Mariota is going to cement his next contract this season.
He was on a trash roster his first year. Looked pretty good for a rookie.
Last year, he was held back by a system that was the polar opposite of one designed to his strengths.
This year, with competent oc, hes going to shine. Been working hard on his footwork. Coming in healthy for a change. Should have a decent supporting cast.
The leadership and clutch he showed last year was a great sign last year. He will leave Jameis in the dust this season.
You could be right and I don't discount the possibility that it can happen they way you describe, but if I were a betting man, I'd bet against Mariota. I think the bust potential is higher for both Winston and Mariota than it is for either one (or both), to pan out.
I think the odds on favorite of both teams is that come 2023, they will have a new QB, just that the Bucs will (hopefully), have had their new one for 3 year while the Titans will be replacing Mariota at that point in time with very little to show for it... see the Saints from 2012-2017 as an example of what I'm talking about (two 11-win seasons, four 7 win seasons, and a 2-2 playoff record).