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T-Rich climbing the draft charts

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He's now averaging 5th round. Pagano's singing his praises from OTAs and he's getting all the first team carries in camp so far. What round do you have him in now? Or do you pass altogether?

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5th is still great value imo, and i really am not a fan. He is going to get volume, at least for the first half the season until he proves he doesnt suck.

 

I just think he did a solid job in cleveland with what little talent there was around him. Maybe it was just a playbook thing. He has all the physical tools.

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Hmmm.... Where are you seeing his stock is climbing? In redrafts, not mock drafts - the real thing, his stock is staying pretty steady. It hasn't moved in the last month. He went at the 6.03 in my last redraft (Tuesday) and on Saturday of last week he went at the 6.05. The previous drafts saw him go anywhere from the late 5th to the mid 6th. Not really any change at all.

 

There are some serious positives and negatives with TRich. The upside is tremendous. They have Wayne healthy, both of their TE's back and they've added Nicks and drafted Moncrief to pair with Rodgers, giving them speed with their 4th, 5th and 6th WR's. They didn't have that last year, plus, Allen going down seriously hurt their run blocking. He's a flat out good run blocker. The line will have been together long enough to have gelled and Trent should know the playbook.

 

The negatives - Trent has absolutely no burst. You can youtube the videos of him making the wrong reads, hitting the wrong holes (insert your own joke here) and whiffing badly in pass protection. Once he gets going, he's like Steven Jackson; Hard to bring down. The problem is getting him going.

 

A sixth round miss isn't going to kill you though and there are much worse players I've seen drafted here. If you take him, you had better have Bradshaw/Ballard waiting in the wings. His leash is going to be very short. He may be the most boom or bust player this season. I own him in a few redrafts, but am not going to load up on him too much. I have Bradshaw as a backup in each league I own him in and in the leagues I do not, I'm still grabbing Bradshaw towards the end of the draft as I think he fits this Colts offense better than TRich.

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Can bradshaw play without getting hurt? Not sure about spending a roster spot on him. You cant handcuff all your rbs, so i would think this is a situation where you draft trich and hope he doesnt get pulled.

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I took T-Rich in my money league (Yeah, I'll be sweating bullets until he gets a couple good games under his belt this season), but I didn't handcuff him. I already had a to waste a roster spot for Freeman because I took S-Jax. I figure S-Jax is much more risky with the age/injury thing, and I really want to have Atlanta's RB on my roster this year, because I think they are gonna put up tons of points this year.

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The leagues I have taken Bradshaw in are 12 team leagues with 25 roster spots. We have 22 man rosters and 3 Taxi slots. If I only had an 18 or 20 man roster limit, I NEVER draft handcuffs. Odds are Bradshaw, TRich and Ballard all end up injured. Some guy we've never heard of will end up winning a ton of people their league after they pick him up on the waiver wire, then we'll all remember how the initial draft is highly overrated.

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Do not draft. I owned him last year. Lets face it, he just simply does not impress. No elite speed/quicknes. Good power but awful vision. Why would you want him in the 5th?

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Matthew Berry wrote an article on ESPN.com in which he did a study on the percentage of points that come from drafted players versus players picked up off waivers. 75% of all points from the running back position last year came from players who were drafted. I think the draft is still pretty damn important.

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I had him in both leagues last year and thought I was getting a real bargain. I figured he was a mortal lock for about 300 carries and 50 receptions, putting T Rich at about 1,500 total yards and double digit TDs. :rolleyes:

 

In the 5th round of my 14 teamer I'd have to think about it, but based on the 4-5 games I saw him play last year T Rich looked terrible. He never cut it to the outside and seemed to run directly into defenders without making them miss or even getting yards after contact.

 

It's possible he didn't understand the playbook, but getting vastly outplayed by Donald Brown isn't a real good sign.

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I'm not buying the "he's got no talent" one bit. He made some pretty great runs as a rookie for the Browns. He made quick cuts. Broke tons of tackles. Hit the line fast for a lousy team. The players rated him the 71st best player in the NFL that year. He might have mental issues ala Mendenhall, but he certainly doesn't lack talent. I guess we'll just have to see. I know it's hard for people to draft a guy who let you down the year before, I'm guilty as well, but I'm betting the circumstances were messed up last year. Pagano's blowing sunshine up his butt to boost his confidence, he's on a team that SHOULD have a good passing game to keep people out of the box, and all indications are that he's miles ahead of where he was as far as knowing where to run.

 

p.s. Not to mention that he played last year with a chipped collar bone and a dislocated AC joint.

 

p.p.s. It's Rotoworld that's saying he's getting drafted in the 5th.

