k9tofive

I just posted this Who to Start/Sit method It could help you.

Please forgive me since the table wont come out great, but the premise is this: I took historical game by game data and figured out AVG FFPTs/gm for the different positions in different tiers going against different Def. Put the players you drafted into tiers. These tiers should be based on YOUR rankings. Teir 1 is the 12th QB, 12th RB, 12WR, etc. Teir 2 is 13-24 QB, etc. This example is for a 12 team league. Our point system is 6pts TD (incl QB), 25 PaYds/pt, 10 RushYds or RecYds/pt, etc. for standard point league. No PPR. You then have to rank each Defense. Top 8 = Strong, Bottom 8 = Weak, middle = Average. Then you just go across and down. Highest pts starts, lowest sits. For example: QB1 scores, ON AVERAGE FROM 1990-2006, 23.8pts vs a Weak Def. QB2 vs. Strong scores 13.7 Defense Strength Tier 1 2 3 4 5 6 qb Weak 23.8 19.1 16.4 Average 19.3 15.6 13.4 Strong 16.6 13.7 10.0 rb Weak 18.8 15.2 13.4 11.4 8.6 6.6 Average 17.3 12.6 10.5 9.2 6.9 5.5 Strong 13.0 9.4 8.5 6.9 6.5 4.8 te Weak 8.3 6.1 4.3 Average 6.5 4.4 3.3 Strong 6.3 2.6 2.1 wr Weak 12.5 11.1 9.3 6.3 6.9 6.3 Average 11.7 9.5 8.5 8.1 6.3 5.0 Strong 10.0 8.1 6.3 5.3 4.4 4.4 I can email this table to someone if they PM me with email info.

Not knowing your league or how you qualify good defenses, here is how I would do it: Lee Evans, a Teir1 or T2 Calvin Johnson is a T3, poss T4. Both DEF they are facing can be considered "Strong." In my league (6pt TDs for QBs, everything else standard, no PPR) i went thru all games from 1990 and can expect a Teir 1 WR to score ~10 points vs. STRONG Def. If you think Evans is T2, then 8.1 vs. STRONG Def. A T3 would expect to score 6.3. T4 then 5.3. I think Evans is the clear choice.

The QB-WR hookup, IMO, is boom-or-bust and makes you more vulnerable to an upset but gives you a better chance of pulling off an upset. So if you think you are the underdog, then go ahead and start the entire Detroit passing attack. If you are the favorite, then diversification is a better strategy. Inconsistent players help bad teams more than similar consistent players from the same tier do. If you think about it, how many times has your FF been significantly better on paper only to lose to some whose WR3 or TE1 catches 2TDs for 80yds? I based my sit/start decisions on something a little more geeky: AVG points scored for Teir1/2/3 QBs/RBs/WRs/TEs against a def that is either Strong, Average or Weak. Let's me sleep at night. . .

I understand this is CW, but the only way to do it would have been to sacrifice Palmer - and I would not have had a chance at Brady, Bulger or Brees. Last year, I found Andre Johnson. Year before, TJH. I feel that R Brown or Berrimen could provide WR1 #s. Now, it is in the ref's hands. . . .

12 Teams, 15 rounds. Standard scoring, no PPR. QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-WR-TE-K-DEF LT, SJ then Addai went 3rd. Alexander, Gore, LJ next. Going in I thought I would be choosing between FWP and Henry. I was leaning towards Henry because I like to support a guy with 9 kids by 9 different women in 4 states. Then Westbrook was taken, followed by Rudi Johnson. And then my pick: Henry or Bush - who I did not think would be there. I took Bush for the upside and lack of progeny. Parker, Henry & Moreny closed out Round 1. Round 1 1 LaDainian Tomlinson 2 Steven Jackson 3 Joseph Addai 4 Shaun Alexander 5 Frank Gore 6 Larry Johnson 7 Brian Westbrook 8 Rudi Johnson 9 Reggie Bush 10 Willie Parker 11 Travis Henry 12 Laurence Maroney Round two started with Peyton, Steve Smith and MJD. All the mocks/ADP I looked at had Palmer here as a choice for me, so I was ready for this decision. It would have been between him and MJD. Palmer was the choice for me, and not just by default. I have gone RB-RB for I dont know how long and it has not worked for me, so liking the depth at WR, I decided to go for Palmer. 5 more WRs went in Round 2, along with McGahee, Benson and Brady. Round 2 1 Peyton Manning 2 Steve Smith 3 Maurice Jones-Drew 4 Carson Palmer 5 Willis McGahee 6 Chad Johnson 7 Marvin Harrison 8 Torry Holt 9 Tom Brady 10 Terrell Owens 11 Roy Williams 12 Cedric Benson Round 3 started with Wayne. Then Brees, then. . . .Bulger. Then Fitzgerald, then. . . .Romo. Then things got back to normal: Boldin, R Brown then Driver leaving me with choosing between Caddillac and Edgerrian James. Improved coaching/OL had me choose James. And right now I am feeling good about Palmer - Bush - Edge as my starting 3. I have good luck with WRs late so I don't mind (much) that I have 0 in a league that starts 3. Adrian Peterson (the good one) went, then TJH, Deuce to close Round 3. Round 3 1 Reggie Wayne 2 Drew Brees 3 Marc Bulger 4 Larry Fitzgerald 5 Tony Romo 6 Anquan Boldin 7 Ronnie Brown 8 Donald Driver 9 Edgerrin James 10 Adrian Peterson 11 T.J. Houshmandzadeh 12 Deuce McAllister Randy Moss kicked off Round 4, then Portis and Lee Evans, who I had hoped would be my first WR picked. Which left me with the choice of Caddillac (in the 4th) or. . . not much. All the WRs at this point kind of meld together for me, so I took Caddy as my 3rd RB (we start 2). Round 4 1 Randy Moss 2 Clinton Portis 3 Lee Evans 4 Carnell Williams 5 Joey Galloway 6 Marques Colston 7 Andre Johnson 8 Antonio Gates 9 Thomas Jones 10 Javon Walker 11 Brandon Jacobs 12 Deion Branch So, I have no WRs thru Round 4, but some solid (IMO) RBs and a Top 3 QB. Round 5 1 Donovan McNabb 2 Ahman Green 3 Hines Ward 4 Braylon Edwards 5 Marion Barber III 6 Jon Kitna 7 Marshawn Lynch 8 Alge Crumpler 9 Reggie Brown 10 Jamal Lewis 11 Calvin Johnson 12 Santana Moss I ended up with WRs with my next 2 picks that have good upside when it was all said and done: 6. Bernard Berrian WR 7. Chris Chambers WR Then I snagged W Dunn in the 8th figuring if i need him more than the bye week, I got other problems. Backed up Palmer with Leinart (along with Kitna who went in Rd 5) in the 9th, who I had on my "target" list. Joe Horn was a good value pick in the 10th I thought with his ADP at 8.01. And let's face it, I need some WRs. L.J. smith in the 11th because they say I have to start a TE. Then I thought I would roll the dice on the 400 carry curse and draft Michael Bennett, followed by Chris Henry (the RB). Two RBs who have some upside. Green Bay Def and Josh Brown to kick and this one was in the books for me. 1 Reggie Bush RB 2 Carson Palmer QB 3 Edgerrin James RB 4 Carnell Williams RB 5 Reggie Brown WR 6 Bernard Berrian WR 7 Chris Chambers WR 8 Warrick Dunn RB 9 Matt Leinart QB 10 Joe Horn WR 11 L.J. Smith TE 12 Michael Bennett RB 13 Chris Henry RB 14 Green Bay DEF 15 Josh Brown K

