Odell Beckham Jr.

[DrG 94]

His numbers last year were insane. The talent is there. Will NY throw more screens to Vareen? Did Odell have fresh legs later in the season? There are 5-6 guys you can make the case for as the #1 WR. His performance last year puts him in that conversation. With my first pick, I hope for a player that finishes at least Top 5 at his position. He missed some games last year and the sample size is smaller than other WRS. Those are reasons to bump him down a few points on the list. Josh Gordon level talent w/o the ganja is a reason to bump him up.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

I offered my second round pick for him and Brandin Cooks who can be kept for an 9th. Absolutely 0 interest from the other owner.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

I offered my second round pick for him and Brandin Cooks who can be kept for an 9th. Absolutely 0 interest from the other owner.

So you offered a second round pick and

you wanted to receive cooks and beckham in return? If so yeah thats not even remotely close to being in the ball park.

[Flgatorguy87 160]

Sorry that was poorly worded.....

 

My mid 2nd rounder + Cooks who can be retained for a 9th

 

For

 

OBJ

[Djgb13 2,338]

Sorry that was poorly worded.....

 

My mid 2nd rounder + Cooks who can be retained for a 9th

 

For

 

OBJ

I still wouldn't have made the trade. The potential is there for OBJ. What round would OBJ be retained as? I assume it's a late one since he went either undrafted in most leagues or drafted very late

[Flgatorguy87 160]

I think he was maybe a 12th? I am not overly surprised he passed, but I don't think he'd budge even if I tried using my 1st.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Sorry that was poorly worded.....

 

My mid 2nd rounder + Cooks who can be retained for a 9th

 

For

 

OBJ

Oh yeah i would have taken that in a heart beat.

[gpann101 32]

If the ODB that played hurt in 13 games still put numbers like that? I'm all in even if he's hurt for all 16 games! Add Cruz and the simple fact that Jr. SAVED Eli's AND Coughlin s jobs...definite motivation for entire team to excel! Not saying ODB is the best..just saying that I hope I do some online drafts with you nay sayers that will pass him up!

[weepaws 2,459]

In the leagues I am in he finished first points per game avg , but to say that will happen again that's hard to say . I like Jones and Brown and Dez and I even like Nelson more at this time .

[Crystal Meth Tweekers 26]

I think we do not have a large enough sample size to draft him as high as I have seen him go. Give me Dez, Calvin, Julio, Demarius and Antonio over him.

[giraldi02 470]

I have Beckham ranked second behind j Jones . And if Beckham comes close to what he did last season plus if the Giants can get Cruz back that would bump E Manning back onto the top ten right now I have him ranked 8th

 

In the leagues I am in he finished first points per game avg , but to say that will happen again that's hard to say . I like Jones and Brown and Dez and I even like Nelson more at this time .

#fickle

[tanatastic 2,061]

Ill def say Nelson ahead of odb as well. Cant pass up the best QBs top deep target. Even if he..."pales"...in comparison to ODBs upside he flashed.

[nicdolas 17]

I currently have him 4th in my WR rankings I have Brown, Dez and Jordy ahead of him, and you can throw D. Thomas and Jones in that mix as well as WR's I have withing pts of OBJ. I have more confidence in those 5 then taking a shot on OBJ, my reasons like some have stated before Cruz will take targets, Def's will roll to his side and will also jam his azz at the line.. Coughlin likes to run the ball as well and has a new toy with Vereen who can run and catch out of the backfield.

 

Talent wise I will give it to him, but I just see this team spreading the ball around more and trying to keep teams off balance this season.. Instead of force feeding him..

[weepaws 2,459]

#fickle

Yes I do keep ever changing . That's what so much fun about the off season . And until I draft it will keep on changing . I'm sure we all do up to are draft days .

[Stewburtx8 67]

 

My prediction: He won't get more than 80% of last year's numbers. For a guy going at 1.07 that's tough. 72 receptions for 1044 and 8. Absolutely solid WR2 numbers, but not worthy of a first round pick.

