desertfire 4 Posted July 30, 2014 This thread is dedicated to identifying 5 new players that will be in the top 10 of running backs at the end of the season and 5 that are being consistently ranked (pre season rankings) in the top 10 or that finished in the top 10 last season. Most ranking for a new season are typically based off of last years results. As we all know, there's typically a 40% to 50% turnover each year in the top 10 ranked running backs. In summary, the "5 IN" will consist of 5 new running backs that will emerge in the top 10 by the end of the year and the "5 OUT" will consist of players currently being ranked in the top 10 that will not end up there by seasons end. 5 IN 1. Stevan Ridley- With Blount now in Pittsburg and the Patriots being committed to the run, I see a big season for Ridley. 2. Rashad Jennings- The Giants have always been committed to the run and with Eli's tendency to throw int after int, I see the Giants giving Rashad the ball at least 20 times a game. Plus, who's his competition? Rashad is a 3 down back and will prove to be a great pick up for the Giants this season. 3. Trent Richardson- No question he had a terrible season last year. With Donald Brown now in San Diego and Vick Ballard out for the season who is going to challenge Richardson for carries? Indy's offense of way above average which will give Richardson the opportunity to score double digit touchdowns. 4. Joique Bell- He is in a RBBC with Reggie Bush but Detroit will score plenty of points for both backs to flourish. Joique will get the majority of the goal line carries and he's great between the tackles and is an above average receiver. Apart from Calvin Johnson, Detroit doesn't have a receiver that is a serious redzone threat. Look for Joique to score double digit touchdowns this season. 5. Alfred Morris- He's durable, consistent and will get the goal line carries. I love Morris this year. Washington's offense will be high powered this year with RG3 back at full strength and the addition of DJAX. This offense is to good, the defenses in the division are to bad and Morris is to talented to not finish in the top 10. 5 OUT 1. Zac Stacy- No chance this guy finishes in the top 10 this season. Most websites have him ranked in the top (FFTODAY does not). The NFC west is brutal when it comes to trying the run the ball. I will not be drafting one RB from the NFC west this year. Stacy had a good season last year but I do not see a repeat of that. Not to mention, Tre Mason will get carries and I see him playing a bigger role as the season progresses. 2. Marshawn Lynch- See a theme here? NFC West. There's the reason Lynch is holding out despite having 2 years left on his current contract. The reason? He's done and he knows it. He's been great for a long time but this is the season he falls off for good. To many carries, he's way to physical and that division is brutal for anyone trying to run the ball. I don't see Lynch finishing the season and even if does I see Carol spreading the love in the backfield this year. 3. Arian Foster- I know he didn't finish in the top 10 last season but he's ranked in the top 10 on nearly every website currently. I do not like this offense at all and Arian seems like he has many more interests in life and football is just one of many. Even if his body holds up which is unlikely I just do not see the touchdown opportunities there for him. This offense has no playmakers and no QB. 4. Demarco Murray- Bottom line; I don't trust him. He was hurt consistently at Oklahoma and he's been hurt often in the NFL. He did stay relatively healthy last year but no way he does it again. He reminds me a lot of Darren McFadden. Tons of talent, tons of speed but very fragile. No chance we see a repeat of last season from Murray. 5. Chris Johnson- Although he's not currently being ranked in anyones top 10 this year, he did finish in the top 10 last year in most standard scoring leagues. ZERO and I mean ZERO change CJ finishes in the top this year. He will be lose carries as the season progresses and unless the Jets have the guts to start michael vick over Geno, they will be lucky to score 14 points a game. Is there any offense in the NFL this year with less talent on offense? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike FF Today 607 Posted July 30, 2014 We have an annual article on this very topic, covering QBs, RBs and WRs. It's on the schedule for Friday! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
robb 71 Posted July 30, 2014 I look forward to reading it Mike! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Upper Class Trash 67 Posted July 30, 2014 This thread is dedicated to identifying 5 new players that will be in the top 10 of running backs at the end of the season and 5 that are being consistently ranked (pre season rankings) in the top 10 or that finished in the top 10 last season. Most ranking for a new season are typically based off of last years results. As we all know, there's typically a 40% to 50% turnover each year in the top 10 ranked running backs. In summary, the "5 IN" will consist of 5 new running backs that will emerge in the top 10 by the end of the year and the "5 OUT" will consist of players currently being ranked in the top 10 that will not end up there by seasons end. 5 IN 1. Stevan Ridley- With Blount now in Pittsburg and the Patriots being committed to the run, I see a big season for Ridley. 