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Down big because of goff. Would this work to help catch up?


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#1 cyclone24

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Posted 30 September 2018 - 07:19 AM

So my opponent had Goff and I'm down a ton of points. But for some reason he's playing the Cleveland defense even though I'm starting Marshawn and Jared Cook.

I currently have Tyler boyd starting over Amari Cooper but would it help to play Cooper with the idea that everything the Raiders get offensively will negatively impact his defensive score at the same time?

Or do I just play Boyd and hope for a shootout?
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#2 TwentyFourSeven

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Posted 30 September 2018 - 07:25 AM

So my opponent had Goff and I'm down a ton of points. But for some reason he's playing the Cleveland defense even though I'm starting Marshawn and Jared Cook.

I currently have Tyler boyd starting over Amari Cooper but would it help to play Cooper with the idea that everything the Raiders get offensively will negatively impact his defensive score at the same time?

Or do I just play Boyd and hope for a shootout?


Go with Boyd if you think he will score the most points. Cooper is going to effect the Browns defense (you'd hope) whether you start him or not.

#3 kilroy69

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Posted 30 September 2018 - 07:27 AM

Dating back to 2017, Boyds last four stat lines are 5/91/1 > 3/26/0 > 6/91/1 > 6/132/1 on 7.0 targets per game.

Boyd runs 68% of his routes inside, where PFF has charged Falcons slot CB Brian Poole with 16 catches allowed on 20 targets (80%) for 141 yards and two scores
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#4 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 30 September 2018 - 07:47 AM

I would not want Amari Cooper anywhere near my lineup. Boyd should be involved in a shootout



#5 ST_Pete

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Posted 30 September 2018 - 07:53 AM

We all know the cancel out theory is valid...

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#6 polecatt

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Posted 30 September 2018 - 07:59 AM

Play which ever one will get you the most points,

That's probably Boyd, he's hot right now



#7 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 30 September 2018 - 08:00 AM

I bet the over on the Cincy Atlanta game, which is why i expect it to really be a shootout



#8 kilroy69

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Posted 30 September 2018 - 08:26 AM

I feel like they are going to use green as a decoy today or at least a partial decoy. Something makes me suspicious that he is still hurt. They way he grabbed his stomach last week. The coach speak during the week.
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#9 jrokh

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Posted 30 September 2018 - 08:37 AM

Playing certain players because of what your opponent has done is like sliding headfirst into first base, it makes no sense. Play the guy you think scores the most points, end of story.



#10 nobody

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Posted 30 September 2018 - 09:46 AM

I'm in the same boat. I'm down 67-2 in my league (dalvin cook vs Goff and theilen).

I'm starting all my high ceiling/high variance players.

In other words, start amari Cooper over Boyd because Cooper's ceiling is higher.

#11 nobody

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Posted 30 September 2018 - 09:50 AM

Playing certain players because of what your opponent has done is like sliding headfirst into first base, it makes no sense. Play the guy you think scores the most points, end of story.

Everyone loves saying this. I mean everyone LOVES saying this.

Here's the problem, you don't know who's going to score the most points. You can put players on ranges though...

Ie, desean Jackson is likely to score anywhere from 3 to 25. Meanwhile, marhsawn lynch is likely to score anywhere from 6 to 15.

Why do we keep acting like we know? I can't wait until FF thinking evolves past that. Hopefully Matthew Berry or someone says something similar so people quit the whole "start the guy who scores the most" thing.

#12 Frozenbeernuts

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Posted 30 September 2018 - 09:55 AM

Everyone loves saying this. I mean everyone LOVES saying this.

Here's the problem, you don't know who's going to score the most points. You can put players on ranges though...

Ie, desean Jackson is likely to score anywhere from 3 to 25. Meanwhile, marhsawn lynch is likely to score anywhere from 6 to 15.

Why do we keep acting like we know? I can't wait until FF thinking evolves past that. Hopefully Matthew Berry or someone says something similar so people quit the whole "start the guy who scores the most" thing.

That's the point. You don't know, so doing some pointless cancel out strategy, especially in this scenario, doesn't mean anything because Cooper isn't guaranteed shlt. I like Boyd a lot this week. I don't like Cooper any week because he flat out sucks.



#13 jrokh

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Posted 30 September 2018 - 10:04 AM

I'm not in any way suggesting anyone can predict the future. I am suggesting, However that playing a player based off what your opponent has done or is doing is an exercise in futility. Hope that clears it up for you...

#14 cbfalcon

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Posted 30 September 2018 - 10:06 AM

If you are down big due to facing Goff, you have no choice but to take some risks.

Think of it like this. Lets say Goffs game makes it look likely that your opponent is scoring 130 pts this week.
If you have one lineup that is 90% likely to score 100 pts and 10% likely to score 140 pts.....and another lineup that is 75% likely to 80 pts but 25% likely to get you 140 pts......then you go with the lineup that gives you a 25% chance at winning over the higher on average lineup that only gives you a 10% chance of winning.

This is simply the Unexpected Performance Reactive Cancel Out Theory in action. You roll with your Raiders in this instance in hopes of the double whammy.
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#15 SpenceToons

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Posted 30 September 2018 - 10:14 AM


Here's the problem, you don't know who's going to score the most points. You can put players on ranges though...

Ie, desean Jackson is likely to score anywhere from 3 to 25. Meanwhile, marhsawn lynch is likely to score anywhere from 6 to 15.

 

 

Here's the thing....Cyclone had already walked through his routine ("putting players on ranges", as you put it) and had selected Boyd over Cooper as the end result of that routine. Then he backtracks and has second thoughts for the SOLE reason of this cancel-out way of looking at things. We're not objecting based on whether Cooper's projection should be higher or lower than Boyd's. No one knows for sure, as you say. But we're objecting for the reason that Cooper is being reconsidered - that somehow there's some extra advantage that would accrue to Cyclone by playing Cooper instead of Boyd because Cyclone's opponent is starting the CLE defense and a Cooper TD could lower the score of that CLE defense.

 

As TwentyFourSeven points out, Cooper TDs are going to hurt the CLE defense whether Cyclone starts Cooper or not. That's already baked in. So Cyclone might as well have his cake and eat it too by starting the player he originally preferred.



#16 TennisMenace

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Posted 30 September 2018 - 12:21 PM

I don’t trust Cooper at all. Boyd has a great match up.
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#17 cbfalcon

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Posted 30 September 2018 - 07:36 PM

Hoping you listened to me and used the Unexpected Performance Reactive Cancel Out Theory, as it likely netted you a comeback victory
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#18 tanatastic

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Posted 30 September 2018 - 07:56 PM

You cant cancel or negate anything, thats not a thing in FF, but if you start who got you the most points you did it right.

#19 cbfalcon

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Posted 01 October 2018 - 04:30 AM

You cant cancel or negate anything, thats not a thing in FF, but if you start who got you the most points you did it right.

Its not about actually canceling anything. Its about seeing seeing a path to victory that lessens your variables.

Hypothetical Example: If you are playing in a survivor league with 20 people. You are 80% certain the Vikings will beat the Bills this week and this is the only game the league can pick on. Normally youd go with the Vikings. That is, until you learn that all 19 other owners are boasting to having picked the Vikings.

Now the choice is a no brainer. You take the lower percentage scorer because it gives you the higher percentage chance at victory.

This is the same thinking that goes into Cancel Out related theories like that posed above.
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#20 cyclone24

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Posted 01 October 2018 - 07:36 AM

see what I get for listening to you Hillbillies? Guy went for a hundred and twenty yards and a touchdown to Boyd's mere 100 yards. :)

Hah... I kid. Luckily Marshawn and Jared Cook went Bonkers so I should be able to overcome it.

UP 24 and he's got Watkins and Lindsay going tonight. I should be okay
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#21 cbfalcon

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Posted 01 October 2018 - 07:58 AM

see what I get for listening to you Hillbillies? Guy went for a hundred and twenty yards and a touchdown to Boyd's mere 100 yards. :)

Hah... I kid. Luckily Marshawn and Jared Cook went Bonkers so I should be able to overcome it.

UP 24 and he's got Watkins and Lindsay going tonight. I should be okay

 

If its a PPR league.....

 

You are up 24. And hey, Watkins is averaging 14.2 points and Lindsey is averaging 10.7 points. So on average, you just lost by a little less than a point due to your fear...With the Cancel Out related strategy, you'd be up 30 and a 5 point favorite at the moment.

 

The lesson is....When you are in a tough spot and need to make a little something extra happen, The Cancel Out play is one of the weapons that separates the standard run of the mill FF player from the guy that seems to get a little bit extra out of his teams over the long run.


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#22 cbfalcon

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Posted 01 October 2018 - 08:11 AM

Boring Owners that are afraid of using weapons like the Cancel Out are easy to beat in the long run. They are like poker players that only raise in late position with top 10 hands. The creative owner will get in there with low pocket pairs or connectors against them at times, and because the creative player always knows exactly what the Boring Owner has, he will take all of his money when the right flop hits.


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#23 jrokh

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Posted 01 October 2018 - 08:18 AM

Not sure if you are being facetious?

#24 SpenceToons

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Posted 01 October 2018 - 09:51 AM

Boring Owners that are afraid of using weapons like the Cancel Out are easy to beat in the long run. They are like poker players that only raise in late position with top 10 hands. The creative owner will get in there with low pocket pairs or connectors against them at times, and because the creative player always knows exactly what the Boring Owner has, he will take all of his money when the right flop hits.

 

Except for the fact that Boring Owners fold when the "right flop" hits. They're patient and wait for the creative guy to turn frustrated and start pressing the issue and then capitalize off his growing mistakes.

 

The reality about Boring Owners in FF is that the long run contains more weeks when their opponents are the ones who are down big and need to pull rabbits out of the hat.



#25 tanatastic

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Posted 01 October 2018 - 11:19 AM

Not sure if you are being facetious?


He’s just poking fun, there’s no such thing as anything except start who you think will score the most. If they do, it was the better play. He’s just having a bit of fun trolling.

#26 jrokh

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Posted 01 October 2018 - 11:23 AM

Thanks, figured as much.

#27 cbfalcon

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Posted 01 October 2018 - 02:25 PM

No, I'm not trolling. Ask the DNDL members (the most successful dynasty league in FFToday history) and they will tell you that I'm the most successful franchise in league history and that I'm bold like a rhino.


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