:20 AM

If you want to get technical, the first half of his rookie year he was still incredible. If you look at his production per touch it was excellent

Maybe so but in most leagues you get points for total numbers not per touch averages



#15 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 02:09 PM

Maybe so but in most leagues you get points for total numbers not per touch averages


Awesome :thumbsup:

#16 seafoam1

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 05:48 PM

So one and a half good seasons and one and a half bad


One and a half bad? What were those?

#17 weepaws

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 06:12 PM

Here's the situation.  14 team 2 keeper league.  PPR, Start:  QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR/RB/TE, D, K
 
I have the 5th pick in the upcoming draft. 
Keepers are
D. Johnson, Lose my 1st Rounder
M. Gordon, Lose my 4th Rounder
 
So I trade D.Johnson and my 10th &13th round pick
 
I get 
His 2nd Round, 3rd Round and 6th round picks
 
So I would get two picks in the 2nd, two picks in the 3rd and 2 picks in the 6th
 
The team offering the trade has the 14th pick in the draft.  He is keeping L. Bell, so he is willing to give up all those picks to pair up Bell and Johnson he won't have a pick until round 4
 
Now i won't have a first round pick since D. Johnson is in that spot.  Keeping Melvin gordon makes up for losing my first rounder and I'm gaining 2 picks in the 2nd, 3rd, and 6th, 
 
hope its understandable, its kind of a different trade starting the year.
 
thanks


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For what it’s worth, I think I would keep the two first round Rbs.

Great question, thanks.
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#18 polecatt

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 08:43 AM

One and a half bad? What were those?

He wasn't very good last season at all was he?

His rookie season he was only good half a season.

Do the math on that one...



#19 seafoam1

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 08:54 AM

He wasn't very good last season at all was he?
His rookie season he was only good half a season.
Do the math on that one...

Ok. So you count a guy not playing as a reflection of him being a bad player. That's some solid work on your part. Maybe you can grab him in the late 8th round in your draft. That is if everyone in your league is as smart as you. Obviously Booker and Lacy and Tolbert and Burkhead etc., should all be drafted ahead of Johnson based on last year's results.

#20 polecatt

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 09:09 AM

Ok. So you count a guy not playing as a reflection of him being a bad player. That's some solid work on your part. Maybe you can grab him in the late 8th round in your draft. That is if everyone in your league is as smart as you. Obviously Booker and Lacy and Tolbert and Burkhead etc., should all be drafted ahead of Johnson based on last year's results.

So you would consider last season a good season for him?

I wish you were in my league...



#21 seafoam1

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 12:10 PM

So you would consider last season a good season for him?
I wish you were in my league...

Yes. I would draft David Johnson. Last year pre-injury and this year round 1.

#22 polecatt

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 02:30 PM

So you consider a guy who gets injured for the season in the first game as having a good season?

I have never said he's not a good player or not even worth a high pick, I said I wouldn't trade the farm for a guy who has only been good half of the time.



#23 lesjroza

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Posted 07 July 2018 - 05:45 AM

Here's the situation.  14 team 2 keeper league.  PPR, Start:  QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR/RB/TE, D, K

 

I have the 5th pick in the upcoming draft. 

Keepers are

D. Johnson, Lose my 1st Rounder

M. Gordon, Lose my 4th Rounder

 

So I trade D.Johnson and my 10th &13th round pick

 

I get 

His 2nd Round, 3rd Round and 6th round picks

 

So I would get two picks in the 2nd, two picks in the 3rd and 2 picks in the 6th

 

The team offering the trade has the 14th pick in the draft.  He is keeping L. Bell, so he is willing to give up all those picks to pair up Bell and Johnson he won't have a pick until round 4

 

Now i won't have a first round pick since D. Johnson is in that spot.  Keeping Melvin gordon makes up for losing my first rounder and I'm gaining 2 picks in the 2nd, 3rd, and 6th, 

 

hope its understandable, its kind of a different trade starting the year.

 

thanks

 

 

A crucial part of the equation is roster size.

 

In a 14 team league, a team with a star and near elite- above average starters at every position can be just as overwhelming as a team with multiple stud starters in a 12 team league..........especially once the byes and injuries start to hit. 

 

If its a competitive league from top to bottom and depending on how much you are willing to weight this year vs the future..........

 

16 roster slots stick with studs

 

18 slots about equal value on this deal

 

20+ roster slots, trade the stud and roll with the depth you will have

 

The difference between how hard it is to get and maintain quality plays on the WW in competitive deep roster 14 team leagues compared to 12 team leagues is hard to appreciate until you experience it.

 

Even in a deep league if there are a number of owners who are only half paying attention always stick with the studs because you will be able to easily improve and fill out your lineup over the course of the season. 



#24 Ray_T

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 04:09 PM

for what it is worth I would draft him in round 1.  no problem at all with that.

 

he didnt just have one good season.   he had one hell of a spectacular season where he blew the doors off.

 

his rookie season was good, but not great in the first half, very good in the second half.

 

Last year he was hurt, I'd suggest it is neither good nor bad because he didnt play. theres nothing to judge him on there.

 

but the main reason I will draft him is that he passes the eye test.  If you have watched him play you will realize the guy just does things other RB's cannot.


3 keeper, 12 team league Standard scoring with QB getting -1 pt for an interception & fumbles 5 points for a defensive safety & 6 points for a defensive TD.

Start 2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Kicker, one Def/Sp Tms

 

 

 

Also expert Fly Fisherman and story teller.


#25 Kent

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Posted 14 July 2018 - 07:32 PM

So you would consider last season a good season for him?
I wish you were in my league...

He didnt have a season last year. Youre being obtuse.

I have him rated 1.1 by the way.

#26 scottsind

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Posted 14 July 2018 - 09:14 PM

A lot of insight in this thread. I am going to keep it simple and just say keep DJ. His potential wins you match ups by himself. Even if Arizona is horrible he will still eat and rack up yardage. I actually think he and Zeke have the best shots at fantasy MVP this year.

10 man league keepers:  David Johnson & Antonio Brown

12 man league keepers:  Antonio Brown & Aaron Rodgers


#27 polecatt

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Posted 14 July 2018 - 11:25 PM

He didnt have a season last year. Youre being obtuse.

I have him rated 1.1 by the way.

RB is loaded this season. No way I would spend the top pick on a guy who just missed a full season and is on a terrible offense.

Certainly not when there are numerous RBs with just as much potential on good offenses and haven't been out of football for nearly two seasons.



#28 seafoam1

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Posted 15 July 2018 - 01:53 AM

RB is loaded this season. No way I would spend the top pick on a guy who just missed a full season and is on a terrible offense.
Certainly not when there are numerous RBs with just as much potential on good offenses and haven't been out of football for nearly two seasons.


Oh my.

#29 Kopy

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Posted 15 July 2018 - 07:18 AM

People spend so much time and effort trying to find the next Marshall Faulk, Priest Holmes, LT2, ect....
Then when they finally find him. They want to let him go?
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