 

If he gets only 75% of last year's numbers PER GAME, he still puts up 91 receptions, 1305 receiving yards, and 12 TD's. ODB can "regress" this season and still be a monster fantasy contributor. You have to take into account that the numbers he put up last year were in only 12 games. I have a tough time keeping him out of my top 5 WR rankings.

[giraldi02 470]

I don't trust this kid's hamstrings

[ralphster 274]

 

If he gets only 75% of last year's numbers PER GAME, he still puts up 91 receptions, 1305 receiving yards, and 12 TD's. ODB can "regress" this season and still be a monster fantasy contributor. You have to take into account that the numbers he put up last year were in only 12 games. I have a tough time keeping him out of my top 5 WR rankings.

 

I didn't state per game, I meant the whole season. OBJ is a good young WR, but I still think every possible star and twist of fate aligned perfectly for him last year. Regression this year is very likely imo. I stand by my prediciton on him - solid WR2 - not worth the #10 overall pick (where he's at now on FFC).

[tanatastic 2,061]

 

If he gets only 75% of last year's numbers PER GAME, he still puts up 91 receptions, 1305 receiving yards, and 12 TD's. ODB can "regress" this season and still be a monster fantasy contributor. You have to take into account that the numbers he put up last year were in only 12 games. I have a tough time keeping him out of my top 5 WR rankings.

Thats what makes me nervous. That its so cut and dry, "Oh look, according to my math, he has a 100% chance to get at least 75% of his possible production from yadda yadda yadda." That kind of stuff is great but the football gods dont care. Gordon comin back last year? Cant miss right? He just sucked. thats just how it goes. The stars are aligned too perfectly for this kid, it never goes that smoothly. I dont have any math to support my points. Just like I didnt have any to say last year that Montee Ball was going to be a bust, I just knew it wasnt going to be so peaches and cream for him. "Cant miss, hes an rb with peyton, hes a lock for at least this much production." ODB has far more talent than ball tho so he could, of course, live up to top wr status.

[sirensong 111]

 

I didn't state per game, I meant the whole season. OBJ is a good young WR, but I still think every possible star and twist of fate aligned perfectly for him last year. Regression this year is very likely imo. I stand by my prediciton on him - solid WR2 - not worth the #10 overall pick (where he's at now on FFC).

 

 

i broadly agree with this, although i suspect he'll be a solid WR1. the problem with picking him at 10 is that anyone who does so is assuming that they'll get moss/megatron production out of him. does he have the talent to possibly do that? sure. but without even one full season of experience, we don;t know how defenses will adjust. randy and calvin put up their numbers even after defenses had the opportunity to isolate weaknesses both in the player and in the scheme.

 

quite simply, we don't know what defensive coordinators are seeing in ODB the player, and how he fits into the NYG offense. we don't know how they are going to adjust, and whether or not the NYG passing game can deal with those adjustments. the guy is going to get his looks, and barring injury, he's going to put up very good numbers. but we don't yet have enough information to confidently select him over the established top guys (who have proven that they can deal with defensive adjustments).

 

i strongly suspect that by the end of the season, he'll be one of the top guys on 'losing roster' lists. not because he was bad, but because he was overvalued by drafters.

[Mr Neil 63]

I think mid second round is about where he should be drafted. But he won't make it outta first round bc most who had him last year will be drooling to take him again. I have him as an 8th round keeper so I'm not worried. But in redraft I wouldn't take him until pick 16-18 overall

[stonewall 647]

i guess that I'm just a sucker for huge upside....which this kid has.

[DrG 94]

Vareen and Cruz have not been pictures of health. 2015 could be a lot like 2014.

[Stewburtx8 67]

 

I didn't state per game, I meant the whole season. OBJ is a good young WR, but I still think every possible star and twist of fate aligned perfectly for him last year. Regression this year is very likely imo. I stand by my prediciton on him - solid WR2 - not worth the #10 overall pick (where he's at now on FFC).

 

That just seems like a very aggressive drop in production.

 

2014 his per game averages were: 7.58 receptions, 108.75 receiving yards, 1 TD per game.

 

2015 per game averages at 80% of total production: 4.55 receptions, 65.25 receiving yards, 0.5 TD's per game

 

So really you are projected his per game averages are cut by more than 40%?