2. Rashad Jennings- The Giants have always been committed to the run and with Eli's tendency to throw int after int, I see the Giants giving Rashad the ball at least 20 times a game. Plus, who's his competition? Rashad is a 3 down back and will prove to be a great pick up for the Giants this season. 3. Trent Richardson- No question he had a terrible season last year. With Donald Brown now in San Diego and Vick Ballard out for the season who is going to challenge Richardson for carries? Indy's offense of way above average which will give Richardson the opportunity to score double digit touchdowns. 4. Joique Bell- He is in a RBBC with Reggie Bush but Detroit will score plenty of points for both backs to flourish. Joique will get the majority of the goal line carries and he's great between the tackles and is an above average receiver. Apart from Calvin Johnson, Detroit doesn't have a receiver that is a serious redzone threat. Look for Joique to score double digit touchdowns this season. 5. Alfred Morris- He's durable, consistent and will get the goal line carries. I love Morris this year. Washington's offense will be high powered this year with RG3 back at full strength and the addition of DJAX. This offense is to good, the defenses in the division are to bad and Morris is to talented to not finish in the top 10. 5 OUT 1. Zac Stacy- No chance this guy finishes in the top 10 this season. Most websites have him ranked in the top (FFTODAY does not). The NFC west is brutal when it comes to trying the run the ball. I will not be drafting one RB from the NFC west this year. Stacy had a good season last year but I do not see a repeat of that. Not to mention, Tre Mason will get carries and I see him playing a bigger role as the season progresses. 2. Marshawn Lynch- See a theme here? NFC West. There's the reason Lynch is holding out despite having 2 years left on his current contract. The reason? He's done and he knows it. He's been great for a long time but this is the season he falls off for good. To many carries, he's way to physical and that division is brutal for anyone trying to run the ball. I don't see Lynch finishing the season and even if does I see Carol spreading the love in the backfield this year. 3. Arian Foster- I know he didn't finish in the top 10 last season but he's ranked in the top 10 on nearly every website currently. I do not like this offense at all and Arian seems like he has many more interests in life and football is just one of many. Even if his body holds up which is unlikely I just do not see the touchdown opportunities there for him. This offense has no playmakers and no QB. 4. Demarco Murray- Bottom line; I don't trust him. He was hurt consistently at Oklahoma and he's been hurt often in the NFL. He did stay relatively healthy last year but no way he does it again. He reminds me a lot of Darren McFadden. Tons of talent, tons of speed but very fragile. No chance we see a repeat of last season from Murray. 5. Chris Johnson- Although he's not currently being ranked in anyones top 10 this year, he did finish in the top 10 last year in most standard scoring leagues. ZERO and I mean ZERO change CJ finishes in the top this year. He will be lose carries as the season progresses and unless the Jets have the guts to start michael vick over Geno, they will be lucky to score 14 points a game. Is there any offense in the NFL this year with less talent on offense? Stevan Ridley? Not in a PPR League. Not even a shred of a chance he finishes top ten. He's in the final year of his contract and hasn't proven anything, outside of the fact he can fumble and piss off Coach B. I would be shocked if he finishes in the top ten in standard scoring leagues. James White is looking very good in camp and he will also be competing with Vereen and Bolden for carries. In the final year of his rookie deal, I can't see the Patriots trying to drive his price upwards. It wouldn't be their style. Rashad - If Wilson is injured, this could very well happen. I love their rookie, but he has a ways to go, so no threat this season. Richardson - Seems like we've heard this before. The problem here is Bradshaw has been looking great and Richardson is on a very short leash. After seeing what Brown did last year, would it shock you if Richardson fails, then is released? Not me. That's a big risk to take. Can't argue with Morris as he's being undervalued and/or Bell as I suspect Bush will miss enough time to make Bell the safer pick. DeMarco Murray - Not sure how you have him on the "out" list. He's in a contract year, plays behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and faces 6 teams with absolutely no defensive front. No doubt he misses time, but comparing him to McFadden isn't accurate. He stays on the field for all three downs, which is rare these days and Linehan will utilize him more in the passing game than he has been, which has actually been a decent amount to date. I would take him over all but 7 or 8 backs, possibly fewer, in a PPR League. CJ0K - I will agree and disagree. I certainly wouldn't want him as a starting RB on my squad, but will draft him as a RB3. His line isn't bad and who is he going to lose his carries to? Ivory? We already know Ivory