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Sorry another Hunt Question: Is Barkley really a no brainer over Hunt ?


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#121 Hardcore troubadour

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 01:19 PM

Seafoam getting crushed.

#122 seafoam1

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 01:30 PM

Seafoam getting crushed.


What does that even mean? Are you taking Beckham over an RB in the first?

#123 Hardcore troubadour

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 01:48 PM

What does that even mean? Are you taking Beckham over an RB in the first?


If I'm 11? Yes over M Gordon.

#124 tanatastic

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 01:53 PM

If I'm 11? Yes over M Gordon.


I’d be shocked if he makes it to 11 in a ppr league.

#125 seafoam1

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 02:02 PM

This should probably be it's own topic, but it's much easier to pencil in Beckham's stats as well as to project improvement for the giants offense from 2017.  In his three full seasons, Beckham's career lows are 91 catches, 1305 yards, and 10 TD's  That's his floor this year barring injury.  He was on pace to replicate the TD and reception numbers last year, though his YPC did drop off some, but that's a 4 game sample size.  So I do find it hard to predict regression for Beckham when everything seems to the Giants being an improved offense.  Remember Giants now have the vikings OC as a head coach.  So we know the offense supports a high target WR, based on last year's vikings stats.

 

Minnesota, offensively, is in uncharted waters.  The OC was Philly's QB coach last year.  I'm assuming he brings the Reid/Peterson offensive philosophy and one assumes Cousins is an upgrade at QB.  Given that the Philly system is more balanced in distributing targets, (where the previous system seemed to have a preferred WR1), I agree Diggs could benefit from a more even split of the targets with Theilen.  However all that is really unknown at this point and you've got to mesh a new system with a new QB so it's really hard to project numbers for the Vikings receivers and TE's until you see who Cousins likes to throw the ball to and how balanced the system really is.  If you look at the eagles from last year,  it's really hard to find a way that Theilin / Diggs approaches what Beckham will do.  If I split the Theilen/Diggs 2017 pie equally that's about 75 receptions / 1050 yards each.  I think any additional production from a bump in stats for the Vikings passing game will primarily come from the TE spot as Cousins has always utilized TE's and the Reid/Peterson system has as well.  I'm not sure Rudolph is typical TE for that system but given the OC and the QB he could be looking at a 40-50% increase in targets.  Again it's hard to project how the system will fit the talent but there's a case to be made that Rudolph is the most likely to benefit.

 

 

I don't understand how Beckham's floor is 91 catches while his catch % has been steadily dropping. Like I said, with a new RB that everyone is touting to have major impact and consistent targets,  and a TE that is highly praised for his catches, how does that help Beckham get consistent targets equaling his last full year. 169 is a ton of targets. They went from a one man show, and now are considered by many here to having multiple weapons on offense, but yet you still say that Beckham's floor is getting a huge amount of targets. If you think the Giants are going to run 20 more plays on offense per game then I guess they are simply a great offense now. And Manning will be a #1 QB, and Beckham will be a #1 WR, and Barkley will be a #1 RB, and Engram will be a #1 TE, and the Giants are poised to be a top seed in the NFC. Because they would have to be if all those targets are there for everyone.  

 

I'll take the success that possibly comes from the Minnesota offense, over any success that possibly comes from the Giants offense this year. Including receivers. And I never said that Diggs will have a better year than Beckham, just that it could be closer than most people think. 



#126 seafoam1

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 02:14 PM

If I'm 11? Yes over M Gordon.

Ok. So this stud of a player is #11 on your list. Ok. I tend to go after RBs first in my strategy. I would take Hunt or Gordon over him. WRs are way easier to come by throughout the year. Do you think that is not true?

 

Seems like you would rather have Beckham and Howard or Freeman over Hunt and Devante Adams. Or something like that. And that's fine, but there is no way you can say for sure if it will work out better. 