Collusion/cheating is such a strong term. I think people have the right to be ill-informed and stupid. That being said, lets take a closer look at this: I agree with a previous poster that this trade, at its heart, is Harrison for Taylor. Not knowing what the other roster spots are, Jamal Lewis is not very valuable, IMO. Harrison has been underperforming so far and try as we might, he is NOT the best WR on IND anymore. He faces a tough Defense sched for WRs coming up, with only BUF in WK10 offering any soft opponent. AND, IND may be resting players during FF Playoffs. Jamal Lewis has a soft sched as well (CIN twice, TEN once), but with both M Smith and M Anderson (and injuries) he is not going to be a dominant factor, IMO. Taylor has a VERY easy scheduele coming up: After PHI, its TEN & HOU (VERY favorable), then NYG (without Arrington), then more marshmallows - BUF, MIA (tough), IND (who could be playoff bound by then and resting - see above), TEN again in Wk15 (Playoff Week) and then NE. Feely is flotsam/jetsom but he will get his share of FGss/PATs I think an argument can be made the 1st place team hurt itself for the Playoff run and the other team got a good RB with a favorable sched - giving it a chance to win.

<< How many participants? >> I think 12 team leagues allows for "sleepers" to be relevent and encourages active ownership thru trades and/or WW pickups. << Points-only, head-to-head, or a hybrid? >> Head to head. I fell that this type of league best reflects a "coach's perspective." Also, if you feel that Player Y will do well this week, then they will in all likelyhood be valuable in a points league as well. The reverse is not neccessarily true week to week. << Redrafter, keeper, or some other model? >> Redrafter. For the "average" team owner, they do not have the consitency in their leagues from year to year.

It would be great if it compiled CRANK scores suring the season based on your league's custom scoring. All the player data is there already. Maybe even evaluate trade offers mid season by looking at what was projected vs. actual and giving a "Future Value."

He was a RB I was high on going into the draft - a non-RBBC would could only improve over 2005's 2 TD performance. Week 1 was abyssmal, to say the least, but it seems CLE just abandoned their running game. Now there is talk that "Romeo Crennel has promised that Reuben will receive more than the paltry 11 carries he had in week one." If keeping QB Frye off a stretcher is in the game plan they NEED to use Droughns.

Miami is tempting with Big Ben out, but I will take SD and their 5-0 record against OAK in the last 5, including 3 wins in Oakland.

Antonio Bryant fits the Applying The Third-Year WR Theory year 2-5 WR "breakout candidate" profile. And is the #1 WR.

I have it: Droughns (which is good since I have him in my league. . .he could equal his TD total from 2005 in WK1) T Jones W Parker Lundy R Brown Foster Portis (if healthy, otherwise Duckett here) F Taylor

He was hurt though, and now that he is healthy, I can definelty see him as HOU #1 RB by Week 5 or so. Plus, only ~50% of DEN rushes (under Kubiak) in the red zone went to the #1 RB, so he will take some TDs from Lundy for sure. And DEN hardly ever passed to RB1 in the Red Zone (~14%). Sounds like a situation another team (rhymes with Mittsmurg) had last year. . . I just picked him up in my league.

I am in a 12 team league with the following starting roster slots: QB RB RB WR WR WR TE K DEF I drafted only 1 QB/TE/DEF/K so with the exception of the bye weeks I know who will be starting. At RB, the picture is also clear. It is at WR that I will be having to make choices. M Harrison is a no brainer every week, but what strategies do YOU use about deciding who fills the other 2 slots if you carry 5 other WRs on your roster - assuming all are healthy? Any URLs to articles or personal advice would be great. I have seen the Gut Check artilce which has these guidelines and tie breakers: Playing at home? Statistically best Strength of Sched? Best weather conditions? Previous high performance against opposing team? Healthy? But anything else is helpful.