 

(Is it obvious I'm trying real hard to convince myself that he's gonna be a good back? This is what happens when you don't start drafting backs until the 3rd round, and you grab your RB#2 in the 5th.)

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If you're drafting him as a failure who might turn things around, that's great. I'd say 6th or 7th round there.

 

But at some point people just assume he WILL turn things around and he gets drafted accordingly. He's no longer worth drafting then because there's no upside--if everything comes together then he was worth his draft position, otherwise he will be a bust (again).

 

Personally I think fourth round territory is when I stop considering him. If he's getting drafted as anything more than a very low-end RB2, I think that's too much. Mind you when I say very low end RB2 I mean he's the guy you take if you waited to draft your second RB until after everyone else, maybe because you went Graham-WR or took a top QB early.

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He's undervalued for sure... Has he sucked, absolutely. But he is in the correct situation, which often times trumps skill.

 

Most RBs after the 1st 5 or so are a crap shoot anyhow.

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Lynch is the best comp if you want to look towards someone who struggled with his new team before finally getting it.

 

Personally I'm still undecided on him. Def see the value and even if his YPC isn't outstanding he can still have a season like Bell did last year or he did his rookie year.

 

I also am not sure the Colts will have anyone to really turn to like they did with Brown. Both of the other guys are coming off injury.

 

He was just so awful last year though. Makes me kind of rather 'miss' on his potential value and take an RB earlier and a WR in round 5-6.

 

Id rather get a M. Floyd or M. Wallace there.

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Something else that stands out is that in about a bajllion NFL touches his longest career rush is 32 and longest reception 27.

 

You don't need those home runs to put up fantasy stats but that's not particularly good to me.

 

His receiving average is very nice though.

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Yeah, Victor Cruz and D-Jax were there. Could've taken them. But then S-Jax would've been my #2, and my #3 would be from the Pierre Thomas, Woodhead, Moreno group. Rolled the dice. Oh well, it's not supposed to be easy, right?

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He can climb the draft boards all he wants, he aint climbin mine. I do not buy the playbook excuse. RB is a simple position, grab the ball and run. Thats why rookie rbs have succes despite not having a chance to learn. WRs struggle since there is more to know and absorb. He will prob get carries but if he isnt scoring alot with them its a team killer situation. A guy that you feel you have to start that gets you 5 pnts a game meanwhile ur 9th rnd sleepers are scoring 10 or more sometimes.

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That's the thing. He HAD success as a rookie. If you're gonna put L'eveon Bell in your first round because of his 860 yds rush for 3.5 and 399 yards rec for 8.9, then how is it any different from putting Richardson who went for 950 yds rush for 3.6 and 367 yds rec for 7.2 as a rookie? The only difference is that Richardson got traded mid-season, and didn't know the playbook, and had a chipped collar bone and separated AC joint. If you're willing to put your faith in Bell, wouldn't you also be willing to put your faith in Richardson? (Again, I know I sound desperate here. But this all makes sense when you put yourself in a position that you had no other choice but to take him)

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He can climb the draft boards all he wants, he aint climbin mine. I do not buy the playbook excuse. RB is a simple position, grab the ball and run. Thats why rookie rbs have succes despite not having a chance to learn. WRs struggle since there is more to know and absorb. He will prob get carries but if he isnt scoring alot with them its a team killer situation. A guy that you feel you have to start that gets you 5 pnts a game meanwhile ur 9th rnd sleepers are scoring 10 or more sometimes.

That's a tad simplistic. Yes it is much easier for an RB to learn the system and playbook and all that than it is for a wide receiver. But it's hard for ANY player, regardless of position, to come into a new scheme mid season and immediately thrive.

 

There's a reason in-season trades are exceedingly rare in the NFL

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TRich has eclipsed the 4 ypc mark in four games over two seasons. That's just not very good.

 

But....given his current ADP.....he's not a horrible roll of the dice. As a RB3.....sure, it's a good gamble. As an every week starter? Yikes.

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The Colts offense will average a little over 100 yds on the ground and a bout a TD per game.

 

Andrew Luck will gain 25% of those yards and score 25-35% of those TD. That doesn't allow a whole lot of opportunities for a deep group of backs. Some will prosper in the passing game; Richardson is ok in that aspect.

 

I don't see a RB on that team that's going to be a clear starter or produce better than 500/600 yds rushing, a couple hundred yds receiving, a couple TD. It's the New England backfield quagmire with less talent.

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The Colts offense will average a little over 100 yds on the ground and a bout a TD per game.

 

Andrew Luck will gain 25% of those yards and score 25-35% of those TD. That doesn't allow a whole lot of opportunities for a deep group of backs. Some will prosper in the passing game; Richardson is ok in that aspect.