#127 TBayXXXVII

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 02:39 PM

Over the last 30 day, fantasy football calculator shows this for 12-team/PPR ADP

  1. Todd Gurley
  2. LeVeon Bell
  3. Ezekiel Elliott
  4. David Johnson
  5. Antonio Brown
  6. Alvin Kamara
  7. Saquon Barkley
  8. DeAndre Hopkins
  9. Melvin Gordon
  10. Odell Beckham Jr
  11. Kareem Hunt
  12. Leonard Fournette
  13. Dalvin Cook
  14. Julio Jones
  15. Michael Thomas
Fantasy Pros is showing this...
  1. Todd Gurley
  2. LeVeon Bell
  3. Ezekiel Elliott
  4. David Johnson
  5. Alvin Kamara
  6. Saquon Barkley
  7. Antonio Brown
  8. DeAndre Hopkins
  9. Kareem Hunt
  10. Leonard Fournette
  11. Melvin Gordon
  12. Odell Beckham Jr
  13. Dalvin Cook
  14. Julio Jones
  15. Michael Thomas
I can see Beckham falling out of the first, but I don't think I'd let him fall that far.  I'd tak him over Fornette, Gordon, Cook, and Jones.  Don't know if I'd take him over Thomas... but, he'd still go in the first round.


#128 seafoam1

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 02:45 PM

 

Over the last 30 day, fantasy football calculator shows this for 12-team/PPR ADP

  1. Todd Gurley
  2. LeVeon Bell
  3. Ezekiel Elliott
  4. David Johnson
  5. Antonio Brown
  6. Alvin Kamara
  7. Saquon Barkley
  8. DeAndre Hopkins
  9. Melvin Gordon
  10. Odell Beckham Jr
  11. Kareem Hunt
  12. Leonard Fournette
  13. Dalvin Cook
  14. Julio Jones
  15. Michael Thomas
Fantasy Pros is showing this...
  1. Todd Gurley
  2. LeVeon Bell
  3. Ezekiel Elliott
  4. David Johnson
  5. Alvin Kamara
  6. Saquon Barkley
  7. Antonio Brown
  8. DeAndre Hopkins
  9. Kareem Hunt
  10. Leonard Fournette
  11. Melvin Gordon
  12. Odell Beckham Jr
  13. Dalvin Cook
  14. Julio Jones
  15. Michael Thomas
I can see Beckham falling out of the first, but I don't think I'd let him fall that far.  I'd tak him over Fornette, Gordon, Cook, and Jones.  Don't know if I'd take him over Thomas... but, he'd still go in the first round.

 

 

For that list, I think I would only take him over Jones and Fournette. But I usually go heavy RB in my drafts.



#129 tanatastic

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 04:42 PM

I keep forgetting just how loaded rnd 1 is. A wr who is pretty much a lock for 1300 10 falling out of the 1st in ppr would be hard to see in other years. Also there’s a lot of thought to go RB early and that wr is easy to come by later. I disagree, I feel it’s opposite. I can go wr wr and still get impact RBs in 3/4. No way there is a lock for top 5 production like Odell in rnd 3/4 at wr. Top RBs usually bust, they are far from locks (everyone is a risk, obv Odell got hurt just last year).

In a perfect world where your rnd 3-6 RBs all pan out (they won’t, jus sayin) the best strat is to go wr, wr then a top QB (again, safe production) and then trust those RBs to play above their draft status. Easier said than done of course, but that’s the template for safe drafting imo.

#130 shutdown

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 07:25 PM

 
 
I don't understand how Beckham's floor is 91 catches while his catch % has been steadily dropping. Like I said, with a new RB that everyone is touting to have major impact and consistent targets,  and a TE that is highly praised for his catches, how does that help Beckham get consistent targets equaling his last full year. 169 is a ton of targets. They went from a one man show, and now are considered by many here to having multiple weapons on offense, but yet you still say that Beckham's floor is getting a huge amount of targets. If you think the Giants are going to run 20 more plays on offense per game then I guess they are simply a great offense now. And Manning will be a #1 QB, and Beckham will be a #1 WR, and Barkley will be a #1 RB, and Engram will be a #1 TE, and the Giants are poised to be a top seed in the NFC. Because they would have to be if all those targets are there for everyone.  
 
I'll take the success that possibly comes from the Minnesota offense, over any success that possibly comes from the Giants offense this year. Including receivers. And I never said that Diggs will have a better year than Beckham, just that it could be closer than most people think. 

