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**NFL WEEK 10 GAMBLING**


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#1 listen2me 23

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Posted 11 November 2017 - 12:32 PM

​Chargers at Jaguars  -5.5  41

 

Bengals at Titans  -4.5  40.5

 

Steelers at Colts  +11.5  45

 

Saints at Bills  +3  48

 

Packers at Bears  -5.5  37.5

 

Jets at Bucs +2.5  43.5

 

Vikings at Redskins +1.5  40.5

 

Browns at Lions  -11  44

 

Texans at Rams  -12.5  45.5

 

Cowboys at Falcons  -3  48.5

 

Giants at 9ers  +2.5  42

 

Pats at Broncos  +8  44.5 

 

 



#2 listen2me 23

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Posted 11 November 2017 - 12:35 PM

Leans would be Buffalo, Bucs, and maybe the Broncos.

 

But not sure if I will play any or not.  



#3 WhiteWonder

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Posted 11 November 2017 - 01:34 PM

i already pushed on seattle -6

 

parlay Minny -1.5 and NE -7 (buy the half point). 

 

also wouldnt mind teasing those same two games along with Rams  -12.5 (they are -12 on my site)


Stuck in the process.....

 


#4 WhiteWonder

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Posted 11 November 2017 - 01:35 PM

would also do Viking and Pats individually ATS

 

mayyyybe Detroit ATS


Stuck in the process.....

 


#5 listen2me 23

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Posted 12 November 2017 - 10:18 AM

Bills +2.5

Bucs +2

 

Already locked and loaded.  May add more today.



#6 vuduchile

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Posted 12 November 2017 - 12:40 PM


Didn't get the Vikes bet down

I'm on the Bills and Browns right now.

#7 Gladiators

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Posted 12 November 2017 - 12:42 PM

I took the following to win: Packers, Browns, Chargers and Texans

#8 WhiteWonder

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Posted 12 November 2017 - 08:10 PM

Bills +2.5

Bucs +2

 

Already locked and loaded.  May add more today.

 

1-1 ATS, net loss. 


Stuck in the process.....

 


#9 WhiteWonder

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Posted 12 November 2017 - 08:12 PM

i already pushed on seattle -6

 

parlay Minny -1.5 and NE -7 (buy the half point). 

 

also wouldnt mind teasing those same two games along with Rams  -12.5 (they are -12 on my site)

 

 

would also do Viking and Pats individually ATS

 

mayyyybe Detroit ATS

 

 

we will see what New England does.  If they win by more than 7 I hit my parlay, teaser and ATS

 

already won ATS Vikings and ATS Lions and lost ATS Jets. 


Stuck in the process.....

 


#10 listen2me 23

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Posted 12 November 2017 - 08:16 PM

 
1-1 ATS, net loss. 


Correct

#11 listen2me 23

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Posted 12 November 2017 - 08:30 PM

 
1-1 ATS, net loss. 


If I would have parlayed them, then more of a net loss. Maff.

#12 vuduchile

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Posted 12 November 2017 - 09:11 PM

Didn't get the Vikes bet down

I'm on the Bills and Browns right now.


1-2 for the week and still have the Pats and fins ATS.

Still pissed I didn't get that Vikes bet down. I hate trying to do this on my phone. I miss having a human bookie.

#13 WhiteWonder

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Posted 12 November 2017 - 10:47 PM

If I would have parlayed them, then more of a net loss. Maff.

 

sorry i couldnt resist.  youve been so adamant about the poor juice on parlays, yet you admitted to basically wagering to try to break even on only ATS plays, which is like trying to break even at blackjack over a long period of time by never doubling down or splitting. 

 

if you made another ATS and lost, you lose more than a 3 team parlay. Maff. 

 

youd probably be a better gambler if you slightly expanded your wagering types is all im saying. 


Stuck in the process.....

 


#14 listen2me 23

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Posted 12 November 2017 - 11:00 PM

 

sorry i couldnt resist.  youve been so adamant about the poor juice on parlays, yet you admitted to basically wagering to try to break even on only ATS plays, which is like trying to break even at blackjack over a long period of time by never doubling down or splitting. 

 

if you made another ATS and lost, you lose more than a 3 team parlay. Maff. 

 

youd probably be a better gambler if you slightly expanded your wagering types is all im saying. 

I tease once in a while.  

 

I'd never parlay as it makes no sense to me.  

 

Ifs and maybes.  I made 2 plays.  If I parlay them I lose more. 

 

Maybe I would be a better gambler, I am hardly a pro.  But I have done well this year and it is documented in these threads.  A 1-1 week hardly killed me.  



#15 WhiteWonder

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 07:18 PM

I tease once in a while.  