 

I can get on board with regression, just not THAT much regression. I think he can "regress" and still be a top 5 WR this year.

[Matt Mueller 146]

^ I'm not sure where I fall on ODB yet but just looking back to Cruz's breakout year.

 

After he posted 131 82-1,536-9 he followed that up with MORE targets, receptions and tds but his final line dropped to 143- 86- 1,092, 10

 

He went from WR 4 to WR 13. Not bad but not elite.

 

I wouldn't be too suprised to see ODB follow somewhat of a similar path.

[weepaws 2,459]

Beckham came into the NFL with a lot more upside than Cruz . So I don't see him falling off that much . I still like him in the top five WRs .

[lesjroza 70]

If you ever played any kind of sport seriously you have probably experienced that feeling of being "in the zone".

 

Its not luck per se, you are making it happen. You're two steps ahead of everybody and you are setting people up to smoke them plays before it actually happens.

 

The momentum and confidence feeds on itself and it snowballs....................... until the run just ends.

 

The same talent, preparation level, etc in another time period just doesn't realize the same results. Sometimes it can be the complete opposite and everything is a struggle.

 

I'm not a believer that ODB "regresses" which implies there is a mean number which he exceeded and now must necessarily achieve lower production........but watching him he was clearly "in the zone" for much of that run last year.

 

I also don't have a concern about his hamstrings............. at least not any more than Dez's back........... or Julio's foot.............. or DTs potential holdout (and accompanying injury tweaks).........or Jordy's rehab (which seems substantial and is underreported).

 

I'm also less concerned than others about Beckham's ability to adjust to defensive adjustments. He has shown the ability to dominate at all 3 levels of the field, and he has an experienced QB in Eli so its not like they can just take away the 1 or 2 things he does well which is what shuts down some 2nd year guys.

 

If you project ODB's numbers over a whole season he is definitely the overall #1 but its tough to count on him having another run like that for the whole year.

 

I see no reason at all to drop him out of the top tier though............. Julio, Dez, DT, ODB.........give me any one of them.......the last of those 4 that are left, whatever-its all good

[ralphster 274]

 

That just seems like a very aggressive drop in production.

 

2014 his per game averages were: 7.58 receptions, 108.75 receiving yards, 1 TD per game.

 

2015 per game averages at 80% of total production: 4.55 receptions, 65.25 receiving yards, 0.5 TD's per game

 

So really you are projected his per game averages are cut by more than 40%?

 

I can get on board with regression, just not THAT much regression. I think he can "regress" and still be a top 5 WR this year.

 

Ok you extrapolated some numbers there - solid math - just not what I was meaning. I have him projected for around 220-230 points in PPR next year; roughly 80% of his scoring total last year. Those are solid WR2 type numbers; 13-18 a week kinda guys. Last year he averaged nearly 25 points per week. I believe in his talent but I'm tempering my expectations. I doubt I'll ever own him at his current pricing.

[Stewburtx8 67]

 

Ok you extrapolated some numbers there - solid math - just not what I was meaning. I have him projected for around 220-230 points in PPR next year; roughly 80% of his scoring total last year. Those are solid WR2 type numbers; 13-18 a week kinda guys. Last year he averaged nearly 25 points per week. I believe in his talent but I'm tempering my expectations. I doubt I'll ever own him at his current pricing.

 

I understood exactly what you said.

 

So the numbers I showed there on a per game basis would come to a season total of 73 catches, 1045 yards, 8 TD's over 16 games. That's 225 points in PPR, which falls in line with your projection.

 

My point is that I have trouble projecting THAT big of a decline for a guy that put up 91 catches, 1305 yards, and 12 TD's in TWELVE games last year. So like I said, on a per game basis, your projections are saying he will decline by roughly 40%. We will have to agree to disagree on that.

[weepaws 2,459]

Simple math .

[ralphster 274]

We will have to agree to disagree on that.

 

Indeed we shall. I'm sure whoever ends up right will dig this thread up come January or so.