Outside of his rookie year, where his catch percentage 70%, the rest of his season catch percentages have been within 1.2% (60.8, 59.8, 61.0) so I'd debate that his declining catch percentage is not a relevant stat.  He's been plenty successful with a 60% rate.  If i throw out his rookie season where he only needed 130 targets to catch 91 passes, he averaged 154 targets, 99 catches, and 1410 yards with those lower catch percentage numbers.  Last year, his targets extrapolated over 16 games would have been 160. 
 
And yes I do think Eli can finish the year as QB 1 (10-12 overall) based on the offense being improved.  And an improved offense can mean sustained drives, more offensive plays, and more scoring.  This is a team that's 2 years removed from being 11-5 with arguably less offensive talent than it has now.    And given they'll have a last place schedule.  I do think they can compete for the division. Certainly we have different opinions but I would guess anyone doing projections is penciling Beckham for 90 catches.
 
Also if i take Antonio Brown's catch percentage it's also declined every year over the last 4 years, from 71% to 62% last year.  I'm not using that stat to evaluate Antonio Brown.
 
Part of fielding a great fantasy team is going against the grain so if you feel strongly that more mouths to feed = less for Beckham, I'm not trying to talk you out of that, but there's a lot of history and numbers that suggest Beckham has established a floor for his production.

All that said I do agree with you that I'd take a lot of RB's in round 1 and whatever WR I got later over Beckham plus a later RB. The RB cliff falls off more precipitously.

#131 tanatastic

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 08:13 PM

I really dont see the Rb cliff falling off and I see more viable RBs in the later rounds after 1/2 than I can recall in recent memory. Do a mock and see who is still there rnd 5/6.

#132 shutdown

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Posted 09 August 2018 - 07:31 AM

I really dont see the Rb cliff falling off and I see more viable RBs in the later rounds after 1/2 than I can recall in recent memory. Do a mock and see who is still there rnd 5/6.

By cliff, i mean the ones I feel have high floors and high ceilings.  I feel that group ends with Fournette at 1.10.  You can argue Cook and Hunt or even Freeman should be in that group but I feel they have more questions that the other elite backs.  After that I feel there are a wide range of outcomes for the guys below that group.  I do agree there is more potential for RB's in the late rounds than there has been in most drafts with players like Royce Freeman, Mark Ingram, Dion Lewis, etc all available in the area you mentioned who I could see approaching top 10 status.  But who could also finish outside the top 20 for various reasons. 

 

I think this year gives you a lot of draft options to win a league.  I could see drafting 3 RB's in the first 3 rounds and stocking up on mid level WR's after that.  I can see grabbing 4 RB's in round 3-6 and feeling good that 2 of the 4 will hit.  But I think there are a handful safer picks that I'd rather have in round 1 than gamble later in the draft.



#133 LoOnAtIk

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Posted 09 August 2018 - 07:56 PM

Saquon lookin good....

#134 jgcrawfish

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 03:25 PM

 

I'll take Barkley top 3.  He doesn't need a good OLine to put up great numbers.  My top 7...

  1. David Johnson
  2. Ezekiel Elliott
  3. Saquon Barkley
  4. Le'Veon Bell
  5. Todd Gurley
  6. Kareem Hunt
  7. Alvin Kamara

 

Man, that's a lofty spot for Barkley...ahead of Bell and Gurley...but based on what I saw last night Barkley may have a pretty damned high ceiling.  He wasn't even used in the passing game and he's been abusing the Giants corners in camp and didn't have Beckham there to draw coverage.  Maybe you're right.  :dunno:



"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." (Edmund Burke)

#135 Canadianfan

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 04:53 PM

I've actually lowered Barkley in my rankings dispite his explosive first carry yesterday. I don't trust that offense at all and I don't see them working Barkley to death on a shitty team. 10 points against the browns is pathetic. I don't care that it's preseason

#136 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 05:22 PM

Webb didn't look so hot huh?

#137 jrokh

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 05:29 PM

In his first meaningful game-action as a Giant he didn't look good. I'd give him a D. Didn't throw a pick so not an F, but was sailing balls high and missing open receivers.

#138 Ray_T

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 06:44 PM

I think if Barkley is the real deal it will be better for Beckham.