 

I'd never parlay as it makes no sense to me.  

 

Ifs and maybes.  I made 2 plays.  If I parlay them I lose more. 

 

Maybe I would be a better gambler, I am hardly a pro.  But I have done well this year and it is documented in these threads.  A 1-1 week hardly killed me.  

 

 

to be fair i have no clue how youre doing because I havn't been popping into these threads all that much, Im just going based on our discussions in another thread (the one where i was looking for a new site, i think) where you were lecturing on ATS being the only way to play and parlays being bad because of the juice. Then you admitted to probably having lost more than youve won over your gambling lifetime (most people have) and saying that you generally just wager to try to break even and cash out. 

 

I guess my point is, sometimes you need to forget about the math and not let the extra juice sway you (the house always gets their cut) and just friggin gamble... take 2 teams you really like and parlay them. Yeah, you might lose lets say 10 dollars but you might win 24+, where as those same two teams bet individually ATS, youd have to put $20 on the line, and win both to win $18  (or in my case put 22 on the line to win 20 because thats how I wager on ATS).  And if you want a backstop to break even, take your absolute lock of the week and bet that ATS to cover any potential parlay loss. 


Stuck in the process.....

 


#16 WhiteWonder

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 07:19 PM

also im hardly a pro but its a lot more fun saying BAM, my three teams won and because I parlayed them I just won 65 dollars on a 10 dollar bet versus the $30 I would have won with $33 on the line.

 

and if i lose? I don't really lament the 10 dollar loss.

 

a bad day of ATS picks can get ugly in a hurry.


Stuck in the process.....

 


#17 listen2me 23

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 12:36 AM

 

 

to be fair i have no clue how youre doing because I havn't been popping into these threads all that much, Im just going based on our discussions in another thread (the one where i was looking for a new site, i think) where you were lecturing on ATS being the only way to play and parlays being bad because of the juice. Then you admitted to probably having lost more than youve won over your gambling lifetime (most people have) and saying that you generally just wager to try to break even and cash out. 

 

I guess my point is, sometimes you need to forget about the math and not let the extra juice sway you (the house always gets their cut) and just friggin gamble... take 2 teams you really like and parlay them. Yeah, you might lose lets say 10 dollars but you might win 24+, where as those same two teams bet individually ATS, youd have to put $20 on the line, and win both to win $18  (or in my case put 22 on the line to win 20 because thats how I wager on ATS).  And if you want a backstop to break even, take your absolute lock of the week and bet that ATS to cover any potential parlay loss. 

I may have mentioned it a few times but I'm pretty sure you and gobbledog were the ones going back and forth a ton.  

 

I have hardly lectured anyone on how to bet (although maybe I forgot) I usually just let it be known that I think parlaying is bad betting long term.  And that there is a reason why newbies and very casual betters prefer them.  They are attractive and cheaper to play.  

 

To me parlaying just adds one more layer to the sheer luck that is involved.  When do you know when to parlay vs. when to go straight up?  Or is it a totally random add on?  Like the 2 plays I had this week...I went 1-1....if I bet parlays and ATS would I have parlayed them?  When would I know?  What if I went back over the year and saw a lost a lot of 2-1 weeks because I made 3 team parlays out of those weeks?  To me adding one more layer and random wrench into the already random event that is NFL gambling....decreases your odds at least a little.  

 

I'm in no way bashing anyone on how they go about betting or telling you how to bet.  But in a gambling thread full of opinions...I guess I will give my opinion on how I bet and what I think works.  People can win, especially in small periods, with any method.  But in my experience, I have always heard or read that parlays are poor odds.  And the math works out.  Albeit, not a huge fraction when looking through casual gambler glasses.  But to a career gambler, that fraction means a ton over the long term.  Any decent gambler I know or have read play ATS, O/U, and some teasers (and actually the juicy 10pt 3 team teasers).  I have never really read or heard of pro NFL gamblers using parlays.  I have seen good handicappers using parlays to cross sports, especially sports like Boxing, MMA, soccer....betting money lines.  But never seen one throw a 3 team NFL parlay out there feeling like they have so much an edge to hit all 3.  I guess maybe I have seen a parlay of the O/U and Point Spread of the same game, if they feel they have a serious edge in say late injury or weather.  