[BigBBlue 0]

Odell Beckham Jr.'s 2014 season and the fantasy afterglow reminds me of Doug Martin's 2012 season and how many people were sure he was the butt-child of Marshall Faulk and Edgerinn James. He's good but don't be a fool.

 

I disagree, but think that's funny as heck. An actual out loud chuckle

 

ODBs season reminds me more of Megatron and (Josh Gordon - the ganja). The high ceiling is there. If NYG has solidified their line, no way ODB doesn't get his.

 

 

The line is going to be an issue for a while, as it was last year. I'm in the ridiculuously high ceiling camp. Almost anything is possible. The schedule (AFC East, NFC South) helps too.

 

 

 

I think he was maybe a 12th? I am not overly surprised he passed, but I don't think he'd budge even if I tried using my 1st.

 

Keeping him in a double digit round. You might have to offer some outside the league, under the table compensation to get that deal done.

 

 

If he gets only 75% of last year's numbers PER GAME, he still puts up 91 receptions, 1305 receiving yards, and 12 TD's. ODB can "regress" this season and still be a monster fantasy contributor. You have to take into account that the numbers he put up last year were in only 12 games. I have a tough time keeping him out of my top 5 WR rankings.

 

I'm in leagues with many other fellow NYG fans. He'll be Top 3 WR taken, and quite possibly #1WR in the 1st round. Depending on league settings, early first is possible. I'll probalbly hedge and pass on him at those prices(spots) so I'm not doubly miserable if he gets hurt. Plus I'm an injury magnet, and don't like to jinx my players (sorry Rashad).

 

I think mid second round is about where he should be drafted. But he won't make it outta first round bc most who had him last year will be drooling to take him again. I have him as an 8th round keeper so I'm not worried. But in redraft I wouldn't take him until pick 16-18 overall

 

Yes, I'll be happy to get him mid 2nd. I just don't think he lasts. 8th round keeper. SOLID.

 

Beckham came into the NFL with a lot more upside than Cruz . So I don't see him falling off that much . I still like him in the top five WRs .

Cruz is no OBJ. I'm a big Cruz fan, but he is all about the speed, and I don't see him making those catches. Now a step (hopefully only one) slower, I'm hoping to get RR on the cheap.

[the spanker 28]

If you ever played any kind of sport seriously you have probably experienced that feeling of being "in the zone".

 

Its not luck per se, you are making it happen. You're two steps ahead of everybody and you are setting people up to smoke them plays before it actually happens.

 

The momentum and confidence feeds on itself and it snowballs....................... until the run just ends.

 

The same talent, preparation level, etc in another time period just doesn't realize the same results. Sometimes it can be the complete opposite and everything is a struggle.

 

I'm not a believer that ODB "regresses" which implies there is a mean number which he exceeded and now must necessarily achieve lower production........but watching him he was clearly "in the zone" for much of that run last year.

 

I also don't have a concern about his hamstrings............. at least not any more than Dez's back........... or Julio's foot.............. or DTs potential holdout (and accompanying injury tweaks).........or Jordy's rehab (which seems substantial and is underreported).

 

I'm also less concerned than others about Beckham's ability to adjust to defensive adjustments. He has shown the ability to dominate at all 3 levels of the field, and he has an experienced QB in Eli so its not like they can just take away the 1 or 2 things he does well which is what shuts down some 2nd year guys.

 

If you project ODB's numbers over a whole season he is definitely the overall #1 but its tough to count on him having another run like that for the whole year.

 

I see no reason at all to drop him out of the top tier though............. Julio, Dez, DT, ODB.........give me any one of them.......the last of those 4 that are left, whatever-its all good

 

 

No Brown?

[lesjroza 70]

 

 

No Brown?

 

I was waiting for someone to bring up that exclusion. No Brown for me.

 

I have been wrong on him every year. So its really hard for me to flip the switch emotionally and just better if I don't include him.......let somebody else draft him.

 

This should be the year another WR soaks up some of his targets. I mean its gotta be Martavis right? You want a big go to guy on 3rd and 5 ........ and in red zone situations for sure.