 

The improved O line will also be better for Beckham.   Adding Solder at LT will make all the difference in the world.  LT was a turnstile for opposing defenses last year and this was the largest area of need.    Hernandez, (a first round talent in my opinion) will slot in at Left guard.   He graded out extremely well on PFF, and I cant help but think he will be an improvement on what was there last year.

 

They also signed patrick Omameh for RG.  He was a starter in Jaxonville.  I cannot help but think this line will be better than it has been in a very long time. 

 

If Eli has an extra 1/4 to 1/2 second to throw the ball, that will mean a lot of better stats for all the WR and for Eli as well.

 

with all that being said......

 

if teams want to double cover Beckham like they have in the past, Barkely will get a lot of work.  once he shows hes the real deal, teams will stack the box to stop Barkely, but they will not be able to double cover Beckham and he will get a lot of love.

 

as a whole, I believe we'd be foolish to think the offense as a whole wont be better.   and Beckham will get a slightly smaller piece (percentage wise) but the pie will be a whole lot bigger.   We are talking more total yards, more TDs.

 

There are a lot of reasons to buy players from this offense.

 

with all the new pieces on the line, I expect some growing pains early, but after game 3 or 4, I expect this line will be solid.

 

 

I don't understand how Beckham's floor is 91 catches while his catch % has been steadily dropping. Like I said, with a new RB that everyone is touting to have major impact and consistent targets,  and a TE that is highly praised for his catches, how does that help Beckham get consistent targets equaling his last full year. 169 is a ton of targets. They went from a one man show, and now are considered by many here to having multiple weapons on offense, but yet you still say that Beckham's floor is getting a huge amount of targets. If you think the Giants are going to run 20 more plays on offense per game then I guess they are simply a great offense now. And Manning will be a #1 QB, and Beckham will be a #1 WR, and Barkley will be a #1 RB, and Engram will be a #1 TE, and the Giants are poised to be a top seed in the NFC. Because they would have to be if all those targets are there for everyone.  

 

I'll take the success that possibly comes from the Minnesota offense, over any success that possibly comes from the Giants offense this year. Including receivers. And I never said that Diggs will have a better year than Beckham, just that it could be closer than most people think. 


3 keeper, 12 team league Standard scoring with QB getting -1 pt for an interception & fumbles 5 points for a defensive safety & 6 points for a defensive TD.

Start 2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Kicker, one Def/Sp Tms

 

 

 

Also expert Fly Fisherman and story teller.


#139 tanatastic

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Posted 10 August 2018 - 07:54 PM

10 points against the browns is pathetic. I don't care that it's preseason

Its preseason.

#140 seafoam1

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Posted 11 August 2018 - 02:29 AM

Outside of his rookie year, where his catch percentage 70%, the rest of his season catch percentages have been within 1.2% (60.8, 59.8, 61.0) so I'd debate that his declining catch percentage is not a relevant stat.  He's been plenty successful with a 60% rate.  If i throw out his rookie season where he only needed 130 targets to catch 91 passes, he averaged 154 targets, 99 catches, and 1410 yards with those lower catch percentage numbers.  Last year, his targets extrapolated over 16 games would have been 160. 
 
And yes I do think Eli can finish the year as QB 1 (10-12 overall) based on the offense being improved.  And an improved offense can mean sustained drives, more offensive plays, and more scoring.  This is a team that's 2 years removed from being 11-5 with arguably less offensive talent than it has now.    And given they'll have a last place schedule.  I do think they can compete for the division. Certainly we have different opinions but I would guess anyone doing projections is penciling Beckham for 90 catches.
 
Also if i take Antonio Brown's catch percentage it's also declined every year over the last 4 years, from 71% to 62% last year.  I'm not using that stat to evaluate Antonio Brown.
 
Part of fielding a great fantasy team is going against the grain so if you feel strongly that more mouths to feed = less for Beckham, I'm not trying to talk you out of that, but there's a lot of history and numbers that suggest Beckham has established a floor for his production.

All that said I do agree with you that I'd take a lot of RB's in round 1 and whatever WR I got later over Beckham plus a later RB. The RB cliff falls off more precipitously.

