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Early Observations


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#1 Mike FF Today

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Posted 26 June 2018 - 12:21 AM

It's that time of year. Doug is digesting the hype and mining what we can gain from all the optimism spewing from each NFL city. NFC vesion coming next week...

 

Early Observations - AFC


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#2 nobody

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Posted 26 June 2018 - 10:57 AM

I love these articles.  I hope he talks about all the Chad Hansen love.



#3 The Football Guru

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Posted 26 June 2018 - 02:02 PM

I love these articles.  I hope he talks about all the Chad Hansen love.

 

I know. I should have  :doh:



#4 Mike FF Today

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Posted 03 July 2018 - 09:17 AM

NFC version is posted.

 

Doug - If I'm reading your thougths on McCaffrey correctly, you think he's currently being valued at his ceiling (ADP 2.06) given all your noted "IFs"?  


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#5 The Football Guru

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Posted 03 July 2018 - 10:50 AM

NFC version is posted.
 
Doug - If I'm reading your thougths on McCaffrey correctly, you think he's currently being valued at his ceiling (ADP 2.06) given all your noted "IFs"?

I suppose that's fair to say. I don't question Mccaffrey's ability to handle a heavier load, but I can see the Panthers stopping short of giving him 200 carries and they didn't exactly do much to improve the o-line in the offseason.

#6 TBayXXXVII

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Posted 03 July 2018 - 10:58 AM

After reading that, McCaffrey is officially on my Do Not Draft list.  Bigger muscles generally mean bigger bust.



#7 Vikings4ever

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Posted 03 July 2018 - 11:02 AM

After reading that, McCaffrey is officially on my Do Not Draft list.  Bigger muscles generally mean bigger bust.


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#8 Vikings4ever

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Posted 03 July 2018 - 11:12 AM

About the Vikings 3rd down back:

 

In the past, they've tended to rely on the back they trust to pass block. Which is why Matt Asiata lasted so long, and McKinnon's opportunities were limited even though he is a very dangerous weapon in those situations.

 

I don't have third down snap % in front of me, so I'm not sure how Murray was used in those situations, but I wouldn't knee jerk assume Cook will be handed 3rd and long opportunities.


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#9 seafoam1

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Posted 03 July 2018 - 11:30 AM

After reading that, McCaffrey is officially on my Do Not Draft list.  Bigger muscles generally mean bigger bust.


I am all in on McCaffrey in my PPR league. I so hope that my league mates are reading the same things you guys are.

#10 The Football Guru

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Posted 03 July 2018 - 11:49 AM

After reading that, McCaffrey is officially on my Do Not Draft list.  Bigger muscles generally mean bigger bust.

 

I am all in on McCaffrey in my PPR league. I so hope that my league mates are reading the same things you guys are.

 

His goal was to add lower-body strength to break more tackles. While we didn't exactly get to see a shot of his lower half, I'm going to assume for the moment he did so. In my opinion, whether he lives up to his ADP or not comes down to if Carolina follows through and gives him 250-plus touches. The guy was already a good inside runner (one year in the NFL isn't going to change my mind on that after watching him run inside so often at Stanford), so we need to see more opportunity. (The guy had fewer touches than J-Stew last year!) Whether CM is a top-five RB or just outside the top 10 this season depends almost solely on Norv recognizing where Mike Shula went wrong.



#11 Ray_T

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Posted 03 July 2018 - 01:12 PM

the real Question here is :

 

by putting on weight, are we going to see a slower McCaffrey?

 

I always worry when a fast player puts on weight.  it was the speed that got them here, and now they are going for power.

 

sometimes this will work, sometimes not.  

 

but ideally I would rather see a small weight gain with the speed remaining intact.

 

 

 

 

After reading that, McCaffrey is officially on my Do Not Draft list.  Bigger muscles generally mean bigger bust.


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#12 TBayXXXVII

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Posted 03 July 2018 - 01:18 PM

the real Question here is :

 

by putting on weight, are we going to see a slower McCaffrey?

 

I always worry when a fast player puts on weight.  it was the speed that got them here, and now they are going for power.