 

Take down Antonio by 20-30 tgts for the year Take away a few red zone scores and it moves him into the next tier down.

 

Not because he isn't capable of doing more, just because you want to have a big 1B type doing some of the dirty work at some point.

 

Anyway, what's likely to happen is.......... he laps the field again this year, next year I give up and move him into MY top tier and suffice it to say the top for Antonio Brown will be in at that point. You won't want to own him when I give in.

[the spanker 28]

 

I was waiting for someone to bring up that exclusion. No Brown for me.

 

I have been wrong on him every year. So its really hard for me to flip the switch emotionally and just better if I don't include him.......let somebody else draft him.

 

This should be the year another WR soaks up some of his targets. I mean its gotta be Martavis right? You want a big go to guy on 3rd and 5 ........ and in red zone situations for sure.

 

Take down Antonio by 20-30 tgts for the year Take away a few red zone scores and it moves him into the next tier down.

 

Not because he isn't capable of doing more, just because you want to have a big 1B type doing some of the dirty work at some point.

 

Anyway, what's likely to happen is.......... he laps the field again this year, next year I give up and move him into MY top tier and suffice it to say the top for Antonio Brown will be in at that point. You won't want to own him when I give in.

 

 

Good thanks for the insider info. I'll take AB first opportunity I have in my draft then.

 

He's a reception machine. I don't see that changing this season.

[lesjroza 70]

 

 

Good thanks for the insider info. I'll take AB first opportunity I have in my draft then.

 

He's a reception machine. I don't see that changing this season.

 

Sure, I don't disagree with you. Still, when (notice-not if..... but when) I end up being wrong again I haven't lost much by drafting one of my other 4 guys instead of Brown.

 

To delve a bit more into my thesis since I have a moment it isn't just the idea that a bigger target could take away some of ABs targets with a theoretical higher efficiency in certain situations, its also the hypothesis that the overall pie would/should get smaller at some point.

 

Small illustration:

 

2010 12-4 NFC North 1st place Won conference Championship Lost Super Bowl

2011 12-4 NFC North 2nd place Lost Wild Card playoffs in OT

2012 8-8 3rd place staying home

2013 8-8 2nd place staying home

2014 11-5 1st lost Wild card playoffs to Ravens badly

 

Team

Passing attempts ABs receptions

 

2010 479

2011 539 69

2012 574 66

2013 586 110

2014 612 129

 

I don't think its a stretch to say the Steelers have been throwing the ball more because they have had to, in order it to move it, and in order to compensate for a poor defense.

 

I don't think its a stretch to say they have been less successful as a team overall with that higher pass/run ratio.

 

I don't think its a stretch to say if they were able to run the ball better and play better D they would throw it less. They are one of the organizations that has a heritage of teams built on running the ball and playing tough D. Their venue still gives them tactical advantage for a team built in this fashion.

 

None of these numbers prove anything of course, I'm just trying to illustrate my general thought process. I have believed incorrectly that at some point they will switch back to previous roots and the passing game pie will shrink. It could be outright wrong or it could be early in the sense that they simply haven't gotten better yet in the areas they need to. I have also believed incorrectly that they would find a bigger WR to count on in some situations which when combined would mean AB will be getting a smaller share of what is a shrinking pie.

 

Not sure if I'm flat out wrong or just early, but again, I haven't and likely won't lose much by not having him in my top tier and staying true to my own ideas.

[the spanker 28]

 

Sure, I don't disagree with you. Still, when (notice-not if..... but when) I end up being wrong again I haven't lost much by drafting one of my other 4 guys instead of Brown.

 

To delve a bit more into my thesis since I have a moment it isn't just the idea that a bigger target could take away some of ABs targets with a theoretical higher efficiency in certain situations, its also the hypothesis that the overall pie would/should get smaller at some point.

 

Small illustration:

 

2010 12-4 NFC North 1st place Won conference Championship Lost Super Bowl

2011 12-4 NFC North 2nd place Lost Wild Card playoffs in OT

2012 8-8 3rd place staying home

2013 8-8 2nd place staying home

2014 11-5 1st lost Wild card playoffs to Ravens badly

 

Team

Passing attempts ABs receptions

 

2010 479

2011 539 69

2012 574 66

2013 586 110

2014 612 129

 

I don't think its a stretch to say the Steelers have been throwing the ball more because they have had to, in order it to move it, and in order to compensate for a poor defense.