can't hold up for more than a few games per season. Cunningham? LOL Powell? Powell wears down after too much usage. The job is CJ's. Do with that what you will, but I don't see him being a total flop. Definitely not starter material, but I own him as a RB3 in quite a few leagues. His burst isn't there as it was in the past, but I'm interested to see if he plays with a chip on his shoulder. I also don't think the Jets have the worst offense in the league. Bottom two, but c'mon, you think their offense is as bad as Cleveland's? Run, Run, Run, punt. That's the new chant in Cleveland. Arian Foster - Most sites I know do not have him in the top ten. What sites are you looking at? The ones I am familiar with have him just outside the top ten, usually in the 12ish range. He is a scary guy to draft, but his rewards could be HUGE. I'm not risking him as a RB1, but will as a RB2. Pay attention to coaching schemes and changes. He will see a ton of reception opportunities, IF, he can remain healthy. He does seem to be more interested in chubby blond girls these days..... I live in St. Louis and do not own Stacy in a single league. Coach Fisher has not even committed to him being the starter at this point. He's going to get the bulk of the carries, but they didn't draft another RB to keep Stacy as the starter. It's just a matter of when that happens. It could be late this season, or it could be in 2015. Either way, his ypc average isn't great and I'll pass on him due to where he's being drafted currently. I've not seen him projected in the top ten anywhere though. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cnasty 5 Posted July 30, 2014 If Arian Foster falls to 14 in my 16 teamer, I'm going to take the chance, but I get what you're saying. I might argue that Spiller should be with the "in" crowd. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
desertfire 4 Posted July 30, 2014 Don't forget, just two seasons ago Ridley put up RB1 numbers. Love the comments and appreciate the feedback. They point of this was to think outside the box a bit. The running back position just no stay very consistent with the exception of a few. It will be interesting to see what fftoday puts up on friday. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
desertfire 4 Posted July 30, 2014 If Arian Foster falls to 14 in my 16 teamer, I'm going to take the chance, but I get what you're saying. I might argue that Spiller should be with the "in" crowd. I really thought about adding Spiller, the problem is that the team and the coaches love Fred Jackson. He was very effective last season. I also worry about the offense. IMO they have no QB, they did get Watkins this year but to me Buffalo is a WR wasteland. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
shutdown 40 Posted July 30, 2014 I like Morris and J. Bell the most out of your 5. From what I've seen and heard about T. Rich regarding performance and injuries, I would actually lean to Bradshaw having a better shot at finishing in the top 10. As for Jennings this isn't the giants O-line of several years ago. I just don't see the weapons on that team for ANY of their skill players to finish top-10 at any position. I think that's just a bad offense all the way around. Regarding Ridley, it's possible, but I feel like it's more possible he fumbles in the first game and plays the 3rd RB role for the rest of the year. Also the Pats are committed to whatever system wins them games. If they need Brady to throw 50 times because the opponent has a bad secondary, that's what they'll do. If the opponent doesn't have an LB that can match up with Vareen out of the backfield, that's what they'll do. So in addition to being in a crowded backfield, with a varying gameplan from week to week to being on the bench with a fumble I think there is too much risk to call him top-10 material. I would add to your list - Le'Veon Bell. Not at shocker as he's picked inside the top 10 this year but was not last year. I would also add Andre Ellington. Just a hunch but there are a lot of weapons in Arizona and I think his season could be very similar to CJ Spiller's 2012 year where he does a lot without having to touch the ball 20 times per game. Finally I'd add Frank Gore. He's certainly an injury risk, and he has some mileage but you know SF will run the ball and despite all the love for Hyde, he's going to be spot duty until he proves he can pass block and learn the offense. I don't see Gore's workload diminishing much from last year when he finished 13th for RB's. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