 

I don't see a RB on that team that's going to be a clear starter or produce better than 500/600 yds rushing, a couple hundred yds receiving, a couple TD. It's the New England backfield quagmire with less talent.

Except they traded a first round pick for TRich, so clearly they WANT to have a bellcow running back. The question is whether TRich is up to the task in any way , shape or form. Certainly wasn't last year but now that he should have a better grasp on the system and so forth... :dunno:

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Crap, he didn't practice today. Leg issues. This blows. I just know I'm gonna end up benching him for some receiver like Markus Wheaton come game 1. Sigh.

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Except they traded a first round pick for TRich, so clearly they WANT to have a bellcow running back. The question is whether TRich is up to the task in any way , shape or form. Certainly wasn't last year but now that he should have a better grasp on the system and so forth... :dunno:

 

I don't think trading a late first rounder for a former Top 3 overall pick necessarily means they want a "bellcow" back; it's just great value if the guy pans out. There are so few "bellcow backs" today that I don't think teams make that a priority or are on the lookout for such a thing.

 

Both Ballard and Bradshaw are guys the team has shown little hesitation in playing when healthy. Each has had as much or more success than Richardson in their careers. Not sure why that would suddenly change their thinking unless Richardson suddenly shows skills he hasn't shown yet in his NFL career. :dunno:

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I don't think trading a late first rounder for a former Top 3 overall pick necessarily means they want a "bellcow" back; it's just great value if the guy pans out. There are so few "bellcow backs" today that I don't think teams make that a priority or are on the lookout for such a thing.

 

Both Ballard and Bradshaw are guys the team has shown little hesitation in playing when healthy. Each has had as much or more success than Richardson in their careers. Not sure why that would suddenly change their thinking unless Richardson suddenly shows skills he hasn't shown yet in his NFL career. :dunno:

I disagree, trading a first round pick for any RB is terrible value. It's not like the trade was just too good to pass up -- they wanted an elite bellcow running back and they thought that was their chance to get one who could step right in and play. Now they were wrong about that but I think they'd still love for TRich to be a 300 carry back given what they paid for him.

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The discussion over his adp is a moot point for anyone who will not be drafting until later in august. I think his stock is going to get to 3rd round with some decent play in preseason.

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That's a tad simplistic. Yes it is much easier for an RB to learn the system and playbook and all that than it is for a wide receiver. But it's hard for ANY player, regardless of position, to come into a new scheme mid season and immediately thrive.

 

There's a reason in-season trades are exceedingly rare in the NFL

Ill admit theres a chance he comes in and plays great. I do agree with another poster that we are being hard on him and giving leveon bell a pass at the same time for some reason despite similar ypc. I guess its just my personal belief, kind of like my montee ball bust thread, so its up to you to decide.

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I disagree, trading a first round pick for any RB is terrible value. It's not like the trade was just too good to pass up -- they wanted an elite bellcow running back and they thought that was their chance to get one who could step right in and play. Now they were wrong about that but I think they'd still love for TRich to be a 300 carry back given what they paid for him.

 

So your feeling is, despite all indicators to the contrary, Indy made that trade thinking Richardson was going to be on a par with Peterson, McCoy and Charles?

 

My feeling is they thought they were contenders and saw the chance to turn the #26 pick into a Top 3 at a position where injury and inexperience had left them perilously thin. Ballard got hurt in Week 1 after establishing himself as their #1 in 2012 when he ran for 814 yds. There was no question he was their guy going into last year.

 

That 2012 team ran for a little over 100 yds a game, Luck ran for 15-20 % of that and led the team in rushing TD (5 of their 11).

 

Their options last year were Donald Brown and the hopes that Bradshaw might recover enough to help. They had to do something, and Richardson was as good a gamble as was available.

 

This is Luck's team en route to becoming an elite NFL passing offense. RB are pieces in what they want to do, not focal points.

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So your feeling is, despite all indicators to the contrary, Indy made that trade thinking Richardson was going to be on a par with Peterson, McCoy and Charles?

 

My feeling is they thought they were contenders and saw the chance to turn the #26 pick into a Top 3 at a position where injury and inexperience had left them perilously thin. Ballard got hurt in Week 1 after establishing himself as their #1 in 2012 when he ran for 814 yds. There was no question he was their guy going into last year.

 

That 2012 team ran for a little over 100 yds a game, Luck ran for 15-20 % of that and led the team in rushing TD (5 of their 11).

 

Their options last year were Donald Brown and the hopes that Bradshaw might recover enough to help. They had to do something, and Richardson was as good a gamble as was available.