 

sometimes this will work, sometimes not.  

 

but ideally I would rather see a small weight gain with the speed remaining intact.

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, this is what I'm thinking.  Of course Doug very well could be right (and I certainly don't discount that possibility), but historically, it's been very shaky for players who've added muscle in the off-season.  I'm thinking that I would rather look to different players with my 2nd and 3rd round draft picks than McCaffrey because of this.  I'd consider him in the 4th and would take him in the 5th, but my guess is that he won't fall that far.



#13 The Football Guru

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Posted 03 July 2018 - 02:10 PM

the real Question here is :

 

by putting on weight, are we going to see a slower McCaffrey?

 

I always worry when a fast player puts on weight.  it was the speed that got them here, and now they are going for power.

 

sometimes this will work, sometimes not.  

 

but ideally I would rather see a small weight gain with the speed remaining intact.

 

 

Yes, this is what I'm thinking.  Of course Doug very well could be right (and I certainly don't discount that possibility), but historically, it's been very shaky for players who've added muscle in the off-season.  I'm thinking that I would rather look to different players with my 2nd and 3rd round draft picks than McCaffrey because of this.  I'd consider him in the 4th and would take him in the 5th, but my guess is that he won't fall that far.

 

I get the concern with the added weight b/c it does seem to be a bad thing more often than not. But I would ask everyone to consider that CM probably can afford to sacrifice a bit of quickness and explosion b/c he has plenty of both. What's funny is people say someone like Ronald Jones needs to add muscle and he's pretty much the same size CM was last year (yet people don't seem at all concerned about Jones losing quickness and explosion).

 

Pictures only tell so little of the story. Let's see how quick he looks in the preseason.



#14 TBayXXXVII

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Posted 03 July 2018 - 02:56 PM

 

 

I get the concern with the added weight b/c it does seem to be a bad thing more often than not. But I would ask everyone to consider that CM probably can afford to sacrifice a bit of quickness and explosion b/c he has plenty of both. What's funny is people say someone like Ronald Jones needs to add muscle and he's pretty much the same size CM was last year (yet people don't seem at all concerned about Jones losing quickness and explosion).

 

Pictures only tell so little of the story. Let's see how quick he looks in the preseason.

 

This is true, we have yet to see him play at the new weight.



#15 seafoam1

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Posted 03 July 2018 - 03:00 PM

After hearing all of this, I am leaning more towards McCaffrey. Last year there were questions on how he would hold up. This year Carolina is working to get him even more involved after a stellar rookie season.

#16 Ray_T

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Posted 03 July 2018 - 03:59 PM

 

 

I get the concern with the added weight b/c it does seem to be a bad thing more often than not. But I would ask everyone to consider that CM probably can afford to sacrifice a bit of quickness and explosion b/c he has plenty of both. What's funny is people say someone like Ronald Jones needs to add muscle and he's pretty much the same size CM was last year (yet people don't seem at all concerned about Jones losing quickness and explosion).

 

Pictures only tell so little of the story. Let's see how quick he looks in the preseason.

I guess only time will tell.   but the general rule is this:

 

the faster you put on the weight, the more likely it is it will affect your speed in a negative way.  

 

That being said, do we know how much weight he has added?   

 

a gain of 5-  10 lbs, is probably nothing to worry about.  after that, the odds of his speed dropping goes up.


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#17 The Football Guru

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Posted 03 July 2018 - 04:01 PM

I guess only time will tell.   but the general rule is this:

 

the faster you put on the weight, the more likely it is it will affect your speed in a negative way.  

 

That being said, do we know how much weight he has added?   

 

a gain of 5-  10 lbs, is probably nothing to worry about.  after that, the odds of his speed dropping goes up.

 

Agreed. I think we are talking five pounds. I think he's supposed to be up to 208.



#18 nobody

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Posted 03 July 2018 - 04:26 PM

Aaron Jones suspended two games post publication.



#19 The Football Guru

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Posted 03 July 2018 - 05:40 PM

Aaron Jones suspended two games post publication.

If only the NFL could have announced this about 24 hours earlier.  :doh: