Odell Beckham Jr.

[stonewall 647]

In mocks, I'm often seeing D. Thomas, A. Brown, and Dez (and sometimes Julio and Mega) being drafted before him. All great WR's, and the argument for Brown and, perhaps, Demaryius is solid......but am I missing something here? Are people expecting a Sophomore slump?

 

Granted, he was getting an insane amount of targets down the stretch last season. Here are his #'s for the final 9 games (targets/receptions/yards/TD):

 

11/8/156/0

10/7/108/0

13/6/93/0

11/10/146/2

8/7/90/0

15/11/130/1

15/12/143/3

12/8/148/2

21/12/185/1

 

Some say that was against soft defenses. I don't consider Seattle, St. Louis, SF, or even Jax to be soft.

 

Others say that Cruz coming back will hurt him. For me, it's hard to consider Cruz a threat....and if so, just a nominal one at best.

 

So, where do you put him and why? Also, does his presence finally make Eli a potentially legit (and more importantly, consistent) mid-range QB1?

[weepaws 2,452]

I have Beckham ranked second behind j Jones . And if Beckham comes close to what he did last season plus if the Giants can get Cruz back that would bump E Manning back onto the top ten right now I have him ranked 8th

[Bishop82 61]

I expect a slump. Teams have tape on him now, I expect defenses to key in on him.

 

I still see him having a good season 75 catches maybe 1200 yards and 8 TDs.

[Super Cubs 132]

the others WRs are proven commodities

 

Plus I think he'll end up more like Andre Johnson. A great talent suck in the wrong situation.

[weepaws 2,452]

He is on the cover of Madden

[jdon 28]

I don't up in the first two rounds,

that means my first tier of wide receivers is proven commodities:

D. Thomas

Dez

A. Brown

Julio

Green

 

hell, I may even take calvin or Jordy freaking Nelson before the ODB

[stonewall 647]

I don't ###### up in the first two rounds,

that means my first tier of wide receivers is proven commodities:

D. Thomas

Dez

A. Brown

Julio

Green

 

hell, I may even take calvin or Jordy freaking Nelson before the ODB

 

I'm done with Green. Would rather have Marvin Jones later.

[the spanker 28]

 

I'm done with Green. Would rather have Marvin Jones later.

 

 

That's a mistake.

[DankNuggs 305]

Cruz will take targets, defenses will adjust now with tape and he will come back to earf. Definitely in the discussion being in the top tier but i don't see a clear cut #1,

[petekrum 20]

That's a mistake.

+1000. On such decisions are 4-9 seasons born.

[petekrum 20]

On another forum, fully one third of the posters are arguing he should be the number one overall pick. Reminds me of a PT Barnum quote.

[stonewall 647]

+1000. On such decisions are 4-9 seasons born.

 

.....or 13-1, like last season, but I digress.

 

If you can't see the potential benefits of passing on Green for another WR1 and waiting on Marvin Jones as a high upside WR3 or 4 way late in the draft (who certainly has a chance of breaking out if fully healthy, and had 10 TD's in 2013, went 8/130 during the last game he played in the playoffs against SD, and is in a contract year, I believe)......then I don't guess I can help you cats.

 

BTW, didn't own Mega last year....but did own Tate.

[weepaws 2,452]

.....or 13-1, like last season, but I digress.

 

If you can't see the potential benefits of passing on Green for another WR1 and waiting on Marvin Jones as a high upside WR3 or 4 way late in the draft (who certainly has a chance of breaking out if fully healthy, and had 10 TD's in 2013, went 8/130 during the last game he played in the playoffs against SD, and is in a contract year, I believe)......then I don't guess I can help you cats.

 

BTW, didn't own Mega last year....but did own Tate.

Look at Tate stats when Mega played , he did not do much when both where on the field .

[iam90sbaby 2,121]

I have him ranked as the 4th receiver on my board but he definitely has the most upside of anyone in my top ten.

[DrG 94]

In full health Megatron is a tier unto himself. I will be watching camp reports closely. If he is in excellent health (IF) then he is #1.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

In full health Megatron is a tier unto himself. I will be watching camp reports closely. If he is in excellent health (IF) then he is #1.

Full health has been in short supply for megatron.

[roroco 75]

I'll let someone else pay the ODB tax. If I am spending a high pick on a receiver, I want to have a proven commodity, still in their prime. I would also prefer to not have a receiver named Eli throwing to him. I'd definitely rather have these guys (in no particular order yet)

 

Dez

Demaryius

Jordy

Antonio

 

I'd probably take Julio, Green, and Calvin over him too, but those are closer for me.

 

I think ODB is a stud that has a high ceiling, but he doesn't have the track record yet for what seems to be a 1st or 2nd round fantasy pick. At that high a pick, he almost has to live up to his ceiling, while these other guys just have to perform like they have the last three years.

[jdon 28]

 

I'm done with Green. Would rather have Marvin Jones later.

I can respect that.

I disagree, but I respect it. Green could really go to much faster than any of the other guys mentioned here...

[the spanker 28]

I can respect that.

I disagree, but I respect it. Green could really go to ###### much faster than any of the other guys mentioned here...

 

Like you I certainly disagree.

 

But I have to ask, what makes you think that? What credible evidence suggests Green could tank? Because of one bad season due to injury?

 

Man I'm hoping guys in my league like you so I can get him at a discount this year.

 

Oh and unlike Green, Marvin Jones has only done anything um one year in the past?

 

I'd bank on Green's past productivity resume since entering the league before banking on Jones but to each his own.

[stonewall 647]

In case I wasn't clear, barring injury, I certainly don't expect Jones to have the fantasy impact of Green. However, for the price, I would not be surprised to see him far exceed Green. In other words, a potential WR2 for a WR4 price tag....while already owning a D. Thomas or Beckham Jr.

 

In all honesty, I am down on Green. I don't doubt his talent, but do doubt his QB....which is why I would rather own a secondary WR on that team with some upside (particularly TD potential, in this case) In fact, yes, I would rather have either Manning tossing my WR1 the rock rather than the Red Rifle (or Pryor/McCarron).

[the spanker 28]

In case I wasn't clear, barring injury, I certainly don't expect Jones to have the fantasy impact of Green. However, for the price, I would not be surprised to see him far exceed Green. In other words, a potential WR2 for a WR4 price tag....while already owning a D. Thomas or Beckham Jr.

 

In all honesty, I am down on Green. I don't doubt his talent, but do doubt his QB....which is why I would rather own a secondary WR on that team with some upside (particularly TD potential, in this case) In fact, yes, I would rather have either Manning tossing my WR1 the rock rather than the Red Rifle (or Pryor/McCarron).

 

 

OK but keep in mind Green has put up elite numbers with the same QB over the years, so I don't see how that is really substantial to predicting a down tick in his productivity going forward.

[ralphster 274]

In case I wasn't clear

 

Some are gonna getcha. Some are gonna ZOMG you can't be serious Marvin Jones is not better than AJ Green!!

[giraldi02 470]

Dez. Julio. Antonio Brown. AJ.

 

Simply put, there's zero reason Odell Beckham should go ahead of them in a redraft league this year.

 

People ignore Shane Vereen. If Cruz comes back there's fewer targets. If the Giants keep games closer, they will be running the ball more. There's a lot of things that went into Odell Beckham's performance last season.

 

For the other aforementioned players though, is there ANY doubt whatsoever that they're still ELITE options?

[stonewall 647]

 

 

OK but keep in mind Green has put up elite numbers with the same QB over the years, so I don't see how that is really substantial to predicting a down tick in his productivity going forward.

 

Fair enough. He is a quality player, no doubt.....but I would just rather have ODB, Dez, DT, Julio, Mega, Jordy, or Brown as my WR1, and have a secondary receiver for the Bengals. Call it a gut feeling....and those are certainly sometimes wrong.

 

(edited to include Julio and Mega, if healthy)

[weepaws 2,452]

Fair enough. He is a quality player, no doubt.....but I would just rather have ODB, Dez, DT, Jordy, or Brown ae my WR1, and have a secondary receiver for the Bengals. Call it a gut feeling....and those are certainly sometimes wrong.

J Jones I have ahead of ajg and I have C Johnson ahead of him also .

[sirensong 111]

in large measure, it depends on how the earlier pick(s) go. if i wind up with safe guys (clearly established track records) early, i'm more inclined to pursue upside. if i land an upside pick in the first, i'd rather pair that with a known commodity.

 

of course, an alternate strategy is to go all-in on upside throughout the draft, based on trusting your assessment of what the players will actually do. but i tend to take calculated risks when drafting.

[ralphster 274]

I am of the opinion that ODB is going to bust this year - especially for where he'll be drafted. More tape to watch, more time to gameplan, more focus on him, more competition for targets and less time for Eli as the Giants are woefully thin/not healthy on the o line.

 

My prediction: He won't get more than 80% of last year's numbers. For a guy going at 1.07 that's tough. 72 receptions for 1044 and 8. Absolutely solid WR2 numbers, but not worthy of a first round pick.

[R8RMick 242]

You want to talk about a team woefully thin on the offensive line it's Denver. Couple that with the coming decline in Peyton Manning's play and I'm surprised this discussion isn't about D Thomas. Not to mention dude's unhappiness with his contract situation.

[eaglecrusherspart2 2]

For everyone passing on ODB, you are making a mistake. Sure, they have film on him now and cruz is coming back are both factors. I can keep Dez Bryant or ODB and my decision has been made. Is there a chance that Dez outperforms him next year, absolutely. The upside is way too high on him and even if they finish with similar stats, I'm ok with that. The chance that he finishes as the top fantasy player next year is what Im not willing to give up.

[weepaws 2,452]

Marvin Jones number in 2013 51/ 712 / 10 tds I looked at fftoday PPR rankings that season he ranked 29 th in points and 34th in avg per game points .

[davesnutz 4]

Odell Beckham Jr.'s 2014 season and the fantasy afterglow reminds me of Doug Martin's 2012 season and how many people were sure he was the butt-child of Marshall Faulk and Edgerinn James. He's good but don't be a fool.

[weepaws 2,452]

But what if you are wrong and he comes back and is close to as good as last season . I think it's worth a shot . He is in my top five .

[petekrum 20]

But what if you are wrong and he comes back and is close to as good as last season . I think it's worth a shot . He is in my top five .

Maybe he is wrong, but are you willing to take that chance with a high first round pick? If I'm going WR early, give me a sure thing like Dez, DT, Jordy. I need to see OBJ do it again over a full season before I'm using a one on him.

[DrG 94]

ODBs season reminds me more of Megatron and (Josh Gordon - the ganja). The high ceiling is there. If NYG has solidified their line, no way ODB doesn't get his.

[weepaws 2,452]

Maybe he is wrong, but are you willing to take that chance with a high first round pick? If I'm going WR early, give me a sure thing like Dez, DT, Jordy. I need to see OBJ do it again over a full season before I'm using a one on him.

I did not see him say anything about a early first round pick for him did you ? And I would not go WR that early and I guess when you say early you mean top three or four picks , so no I would go Rb with that pick and would not matter who the WR was . But yes later in the draft I will take a shot with him . . Right now after working on my rankings I have him at number five at WR .

[Mr Neil 63]

ODBs season reminds me more of Megatron and (Josh Gordon - the ganja). The high ceiling is there. If NYG has solidified their line, no way ODB doesn't get his.

This

[giraldi02 470]

I did not see him say anything about a early first round pick for him did you ?

He mentioned Dez, Demaryius, etc as receivers all going before him. Dez and Antonio Brown are on average being selected in the top 5 in 12-team PPR leagues on MFL.

 

Sadly though, Beckham is going in the top 3 and on average is the first player being taken.

[weepaws 2,452]

I would not take him early first round . And I don't know or keep track of where players are being drafted I just do my own rankings .

[Djgb13 2,338]

As tempting as it would be take him first round I just can't pull the trigger. Like others said, I'll take other WRs before him and even some RBs before him. A first round draft pick won't win you a championship but it certainly can lose you one

[tanatastic 2,061]

Im expecting ODB to be one of the bigger busts this year. Between sophomore slump and injury concerns, he wont live up to his top 3 wr hype. Iv said it before, things just do go according to plan in the nfl and the script says hes going to sail off into the sunset with a record breaking year. It just never goes that way. no way id take him before Antonio, Calvin, Julio, Dez (if he doesnt hold out) or even Demariyous.