 

Do they give out last place schedules? Check out the first 7 games for the Giants this year:

 

Jacksonville

Dallas

Houston

New Orleans

Carolina 

Philadelphia

Atlanta

 

That is 0-7 to start the season.

 

Plus they would still have to play San Francisco, Philly again, Indi with Luck back, Tennessee, and Dallas again.  They may end up with 1 or 2 wins this year.



#141 tanatastic

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Posted 11 August 2018 - 12:02 PM

 
Do they give out last place schedules? Check out the first 7 games for the Giants this year:
 
Jacksonville
Dallas
Houston
New Orleans
Carolina 
Philadelphia
Atlanta
 
That is 0-7 to start the season.
 
Plus they would still have to play San Francisco, Philly again, Indi with Luck back, Tennessee, and Dallas again.  They may end up with 1 or 2 wins this year.

They wont go 0-7 and will win more than 3 games.

#142 Gepetto

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Posted 11 August 2018 - 12:13 PM

Saquon Barkley is Adrian Peterson, Bo Jackson, Herschel Walker level talent and the bell cow RB for the NY Giants.  I'm going to draft him.



#143 LoOnAtIk

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Posted 11 August 2018 - 12:18 PM

I honestly dont care if giants go 0-7 and Saquon and OBJ pile up garbage time stats.

Theres no scenario in my head where Saquon wont get his touches.

#144 American Chewy

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Posted 11 August 2018 - 01:35 PM

I honestly dont care if giants go 0-7 and Saquon and OBJ pile up garbage time stats.

Theres no scenario in my head where Saquon wont get his touches.

 

Think the issue is whether they will be effective touches.  Like Gurley 2016 type touches or hall of fame production like everyone else is assuming.



#145 LoOnAtIk

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Posted 12 August 2018 - 04:35 AM

 
Think the issue is whether they will be effective touches.  Like Gurley 2016 type touches or hall of fame production like everyone else is assuming.


Issue with that is the giants project to have more talent around him so they wont stack the box like they did on gurley that entire season. Also from individual talent stand point I think Barkley projects better than Gurley. Just my opinion.

#146 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 12 August 2018 - 06:13 AM

Saquon Barkley is Adrian Peterson, Bo Jackson, Herschel Walker level talent and the bell cow RB for the NY Giants.  I'm going to draft him.


After one NFL carry. Wow

#147 Mike Nice

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Posted 12 August 2018 - 08:13 AM

Game script shouldn't affect Barkley.  Giants have been lining him up outside as a receiver.  Imo i could see him having a similar year like DJ had in 2016.  Choo Choo



#148 seafoam1

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Posted 12 August 2018 - 09:27 AM

They wont go 0-7 and will win more than 3 games.


I predict all 7 of the teams they play at the beginning of their schedule will beat them.

Which of those 7 teams are you saying the Giants will beat?

#149 jrokh

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Posted 12 August 2018 - 09:32 AM

I predict all 7 of the teams they play at the beginning of their schedule will beat them.

Which of those 7 teams are you saying the Giants will beat?

 

Stop the presses: Seafoam predicts Giants will start 0-7. Pat Shurmur may as well go on vacation once he hears this...



#150 seafoam1

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Posted 12 August 2018 - 09:40 AM

Stop the presses: Seafoam predicts Giants will start 0-7. Pat Shurmur may as well go on vacation once he hears this...


Why? But sure, may as well.

#151 LoOnAtIk

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Posted 12 August 2018 - 10:01 AM

Can we revisit this after week 7 please?

Everyone mark your calendars to bump this thread lol

#152 seafoam1

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Posted 12 August 2018 - 10:07 AM

Can we revisit this after week 7 please?
Everyone mark your calendars to bump this thread lol

Oh get over it. You can say the same thing about 90% of the predictions and rankings that everyone makes on this site. I'll live with it.