 

This is Luck's team en route to becoming an elite NFL passing offense. RB are pieces in what they want to do, not focal points.

My position is, if they wanted "a top 3 at the position" it's because they intended on using that player quite a bit. You don't agree? Why go out and get a top guy if he's just a stopgap? Especially at a position like RB where street free agents sometimes have considerable success?

 

I don't think we're arguing over that much, though. I agree that it is clearly Luck's team at the end of the day. I just think they want a strong running game and thought that TRich could be the centerpiece for that aspect of their offense.

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Yeah, but running backs on teams that pass well and don't have big targets for the QB to throw to in the end zone, get a lot of cheap TDs. I think that and his clear ability to catch the ball in the flats and for some reason be able to make the moves he doesn't seem capable of when he gets a hand off are his saving grace. Nobody can say he sucked at catching the ball out of the backfield and making things happen after the catch. Nobody can say he didn't do well on plunging it into the line at the goal line. It's just the bread and butter running that he had issues with God, he was so aggressive in college and so tentative last year. It was like a different back. I still don't get it.

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This whole thread boils down to one thing. Pep Hamilton is an idiot who wants to run the ball when he has one of the elite at QB. As soon as they can him week 8 when they are .500 and sick of pretending to be a running team then my man Chud, who try hired as an "Offensive Consultant", will take the reins and they will never look back. And then T rich can just go back to being an after thought in that offense. Pep hasn't grasp yet that this isn't Stanford and ground and pound doesn't work well in the NFL. Think of me once this happens

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Well, you still have to run the ball. I'd definitely set up the run with the pass. Nicks and Hilton should be a nice combo. The safeties won't be able to cheat up like they did last year after Wayne and the tight ends got hurt. But I think they'll end up bringing Bradshaw in a bunch for his elusiveness. Richardson should still collect the cheap TDs and the bulk of the carries.....unless he really does suck.

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This whole thread boils down to one thing. Pep Hamilton is an idiot who wants to run the ball when he has one of the elite at QB. As soon as they can him week 8 when they are .500 and sick of pretending to be a running team then my man Chud, who try hired as an "Offensive Consultant", will take the reins and they will never look back. And then T rich can just go back to being an after thought in that offense. Pep hasn't grasp yet that this isn't Stanford and ground and pound doesn't work well in the NFL. Think of me once this happens

Hamilton is my biggest reservation about that offense.

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Considering they put 391 with all the injuries they had and a new running back who didn't know what hole to run to, I don't think the offense was all that shabby. I'm betting they put up about 430 this year.

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Don't know if you saw the blurb on fftoday homepage, Ballard carted off the field with non contact ankle injury.

Mort saying its a torn Achilles.

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Feel bad for Ballard. A torn Achilles is going to cost him the whole season. A wonder the Colts will make a move for someone like Mikel Leshoure...

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Not making any decisions until I see a few pre-season games. After the first half dozen RBS are taken, every RB taken has risk. Yes, you can get the same value in the 3rd round as the 8th ... TRich as a boom/bust RB3-4 which is kind of what you expect taking a RB a little further back.

 

The mocks are okay for ironing out the rust and making sure you have good balance to start your draft, but almost any ADP at this point is premature.

 

Off the subject, but where is Madd Futher Mucker? I haven't seen him post in awhile. Same for Stewburtie and some of the other site pros?

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Not making any decisions until I see a few pre-season games. After the first half dozen RBS are taken, every RB taken has risk. Yes, you can get the same value in the 3rd round as the 8th ... TRich as a boom/bust RB3-4 which is kind of what you expect taking a RB a little further back.

 

The mocks are okay for ironing out the rust and making sure you have good balance to start your draft, but almost any ADP at this point is premature.

 

Off the subject, but where is Madd Futher Mucker? I haven't seen him post in awhile. Same for Stewburtie and some of the other site pros?

Stewburt has been posting here and there. Of course you could read this guys Frozenbeernuts. He has some things to say sometimes :(

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Not making any decisions until I see a few pre-season games. After the first half dozen RBS are taken, every RB taken has risk. Yes, you can get the same value in the 3rd round as the 8th ... TRich as a boom/bust RB3-4 which is kind of what you expect taking a RB a little further back.

 

The mocks are okay for ironing out the rust and making sure you have good balance to start your draft, but almost any ADP at this point is premature.

 

Off the subject, but where is Madd Futher Mucker? I haven't seen him post in awhile. Same for Stewburtie and some of the other site pros?

Madd Futher Mucker has been dealing with some real life issues (So I've heard). Hopefully everything goes in a positive direction and he's able to get back into fantasy football and drop his wisdom on us. Great guy for sure!!

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