desertfire 4 Posted July 30, 2014 I like Morris and J. Bell the most out of your 5. From what I've seen and heard about T. Rich regarding performance and injuries, I would actually lean to Bradshaw having a better shot at finishing in the top 10. As for Jennings this isn't the giants O-line of several years ago. I just don't see the weapons on that team for ANY of their skill players to finish top-10 at any position. I think that's just a bad offense all the way around. Regarding Ridley, it's possible, but I feel like it's more possible he fumbles in the first game and plays the 3rd RB role for the rest of the year. Also the Pats are committed to whatever system wins them games. If they need Brady to throw 50 times because the opponent has a bad secondary, that's what they'll do. If the opponent doesn't have an LB that can match up with Vareen out of the backfield, that's what they'll do. So in addition to being in a crowded backfield, with a varying gameplan from week to week to being on the bench with a fumble I think there is too much risk to call him top-10 material. I would add to your list - Le'Veon Bell. Not at shocker as he's picked inside the top 10 this year but was not last year. I would also add Andre Ellington. Just a hunch but there are a lot of weapons in Arizona and I think his season could be very similar to CJ Spiller's 2012 year where he does a lot without having to touch the ball 20 times per game. Finally I'd add Frank Gore. He's certainly an injury risk, and he has some mileage but you know SF will run the ball and despite all the love for Hyde, he's going to be spot duty until he proves he can pass block and learn the offense. I don't see Gore's workload diminishing much from last year when he finished 13th for RB's. Le'Veon Bell is currently ranked in almost everyone's top 10. As far as Ellingto and Gore, again I reference the NFC West. I don't see a RB finishing in the top 10 from the NFC West. Great feedback, I appreciate it Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frozenbeernuts 1,652 Posted July 31, 2014 No effing way bradshaw finishes top 10 because there is no effing way he plays 16 games. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MDC 5,890 Posted July 31, 2014 One of my "ins" who doesn't get mentioned much is Lamar Miller, MIA. New O coordinator Bill Lazor is former QBs coach for the Eagles and he plans to install some of Chip Kelly's fast paced, run heavy offense. In theory this should increase the number of offensive plays the Dolphins run. Moreno reportedly showed up to camp overweight and out of shape, and now he's already on the PUP list: http://m.sportsworldreport.com/articles/32454/20140729/miami-dolphins-rumors-joe-philbin-favors-lamar-miller-over-knowshon-moreno-ryan-tannehill-support-brandon-gibson-brian-hartline-roster-spot.htm Moreno is only on a one year deal so it's not like he's getting paid as a franchise back anyway. I have read some very loose rumors that he may not even make the team. Daniel Thomas may find a role as a goal line / short yardage back but he's not cut out to he an very down back and Lamar just has much more talent. He was under utilized last year but I think this is the season he gets a significant workload and performs at a RB2 level for a RB3 price. He will be on both of my teams. My prediction: 250 carries for 1,100 on the ground, 30 catches for another 300 receiving, 8 total TDs. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
shutdown 40 Posted July 31, 2014 No effing way bradshaw finishes top 10 because there is no effing way he plays 16 games. My contention isn't that Bradshaw will finish in the top 10, but if I had to pick one of the colt backs to do it I would take Bradshaw over Richardson. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maroon Bells 18 Posted August 1, 2014 IN 1. Foster 2. Murray 3. Ellington 4. Ball 5. Spiller OUT 1. Charles 2. Stacy 3. Gore 4. Lynch Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
slacker1989 2 Posted August 1, 2014 I like Bell too, but I think his ceiling is close to last year. The additions of Tate and Ebron will probably take some red zone targets from everybody, and they had this rookie TE last year named Fauria. His stats from last year: Season Team G GS Rec Yds Avg Lng TD Att Yds Avg Lng TD FUM Lost 2013 Detroit Lions 16 2 18 207 11.5 25 7 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- He seems like a valid Red zone threat to me. In fact, that was the only time the kid was on the field. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flgatorguy87 160 Posted August 2, 2014 IN 1. Foster 2. Murray 3. Ellington 4. Ball 5. Spiller OUT 1. Charles 2. Stacy 3. Gore 4. Lynch Bad math and unless you are predicting injury I'm curious why Charles is out? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flgatorguy87 160 Posted August 2, 2014 I like Bell too, but I think his ceiling is close to last year. The additions of Tate and Ebron will probably take some red zone targets from everybody, and they had this rookie TE last year named Fauria. His stats from last year: Season Team G GS Rec Yds Avg Lng TD Att Yds Avg Lng TD FUM Lost 2013 Detroit Lions 16 2 18 207 11.5 25 7 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- He seems like a valid Red zone threat to me. In fact, that was the only time the kid was on the field. Agree with this. Any ceiling with Bell is really quite low unless you're banking on a Bush injury. There are just too many options in that offense. I see a slight improvement on last year's numbers on a per game basis when he is in the time share. I think the season ending numbers will look about the same because he benefited from some juicy matchups last year when Bush was out. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Frozenbeernuts 1,652 Posted August 2, 2014 Bad math and unless you are predicting injury I'm curious why Charles is out? Yeah i agree. Charles is literally breaking peoples legs with his moves. Charles will beast once again. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