#153 LoOnAtIk

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Posted 12 August 2018 - 11:40 AM

Are you already admitting to being wrong? Hahahaha

A little more conviction in your prediction wouldve have solicited a completely different response. At least something along the lines of: sure well see after week 7 and certainly not most predictions on here are crazy too

Youre like the Stugotz of these forums lol

#154 seafoam1

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Posted 12 August 2018 - 11:49 AM

Are you already admitting to being wrong? Hahahaha
A little more conviction in your prediction wouldve have solicited a completely different response. At least something along the lines of: sure well see after week 7 and certainly not most predictions on here are crazy too
Youre like the Stugotz of these forums lol

Nope. If I am wrong, then call me out. Doesn't matter. I'm just saying that you could do the same to anyone on this site at the end of the year. Including yourself.

#155 tanatastic

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Posted 12 August 2018 - 01:43 PM

I predict all 7 of the teams they play at the beginning of their schedule will beat them.

Which of those 7 teams are you saying the Giants will beat?

I dont know, I just know football is unpredictable and things happen. Injuries, penalties, coaching changes etc. Every year a lot of the things we think will happen, dont. Ive lost more football bets on lead pipe locks than I can count.

Giants have too much talent on offense to lose 7 straight games regardless of opponent. Also, just looking at the schedule you posted, you are overrating some of those teams.

#156 seafoam1

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Posted 12 August 2018 - 01:56 PM

I dont know, I just know football is unpredictable and things happen. Injuries, penalties, coaching changes etc. Every year a lot of the things we think will happen, dont. Ive lost more football bets on lead pipe locks than I can count.
Giants have too much talent on offense to lose 7 straight games regardless of opponent. Also, just looking at the schedule you posted, you are overrating some of those teams.


I agree with you on the unpredictabilty of these games. You are definitely correct on that. But I don't believe in Manning as much as many here do. Nor their TE. You have the advantage of saying they will win one or more of their 7 first games, but when I look at all these teams right now, I gotta believe Dallas is the one that the Giants could beat. But the game is in Dallas, so I give them the edge here.

#157 LoOnAtIk

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Posted 12 August 2018 - 02:43 PM

First it started with you thinking its CRAZY that anyone would draft a rookie over the NFL rushing leader from the year before.

The fact is: its not crazy. Many owners on here share the same opinion, so factually speaking, it is not crazy to draft Barkley over hunt.

You on the other hand doubled down with an even more bold prediction: giants start 0-7.

So now I want to revisit for 2 reasons. Giants record and Barkleys stats. You might be right about 1 of these or even both.

I honestly think Barkley will score a ton of fantasy points even if theyre 0-7. So yes lets please revisit.

#158 LoOnAtIk

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Posted 12 August 2018 - 02:47 PM

When you really think about it, once people start taking players early in the 1st round, theres no telling where they will land. If his average ADP is 1.07 lets say... anyone picking top 5 might grab just because he wont be there round 2.

Its not crazy to draft Barkley after Leveon and Gurley.

Its not crazy to draft Barkley 1st overall. I probably wouldnt but I hate when people say that Bell or Gurley have to be the number 1 pick.

Take Antonio Brown 1st overall if you want. Pick the player you feel surest about and build around him.

#159 seafoam1

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Posted 12 August 2018 - 03:54 PM

I don't think I said it was crazy to choose who you want in the first round. I only said Barkley hasn't done anything in the NFL but Hunt led the league in rushing as a rookie last year. Anyone can suck this coming year, including Barkley, but I prefer Hunt who has done it before, and who I think is in a more dynamic offense. But if I'm wrong, so be it. Noone on this board will get the 12 correct in order of fantasy points scored. These are the days for strong opinions on rankings and tiers. Before the drafting.

#160 tanatastic

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Posted 13 August 2018 - 02:37 PM

When you really think about it, once people start taking players early in the 1st round, theres no telling where they will land. If his average ADP is 1.07 lets say... anyone picking top 5 might grab just because he wont be there round 2.
Its not crazy to draft Barkley after Leveon and Gurley.
Its not crazy to draft Barkley 1st overall. I probably wouldnt but I hate when people say that Bell or Gurley have to be the number 1 pick.
Take Antonio Brown 1st overall if you want. Pick the player you feel surest about and build around him.

Agreed. Also pretty much every year the consensus top pick gets hurt or sucks. Just take your guy. If that guy is Kareem hunt or Hopkins, so be it. They won’t be around next pick so if you have faith, take them.