 

I don't think its a stretch to say they have been less successful as a team overall with that higher pass/run ratio.

 

I don't think its a stretch to say if they were able to run the ball better and play better D they would throw it less. They are one of the organizations that has a heritage of teams built on running the ball and playing tough D. Their venue still gives them tactical advantage for a team built in this fashion.

 

None of these numbers prove anything of course, I'm just trying to illustrate my general thought process. I have believed incorrectly that at some point they will switch back to previous roots and the passing game pie will shrink. It could be outright wrong or it could be early in the sense that they simply haven't gotten better yet in the areas they need to. I have also believed incorrectly that they would find a bigger WR to count on in some situations which when combined would mean AB will be getting a smaller share of what is a shrinking pie.

 

Not sure if I'm flat out wrong or just early, but again, I haven't and likely won't lose much by not having him in my top tier and staying true to my own ideas.

 

 

I agree with everything you said. However that defense still looks like it still needs a major overhaul and they will have to put points on the board to be competitive.

 

All of the other WRs you cited are not without risk of their own.

 

ODB - Will those hammies hold up? Can he perform at an elite level for another season now that teams have film and be able to study him? Who's going to take pressure off of him?

 

Julio - You don't lose much? He was 75 pts less than AB last year in my PPR league. Again, can he play a 16 game season?

 

DT - Hold out. Peyton arm strength more questionable than ever before. Broncos want to run the snot out of the ball.

 

Dez - Will he be the same if he gets paid? Will brittle back Romo survive with no true running game with Defenses able to key on him now?

 

I'd take any of those guys too however it's not necessarily a hole-in-one here.

[lesjroza 70]

 

 

I agree with everything you said. However that defense still looks like it still needs a major overhaul and they will have to put points on the board to be competitive.

 

All of the other WRs you cited are not without risk of their own.

 

ODB - Will those hammies hold up? Can he perform at an elite level for another season now that teams have film and be able to study him? Who's going to take pressure off of him?

 

Julio - You don't lose much? He was 75 pts less than AB last year in my PPR league. Again, can he play a 16 game season?

 

DT - Hold out. Peyton arm strength more questionable than ever before. Broncos want to run the snot out of the ball.

 

Dez - Will he be the same if he gets paid? Will brittle back Romo survive with no true running game with Defenses able to key on him now?

 

I'd take any of those guys too however it's not necessarily a hole-in-one here.

 

 

Yep, I think I mentioned most of that earlier in this thread actually. The thing is I don't project injuries. I will discount a guy or take them off my board if I'm nervous and I'm not with any of those this year............. for now. I actually think DT is the one that might scare me the most if he goes right up to game 1 sitting out.

 

On the other hand l do project targets. I'm not there yet for 2015, but when I do it will look unrealistically low for Brown when compared with others projections (not falling of a cliff likely in the same tier with Cobb). You are correct that the fall off probably won't be this year, but its coming.

 

Unless............... they can get back to the glory days of Steeler championships while going through a season involved in shootouts.

And unless they are unable to develop a big #2 that can take those red zone and 3rd and 5 targets.

 

 

Could be 2016, but its coming eventually.....smaller share of a shrinking pie

[the spanker 28]

Been so busy I nearly forgot about this thread.

 

I have no disagreement about your shrinking pie theory at all as it should eventually happen because I'm sure the Steelers want to get back to their roots of playing D and controlling the clock with the running game.

 

But for now, I just don't see it and that plays to a lot of AB being involved.

 

Plus he's simply and probably the best route runner out there with elite skills that can break it to the house on any given play.

 

Big Ben force feeds him the ball because of those qualities. Your right, it's unlikely much changes this year.

[ralphster 274]

Mods should split these last few posts to an A Brown thread so this one can stay on ODB. /derail

[Flgatorguy87 160]

Concur ^