 

When I first started throwing bets on the NFL I had the mindset you have.  And I had some beginners luck the first 2 years before I learned my lesson.  I figured just pick winner.  I felt I know the NFL pretty well and just pick winners.  And sometimes I was confident in 2 or 3 that I would parlay since I was greedy.  But I saw casual gamblers and how they do things and good gamblers and how they do things, much in part because one of my friends was my 1st bookie.  A couple of my friends who are as square  as it gets have one thing in common....they have to feel good about the team they are betting.  I know that sounds stupid.  But they would not pick a bad team.  They would avoid close lines when the teams looked even.  They would need to bet on Brady, Big Ben, Drew Brees, Favre, Manning.  When they were really losing they would resort to teasers and would ALWAYS tease the -7 or -6 favorite down to -1 or pk-- as the bookie then would only take 6pt teasers.  So to me it just looked like they only wanted to place bets on the very square side as it made them feel good before they consistently lost their ass and couldn't understand why.   

 

And I have always said this, it all depends what you are in it for.  I'm not really trying to make a ton of money.  I'm not one of those 24hr casino guys thinking he has an edge and can make a living.  But I am around twice as many wins as losses right now.  Probably up around 500 bucks.  But I have had a good year to this point.  I may have screwed it up returning to betting last week.  I took a few weeks off.  I try not to bet just to bet.  If I don't really like something, I'd rather not bet, which I have worked on over the last few years.  



#18 listen2me 23

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 12:40 AM

Then you admitted to probably having lost more than youve won over your gambling lifetime (most people have) and saying that you generally just wager to try to break even and cash out. 

 

 

Probably, sure.  Like you said most people have lost if they could add all their net gambling.  I had a couple rough years when I didn't know what I was doing.  Or else I probably couldn't definitively say that. 

 

But I am not sure where you got the last part about trying to break even.  Not sure why I would say that.   I don't bet on the internet anymore and really don't keep good track of m bets.  I either pay or get paid each Wednesday.  Really have no idea what you mean with that part.



#19 listen2me 23

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 12:52 AM

also im hardly a pro but its a lot more fun saying BAM, my three teams won and because I parlayed them I just won 65 dollars on a 10 dollar bet versus the $30 I would have won with $33 on the line.

 

and if i lose? I don't really lament the 10 dollar loss.

 

a bad day of ATS picks can get ugly in a hurry.

 

This is just not my way of going about betting.  I do it for entertainment, as I am not a fool in thinking I'm going to make serious coin on it.  I'm not putting up the coin to even make a ton.  But if I am betting to make """"funner"""" bets then I probably shouldn't be betting.  

 

I have bet NFL off and on for 10 years.  You have bad days.  You have good days.  If I am afraid of losing then I am not going to be making good bets.  I learned that through losing.  If you are making bets off of feeling warm and fuzzy about the side you are taking, then you are probably forcing bets.   When I was 20 years old there is no way in hell I would bet on the Browns no matter the spread.  Now it doesn't really matter what team, value is value.  That's why it is ATS.   Of course I knew this at 20 year old, but I had to feel warm and fuzzy about the side to even consider the side.    



#20 nobody

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 09:52 AM

Parlays suck. The only time i would even consider a parlay is if it's correlated or if I'm throwing in a heavy favorite moneyline to increase the odds slightly.

#21 WhiteWonder

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 12:08 PM

Parlays suck. The only time i would even consider a parlay is if it's correlated or if I'm throwing in a heavy favorite moneyline to increase the odds slightly.


I do that often.

Stuck in the process.....

 


#22 WhiteWonder

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 12:10 PM

I may have mentioned it a few times but I'm pretty sure you and gobbledog were the ones going back and forth a ton.  
   


If this I true then ignore everything I've said. For some reason I thought it was you :D

Stuck in the process.....

 


#23 WhiteWonder

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Posted 15 November 2017 - 09:46 PM

:lol:  I know this is an NFL thread not NBA but I felt really good about the Wiards +1 on the road against Miami. +1 seemed weird, so i checked the lineups to make sure Wall or Beal were not sitting. They were not so I bet that game ATS and since I felt like it was a lock, I threw $10 on the following.....

 


 

PARLAY [4 TEAMS]

Wizards +1

Knicks -4

Cavaliers -1

Pistons +4.5

 

$10 to win $120.08

 

  :banana:

 

Almost went with Detroit ML +150 but it wasn't a big enough increase in winnings so I took the points. Glad I did!, they lost 99-95....  Also, oddly enough, the other two games I liked also hit (T-Wolves and Pacers) 

 

 

Very much dumb luck although those were some really nice point spreads. I generally stay away from most NBA spreads. I might make 1 wager on a given night on an ATS that seems reasonable but there are so many swings in NBA scoring that you could take a big favorite laying 7, be up by 15 with 2 minutes left and easily lose versus the spread. Just last night freaking Joe Harris of the Nets hit a 3 with 2 seconds left to push my Celtics -7 wager. 


 



 

Stuck in the process.....